Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[That One Girl]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

How do you know xXx won't get a sequel?

 

It’s been almost a year and a half since it got released and I haven’t heard anything regarding it.  If it does happen, it’ll be in the form of another reboot more than likely

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Outdated? Sorry I don’t buy that 

In the sense the concept never existed since Television become popular in the first place or ?

 

What would the concept of breaking even in theater alone mean exactly (no one ever put what the equation they use) and what would it represent ?

 

That was Sony 2006 to 2014 released movies total sources of revenues and expenses breakdown:

 

Amount are in thousand of dollar. 
Source of revenue                Amount            %
Domestic Theatrical             5,359,831        18%
Intl theatrical                 4,896,173        17%
DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE       7,151,339        24%
DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE     591,133         2%
INTL HOME ENT REVENUE           3,167,917        11%
INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE         173,369         1%
DOMESTIC TV PPV REVENUE           263,639         1%
DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE         1,656,035         6%
DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE        1,088,838         4%
INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION        4,659,861        16%
AIRLINES AND MUSIC                217,513         1%
CONSUMER PRODUCTS REVENUE         270,395         1%

Total                    $29,496,043

 

Source of expense         Total             %
DTH MARKETING            (5,866,385) $    21%
DTH PRINTS COS             (871,294) $     3%
DTH WPF DUES OTHER COS     (340,165) $     1%
ITH MARKETING            (2,601,562) $     9%
ITH PRINTS (COS)         (1,062,961) $     4%
ITH WPF,,,ER (COS)         (270,762) $     1%
DHE MARKETING            (1,044,398) $     4%
DHE RELEASING COSTS      (1,280,725) $     5%
IHE MARKETING              (486,013) $     2%
IHE RELEASING COSTS        (820,764) $     3%
TV MARKETING                (43,802) $     0%
TV OTHER COSTS COS          (68,834) $     0%
DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS   9,256,003) $    33%
OVERHEAD                   (808,450) $     3%
PARTICIPATIONS           (2,234,617) $     8%
RESIDUALS                (1,024,544) $     4%

Total                   (28,081,279) $   100%

 

Theatrical was 35% of the revenues in average and the average movie make less in domestic ticket rental than what it cost to release it domestic, how many movies make a profit when looking at just 35% of their revenues and what would it mean in particular ? Why even bring that special metric, I do not remember anyone ever giving an explication ?

 

International TV (4,659,861) was much bigger that the total profits made of 1.4b, that were most movie make all their profits if they ever make one not before that.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Barnack

[John Marston]

Also f Tomb Raider has been a really low budget movie like The Maze Runner then a sequel would be guaranteed. 

[MikeQ]

Terrific for A Quiet Place - with estimates, it looks to have the second best opening for an original horror film (behind only The Village).

 

There is always disagreement of what qualifies as “horror” or not, but going by BOM’s classifications (and adding the recent ‘Split’ which BOM for whatever reason defines as “Horror Thriller” and doesn’t include in its listed horror genre categories), here are the largest opening weekends for horror films that I can find. I’m open to suggestions of what I’m missing (there may be other large opening horror films that would make this top 25, but I’m forgetting because BOM designates it in an unlisted horror genre like it did for ‘Split’).

 

Additionally, some might argue Van Helsing isn’t horror (IMDB classifies it as “Action, Adventure, Fantasy”). Others might argue that Hannibal (58M opening), Red Dragon ($36.5M opening), and The Silence of the Lambs (though it wouldn’t make this list with a 13.8M opening) are all horror (IMDB classifies all of them as “Crime, Drama, Thriller”). Where do people (and horror buffs) typically stand on this - should Hannibal and Red Dragon be included in a list of best horror openings? Should Van Helsing qualify as horror? Anything else I'm missing?

 

But without getting too technical, it’s clear that regardless of classification, A Quiet Place’s opening weekend is exceptionally good for an original horror film.

 

Edit: Added films BOM designates as "Sci-fi Horror", which includes I Am Legend (77.2M), Signs (60.1M opening), Prometheus (51.1M), Alien vs. Predator (38.3M), The Purge (34.1M), and finally War of the Worlds (64.9M) - the last of which I wouldn't personally think of as "horror", but for consistency sake and for sake of discussion, am including in the list. Interesting to think about this kind of stuff, and where disagreements arise.

