Weekend Thread: HTM heading for about 10 mill..CRA killing it with projected 4% drop

[John Marston]

Solo is also pretty much the only real bomb of the summer. Everything else was a big hit or broke even 

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

Its funny that $2.78m is simultaneously an awful number yet also dramatically better than anyone expected.

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

At this point, which movie doesn't? Most big movies this year have grossed more OS than Solo anyway.

true, though i feel that begining of the year, of all the tentpoles, both of these were least expected to. they also have a b-movie vibe which makes the whole thing funnier.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, this has been an amazing box office year.

It feel that way, but looking at the worldwide box office versus 2017, this year seem to be behind a little bit..... 

 

August 26, 2017:

https://web.archive.org/web/20180826153932/https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2017&p=.htm

vs

https://web.archive.org/web/20170816063015/http://www.boxofficemojo.com:80/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2017&p=.htm

 

Top 3 look good, but

 

2017 vs 2018

#5: 797 vs 733

#10: 594 vs 538

#20: 312 vs 292

#30: 195 vs 132

#40: 106 vs 83m

#50: 75.7 vs 65.7

 

A 6-20% down and the total is also down.

[Wrath]

On the bright side with AXL, at least a pile of money that small was pretty quick to count.

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

Along with WB's O8 and CRA, Meg too could overtake RPO's 137 dom. Meg will at least do low 130s by adding 2x this weekend (12.9) to it's cume (105.2). RPO though has a big global tally of 580+ including China's spledid 220+.

 

 

RPO after its second weekend where it held well, did poorly. I wonder why

[baumer]

Jurassic world is within shouting distance now of 1. 3 billion. So it had a fantastic run for a sequel to a film that made 1. 6 billion dollars.

[KeepItU25071906]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

RPO after its second weekend where it held well, did poorly. I wonder why

A Quiet Place, Rampage, Avengers - Is this enough for you?

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

	M:I - Rogue Nation	M:I - Fallout*	M:I-F % change from M:I-RN
Weekend 1	$55,520,089	$61,236,534	10.30%
Day 4-7	$23,734,118	$28,250,837	19.03%
Weekend 2	$28,502,372	$35,323,815	23.93%
Wknd. 1 → Wknd. 2 drop	-48.66%	-42.32%
Day 11-14	$13,379,976	$17,156,098	28.22%
Day 4-7 → Day 11-14 drop	-43.63%	-39.27%
Weekend 3	$17,186,540	$19,352,090	12.60%
Wknd. 2 → Wknd. 3 drop	-39.70%	-45.22%
Day 18-21	$7,739,944	$8,919,347	15.24%
Day 11-14 → Day 18-21 drop	-42.15%	-48.01%
Weekend 4	$11,451,746	$10,773,347	-5.92%
Wknd. 3 → Wknd. 4 drop	-33.37%	-44.33%
Day 25-28	$4,571,745	$4,888,592	6.93%
Day 18-21 → Day 25-28 drop	-40.93%	-45.19%
Weekend 5	$8,155,581	$8,087,385	-0.84%
Wknd. 4 → Wknd. 5 drop	-28.78%	-24.93%
Domestic Gross on Day 31	$170,242,111	$193,988,045	13.95%
Final Domestic Gross	$195,042,377	TBD
Multiplier on Day 31	3.07**	3.17
90% of Total Domestic Gross on Day	37	23
* still in theaters
** final gross multiplier: 3.51 (total divided by weekend 1)

[grim22]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

They had a good run till July where Ant Man 2 won by a margin over Fallout and then August where Christopher Robin topped Meg by a distance.

[baumer]

A few hot takes that mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things:

 

Besides the fact that crazy Rich Asians had an excellent all-asian cast, I don't really get what is so great about the movie. I enjoyed it and I thought it was funny in parts but it was far from a great film in my opinion.

 

Christopher Robin absolutely bored me to tears and it will probably make my list of the top 10 worst films of the summer.

 

there's a small Canadian film that came out over the weekend called Little Italy, and it stars Hayden Christensen and Emma Roberts and Danny Aiello just to name a few. It's probably the best time I've had at the movie theater this year.

 

I haven't made a lot of really good cause this year but I did say that the mag would be a hit and I even took 500 million worldwide in the summer game. It's not going to hit that amount but it's certainly going to do a lot better than what a lot of people thought at the beginning of the summer.

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, grim22 said:

They had a good run till July where Ant Man 2 won by a margin over Fallout and then August where Christopher Robin topped Meg by a distance.

