INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Rebeccas]

5 minutes ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

2.1x has been my prediction for a while and I reallyyyy see no reason to adjust it.  if it opens higher than I expect it to (like, beating TFA) then I'll adjust it down to 2.05 or 2x

That's a smaller multiplier than DH Pt 2 though... which I just don't see a film breaking OW records and then going that poorly.

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

One needs to remember that with a gross ~ 500 million a small amount of change in the multiplier makes a huge difference

 

A 225 million with a 2.0 Multiplier is 450 while a 2.4 Multiplier is 540 million.

 

So a 2.2 vs 2.4 makes a huge difference

That sounds like really complicated math. You mind explaining that again? 

[Rumpot]

For those who are so certain about how poor the legs for this movie are : if you end up wrong that hurts the credibility for your future predictions and will make your level of confidence irrelevant.  Just saying

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, Rumpot said:

For those who are so certain about how poor the legs for this movie are : if you end up wrong that hurts the credibility for your future predictions and will make your level of confidence irrelevant.  Just saying

Or we're wrong, and it happens, no one is perfect and everyone will in general forget about this, unless through some unholy sacrifices IW pulls out 4x+ legs.

 

The reverse is also true.

[Deep Wang]

Just now, Rumpot said:

For those who are so certain about how poor the legs for this movie are : if you end up wrong that hurts the credibility for your future predictions and will make your level of confidence irrelevant.  Just saying

 

Just think, this time next year, we will be have the same argument about A4's legs.

 

Yay.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

That's a smaller multiplier than DH Pt 2 though... which I just don't see a film breaking OW records and then going that poorly.

With nowaday previews starting at 7pm instead of 12pm, wonder if it would not have made DH Pt2 even more frontloaded.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

Just think, this time next year, we will be have the same argument about A4's legs.

 

Yay.

 

Infinity War had shitty legs, but this is the finale FOR REAL so legs will be INSANE

[Rumpot]

3 minutes ago, RandomCat said:

Or we're wrong, and it happens, no one is perfect and everyone will in general forget about this, unless through some unholy sacrifices IW pulls out 4x+ legs.

 

The reverse is also true.

Being wrong is one thing.  Many are posting with authority/certainty

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

That's a smaller multiplier than DH Pt 2 though... which I just don't see a film breaking OW records and then going that poorly.

He has a dead set total of 460M or something for it to be under JW2. So if say OW is 250M, you can be damn sure that this IW business is going sub-BvS multi. 

 

Simple math really.

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

 

Infinity War had shitty legs, but this is the finale FOR REAL so legs will be INSANE

Bookmark it now.  It will happen.

[Biggestgeekever]

16 minutes ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

2.1x has been my prediction for a while and I reallyyyy see no reason to adjust it.  if it opens higher than I expect it to (like, beating TFA) then I'll adjust it down to 2.05 or 2x

"No matter what happens this weekend, I'm still going to think I'm right with my prediction."

[Deep Wang]

Just now, Rumpot said:

Being wrong is one thing.  Many are posting with authority/certainty

Because it is a certainty.

 

Dread it.

 

Run from it.

 

Destiny still arrives.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

He has a dead set total of 460M or something for it to be under JW2. So if say OW is 250M, you can be damn sure that this IW business is going sub-BvS multi. 

 

Simple math really.

 

480M.  228/480, to be exact.

 

If it's 250M, then it'll probably end at $512M, which would inch out Jurassic World by about $8M

[Sam]

1 minute ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

 

480M.  228/480, to be exact.

 

If it's 250M, then it'll probably end at $512M, which would inch out Jurassic World by about $8M

No sub 2x? You gotta dream bigger. Like Chewy said, commit to your #brand

[That One Girl]

Just now, Sam said:

No sub 2x? You gotta dream bigger. Like Chewy said, commit to your #brand

 

Nah sub 2x is too far.  but if it goes the full mile and hits $300M OW, then yes it will go sub-2x.

[RandomCat]

Just now, Rumpot said:

Being wrong is one thing.  Many are posting with authority/certainty

And? some of these people posting with authority/certainty have been doing this for years, and one bad prediction shouldn't be enough to wipe away all that.

 

Plus, where is your chastising of people posting with authority/certainty that IW will have great legs?

[harrycaul]

8 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

For those who are so certain about how poor the legs for this movie are : if you end up wrong that hurts the credibility for your future predictions and will make your level of confidence irrelevant.  Just saying

If we're right do we get extra credibility?

 

Alternatively, I'm just here to talk about something I enjoy talking about - box office predictions.

[fabiopazzo2]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

For some weird reason I think that if this thing beats the opening weekend record, the legs will actually be slightly better.  Because I don't think this thing beats it without incredible WOM/spillover into Sat/Sun.  Which could potentially spillover into the second weekend. 

 

Still, even with the most unbelievable WOM imaginable, I'm talking no more than 2.5x.

 

 

every film that has opened more than 200 million in USA has exceeded 600M but not IW ??   

[CoolioD1]

after seeing the movie i think black panther's got nothing to worry about. 240/580 is my bet.

[Rebeccas]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

With nowaday previews starting at 7pm instead of 12pm, wonder if it would not have made DH Pt2 even more frontloaded.

I think only for the weekend multiplier.