Weekend Thread: HTM heading for about 10 mill..CRA killing it with projected 4% drop

[sfran43]

 

[IronJimbo]

cool infos @MikeQ

[LonePirate]

18 minutes ago, baumer said:

Besides the fact that crazy Rich Asians had an excellent all-asian cast, I don't really get what is so great about the movie. I enjoyed it and I thought it was funny in parts but it was far from a great film in my opinion.

While I probably enjoyed the film more than you did, I can certainly understand where you’re coming from here. The film could use more laughs as it is far more rom than it is com. There are also some structural problems with the film due to unnecessary characters and a lack of a focus (until the 3/4 mark) on the true core of the movie - the dynamic between the characters portrayed by Wu and Yeoh. I personally needed the film to be more like Monster-in-Law.

 

However, the film is entertaining on its own merits and the movie breezes by during its runtime. The characters are likeable and you want to get to know them, which always helps a film perform well. I think people are flocking to the film due to the “Rich” part of the title and the Asian setting and people in the film. Basically, it’s cultural exploration and education from the comfort of a theater seat.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Slightly off-topic but I'm always amazed how leggy The Blind Side was, even though it had holidays to help it. 

It was a true WOM sensation as well. The Internet will probably always scoff whenever films like it make a serious dent claiming that they've seen it a thousand times before (...while drooling at the prospect of the umpteenth big screen iteration of, say, Batman), but there's always gonna be a place for a good old-fashioned crowd-pleaser.

[sfran43]

 

[Maxmoser3]

Damnit so Saturday was slightly overestimated.

 

Well... looks like Crazy Rich Asians will do north of $20 million again in its 3rd weekend possibly, and make $160-$170 million domestic. The Meg’s legs will help it to $140 million domestic. 

 

Happytime murders looked like a snoozer, but it”ll find a way on late night viewings on Showtime and Comedy Central in a few years. R-rated comedies are a niche property now than they used to be, so really the next big R-rated comedy may not be for a year or two. And as for Melissa Mccarthy’s career, she’s not over it’s just a few slumps that stars tend to have. Hell.. Sandra Bullock had that in the 90’s after Speed and A Time To Kill and didn’t gain back her momentum until Miss Congeniality, if you wanna make that comparison.

[BenedictL11]

Just now, Maxmoser3 said:

Damnit so Saturday was slightly overestimated.

 

Well... looks like Crazy Rich Asians will do north of $20 million again in its 3rd weekend possibly, and make $160-$170 million domestic. The Meg’s legs will help it to $140 million domestic. 

1

CRA has a chance at $200M domestically, too.

[sfran43]

 

[DAJK]

LMao yikes so Happytime couldn’t even get 10M. Oh well, it kinda sucked 

[sfran43]

 

[LonePirate]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

LMao yikes so Happytime couldn’t even get 10M. Oh well, it kinda sucked 

I am so sick of elitists and movie snobs expecting comedies to be funny. Also, please ignore my last post complaining about CRA being more rom than com.

[MagnarTheGreat]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: +2 days to 29 days to 90% of dom. gross (MCU highest ever sequel is 30 days; Ant-Man was 37 days)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: +1 day to 28 days (Jurassic World was 31 days)

Incredibles 2: +1 day to 32 days (The Incredibles was 44 days)

 

Stamina for Top 10 high domestic earners >$200M (2015-2018) (last week's table):

 

Spoiler

 