 

Largest Horror Film Opening Weekends

 

1. It (2017) — 123.4 million
2. I Am Legend (2007) — 77.2 million
3. War of the Worlds (2005) — 64.9 million
4. Signs (2002) — 60.1 million
5. Paranormal Activity 3 (2011) — 52.6 million
6. Van Helsing (2004) — 51.7 million
7. Prometheus (2012) — 51.1 million
8. The Village (2004) — 50.7 million
9. A Quiet Place (2018) — 50.0 million
10. The Conjuring (2013) — 41.9 million
11. Shutter Island (2010) — 41.1 million
12. Paranormal Activity 2 (2010) — 40.7 million
13. Friday the 13th (2009) — 40.6 million
14. The Conjuring 2 (2016) — 40.4 million
15. Insidious Chapter 2 (2013) — 40.3 million
16. Split (2017) — 40.0 million
17. The Grudge (2004) — 39.1 million
18. Alien vs. Predator (2004) — 38.3 million
19. Annabelle (2014) — 37.1 million
20. Freddy vs. Jason (2003) — 36.4 million
21. Interview with the Vampire (1994) — 36.4 million
22. Alien: Covenant (2017) — 36.2 million
23. The Ring Two (2005) — 35.1 million
24. Annabelle: Creation (2017) — 35.0 million
25. Scream 3 (2000) — 34.7 million
26. The Purge (2013) — 34.1 million
27. The Devil Inside (2012) — 33.7 million
28. Saw III (2006) — 33.6 million
29. The Haunting (1999) — 33.4 million 
30. Get Out (2017) — 33.4 million
31. Scream 2 (1997) — 32.9 million

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited April 8, 2018 by MikeQ

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, svenson said:

It had a budget of 100-110 million it made 179 million WW. Hardly a good comparison. Of course they pulled the plug with that one.

It is the point that what seems like a sure bet going in doesn't always pan out.... Of course Divergent has other issues, the lower box-office being the least of it's worries LOL.

 

A 2nd Tomb Raider in this new version will drop in gross across the board - there is no real incentive to make another one without halving the budget and that won't happen.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Good grief - I despise that the world has gotten so "black & white." I am not a hater for pointing out the fact that chances are relatively slim for Tomb Raider to get a sequel. I haven't even seen the film yet for crying out loud. That is one of the reasons that uber stan / fanboys on this forum are so annoying - you can disagree about the relative nature of a film's future without hating on the film.

 

Also - Considering that Divergent was left unfinished, in our day and age no sequel is ever guaranteed.

 

Finally - the 3x WW stuff is for discussion purposes, not hard evidence. Plenty of films do not make actual profit from theatrical and it is one of the reasons that we have seen such a dogged shift to the world wide focus from the strictly domestic one. I think some of yall woke up with your radars tuned to "cranky" today.

Like I said,  it definitely comes down to profit. There's valid reason to believe TR could have turned a nice profit given its budget to WW gross ratio, but as you said it's not hard evidence. If there is a nice profit though, I don't know why the sequel wouldn't get made. The movie was literally made with the intention of leading directly into a sequel. It's a different thing than a movie made with sequel potential, but let's wait and see how it does kind of thing. It was clearly already planned for TR to have a sequel when  they made this one, so that's why if it also turned a profit it wouldn't make much sense for it not to happen. 

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Terrific for A Quiet Place - with estimates, it looks to have the second best opening for an original horror film (behind only The Village).

 

There is always disagreement of what qualifies as “horror” or not, but going by BOM’s classifications (and adding the recent ‘Split’ which BOM for whatever reason defines as “Horror Thriller” and doesn’t include in its listed horror genre categories), here are the largest opening weekends for horror films that I can find. I’m open to suggestions of what I’m missing (there may be other large opening horror films that would make this top 25, but I’m forgetting because BOM designates it in an unlisted horror genre like it did for ‘Split’).

