CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

[Taruseth]

43 minutes ago, john2000 said:

and you get this based on what ?  we dont have enough info to determine the final gross its just guesing at this point

We have the first and second weekend and it's a superhero movie they all perform pretty similar and most of the time the weekend drop gives a good idea for the final gross. And if you check the specific threads than you would see that in those people are estimating what it final gross could be (the France number, for example, is the, in that thread, estimated final adm. count 3.25M (based on weekend drop and comparison to other superhero movies) multiplied by average ticket price for CM).

 

You are definitely right on that Rest gross though that is just a rough guess based on the weekend drop that most likely will be off by quite a lot.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

We have the first and second weekend and it's a superhero movie they all perform pretty similar and most of the time the weekend drop gives a good idea for the final gross. And if you check the specific threads than you would see that in those people are estimating what it final gross could be (the France number, for example, is the, in that thread, estimated final adm. count 3.25M (based on weekend drop and comparison to other superhero movies) multiplied by average ticket price for CM).

 

You are definitely right on that Rest gross though that is just a rough guess based on the weekend drop that most likely will be off by quite a lot.

oh i see, my comment was meant to be a question,sorry if it came with the wrong way ,so based from what we know so far the os gross could be anywhere from 700-750+

[terrestrial]

35 minutes ago, john2000 said:

oh i see, my comment was meant to be a question,sorry if it came with the wrong way ,so based from what we know so far the os gross could be anywhere from 696-750+

Am at work, just using a short break

So, do not see this as raining on the optimism, just a thought why its so difficult to predict too:

we assume the 2nd weekend drops, weekdays... were also bcs of a little push per the Endgame trailer.

That push might be ~ satisfied', means people who didn't plan to watch, but did so for the trailer reason, might have watched it already now.

A possibility of higher drops than some assume exists = not believing that it will / will not happen, but I always count the money only after it got earned....

[fabiopazzo2]

 

[LeoC]

4 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 

Increased from Tuesday (10.2m). How? India holiday?

[Taruseth]

6 hours ago, john2000 said:

oh i see, my comment was meant to be a question,sorry if it came with the wrong way ,so based from what we know so far the os gross could be anywhere from 700-750+

It could, of course, be lower, I'd say right now 700 ±50 (or more precise 695±20).

And there are quite some uncertainties like did the Endgame trailer help? Will Endgame help? etc. Will a big (local) movie kill CM in a specific market. Some markets might develop amazing late legs.

But this is based on 2nd weekend and weekdays and comparison to other Superhero movies (and with the information from other people)

The only countries I have a little idea about are the US (there are so many people on here that posted detailed analysis about prior movies and Germany.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Taruseth

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, LeoC said:

Increased from Tuesday (10.2m). How? India holiday?

 

Dunno

[cdsacken]

6 hours ago, john2000 said:

and you get this based on what ?  we dont have enough info to determine the final gross its just guesing at this point

 

Weeks 6/7/8/9 are a bit of a crapshoot with End Game coming out. That could change the predictions a lot. We shall see.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, LeoC said:

Increased from Tuesday (10.2m). How? India holiday?

Nope. It just being flat. In some countries Wednesday, weekend start so they would have risen.

Besides Thursday shall go for $9mn plus Thursday, that means FSS may hit $60mn.

[LeoC]

                          Mon                      Tues                                Wed

China             $133.8M      $135.7M (+1.9M)        $137.3M (+1.6M)
South Korea  $36.9M       $37.5M (+0.6M)          $37.8M (+0.3M)
U.K.               $32.1M         $32.9M (+0.8M)         $33.7M (+0.8M)
Brazil             $25.3M        $26.1M (+0.8M)          $26.7M (+0.6M)
Mexico          $25.2M        $25.7M (+0.5M)          $26.1M (+0.4M)
Australia       $18.9M         $19.3M (+0.4M)          $19.6M (+0.3M)
Indonesia     $16.8M         $17.1M (+0.3M)            $17.4M (+0.3M)
Russia          $16.4M         $16.7M (+0.3M)           $17.0M (+0.3M)
France         $15.3M         $15.9M (+0.6M)           $16.3M (+0.4M)
Germany     $14.5M         $14.9M (+0.4M)           $15.2M (+0.3M)
India            $12.3M         $12.6M (+0.3M)            $13.0M (+0.4M)

 

 

Stays flat or slightly decreases in most big OS markets. Perhaps the increase comes from other markets (e.g., Japan).

Or the actuals in previous weekdays come higher than estimated and thus are added to Wed's number.

Nevertheless, the number is looking good!

 

With holidays in India and Japan on Thursday, and a less than 10% day-to-day decrease in China on Thursday (Finally!), maybe we can expect Thursday to be around 10M?

