A census taker one tried to test me. I ate his Derby with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. | Week 35

[AndyLL 15,354]

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

 

[AndyLL 15,354]

ok... I was in a hurry and didn't have time to find a quote. 

 

The best one (IMO) someone gives will be the title.

[Premium George 4,514]

Toto, I've got a feeling, we're not in the derby anymore.

[Tower 4,288]

Do you have the latest issue of Derby Pussy Party?

[AndyLL 15,354]

[Keanu 208]

Go home. Forget this Derby. I can recognize an obsession, no good will come of it.

 

The trick is to never stop looking, there's always another Derby.

Edited August 30, 2018 by Keanu

[WrathOfHan 43,474]

A census taker one tried to test me. I ate his Derby with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. 

[POTUS 2020 8,355]

Plater sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cy4fkqeb-bAPY_ZvDuOx4YxmE_5BtxMGZVPBN3quy_s/edit?usp=sharing

 

[BobDole 122]

League Match-Up Preview

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
0	TalismanRing	8.15	3.4	6	25	11.76	5.75	7.97	4.82	6.4	5.17
1	Boxx93	7.5	2.9	4.4	25.5	11.7	6.3	8.1	4.5	6.1	4.7

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
2	Empire	7.25	3.23	5.23	25.41	12.22	6.84	8.54	4.95	6.52	5.07
0	boxofficeth	6.78	3.45	4.56	23.4	10.09	5.01	7.27	3.86	5.31	3.94

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
1	POTUS	7.8	3.2	5	25.5	11.31	5.5	8	5.15	6.6	5
0	The Fast and the Furiosa	7.2	2.8	5.9	23.8	12.1	4.8	7.85	4.6	6.2	5.6

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
0	8wombi7	8.07	3.48	5.05	25.27	12.13	5.5	8.29	4.93	6.25	4.95
1	Wrath	7.95	2.9	3.6	23.81	11	5.05	8.1	4.62	6.45	4.81

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
1	Sheikh	7.63	3.46	6.05	26.2	11	5.2	7.39	4.77	5.66	4.92
0	Rolling Thunder	7.51	5.43	6.26	27.44	12.27	5.1	7.39	5.08	5.69	5.32

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
0	Keanu	8.02	3.57	6.12	26.29	10.86	5.67	7.43	4.68	6.05	5.11
1	Deja23	7.5	3.3	4.8	25	1.5	5.1	7.6	4.4	5.7	4.7

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
0	PanaMovie	6.34	3.39	3.41	23.96	10.86	4.77	7.12	4.84	6.12	4.6
1	Tower	9.34	3.5	6	25.55	10.12	4.77	7.2	4.17	5.26	4.68

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
1	Litio	7.3	3	5.3	25	10.7	5.7	7.2	5	5.9	5.1
0	TheXper	7.46	3.21	5.19	25.01	11.74	5.26	8.25	4.73	6.58	5.1

 

Prior Wins		OpFinale	Kin	Searching	CRA	Meg	Happytime	MI6	Mile22	Christopher	Alpha
3	Simionski	8	4.4	5	23	10.65	4.3	6.8	4.7	5.65	4.5
0	BDole	9.8	3.3	3.9	24.8	11.9	6	7.33	3.83	5.99	5

 

Matches to watch:

Litio v TheXper (L5)

POTUS v The Fast and the Furiosa (L2)

2 very tight races here with barely any movies more than a million apart in estimates. Average of differences in guesses for Litio v TheXper is 0.4 while 0.68 is the average distance between POTUS & Furiosa's guesses. Not a lot of potentially determining films here aside from The Meg and MI6 for Litio v Xper, even the 1.7 difference for Crazy Rich Asians between POTUS & Furiosa is dulled by the percentage swing being lessened.

 

Will I continue my streak...of losing when playing against Top 3 players? Probably. My record's 1-6 or thereabouts including 3 losses against this weekend's opponent. Lots of divergences here, including my $9.8M on Operation Finale (highest of anybody's guess) and several 1M differences among the lower-gossing movies. Stand by the 9.8 but damn, really wish I'd gone with 5.5 for Happytime. This will probably be a lop-sided affair.

Another match-up that could be a blow-out is Empire v boxofficeth, with 7 movies with 1M+ difference in guesses (and 3 closer to 2M).

The highest average divergence, however, belongs to Deja23 v Keanu thanks to a likely-typo'd 1.5M guess on The Meg.

Other than that, the biggest difference in a movie's guess belongs to Tower v PanaMovie 6.34 v 9.34 for Operation Finale along with another gulf for Searching (3.41 v 6) that'll go long way to determine this match-up given 4 films are within 0.11 of each other.

 

Sunday Update:

Not too many close ones here, looks like only PanaMovie v Tower and possibly TalismanRing v Boxx93 could change with actuals.

