Jurassic World: Dominion | June 10 2022 | 6th Most Profitable Movie of 2023

[Eric Lasagna]

I'm sorry, can somebody please point to me the people who are "underestimating" this? Last I checked, there are people adamant this will be the biggest movie of the summer, and destined to be in the top 5 domestically at the very least.

 

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

I'm sorry, can somebody please point to me the people who are "underestimating" this? Last I checked, there are people adamant this will be the biggest movie of the summer, and destined to be in the top 5 domestically at the very least.

 

 

On 2/11/2022 at 2:32 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

125M OW. 350 full.

 

On 2/11/2022 at 4:30 PM, Juby said:

 

I see $120-125 mln OW / $335 mln domestic

 

On 2/12/2022 at 11:09 AM, wintersoldier2021 said:

Domestically this makes 400 million tops while strange will clear 450 easily

 

On 2/14/2022 at 4:07 PM, CJohn said:

This ain't beating Doctor Strange.

 

On 2/16/2022 at 4:48 AM, dudalb said:

No way.

IYou won't see as many films get that big a opening as you used to.

And I suspect even without the covid impact, this would not do much above 100 Million opening. it just does not have that must see quality you need for a huge opening.

 

 

[Brainbug]

Though @Eric Says Trans Rights im fully aware that this time around a lot more people seem to be positive regarding this movies chances for a big success. I remember vividly that before Fallen Kingdom came out there were way more pessimists, this time not so much.

[Bigscrubnus]

40 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Though @Eric Says Trans Rights im fully aware that this time around a lot more people seem to be positive regarding this movies chances for a big success. I remember vividly that before Fallen Kingdom came out there were way more pessimists, this time not so much.

Yeah, it seems like a lot of people learned their lesson from last time, it’s just that there seems to be a pocket of people that are adamant that the GA has a burning hatred for this franchise.

 

it’s much worse on the box office subreddit, where polling shows that 20-30% there think it won’t break a billion.

 

edit: BTW does anyone follow the quorum? They do audience interest polling. The same kind of polling box office analysts use for their predictions. But you can actually view the data this time.

 

Dominion is a MONSTER according to their polling. At like 80 days out it is the top of their charts for upcoming movies. Easily beating out Strange despite the fact that it comes out like 20 days earlier.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Bigscrubnus

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Yeah, it seems like a lot of people learned their lesson from last time, it’s just that there seems to be a pocket of people that are adamant that the GA has a burning hatred for this franchise.

 

it’s much worse on the box office subreddit, where polling shows that 20-30% there think it won’t break a billion.

 

Atleast on the BOT forums here, there are no such people. There were some around when JW and JW:FK came out, but atleast I have not seen any posts containing the argument that the GA somehow hates the franchise on these forums here for years.

 

There are some who are just more cautious about the box office and predict lower numbers. Thats certainly not a burning hatred.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Lots of people sleeping on this. Somehow the lessons they were supposed to have learned in 2015 and 2017 haven’t sunk in yet. Maybe third time’s the charm?

 

kinda shocked Charlie has it as low as they do, do they have any specific reasoning?

This far out there isn't much to reason about, Charlie is just low on the film probably due to not really liking these movies. 

46 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Yeah, it seems like a lot of people learned their lesson from last time, it’s just that there seems to be a pocket of people that are adamant that the GA has a burning hatred for this franchise.

 

it’s much worse on the box office subreddit, where polling shows that 20-30% there think it won’t break a billion.

 

edit: BTW does anyone follow the quorum? They do audience interest polling. The same kind of polling box office analysts use for their predictions. But you can actually view the data this time.

 

Dominion is a MONSTER according to their polling. At like 80 days out it is the top of their charts for upcoming movies. Easily beating out Strange despite the fact that it comes out like 20 days earlier.

I think Dominion will beat Strange comfortably, but I do think Strange will be underindexed by that sort of metric. Strange doesn't necessarily have the GA awareness and interest of the JW movies but the movie has a very strong draw for its particular fanbase, which will help boost it. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think Dominion will beat Strange comfortably, but I do think Strange will be underindexed by that sort of metric. Strange doesn't necessarily have the GA awareness and interest of the JW movies but the movie has a very strong draw for its particular fanbase, which will help boost it. 

 

Doctor Strange feels to me like a smaller-scale No Way Home in the sense that its not "only" a Doctor Strange film, or the next MCU movie but a sort of event for MCU fans in general that could be very interesting even for those fans who maybe arent that into Strange as a character. No Way Home itself, because Strange plays a rather big role in that film, could help it immensely since 800M+ dollars worth of people saw it.

 

Im really hoping for Strange kicking of the summer movie season with a 500M+ gross and Dominion coming close to the first JW' success later in June.

[Bigscrubnus]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

This far out there isn't much to reason about, Charlie is just low on the film probably due to not really liking these movies. 

I think Dominion will beat Strange comfortably, but I do think Strange will be underindexed by that sort of metric. Strange doesn't necessarily have the GA awareness and interest of the JW movies but the movie has a very strong draw for its particular fanbase, which will help boost it. 

