Weekend Actuals (Page 92): Ant-Man and the Wasp 75.8M (#CRUMBLING EVEN MORE) | Jurassic World 28.6M | Incredibles 2 28.4M | The First Purge 17.4M

[Thrylos 7]

59 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

So name the last film to double it's opening weekend from the previous film.  I know they are out there, and I'm not going to look them up, but my guess is most of them are films that were modest hits (grossed 75 mill or less in the first film) that went on to have a big HV discovery and then the next film blew up.  I don't think there are many films that did well in their first chapter that went on to double the opening weekend in the next one.  AMATW is going to open to about 50% more than the last.  That's pretty damn good.  

 

You say you understand the box office but from time to time, you post things that indicate otherwise.

I understand the box office as good as the majority in this forum that makes predictions for various movies and then acts as if these predictions never happened while singing kumbaya.

As for your question, matrix 27 million ow, matrix2 91 ow. POTC 47 million, POTC2 136 million. I could find more if I put my mind into it and neither the first matrix nor the first POTC were minor hits and it’s not like the first ant man was a box office juggernaut.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

I understand the box office as good as the majority in this forum that makes predictions for various movies and then acts as if these predictions never happened while singing kumbaya.

As for your question, matrix 27 million ow, matrix2 91 ow. POTC 47 million, POTC2 136 million. I could find more if I put my mind into it and neither the first matrix nor the first POTC were minor hits and it’s not like the first ant man was a box office juggernaut.

 

POTC and Matrix had 5-day openings

[McNerdy]

Early weekend estimates are in? Don't know how to paste a pretty list like you guys do: https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-estimates-ant-man-wasp-jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-incredibles-first-purge/

 

[Thrylos 7]

Depressing for AATW, great for I2 , good for JW2 and O8.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

It's Marvel, produced by Feige, he was in Civil War.  Lets not get carried away and say it's insane.

It is not insane, everything that actually happen isn't obviously (only wild prediction can be), but doing that much for what that movie high concept is (imagine releasing an Ant Man movie in 2006 for example), with that cast and reviews and a reported small 100m budget opening over 60m !

 

Arguably the best James Bond ever opened at 40m back then, a giant Superman return did 52, well X-Men went over 100m too.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, McNerdy said:

Early weekend estimates are in? Don't know how to paste a pretty list like you guys do: https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-estimates-ant-man-wasp-jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-incredibles-first-purge/

 

This message board is quite good at formatting, just a simple Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V often do the trick, make sure to select all the column and rows thought with the title one, it will keep their format and look pretty:

 

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Ant-Man and the Wasp	$79,000,000	—	4,206	—	$18,783	$79,000,000	1	Disney
2	Incredibles 2	$31,000,000	-33%	4,113	-297	$7,537	$506,361,414	4	Disney
3	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	$30,890,000	-49%	4,349	-136	$7,103	$335,647,665	3	Universal
4	The First Purge	$18,460,000	—	3,031	—	$6,090	$32,365,945	1	Universal Pictures
5	Sicario: Day of the Soldado	$7,300,000	-62%	3,055	0	$2,390	$35,302,070	2	Sony / Black Label
6	Uncle Drew	$6,300,000	-59%	2,742	0	$2,298	$29,623,620	2	Lionsgate / Summit
7	Ocean’s 8	$5,400,000	-35%	2,604	-822	$2,074	$126,866,228	5	Warner Bros.
8	Tag (2018)	$3,300,000	-44%	2,157	-1019	$1,530	$48,525,681	4	Warner Bros.
9	Deadpool 2	$1,775,000	-50%	1,267	-827	$1,401	$314,646,400	8	Fox

 

 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Barnack

[Zakiyyah6]

Honestly I'm predicting a 15-20% drop from Ant-Man and The Wasp Thrusday/Friday numbers but I wouldn't be shocked if it pulled a Homecoming and had around a 27% drop. Basically I'm saying that an under 80mil opening wouldn't shock me.

Edited July 7, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Barnack]

13 hours ago, The Futurist said:

That s the weirdest thing, right ?

I keep hearing how Ant Man 2 is fun, fun, funny, funny, FUN !!!!

but, as usual, I ll prefer the VFX set pieces and the huge heart inside the characters and the quality story.

Not that I often understand your cryptic message, but are you saying that VFX action set piece are not fun fun !? Or character having huge hearts or story ?