 

Additionally, some might argue Van Helsing isn’t horror (IMDB classifies it as “Action, Adventure, Fantasy”). Others might argue that Hannibal (58M opening), Red Dragon ($36.5M opening), and The Silence of the Lambs (though it wouldn’t make this list with a 13.8M opening) are all horror (IMDB classifies all of them as “Crime, Drama, Thriller”). Where do people (and horror buffs) typically stand on this - should Hannibal and Red Dragon be included in a list of best horror openings?

 

But without getting too technical, it’s clear that regardless of classification, A Quiet Place’s opening weekend is exceptionally good for an original horror film.

 

Largest Horror Film Opening Weekends

 

1. It (2017) — 123.4 million
2. Paranormal Activity 3 (2011) — 52.6 million
3. Van Helsing (2004) — 51.7 million
4. The Village (2004) — 50.7 million
5. A Quiet Place (2018) — 50.0 million
6. The Conjuring (2013) — 41.9 million
7. Shutter Island (2010) — 41.1 million
8. Paranormal Activity 2 (2010) — 40.7 million
9. Friday the 13th (2009) — 40.6 million
10. The Conjuring 2 (2016) — 40.4 million
11. Insidious Chapter 2 (2013) — 40.3 million
12. Split (2017) — 40.0 million
13. The Grudge (2004) — 39.1 million
14. Annabelle (2014) — 37.1 million
15. Freddy vs. Jason (2003) — 36.4 million
16. Interview with the Vampire (1994) — 36.4 million
17. Alien: Covenant (2017) — 36.2 million
18. The Ring Two (2005) — 35.1 million
19. Annabelle: Creation (2017) — 35.0 million
20. Scream 3 (2000) — 34.7 million
21. The Devil Inside (2012) — 33.7 million
22. Saw III (2006) — 33.6 million
23. The Haunting (1999) — 33.4 million 
24. Get Out (2017) — 33.4 million
25. Scream 2 (1997) — 32.9 million

 

Peace,

Mike

I have always seen Hannibal included but then you also get into the whole does "Signs"  Count discussion as well....

[narniadis]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Like I said,  it definitely comes down to profit. There's valid reason to believe TR could have turned a nice profit given its budget to WW gross ratio, but as you said it's not hard evidence. If there is a nice profit though, I don't know why the sequel wouldn't get made. The movie was literally made with the intention of leading directly into a sequel. It's a different thing than a movie made with sequel potential, but let's wait and see how it does kind of thing. It was clearly already planned for TR to have a sequel when  they made this one, so that's why if it also turned a profit it wouldn't make much sense for it not to happen. 

 

I don't actually see it being much of a difference. There has been nothing in the run so far to suggest that WOM is anything other than just fine - that never leads to a better opening / total in the sequel. Profit isn't nearly the issue so much as if they can still make profit on the next installment. I doubt it.

[svenson]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

It is the point that what seems like a sure bet going in doesn't always pan out.... Of course Divergent has other issues, the lower box-office being the least of it's worries LOL.

 

A 2nd Tomb Raider in this new version will drop in gross across the board - there is no real incentive to make another one without halving the budget and that won't happen.

They can easily make another for 80-85 million. It could increase too plenty of sequels increased. You say you haven't seen it. Why not go out and see it ?

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

It is the point that what seems like a sure bet going in doesn't always pan out.... Of course Divergent has other issues, the lower box-office being the least of it's worries LOL.

 

A 2nd Tomb Raider in this new version will drop in gross across the board - there is no real incentive to make another one without halving the budget and that won't happen.

That statement seems entirely unfounded. That's highly unusual for first sequels to drop across the board OS unless the first was already a flop or studios wait forever between installments (PRU). TR was a mini breakout OS. There should be only potential for growth there, regardless of what would happen DOM. 

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, svenson said:

They can easily make another for 80-85 million. It could increase too plenty of sequels increased. You say you haven't seen it. Why not go out and see it ?

Cause I don't have time / money / time / etc. Most of us are adults with real life worries that don't revolve around our current movie "stan" And not everyone is single / no kids either. Will catch the film on DVD probably this time next year when it makes it's way through my Netflix que.

[MikeQ]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

I have always seen Hannibal included but then you also get into the whole does "Signs"  Count discussion as well....