Strange is actually doing very well in the polling. A 6.5/10 for a movie that’s like 40 days out is great. It’s just that Dominion is doing obscenely well. A 7/10 at like 75 days out is unprecedented for the quorum. The only other movies that even broke the 7 mark at all were no way home and the Batman.

 

keep in mind the data only goes back to early 2021. But the fact that it’s pulling similar numbers to NWH on release day at 75 days out is incredible.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Bigscrubnus
Typo

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Strange is actually doing very well in the polling. A 6.5/10 for a movie that’s like 40 days out is great. It’s just that Dominion is doing obscenely well. A 7/10 at like 75 days out is unprecedented for the quorum. The only other movies that even broke the 7 mark at all were no way home and the Batman.

 

keep in mind the data only goes back to early 2021. But the fact that it’s pulling similar numbers to NWH on release day at 75 days out is incredible.

I think the Quorum score is under Batman at the same point though, I would consider that to be a disappointing opening for the film. 

 

Although I guess another way to look at it is the Quorum scores are better than NWH at the same point...just goes to show how noisy this sort of tracking data is. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[XXR vs XXR]

Quorom is not something that should be paid attention.

[Bigscrubnus]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think the Quorum score is under Batman at the same point though, I would consider that to be a disappointing opening for the film. 

 

Although I guess another way to look at it is the Quorum scores are better than NWH at the same point...just goes to show how noisy this sort of tracking data is. 

It’s not under the Batman though. At no point in its tracking did The Batman get above a 7. At 75 days out it was a 6.5

[Bigscrubnus]

2 hours ago, KnucklesXXR said:

Quorom is not something that should be paid attention.

Whys that? They’ve been pretty reliable so far from my experience 

 

Edit: sorry for double posting, still getting used to this forum format

Edited March 28, 2022 by Bigscrubnus

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Bigscrubnus said:

It’s not under the Batman though. At no point in its tracking did The Batman get above a 7. At 75 days out it was a 6.5

I believe Batman was 6.6 at the same point and had significantly higher awareness. 

[Brainbug]

Anyway if it wasnt obvious already i will stan this movie hard and i am very sorry if im already beeing insufferable to some people here because that will only get worse when June is finally here.

 

Also, if anyone wants to join the best club possible right now, here is some shameless advertisement:

 

 

[Bigscrubnus]

Confirmed for China release

 

https://m.weibo.cn/status/Lm8Q7cMTZ?jumpfrom=weibocom

[Brainbug]

3 hours ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Confirmed for China release

 

https://m.weibo.cn/status/Lm8Q7cMTZ?jumpfrom=weibocom

 

If thats official, thats obviously good for its international gross. Though i confess i havent followed the Chinese Box office enough to know if this means only a limited kind of release or a truly wide release. Maybe someone who knows this way better @Gavin Feng @Olive could explain it, but China seems to not allow some Hollywood movies in the last few years to enter the market.

[Bigscrubnus]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

If thats official, thats obviously good for its international gross. Though i confess i havent followed the Chinese Box office enough to know if this means only a limited kind of release or a truly wide release. Maybe someone who knows this way better @Gavin Feng @Olive could explain it, but China seems to not allow some Hollywood movies in the last few years to enter the market.

That’s the official universal Weibo account. It’s happening

[ZeeSoh]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

If thats official, thats obviously good for its international gross. Though i confess i havent followed the Chinese Box office enough to know if this means only a limited kind of release or a truly wide release. Maybe someone who knows this way better @Gavin Feng @Olive could explain it, but China seems to not allow some Hollywood movies in the last few years to enter the market.

Having an approval and getting an actual release date are different things. I think that some of the Marvel movies also got approval for release but never got any release dates. That being said, China seems to be having a problem only with Marvel right now, so I don't see this having any issue getting a release date. 

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Having an approval and getting an actual release date are different things. I think that some of the Marvel movies also got approval for release but never got any release dates. That being said, China seems to be having a problem only with Marvel right now, so I don't see this having any issue getting a release date. 

 

Is there a known/official reason why they have a problem with Marvel movies? I dont want to derail the thread ofc, just asking out of interest. 

[ZeeSoh]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Is there a known/official reason why they have a problem with Marvel movies? I dont want to derail the thread ofc, just asking out of interest. 

No official reason given and unlikely ever to be given. But its pretty much the 1-2 punch of Shang Chi (Simu Liu's comments as well as the villains troubled comic counterpart) and Eternals (Chloe Zhao's comments). They have become extra sensitive as of late (evidenced by their crackdown on a lot of cultural stuff, actors, etc over the past 2 years). They even cancelled Keanu Reeves few days ago 

 

Some people say SH movies were getting too influential over there but they have not banned any non Marvel SH movies. Some people say they want their movies to dominate global box office which is why they are banning Marvel movies so that Marvel movies are not at the top of the list. But I think its because of Shang Chi and Eternals really. How long this unofficial boycott remains in place is unknown but it will eventually go away (though it could take months or years). Disney needs Bob Iger to take a trip to China again