[grey ghost]

36 minutes ago, narniadis said:

But again why?? You were asking the film to do something that wasn't even in the realm of possibility (that % increase from the first was would have been HUGE on top of it already being big via the 80+ debut.) The pre-sales didn't indicate 100m, the tracking didn't indicate 100m, and past Marvel history didn't indicate 100m. It baffles me that some of y'all not only thought it had that potential but staked your predictions on it. Granted, once in a blue moon the crazy ass prediction is right, but the data doesn't generally skew that frequently and Marvel is not Jurassic World in the walk-ups department.

 

Earlier this week I tried to discuss how 80m was a good goal and over the low end of tracking (75m) and most of the tracking folks were still going nuts with boom/bust (the presales / the MT % / etc).... as I said, this forum doens't know how to appreciate Good numbers for what they are.

Not all Marvel movies are equally front loaded and presales have been poor indicators numerous times in the last few months.

 

So acting like box office is an exact science is a bit siller than over predicting by 20%.

[Alli]

Paul Rudd with a 80M movie opening. Many A-listers would love that kind of opening weekend..

[IronJimbo]

$79m? Simply incredible. That's more than Avatar.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Not all Marvel movies are equally front loaded and presales have been poor indicators numerous times in the last few months.

 

So acting like box office is an exact science is a bit siller than over predicting by 20%.

Again, not only would it have to bump more than any other MCU film than WS to CW but opened before two $145M+ OWs that appealed to its main demographics.

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

So name the last film to double it's opening weekend from the previous film.  I know they are out there, and I'm not going to look them up, but my guess is most of them are films that were modest hits

 

There is the long wait sequel with inflation/add 3d/add one more day of box office in the weekend that came close, Dory did 135m from 70m.

 

Those who did not already named:

Incredible just did it 182 from 70.4m

Batman went from 48m in 2006 (big at the time) to 158m in 2008.

Shrek from 42 to 108.

Twilight went from 70 to 142.

 

Almost did

Hangover 45 to 86

 

First Ant-Man movie was not a phenomenom (legs, home video relative to it's box office, book sales after the movie launched) anywhere close to any of the above obviously.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Barnack

[McNerdy]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

Paul Rudd with a 80M movie opening. Many A-listers would love that kind of opening weekend..

Jupsz. I will admit that the money some blockbusters make are mind-blowing. But they are not the rule, more the exception. With 80m OW only 87 movies EVER and only 6 movies this year made more money on an OW. Imo that's quite impressive . 

[Zakiyyah6]

If Ant-Man and The Wasp opens with 78-79mil and only has like a 2.5 multi I will admit that that would be disappointing to me because that would be under a 200mil gross in North America. I'm not trying to claim that nothing is disappointing. And honestly my base prediction for Ant-Man and The Wasp was 220-ish milllion, AKA Doctor Strange numbers. So I admit that under that wouldn't be BAD but it would be under my expectation. 

[Legion Again]

Under 230 would just be sad, but I don’t think that’ll happen still. 

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

If Ant-Man and The Wasp opens with 78-79mil and only has like a 2.5 multi I will admit that that would be disappointing to me because that would be under a 200mil gross in North America. I'm not trying to claim that nothing is disappointing. And honestly my base prediction for Ant-Man and The Wasp was 220-ish milllion, AKA Doctor Strange numbers. So I admit that under that wouldn't be BAD but it would be under my expectation. 

2.5 multi would be disappointing and Dr Strange dbo is a nice bar of unqualified success for this.

 

Recent MCU sequel multi

 

Thor 3: 2.566

Guardian 2: 2.66

Civil War : 2.27

 

Considering those movies level of hype and size of their OW, Ant Man could easily do 2.65 and 210 with an 78-79 OW I would imagine.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Barnack

[Nova]

Under $80M now? 

 

Went from $85M-$95M. Then to $81M. And now it’s under $80M. By the end of the weekend, AMTW is going to be the negatives isn’t. Unprecedent for a film let alone an MCU film. 

[movieboner]

Who cares about Antman missing $100 mil and Jurassic Crap the next Transformers franchise. Let's talk about the incredible hold for Incredibles 2. The sexy legs on that hot mom is turning heads. Can I2 hit $600 million domestic? 

 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Under $80M now? 

 

Went from $85M-$95M. Then to $81M. And now it’s under $80M. By the end of the weekend, AMTW is going to be the negatives isn’t. Unprecedent for a film let alone an MCU film. 

 

After Infinity War put up numbers that lived up to the name of Infinity, Ant-Man 2 does the same...