Moviefanatic Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 (edited) Was about to ask but why do people keep saying Gotg 3? Maybe you guys know something i don’t but i don’t see that movie opening anywhere near 200 million Edited June 28, 2018 by Moviefanatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Moviefanatic said: Was about to ask but why do people keep saying Gotg 3? Maybe you guys know something i don’t but i don’t see that movie opening anywhere near 200 million Really, not anywhere near? GotG2 did 146, so 3 should be looking at 150+ almost certainly. This'll be their first movie after featuring in a pair of Avengers movies, so it should see a healthy bump, and it would only need a 36.5% increase to hit 200. I wouldn't actually say it's favored, but it should be decently close. Edited June 28, 2018 by Thanos Legion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 I guess Episode IX could miss $600M if it opened right at $200M and had legs similar to TLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 GOTG3 has a chance at $200m but I still don't think it's going to make that leap. Probably like a $160-170m OW range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJsooner Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 GotgV2 was more divisive then any of the phase 3 movies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviefanatic Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Really, not anywhere near? GotG2 did 146, so 3 should be looking at 150+ almost certainly. This'll be their first movie after featuring in a pair of Avengers movies, so it should see a healthy bump, and it would only need a 36.5% increase to hit 200. I wouldn't actually say it's favored, but it should be decently close. Yea...just don’t see it for some reason. Maybe 165-170. Probably because i thought Gotg 2 was just ok Edited June 28, 2018 by Moviefanatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Moviefanatic said: Hmm what will be the first 200 million opener to miss 600 million 🤔🤔 At this point, of all the potential 200m opener (and Guardians 3 is not one of them wth u guys smoking), Star Wars EP9 is the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 I can see GOTG Vol 3 getting $170M but yeah no way it gets close to $200M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviefanatic Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said: At this point, of all the potential 200m opener (and Guardians 3 is not one of them wth u guys smoking), Star Wars EP9 is the most likely. Yea I’ll go with Star Wars 9 but i honestly wouldn’t be surprised if that opened around AOU numbers instead but still make more than TLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Oh, IX is another strong contender depending upon reception. GotG2 wasn't that great, but neither was Iron Man 2, Thor 2, or Avengers 2 -- the movies that people will be remembering then from more will be Infinity War and Avengers: Far From Title Announcement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 (edited) Applying the smallest of the 4 threequel bumps (IW, lol) would get it to 197.4 Now there are a few totally reasonable arguments why it might set a new record low threequel bump. It's not like the current sample size is super big. But the numbers are pretty clear there for it, historically. Edited June 28, 2018 by Thanos Legion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, KJsooner said: GotgV2 was more divisive then any of the phase 3 movies. SMH says hi. 😛 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Rebeccas said: That was never on the table.. it's been projected for low-mid teens for weeks now. The first one did like $12m when it went wide. How can you possibly know that 20 was never on the table? Tracking is not 100% accurate. Just look at JWFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: What? The first film made like 40m and was more indie drama than it was mainstream. Most of its audience are probably the type that never even think about sequels and franchises. And a lot of the cast and creative team aren't back for this one. Plus marketing seemed really low key. I didn't expect more than 10m for it on OW, so I'm already surprised it might make in the teens. What? Jesus dude. I swear you and I are like oil and water. Anytime I say something it seems like you always have to contradicted or bring up some Counterpoint. It's like nothing I ever say can ever be agreeable to you LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, baumer said: How can you possibly know that 20 was never on the table? Tracking is not 100% accurate. Just look at JWFK. Sure, but you're expecting it to drastically overperform tracking which isn't typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, sfran43 said: @baumer these predictions for Sicario and Uncle Drew seem more realistic to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 52 minutes ago, baumer said: How can you possibly know that 20 was never on the table? Tracking is not 100% accurate. Just look at JWFK. Official tracking was $130-150m for JW:FK 3 weeks out and narrowed to $135-150m the week of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Yeah, JWFK is just about the only big movie this year that tracking really nailed -- BP, IW, and I2 went above theirs, DP and Solo below, but FK landed right in the window of long and short term tracking. That's part of why you saw a lot of people describing it as medium, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
