Porthos Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Krissykins said: 50% drops forever gets Wrinkle In Time to $95.5m. Wonder what’ll happen. I think it might get better than 50% drops. It had a better post-Easter Tuesday jump (+6.16%) than Cinderella 2015 (-2.4%) and BatB (-19.8%). Now BatB is a little off since the relevant post-Easter Tuesday came later in its run (April 18), but AWiT might be developing late legs. If AWiT has the same week to week drop for both Wed and Thr as it did for yesterday (-28%), that gives it a weekly drop of approx 34% (8.4 from 12.7). That's fairly comparable to Cinderella's Week Four drop of -32.2% (which was also had Easter Weekend in it). AWiT also had comparable drops to Cinderella in Week Two (AWiT: -52% v C2015: -48.6%) and Week Three (AWiT: -40.4% vs C2015: -45.6%). Here's the rest of Cinderella's Weekly drops: Quote Apr 10–16 5 $8,904,287 -46.3% 3,025 -379 $2,944 $182,453,013 5 Apr 17–23 10 $5,341,417 -40.0% 2,414 -611 $2,213 $187,794,430 6 Apr 24–30 12 $3,498,940 -34.5% 2,019 -395 $1,733 $191,293,370 7 May 1–7 7 $3,299,049 -5.7% 1,411 -608 $2,338 $194,592,419 8 May 8–14 9 $2,007,132 -39.2% 1,034 -377 $1,941 $196,599,551 9 May 15–21 12 $842,895 -58.0% 641 -393 $1,315 $197,442,446 10 May 22–28 15 $665,399 -21.1% 356 -285 $1,869 $198,107,845 11 May 29–Jun 4 20 $371,039 -44.2% 249 -107 $1,490 $198,478,884 12 Jun 5–11 20 $539,328 +45.4% 302 +53 $1,786 $199,018,212 13 Jun 12–18 18 $470,381 -12.8% 302 - $1,558 $199,488,593 14 Jun 19–25 19 $536,920 +14.1% 275 -27 $1,952 $200,025,513 15 Jun 26–Jul 2 21 $447,076 -16.7% 203 -72 $2,202 $200,472,589 16 Jul 3–9 27 $211,878 -52.6% 175 -28 $1,211 $200,684,467 17 Jul 10–16 33 $116,892 -44.8% 127 -48 $920 $200,801,359 18 Jul 17–23 36 $93,750 -19.8% 104 -23 $901 $200,895,109 19 Jul 24–30 41 $54,049 -42.3% 70 -34 $772 $200,949,158 20 Jul 31–Aug 6 43 $65,397 +21.0% 64 -6 $1,022 $201,014,555 21 Aug 7–13 56 $32,267 -50.7% 52 -12 $621 $201,046,822 22 Aug 14–20 60 $26,644 -17.4% 45 -7 $592 $201,073,466 23 Aug 21–27 65 $18,224 -31.6% 35 -10 $521 $201,091,690 24 Aug 28–Sep 3 63 $24,520 +34.5% 34 -1 $721 $201,116,210 25 Sep 4–10 69 $23,846 -2.7% 30 -4 $795 $201,140,056 26 Sep 11–17 73 $11,297 -52.6% 26 -4 $435 $201,151,353 27 If AWiT follows those weekly drops exactly (which it won't, but let's just play along) from a mooted 8.4 Week Four it gets 13.98m more after this coming Thur. That would give it a final total of 100.9m, give or take. Now I don't know what caused Cinderella 2015 to get those weekly drops, but that might be a Best Case Scenario for AWiT given that the film was released in a relatively similar calendar placement and it has Easter around the same time. Not predicting it, no. Laying out a very optimistic scenario? Well... Edited April 4, 2018 by Porthos 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 @WrathOfHan based off your weekend projection, will we see BP eclipsing Titanic's domestic gross on Friday or Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 WiT is starting to look like it may be in good shape to hit 100 after all. Starting to pull significantly ahead of Tomorrowland through the same point with a comparable Tuesday gross almost twice as big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, sfran43 said: @WrathOfHan based off your weekend projection, will we see BP eclipsing Titanic's domestic gross on Friday or Saturday? Saturday after being within 100k on Friday Edited April 4, 2018 by WrathOfHan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: RPO: 5.4M (+3%) 4M (-26%) 3.8M (-6%) 7.4M (+95%) 11.5M (+55%) 7.4M (-36%) 26.3M Weekend, 37% drop BP: 1.7M (+2%) 1.3M (-25%) 1.2M (-6%) 2.5M (+105%) 4.3M (+70%) 2.8M (-34%) 8.6M Weekend, 25% drop Given that there were increases today, I won't be surprised if the Wednesday drops are 1-3% higher than normal. 2.5+4.3+2.8 is 9.6 Those daily numbers look look pretty good to me though. I guess my forecast would be something like: 1.2 1.2 2.5 4 2.7 which would still be 9.2. Edited April 4, 2018 by Sliver Legion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 If BP can hit at least 1.1m next Monday, which I think is possible, then it can potentially extend its consecutive 1m daily streak to 59 days. Amazingly, TFA stopped at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
setna Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 44 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: If BP can hit at least 1.1m next Monday, which I think is possible, then it can potentially extend its consecutive 1m daily streak to 59 days. Amazingly, TFA stopped at 45. Next monday will be day 53 th, guessing on tuesday go up, on wednesday will fall under 1 million, that is day 55 th....anyway, i´m agree is exceptional, beating Avengers that was 52 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3d is most likely at its lowest due to piracy people must like to pirate those 3d films and watch them without the glasses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 18 minutes ago, setna said: Next monday will be day 53 th, guessing on tuesday go up, on wednesday will fall under 1 million, that is day 55 th....anyway, i´m agree is exceptional, beating Avengers that was 52 days... It