To be fair, AM&TW will be within a few mil of Fallout, and not necessarily below.

 

CR and Meg both getting pretty outstripped by CRA though, so the Aug poll is a big miss.

[MikeQ]

Summer RT Update:

 

Opening this week, The Happytime Murders and A.X.L. are both very rotten (albeit, A.X.L. only has 10 reviews). On the other hand, opening wide next week, Searching looks like it will end up being one of the best reviewed wide-release films of the summer - currently sitting at 93% and a 7.8 average rating, in the top 5.

 

One more weekend of summer to go, with three wide-release films: the aforementioned Searching (already added to our list), and Kin and Operation Finale. I'll add the remaining two films at the end of the long weekend, and see where the final list stands for Summer 2018. 

 

For the third summer in a row (i.e. since I started tracking), the summer seems to predictably have around a 50/50 split of Fresh vs Rotten films (2016: 48% / 52% split; 2017: 43% / 57%; 2018 so far: 49% / 51%), with usually somewhat more Rotten films than Fresh it seems. This is of course only a sample size of three summers, and also the designation of "Fresh" vs "Rotten" is a somewhat arbitrary one, particularly as some films end up being right near the cusp of Fresh or Rotten. (Also, while 2017 has the worst split in terms of a larger proportion of films being Rotten, it is the summer with the highest number of films 80% or higher and with an 8+ average rating).

 

2018 — 43 wide-release films (so far; two more films to add)

• 21 fresh, 22 rotten
• 80% or higher: 13 films
• 8.0+ rating: 3 films (BlacKkKlansman, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Hereditary)

 

2018 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August)

1. Mission: Impossible - Fallout — 97% — 8.3 rating
2. BlacKkKlansman — 95% — 8.2 rating
3. Crazy Rich Asians — 94% — 7.7 rating
4. Incredibles 2 — 93% — 7.9 rating
5. Searching — 93% — 7.8 rating
6. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies — 91% — 7.1 rating
7. Hereditary — 89% — 8.2 rating
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp — 87% — 6.9 rating
9. Tully — 86% — 7.6 rating
10. Upgrade — 86% — 7.1 rating
11. Deadpool 2 — 83% — 7.0 rating
12. Alpha — 82% — 6.6 rating
13. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again — 80% — 6.3 rating
14. Adrift — 73% — 6.2 rating
15. Solo: A Star Wars Story — 71% — 6.4 rating
16. Christopher Robin — 70% — 6.1 rating
17. Ocean’s 8 — 67% — 6.2 rating
18. Uncle Drew — 65% — 6.0 rating
19. Sicario: Day of the Soldado — 64% — 6.4 rating
20. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation — 60% — 5.4 rating
21. Dog Days — 60% — 5.1 rating
22. Unfriended: Dark Web — 58% — 5.7 rating
23. Hotel Artemis — 58% — 5.7 rating
24. Tag — 55% — 5.4 rating
25. The First Purge — 53% — 5.4 rating
26. Book Club — 53% — 5.3 rating
27. Bad Samaritan — 52% — 5.6 rating
28. Equalizer 2 — 51% — 5.6 rating
29. Superfly — 51% — 5.4 rating
30. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 50% — 5.6 rating
31. The Spy Who Dumped Me — 49% — 5.3 rating
32. Skyscraper — 48% — 5.2 rating
33. The Meg — 47% — 5.5 rating
34. Life of the Party — 38% — 4.9 rating
35. A.X.L. — 30% — 4.2 rating (only 10 reviews)
36. Breaking In — 26% — 4.3 rating
37. Overboard — 26% — 4.2 rating
38. The Happytime Murders — 22% — 3.9 rating
39. Mile 22 — 20% — 4.0 rating
40. Action Point — 19% — 3.4 rating
41. The Darkest Minds — 18% — 4.2 rating
42. Show Dogs — 17% — 3.2 rating
43. Slender Man — 8% — 3.4 rating

2017 — 42 wide-release films

• 18 fresh, 24 rotten
• 80% or higher: 14 films
• 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver)

2016 — 42 wide-release films

• 20 fresh, 22 rotten
• 80% or higher: 9 films
• 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings)

Peace,

Mike

Edited August 27, 2018 by MikeQ

[sfran43]

 

Edited August 27, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited August 27, 2018 by sfran43

[Jonwo]

Slightly off-topic but I'm always amazed how leggy The Blind Side was, even though it had holidays to help it. 

[sfran43]

Of course $10M was too good to be true!

 

 

Edited August 27, 2018 by sfran43