		Sun	Sat	Fri
PanaMovie	86.09	-0.6	-0.3	1.9
Tower	86.72
TalismanRing	79.99	-1.1	-0.2	-2.2
Boxx93	81.13
8wombi7	79.37	-2.6	-2.2	-2.7
Wrath	81.96
Litio	85.3	3.1	2.6	3.3
TheXper	82.18
Keanu	81.89	3.3	3.1	2.5
Deja23	78.57
POTUS	80.33	-4.5	-4	-3.2
The Fast and the Furiosa	84.87
Simionski	85.4	6.2	7.3	6.1
BobDole	79.21
Sheikh	85	10.1	9.9	10.1
Rolling Thunder	74.95
Empire	77.47	-12.6	-14	-13.4
boxofficeth	90.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

Late Friday/early Saturday Deadline update:

PanaMovie	86.61	1.941
Tower	84.67

TalismanRing	79.396	-2.23
Boxx93	81.63

Keanu	81.32	2.533
Deja23	78.79

8wombi7	79.81	-2.682
Wrath	82.49

POTUS	80.97	-3.207
The Fast and the Furiosa	84.18

Litio	86	3.336
TheXper	82.67

Simionski	85.61	6.116
BobDole	79.49

Sheikh	83.57	10.088
Rolling Thunder	73.49

Empire	77.91	-13.404
boxofficeth	91.31

Edited September 3, 2018 by BobDole

[Rolling Thunder 348]

Kin killed me, IMAX screens totally let me down. @Sheikhwill be pleasantly surprised to advance. 

[Wrath 3,407]

I did pretty well on everything EXCEPT Searching which I both underestimated AND didn’t think would get previews. Be interesting to see if it can blow a big enough hole in my score to take me out all by itself.

[Deja23 2,105]

Oh no! I meant to put $10.5m for The Meg...can’t believe I’m just noticing that now! 😩😩😩😭

[Sheikh 542]

51 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Oh no! I meant to put $10.5m for The Meg...can’t believe I’m just noticing that now! 😩😩😩😭

Ask Andy to change it for you, he might do it. It's worth asking.

[TalismanRing 42,878]

Seriously?

Boxx93	81.89
TalismanRing	81.89

[AndyLL 15,354]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Seriously?

Boxx93	81.89
TalismanRing	81.89

Better not be... I don't think I have a tie-breaker defined.

 

If not I will flip a coin and new/holdover % will be the tiebreaker.

 

 

[Wrath 3,407]

Hmm. I got a slightly different answer than POTUS, perhaps I'm doing it wrong?

 

Anyway, by my (possibly questionable) math, it wasn't literally a tie, it was just really, really close, depending on how many digits you go out to.

 

Boxx93: 81.9067

TalismanRing: 81.8733

[TalismanRing 42,878]

40 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Hmm. I got a slightly different answer than POTUS, perhaps I'm doing it wrong?

 

Anyway, by my (possibly questionable) math, it wasn't literally a tie, it was just really, really close, depending on how many digits you go out to.

 

Boxx93: 81.9067

TalismanRing: 81.8733

[BobDole 122]

 

My numbers differ a bit from Wrath's but also show Boxx93 in the lead, rounding to 2 decimals they up with AndyLL's 81.89-81.89 tie:

 

Boxx93: 81.893

TalismanRing: 81.886

 

We could stay true to the thread's title and see which player can find the other and consume their liver first err...we can make that plan B, I guess.

[AndyLL 15,354]

Yeah... weekly % are out to 3 places so not an issue.  

 

Congrats @boxofficeth

 

 

	1	boxofficeth	90.403%	83.004%	93.573%	8.436%	32	10
	2	Zeverly Hills Cop	89.854%	85.428%	91.751%	7.888%	31	10
	3	dX airdry zid	88.632%	77.923%	93.222%	6.666%	30	10
	4	Wildbill	88.512%	83.107%	90.829%	6.546%	29	10
	5	Tower	88.306%	76.189%	93.500%	6.340%	28	10
	6	Bates	88.080%	83.042%	90.240%	6.114%	27	10
	7	PanaMovie	87.163%	79.783%	90.326%	5.197%	26	10
	8	Sheikh	86.974%	86.370%	87.233%	5.008%	25	10
	9	The Fast and the Furiosa	86.275%	89.901%	84.721%	4.309%	24	10
	10	Simionski	86.109%	68.248%	93.764%	4.143%	23	10
	11	Litio	86.036%	88.245%	85.090%	4.070%	22	10
	12	sloth	85.549%	76.626%	89.373%	3.583%	21	10
	13	ChipMunky	84.836%	77.580%	87.947%	2.870%	20	10
	14	Keanu	83.959%	82.840%	84.439%	1.993%	19	10
	15	TheXper	83.110%	85.330%	82.158%	1.144%	18	10
	16	Wrath	82.870%	74.214%	86.579%	0.904%	17	10
	17	Boxx93	81.893%	81.099%	82.233%	-0.074%	16	10
	18	TalismanRing	81.886%	83.874%	81.035%	-0.080%	15	10
	19	lilmac	81.647%	56.188%	92.559%	-0.319%	14	10
	20	POTUS	81.325%	82.514%	80.816%	-0.641%	13	10

[Rolling Thunder 348]

Although a statistical underdog, it was generally believed I would prevail. Looks like it's hitting the back 9 now.