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Weekend Thread....Please read the staff announcement pg 104 (Solo 29.2...DP 23.3...Adrift 11.5)

By baumer, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by baumer,

Look ladies and gentlemen, this has gone on long enough.  It started with the DCEU and we didn't put the lid on that quick enough,  It made the forums unbearable for a time.  So we had to make the spoiling the well rule.     Same thing goes here.  It's not a SW bias as some have suggested.  It's that about a dozen posters have all complained about the same things.  We can't have a shit storm/blitzkrieg against one film.  There are threads for that.  We have said in the past, if you wan
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Posted by Rthmessiah,

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just wann make one clear with that 500M China prediction; that here is the context:

 

On 27.5.2018 at 1:23 PM, GraceRandolph said:

Only 140 million away from the original 500M BOT prediction. :whosad:

 

On 27.5.2018 at 1:36 PM, PPZVGOS said:

To be honest, that's what I expected (hoped) from AIW in China. That movie (IW) just kicks so much butt to not make what several Chinese movies have already made or not to comfortably overtake those FF abominations. 

 

On 27.5.2018 at 2:11 PM, Brainbug said:

 

No worrys, Jurassic World will gross that 500M :)

 

I dont know how anyone could have seen this as something else as sarcasm honestly. :lol: thats probably why i forgot that post as well. I mean i made a JW2 > IW (in China) club where i stated that it is unlikely for JW to match IW. Im a JW stan but im not stupid.

 

Edited by Brainbug
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Mekanos Box Office Gold

Mekanos

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Not with the outstanding reviews it's getting so far. Have you seen Hereditary or something?

It's been screened and plot summaries are up. It's sounding like previous A24 horror movies that are, shall we say, not audience friendly.

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted (edited)

              RTH     Deadline  my predix

Solo          7.8     8.0           7.8

Deadpool   6.5     6.5           6.5

Adrift        4.4      4.2          4.225 (3.5 +0.725 previews)

Avengers   2.7     2.9           2.7

Book         2.1     2.1           2.1

Upgrade    1.7     1.5           1.5 + 0.2 previews

Party                  1.0           1.0

Breaking            .751          .75

Action P    0.78   .775          .78

Overboard          .438          .44

 

and an analysis with my predict-ions for 3-day analysis

 

Solo - 7.8 + 12.2 + 9.0 = 29.00

 

Deadpool - 6.5 + 9.5 + 6.5 = 22.5

 

Adrift - 0.725 + 3.5 + 4.225 + 3.5  = 12.0

 

Avengers - 2.7 + 4.7 + 3.1 = 10.5

 

Book Club - 2.1 + 2.9 + 2.0 = 7.0

 

Upgrade - 1.7 + 1.5 + 1.1 = 4.3

 

Party - 1.0 + 1.5 + 1.0 = 3.5

Break - 0.75 + 1.1 + 0.65 = 2.5

Overboard - 0.44 + 0.66 + 0.7 = 1.8

 

Action Point - 0.78 + 0.90 + 0.62 = 2.3

 

 

I saw a point in this thread where Empire said Show Dogs was looking better than Action Point.  If Show Dogs averages 20 people per theater at $9 for the day, that is $180 per 2,327 theaters and multiplication would expand this number to $419,860, or 0.42 for Friday *(Overboard is #10 on Deadline with 0.44).  If Show Dogs does 0.42 Friday and had a 4.0 weekend to Friday multiplier, Show Dogs would still likely place below Overboard with 1.68m.    

 

 

Edited by Thematrixfilm
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Pure Spirit Box Office Gold

Pure Spirit

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

It's been screened and plot summaries are up. It's sounding like previous A24 horror movies that are, shall we say, not audience friendly.

In this case I don't think Cinemascore matters. It's getting terrific buzz as a horror film from diverse sources, plus 98% on RT. If some poor saps wander in thinking it's a romcom, that's on them. I think it'll do gangbusters for a horror film.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

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13 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

It's been screened and plot summaries are up. It's sounding like previous A24 horror movies that are, shall we say, not audience friendly.

 

The Witch also wasnt audience-friendly and that grossed a healthy 40M WW. A24 is a bit like a mini-arthouse-Blumehouse, they dont need their movies to reach a very big audience to make them profitable.

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

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I did not see much tv commercial on Action Point.  I wonder if Action Point and Upgrade spend around the same on pure online advertising, maybe $5 million each.  BH Tilt is supposed to do stuff like that I think and I have not seen much from Hereditary yet other then +100% reviews or whatever it says on paper.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
Just now, Thematrixfilm said:

I wonder if Solo bombing so hard was just to get people to turn to Netflix and create a market where Netflix makes big budget fx movies

 

Not sure if serious but if its the case that is very doubtfull since Disney has been very vocal about their tentpole movies that they needed to be watched in theaters. Very few people in the theatralic business like Netflix.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

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Anyway, thanks to the massive success of Solo, SW as a franchise has now grossed over 9B worldwide - could SOLO lead it even to the 10B mark? :

 

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted (edited)

yeah but maybe they were trying to ruin Star Wars and the theaters and the box office would sink and Netflix would even/level it out.  just a thought.  what do I know, I ranked it #1 for the year so far.  

Edited by Thematrixfilm
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Rebeccas Box Office Gold

Rebeccas

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

yeah but maybe they were trying to ruin Star Wars and the theaters and the box office would sink and Netflix would even/level it out.  just a thought.  what do I know, I ranked it #1 for the year so far.  

What 

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FantasticBeasts Blockbuster

FantasticBeasts

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Anyway, thanks to the massive success of Solo, SW as a franchise has now grossed over 9B worldwide - could SOLO lead it even to the 10B mark? :

 

To be honest I thought it was a done deal but we may retake the second spot for a few months.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

yeah but maybe they were trying to ruin Star Wars and the theaters and the box office would sink and Netflix would even/level it out.  just a thought.  what do I know, I ranked it #1 for the year so far.  

 

tenor.gif

 

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

To be honest I thought it was a done deal but we may retake the second spot for a few months.

 

I think so. FB2 should make it to 700M WW, which would bring the franchise to 9,24B. I dont see Solo getting another ~ 200M worldwide to surpass that amount.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Thematrixfilm said:

or maybe Solo's bad BO performance was a way to dissuade Fox from giving the Avatar franchise to Disney

538.jpg

 

At this point, its gotta be a joke, right? Right?

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