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AndyLL

A census taker one tried to test me. I ate his Derby with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. | Week 35

By AndyLL, in Box Office Derby

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BobDole Indie Sensation

BobDole

Posted
Posted (edited)

League Match-Up Preview

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

0

TalismanRing

8.15

3.4

6

25

11.76

5.75

7.97

4.82

6.4

5.17

1

Boxx93

7.5

2.9

4.4

25.5

11.7

6.3

8.1

4.5

6.1

4.7

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

2

Empire

7.25

3.23

5.23

25.41

12.22

6.84

8.54

4.95

6.52

5.07

0

boxofficeth

6.78

3.45

4.56

23.4

10.09

5.01

7.27

3.86

5.31

3.94

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

1

POTUS

7.8

3.2

5

25.5

11.31

5.5

8

5.15

6.6

5

0

The Fast and the Furiosa

7.2

2.8

5.9

23.8

12.1

4.8

7.85

4.6

6.2

5.6

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

0

8wombi7

8.07

3.48

5.05

25.27

12.13

5.5

8.29

4.93

6.25

4.95

1

Wrath

7.95

2.9

3.6

23.81

11

5.05

8.1

4.62

6.45

4.81

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

1

Sheikh

7.63

3.46

6.05

26.2

11

5.2

7.39

4.77

5.66

4.92

0

Rolling Thunder

7.51

5.43

6.26

27.44

12.27

5.1

7.39

5.08

5.69

5.32

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

0

Keanu

8.02

3.57

6.12

26.29

10.86

5.67

7.43

4.68

6.05

5.11

1

Deja23

7.5

3.3

4.8

25

1.5

5.1

7.6

4.4

5.7

4.7

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

0

PanaMovie

6.34

3.39

3.41

23.96

10.86

4.77

7.12

4.84

6.12

4.6

1

Tower

9.34

3.5

6

25.55

10.12

4.77

7.2

4.17

5.26

4.68

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

1

Litio

7.3

3

5.3

25

10.7

5.7

7.2

5

5.9

5.1

0

TheXper

7.46

3.21

5.19

25.01

11.74

5.26

8.25

4.73

6.58

5.1

 

Prior Wins

OpFinale

Kin

Searching

CRA

Meg

Happytime

MI6

Mile22

Christopher

Alpha

3

Simionski

8

4.4

5

23

10.65

4.3

6.8

4.7

5.65

4.5

0

BDole

9.8

3.3

3.9

24.8

11.9

6

7.33

3.83

5.99

5

 

Matches to watch:

Litio v TheXper (L5)

POTUS v The Fast and the Furiosa (L2)

2 very tight races here with barely any movies more than a million apart in estimates. Average of differences in guesses for Litio v TheXper is 0.4 while 0.68 is the average distance between POTUS & Furiosa's guesses. Not a lot of potentially determining films here aside from The Meg and MI6 for Litio v Xper, even the 1.7 difference for Crazy Rich Asians between POTUS & Furiosa is dulled by the percentage swing being lessened.

 

Will I continue my streak...of losing when playing against Top 3 players? Probably. My record's 1-6 or thereabouts including 3 losses against this weekend's opponent. Lots of divergences here, including my $9.8M on Operation Finale (highest of anybody's guess) and several 1M differences among the lower-gossing movies. Stand by the 9.8 but damn, really wish I'd gone with 5.5 for Happytime. This will probably be a lop-sided affair.

Another match-up that could be a blow-out is Empire v boxofficeth, with 7 movies with 1M+ difference in guesses (and 3 closer to 2M).

The highest average divergence, however, belongs to Deja23 v Keanu thanks to a likely-typo'd 1.5M guess on The Meg.

Other than that, the biggest difference in a movie's guess belongs to Tower v PanaMovie 6.34 v 9.34 for Operation Finale along with another gulf for Searching (3.41 v 6) that'll go long way to determine this match-up given 4 films are within 0.11 of each other.

 

Sunday Update:

Not too many close ones here, looks like only PanaMovie v Tower and possibly TalismanRing v Boxx93 could change with actuals.