Ah, I forgot about Signs ($60.1M opening). That is another that arguably should be included. BOM designates is as "Sci-fi Horror".

 

Same with the films Prometheus ($51.1M opening), Alien vs. Predator ($38.3M opening), and The Purge ($34.1M opening), all of which I would personally designate as horror. I mean, they designate Alien: Covenant as horror.

 

But War of the Worlds is also designated as Sci-Fi Horror, and for whatever reasons I wouldn't classify that as "horror", but maybe a broad definition is the best way to go...

 

Peace,

Mike

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

13 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

is it only me who thinks @svenson is another clone of @mredman/@intenso.

 

mredman: Last visited Mar 17

intenso: Joined Mar 17 Last visited Mar 29

svenson: Joined Mar 31

 

Well shit......

 

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That statement seems entirely unfounded. That's highly unusual for first sequels to drop across the board OS unless the first was already a flop or studios wait forever between installments (PRU). TR was a mini breakout OS. There should be only potential for growth there, regardless of what would happen DOM. 

OS should increase I will give you that one. We rarely get sequels to performances such as this one, so there isn't much to judge on other than data points. Nothing points to another film increasing in the domestic market.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

I don't actually see it being much of a difference. There has been nothing in the run so far to suggest that WOM is anything other than just fine - that never leads to a better opening / total in the sequel. Profit isn't nearly the issue so much as if they can still make profit on the next installment. I doubt it.

If this one made a profit, then why wouldn't the next? Again, I don't understand the logic for expecting drop offs everywhere OS? It should be the opposite. And how much worse could it really do DOM? It's already pretty damn low there. If TR pulled a healthy profit even in spite of DOM, then what would they have to lose for a similarly budgeted sequel? 

[svenson]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Like I said,  it definitely comes down to profit. There's valid reason to believe TR could have turned a nice profit given its budget to WW gross ratio, but as you said it's not hard evidence. If there is a nice profit though, I don't know why the sequel wouldn't get made. The movie was literally made with the intention of leading directly into a sequel. It's a different thing than a movie made with sequel potential, but let's wait and see how it does kind of thing. It was clearly already planned for TR to have a sequel when  they made this one, so that's why if it also turned a profit it wouldn't make much sense for it not to happen. 

Yep they always planned for this to become a franchise and now that this is well recieved and Vkander has been getting praise from both audience and critics it makes perfect sense to try and make this into a franchise with the first one pulling such good WW cume.

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

That statement seems entirely unfounded. That's highly unusual for first sequels to drop across the board OS unless the first was already a flop or studios wait forever between installments (PRU). TR was a mini breakout OS. There should be only potential for growth there, regardless of what would happen DOM. 

[Eric Furiosa]

So, how about that Quiet Place?

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

So, how about that Quiet Place?

It came out with a ROAR.... lol looking forward to eventually seeing it.

[filmlover]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

So, how about that Quiet Place?

Is it free of franchise discussion? If so, where is it located?

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

WiT's worst case scenario now should be about 98m. That's TL holds from here out, which had some really nasty holds after this weekend. So 100 seems pretty likely. 

Running numbers with exact drop/holds off the Sunday estimate to avoid rounding errors, I get 97m if AWiT follows Tomorrowland exactly from this day on including the coming M-Th.

 

BUT, if AWiT avoids the catastrophic theater count loss that TL had in Week 6 (it lost 1,100 theaters for part of the week and then 300 more when the 4th of July films entered theaters), and/or gets drops of 45% in both Week 6 and Week 7 (instead of TL's 54.9 and 58.1 respectively) , then I get: 99.6m

And there ain't no way Disney wouldn't leave it in theaters a little longer than it did TL to get that last 400k.

 

So even if AWiT gets TL's weekday holds this coming M-Th (and it should beat them, IMO), it just needs to get sub-50% drops the next two weeks.  If it does, the chances of it hitting 100m are pretty good.

 

So, my official verdict?  AWiT is indeed out of emergency room and is now in the ICU.  Talk to me after next weekend and we'll see if the patient can be sent given a further upgrade.

 (@CoolEric258)
 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Porthos