jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[baumer]

Is it possible that this could behave more like Beauty and the Beast instead of Finding Dory?  This is a massive opening and hence the multiplier could be less than 3.  I honestly have no idea and I'm just spit-balling here, but according to Mojo, the largest pure animated opening is Dory at 135 million.  This is going to best that by at least 45 million.  And the fact that this is going to open in BatB territory, could it mean that the multiplier could be similar?

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

For I2 to hit $100M on its 2nd weekend while matching the 46% 2nd weekend drop of FINDING DORY and TOY STORY 3, it would have to do $185M this weekend. Any lower and it needs a smaller drop. If the drop is bigger, it needs a bigger opening than that.

The drop will be smaller. It is already holding significantly better than Dory on OW, and considering that's even with I2 doing over double the previews of Dory, this thing is basically screaming that it's not going to be frontloaded at all.  

Edited June 17, 2018 by MovieMan89

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

As mentioned, $59M for Saturday would be very strong considering both Finding Dory and Toy Story 3 stayed flat on Saturday compared to True Friday.

 

Looks like the weekend could look like this overall (or better if Father's Day buoys it even more - I'm just already surprised by the strong Sat):

THU: 18.5M

FRI: 53M

SAT: 59M (+11%)

SUN: 50M (-15%)

------------------

TOTAL: $180.5M

 

This would represent the 8th best opening weekend of all-time. Insane numbers! Shattering the previous animated film record.

 

Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Share from Previews

 

Rank / Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights

1. Avengers: Infinity War — 257.7 million (15.1%)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 248.0 million (23.0%)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 220.0 million (20.5%)
4. Jurassic World — 208.8 million (8.9%)
5. Marvel’s The Avengers — 207.4 million (9.0%)
6. Black Panther — 202.0 million (12.5%)
7. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 191.3 million (14.4%)
8. Incredibles 2 — 180.5 million (10.2%) - potential/projected gross
9. Captain America: Civil War — 179.1 million (14.0%) 
10. Beauty and the Beast — 174.8 million (9.3%)
11. Iron Man 3 — 174.1 million (9.0%)
12. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 169.2 million (25.7%) 
13. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 166.0 million (16.7%) 
14. The Dark Knight Rises — 160.9 million (19.0%)
15. The Dark Knight — 158.4 million (11.7%)
16. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 158.1 million (16.0%)
17. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 155.1 million (18.7%)
18. The Hunger Games — 152.5 million (12.9%)
19. Spider-Man 3 — 151.1 million (6.6%)
20. Furious 7 — 147.2 million (10.7%) 

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

Finally, the puzzle is complete. We've got entries in the 200's, 190's, 170's, 160's and 150's etc etc. Now we have one in the 180's.

 

The next goal is to fill out the 210's and 230's.

[Biggestgeekever]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

Is it possible that this could behave more like Beauty and the Beast instead of Finding Dory?  This is a massive opening and hence the multiplier could be less than 3.  I honestly have no idea and I'm just spit-balling here, but according to Mojo, the largest pure animated opening is Dory at 135 million.  This is going to best that by at least 45 million.  And the fact that this is going to open in BatB territory, could it mean that the multiplier could be similar?

Not a chance with summer weekdays.

[Blankments]

baumer I really want to recommend Incredibles 2 to you for an extremely specific reason but I fear it might count as a spoiler and get me thread-banned lol

[Joyous Legion]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If it can manage to hit 185, then I'd say there's a slight chance IW's second weekend will go down. It won't dip below 100 next week with that opening. 

From 59, 185 takes a 54.5 Sun — 9% drop. That would be cool, and it’s possible, but with a 60.5 Sat the paths to a 100M second weekend would be easy rather than tenuous.   

 

Edit: I should claify. It is not that there would be a path that is easily achieved, just that you could easily construct a path which is at least realistic.

Edited June 17, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Is it possible that this could behave more like Beauty and the Beast instead of Finding Dory?  This is a massive opening and hence the multiplier could be less than 3.  I honestly have no idea and I'm just spit-balling here, but according to Mojo, the largest pure animated opening is Dory at 135 million.  This is going to best that by at least 45 million.  And the fact that this is going to open in BatB territory, could it mean that the multiplier could be similar?