could stay above 1m on Wednesday if it hits at least $1.1m on Monday based on its typical Monday to Wednesday drops. It has dropped 4-6% Monday to Wednesday for the past 3 weeks (this week doesn't count since Monday was inflated). Edited April 4, 2018 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said: 3d is most likely at its lowest due to piracy people must like to pirate those 3d films and watch them without the glasses Except for niche stuff like Goodbye to language did we ever got a mainstream 3d films they are all made to be fully watchable in 2D I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svenson Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 RP1 should be watched in 3D. Its absolutely stunning in the Oasis scenes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcf26 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) Nevermind.. I don't know how to paste here..lol Edited April 5, 2018 by bcf26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LonePirate Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) A Wrinkle in Time flirting with $100M is going to be the most interesting thing to watch numbers-wise in the next few weeks. On some days, it seems like it has enough gas left in the tank to cross that milestone. Then on other days, it seems like it will fizzle out just shy of the mark. I am inclined to think Disney will do whatever it takes to push it over. It should be a nail biter, though. Edited April 5, 2018 by LonePirate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 A Wrinkle in Time wont have many locations left in 2 weeks time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said: A Wrinkle in Time wont have many locations left in 2 weeks time. It's a family film, it doesn't need a lot of theaters left to keep grossing for weeks. It still has another weekend to play in a decent amount of theaters. If it can get to 95m within two weeks, it should be able to add another $5m or so playing <700 screens for the rest of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: It's a family film, it doesn't need a lot of theaters left to keep grossing for weeks. It still has another weekend to play in a decent amount of theaters. If it can get to 95m within two weeks, it should be able to add another $5m or so playing <700 screens for the rest of its run. about 10,000 new theater counts will be coming in this weekend. The best you will get is probably subtracting about 8,000 of the theater counts from this past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said: A Wrinkle in Time wont have many locations left in 2 weeks time. In the current Top Ten AWiT has a better weekday PTA than: Sherlock Gnomes (Tue only) Tomb Raider Pacific Rim: Uprising Love, Simon Paul, Apostle of Christ. Also a higher PTA than Peter Rabbit which still has 1,667 theaters and is currently outside the Top Ten. This past weekend, it had a better PTA than: Sherlock Gnomes Tomb Raider and was $300 behind Love, Simon and Paul, Apostle for Christ. Admittedly it was about $500 behind PR:U this past weekend, but the weekdays aren't painting a pretty picture for PR:U going forward. So, yes, AWiT will lose a lot of theaters and screens. But there's a lot of movies making less for theaters currently that will also be on the chopping block. I think Peter Rabbit is gonna get slaughtered (finally ) since two other family friendly film options are out there. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Gnomes get a slightly worse hit than AWiT since AWiT is out performing it on most metrics. edit: Mon/Tue PTA for Top Twelve, sorted by Tue PTA: Title # of Theaters Mon Tue 1 READY PLAYER ONE (4234) $1,238 $1,274 2 TYLER PERRY'S ACRIMONY (2006) $849 $952 4 I CAN ONLY IMAGINE (2648) $537 $611 3 BLACK PANTHER (2988) $547 $558 7 A WRINKLE IN TIME (2367) $411 $436 5 SHERLOCK GNOMES (3662) $440 $416 10 PAUL, APOSTLE OF CHRIST (1473) $309 $370 9 LOVE, SIMON (2024) $383 $369 6 PACIFIC RIM UPRISING (3708) $314 $344 8 TOMB RAIDER (2788) $239 $275 12 PETER RABBIT (1667) $301 $231 11 GOD'S NOT DEAD 3 (1693) $165 $230 AWiT will get a hit. But I don't think a terminal one quite yet. Edited April 5, 2018 by Porthos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) Just did a check of my local theaters. AWiT is currently playing in 15 theaters right now and will be dropped in 5 of them on Friday, leaving it in 10 theaters locally. For comparison, looks like Peter Rabbit will be down to 6 theaters locally come this weekend. So if it isn't on the chopping block yet I don't think AWiT will be quite yet, either. (FWIW, Gnomes will be in 9 theaters locally ) edited it's also possible that some theaters haven't finalized their slates for next week, so those numbers might still go up when all is said and done. Edited April 5, 2018 by Porthos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) looks like A Wrinkle in Time should only loose about 1/3 locations at the most. Mon Tues + Weds Thurs - Fri - Sat - Sun (2,367) - A Wrinkle in Time - $411 $436 + $276 $280 - $420 + $630 + $400 (-800) (1,567) - A Wrinkle in Time - $1,450 PTA - 2.27 weekend Edited April 5, 2018 by Thematrixfilm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...