Top 10 Highest Domestic Grossing Movie >$200M (2015 – 2018)	90% of Gross on Day	Multiplier (DG ÷ FW)	Domestic Gross	First Weekend	Release Month	Box Office Position
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	18	1.99	$330.4M	$166.0M	Mar.	#8 (2016)
Justice League	23	2.44	$229.0M	$93.8M	Nov.	#10 (2017)
Captain America: Civil War	23	2.28	$408.1M	$179.1M	May	#3 (2016)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	23	2.82	$620.2M	$220.0M	Dec.	#1 (2017)
Solo: A Star Wars Story*	24	2.53	$213.6M	$84.4M	May	#6 (2018)
Furious 7	24	2.40	$353.0M	$147.2M	Apr.	#5 (2015)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	25	3.43	$532.2M	$155.1M	Dec.	#1 (2016)
Avengers: Age of Ultron	26	2.40	$459.0M	$191.3M	May	#3 (2015)
It	28	2.65	$327.5M	$123.4M	Sep.	#7 (2017)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom*	28	2.79	$413.0M	$148.0M	Jun.	#4 (2018)
Spectre	29	2.84	$200.1M	$70.4M	Nov.	#10 (2015)
Ant-Man and the Wasp*	29	2.79	$211.5M	$75.8M	Jul.	#7 (2018)
Thor: Ragnarok	29	2.57	$315.1M	$122.7M	Nov.	#8 (2017)
Deadpool 2*	29	2.54	$318.4M	$125.5M	May	#5 (2018)
Finding Dory	29	3.60	$486.3M	$135.1M	Jun.	#2 (2016)
Suicide Squad	30	2.43	$325.1M	$133.7M	Aug.	#9 (2016)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	30	2.66	$389.8M	$146.5M	May	#5 (2017)
Avengers: Infinity War*	30	2.63	$678.7M	$257.7M	Apr.	#2 (2018)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	30	3.78	$936.7M	$248.0M	Dec.	#1 (2015)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – P2	31	2.74	$281.7M	$102.7M	Nov.	#7 (2015)
Minions	31	2.90	$336.0M	$115.7M	Jul.	#6 (2015)
Deadpool	31	2.74	$363.1M	$132.4M	Feb.	#6 (2016)
Beauty and the Beast	31	2.88	$504.0M	$174.8M	Mar.	#2 (2017)
Jurassic World	31	3.12	$652.3M	$208.8M	Jun.	#2 (2015)
Cinderella	32	2.96	$201.2M	$67.9M	Mar.	#9 (2015)
Sing	32	7.67	$270.4M	$35.3M	Dec.	#10 (2016)
Incredibles 2*	32	3.27	$597.1M	$182.7M	Jun.	#3 (2018)
Spider-Man: Homecoming	36	2.86	$334.2M	$117.0M	Jul.	#6 (2017)
Despicable Me 3	37	3.65	$264.6M	$72.4M	Jun.	#9 (2017)
The Secret Life of Pets	37	3.53	$368.4M	$104.4M	Jul.	#4 (2016)
Black Panther	38	3.47	$700.1M	$202.0M	Feb.	#1 (2018)
Inside Out	39	3.94	$356.5M	$90.4M	Jun.	#4 (2015)
The Jungle Book	39	3.53	$364.0M	$103.3M	Apr.	#5 (2016)
Wonder Woman	41	4.00	$412.6M	$103.3M	Jun.	#3 (2017)
The Martian	44	4.21	$228.4M	$54.3M	Oct.	#8 (2015)
Zootopia	45	4.55	$341.3M	$75.1M	Mar.	#7 (2016)
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	54	11.18	$404.5M	$36.2M	Dec.	#4 (2017)
average of table	32	3.37
median of table	30	2.86
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
numbers current as of August 26, 2018

 

 

Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier	Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier
January	2.88	2.66	July	3.30	3.22
February	2.81	2.73	August	3.22	3.00
March	3.02	2.89	September	2.87	2.75
April	2.76	2.65	October	3.02	2.75
May	2.95	2.82	November	3.43	3.23
June	3.13	3.01	December	5.45	4.76
all (1025 movies)				3.21	2.93
excludes 2018 releases
highest month in blue; lowest month in red
numbers from top opening domestic earners (2008-2017) as of August 16, 2018

 

M:I-F will join the table next time.

Edited August 27, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

I am so sick of elitists and movie snobs expecting comedies to be funny. Also, please ignore my last post complaining about CRA being more rom than com.

is this... an insult directed at me? I can't tell, but I didn't do anything to intentionally offend anyone

[LonePirate]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

is this... an insult directed at me? I can't tell, but I didn't do anything to intentionally offend anyone

Read the second sentence before the first one. I was trolling myself, especially since way upthread I posted that THM was just not funny enough for a comedy and needed more jokes.

[Maxmoser3]

49 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said:

CRA has a chance at $200M domestically, too.

It does have a shot but we need to see how it does in September first. 

[sfran43]

 

[BenedictL11]

20 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

It does have a shot but we need to see how it does in September first. 

You're right. However, it doesn't have any PG-13 competition until Night School. Most of the films next month carry an R-rating. Plus. September is not as strong as last year with The Nun not being big like IT. The real competition is in October with A Star is Born (likely targeting the same audience).

 

That small drop indicates it may have a chance of increasing next weekend in its 3-day portion. If the final total in the mid-190s before November, I'm sure the studio will fudge the number to $200M when WB has Aquaman and FB coming out during the holidays.

Edited August 27, 2018 by BenedictL11

[MrPink]

14 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

Crumbling.

[sfran43]

 

[BenedictL11]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Crumbling.

Slightly overestimated, but the actual 2nd weekend number for CRA is $24,808,202.

Edited August 27, 2018 by BenedictL11