The Disney live action fairy tales have played very differently than WDAS or Pixar animation though. Aside from The Jungle Book, they have all struggled to do 3x. Whereas like I and others have already mentioned, I2's Sat hold is significantly more impressive than the Pixar norm. And the Pixar multi norm is 3.5-4x. 

 

Btw, people should keep what I mentioned above about the live action adaptations in mind when making these crazy TLK predictions. History suggests the multi for that will only be around 3x. 

Edited June 17, 2018 by MovieMan89

[oMeriMombatti]

Massive SAT no, 183M OW is my prediction right now. I think Incredibles 2 DOM > The Incredibles WW is going to happen. Only other instance which I can remember where a direct sequel did more business DOM than 1st movie WW is TDK over BB. This is a tremendous success, don't think even Disney was expecting it to blow up like this.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Not a chance with summer weekdays.

 

Summer weekdays mean smaller weekends.  It all balances out.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

baumer I really want to recommend Incredibles 2 to you for an extremely specific reason but I fear it might count as a spoiler and get me thread-banned lol

 

You can pm me.

[water]

disney having three ~700m movies in the first half of the year 

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

Is it possible that this could behave more like Beauty and the Beast instead of Finding Dory?  This is a massive opening and hence the multiplier could be less than 3.  I honestly have no idea and I'm just spit-balling here, but according to Mojo, the largest pure animated opening is Dory at 135 million.  This is going to best that by at least 45 million.  And the fact that this is going to open in BatB territory, could it mean that the multiplier could be similar?

Being such outside any norms and breaking the OW by nearly 50%, anything is possible, it could have play like a SH movies sequels by how much non family audience driven the first report were.

 

Who knows, it is pretty much unprecedented.

 

It is almost certain it would have good legs for a sequel big opener, for an A+ animated movie that is far from certain.

Edited June 17, 2018 by Barnack

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Disney live action fairy tales have played very differently than WDAS or Pixar animation though. Aside from The Jungle Book, they have all struggled to do 3x. Whereas like I and others have already mentioned, I2's Sat hold is significantly more impressive than the Pixar norm. And the Pixar multi norm is 3.5-4x. 

 

Right, but no Pixar film has opened this big before.  So doesn't that mean that there is a rush factor to it?  So would it be really surprising if it opened to 185 and finished with 540?

[Blankments]

Let's just presume a 180M OW. Pixar multipliers for summer for the last ten years then go:

 

Up: 774M

Inside Out: 709M

Toy Story 3: 677M

Finding Dory: 648M

Brave: 644M

WALL-E: 639M

Monsters University: 586M

Cars 2: 521M

Cars 3: 513M

 

this is gonna be a monster

[MovieMan89]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Right, but no Pixar film has opened this big before.  So doesn't that mean that there is a rush factor to it?  So would it be really surprising if it opened to 185 and finished with 540?

How is there a rush factor though when the movie is holding better on Sat than what's normal for Pixar? That doesn't make sense. 

[Chewy]

6 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Finally, the puzzle is complete. We've got entries in the 200's, 190's, 170's, 160's and 150's etc etc. Now we have one in the 180's.

 

The next goal is to fill out the 210's and 230's.

 

Detective Pikachu etc

[Jake Gittes]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Summer weekdays mean smaller weekends.  It all balances out.

Sub 3x would mean Cars 2 legs (a 60% second weekend drop, little staying power afterwards) which naaah. I think movieman is letting every new update carry him off further into loonie land but this isn't going below 3x. 

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Summer weekdays mean smaller weekends.  It all balances out.

Really ? I would imagine summer is still better for everything for a movie like that.

[Chewy]

The legs are going to be.............. fantastic

[baumer]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

How is there a rush factor though when the movie is holding better on Sat than what's normal for Pixar? That doesn't make sense. 

 

There's a rush factor to the weekend.  It could be massively front loaded on the weekend.

 

Like I said, I'm spit-balling.  This has never happened before.  So right now, no one really knows.  For all I know it could get a 4X and gross 750 million.