    Sun Sat Fri
PanaMovie 86.09
-0.6
-0.3
1.9
Tower 86.72
TalismanRing 79.99
-1.1
-0.2
-2.2
Boxx93 81.13
8wombi7 79.37
-2.6
-2.2
-2.7
Wrath 81.96
Litio 85.3
3.1
2.6
3.3
TheXper 82.18
Keanu 81.89
3.3
3.1
2.5
Deja23 78.57
POTUS 80.33
-4.5
-4
-3.2
The Fast and the Furiosa 84.87
Simionski 85.4
6.2
7.3
6.1
BobDole 79.21
Sheikh 85
10.1
9.9
10.1
Rolling Thunder 74.95
Empire 77.47
-12.6
-14
-13.4
boxofficeth 90.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

Late Friday/early Saturday Deadline update:

PanaMovie 86.61
1.941
Tower 84.67

TalismanRing 79.396
-2.23
Boxx93 81.63

Keanu 81.32
2.533
Deja23 78.79

8wombi7 79.81
-2.682
Wrath 82.49

POTUS 80.97
-3.207
The Fast and the Furiosa 84.18

Litio 86
3.336
TheXper 82.67


Simionski 85.61
6.116
BobDole 79.49

Sheikh 83.57
10.088
Rolling Thunder 73.49

Empire 77.91
-13.404
boxofficeth 91.31
Edited by BobDole
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AndyLL Summer Tentpole

AndyLL

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Posted
5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Seriously?

Boxx93 81.89
TalismanRing 81.89

Better not be... I don't think I have a tie-breaker defined.

 

If not I will flip a coin and new/holdover % will be the tiebreaker.

 

 

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

Posted
Posted

Hmm. I got a slightly different answer than POTUS, perhaps I'm doing it wrong?

 

Anyway, by my (possibly questionable) math, it wasn't literally a tie, it was just really, really close, depending on how many digits you go out to.

 

Boxx93: 81.9067

TalismanRing: 81.8733

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BobDole Indie Sensation

BobDole

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Posted

abOl7eE.jpg

 

My numbers differ a bit from Wrath's but also show Boxx93 in the lead, rounding to 2 decimals they up with AndyLL's 81.89-81.89 tie:

 

Boxx93: 81.893

TalismanRing: 81.886

 

We could stay true to the thread's title and see which player can find the other and consume their liver first err...we can make that plan B, I guess.

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AndyLL Summer Tentpole

AndyLL

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Posted

Yeah... weekly % are out to 3 places so not an issue.  

 

Congrats @boxofficeth

 

 

1 boxofficeth 90.403% 83.004% 93.573% 8.436% 32 10
2 Zeverly Hills Cop 89.854% 85.428% 91.751% 7.888% 31 10
3 dX airdry zid 88.632% 77.923% 93.222% 6.666% 30 10
4 Wildbill 88.512% 83.107% 90.829% 6.546% 29 10
5 Tower 88.306% 76.189% 93.500% 6.340% 28 10
6 Bates 88.080% 83.042% 90.240% 6.114% 27 10
7 PanaMovie 87.163% 79.783% 90.326% 5.197% 26 10
8 Sheikh 86.974% 86.370% 87.233% 5.008% 25 10
9 The Fast and the Furiosa 86.275% 89.901% 84.721% 4.309% 24 10
10 Simionski 86.109% 68.248% 93.764% 4.143% 23 10
11 Litio 86.036% 88.245% 85.090% 4.070% 22 10
12 sloth 85.549% 76.626% 89.373% 3.583% 21 10
13 ChipMunky 84.836% 77.580% 87.947% 2.870% 20 10
14 Keanu 83.959% 82.840% 84.439% 1.993% 19 10
15 TheXper 83.110% 85.330% 82.158% 1.144% 18 10
16 Wrath 82.870% 74.214% 86.579% 0.904% 17 10
17 Boxx93 81.893% 81.099% 82.233% -0.074% 16 10
18 TalismanRing 81.886% 83.874% 81.035% -0.080% 15 10
19 lilmac 81.647% 56.188% 92.559% -0.319% 14 10
20 POTUS 81.325% 82.514% 80.816% -0.641% 13 10
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