[charlie Jatinder]

#CaptainMarvel Japan
Friday: $1.69mn
Saturday: $1.99mn
Sunday: $1.9mn
Monday: $0.7mn
Tuesday: $0.5mn
Wednesday: $0.65mn
Thursday: $1.15mn

 

Total: $8.6mn

 

Some holiday I suppose.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, LeoC said:

                          Mon                      Tues                                Wed

China             $133.8M      $135.7M (+1.9M)        $137.3M (+1.6M)
South Korea  $36.9M       $37.5M (+0.6M)          $37.8M (+0.3M)
U.K.               $32.1M         $32.9M (+0.8M)         $33.7M (+0.8M)
Brazil             $25.3M        $26.1M (+0.8M)          $26.7M (+0.6M)
Mexico          $25.2M        $25.7M (+0.5M)          $26.1M (+0.4M)
Australia       $18.9M         $19.3M (+0.4M)          $19.6M (+0.3M)
Indonesia     $16.8M         $17.1M (+0.3M)            $17.4M (+0.3M)
Russia          $16.4M         $16.7M (+0.3M)           $17.0M (+0.3M)
France         $15.3M         $15.9M (+0.6M)           $16.3M (+0.4M)
Germany     $14.5M         $14.9M (+0.4M)           $15.2M (+0.3M)
India            $12.3M         $12.6M (+0.3M)            $13.0M (+0.4M)

 

 

Stays flat or slightly decreases in most big OS markets. Perhaps the increase comes from other markets (e.g., Japan).

Or the actuals in previous weekdays come higher than estimated and thus are added to Wed's number.

Nevertheless, the number is looking good!

 

With holidays in India and Japan on Thursday, and a less than 10% day-to-day decrease in China on Thursday (Finally!), maybe we can expect Thursday to be around 10M?

India will drop by 30-40% on Thursday and another 15-30% on Friday.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[LeoC]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

India will drop by 30-40% on Thursday and another 15-30% on Friday.

Sorry I don't know India Box Office well enough. Are there many local films joining the competition on Thursday? I thought the Holi would boost the performance.

[pepsa]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

India will drop by 30-40% on Thursday and another 15-30% on Friday.

Also take in to account that in some European countries like my country (Belgium and the Netherlands) you only have to go to school for half a day (well not for me anymore but for people between 2 - 18 years old so that might boost numbers as well).

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, LeoC said:

Sorry I don't know India Box Office well enough. Are there many local films joining the competition on Thursday? I thought the Holi would boost the performance.

Holi is not a good day for box office. Further there is local biggie released today that will dominate market.

[terrestrial]

till Wednesday

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$282,251,537	34.7%
+ Foreign:	$530,000,000	65.3%
= Worldwide:	$812,251,537

[charlie Jatinder]

	Week One		Fri	Sat	Sun	2nd Weekend	Till 2nd Weekend		Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Total
China	108		6	10.9	7.1	24	132		2.2	1.9	1.7	1.5	139.3
UK	22.2		2.1	3.8	2.9	8.8	31		1.1	0.8	0.8	0.7	34.4
Brazil	17.7		1.4	2.8	2.4	6.6	24.3		1	0.8	0.6	0.5	27.2
South Korea	28.34		1.45	3.8	2.9	8.15	36.49		0.6	0.55	0.35	0.34	38.33
Mexico	16.5		1.4	2.5	2.4	6.3	22.8		2.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	26.5
India	9.55		0.5	0.9	1.05	2.45	12		0.35	0.35	0.3	0.2	13.2
Australia	13.8		1.05	2.1	1.55	4.7	18.5		0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	19.9
Indonesia	13.7		0.7	1	0.9	2.6	16.3		0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	17.7
Russia	12.9		0.7	1.2	1.2	3.1	16		0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	17.3
Germany	9.9		0.9	1.6	1.7	4.2	14.1		0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	15.6
France	11		0.8	1.4	1.7	3.9	14.9		0.4	0.6	0.4	0.4	16.7
Japan			1.7	1.9	1.9	5.5	5.5		0.7	0.5	0.7	1.15	8.55
Rest	115.33		9	15.6	12	36.6	151.93		3.4	3.3	3.2	3.2	165.03
	378.92		27.7	49.5	39.7	116.9	495.82		13.85	10.7	9.65	9.69	539.71

 

 

I think there was some error in Wednesday reported numbers, as no way I see it doing 10.6mn, most likely the estimated numbers for Monday and Tuesday came higher and that make sense as well. So I am going with my gut, $540mn till 2nd Week.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

My projection for 3rd weekend,

 

Friday: $13.5mn

Saturday: $25mn

Sunday: $20.5mn

Spoiler

	3rd Weekend
China	6.70
UK	5.30
Brazil	4.60
South Korea	3.60
Mexico	3.00
India	0.55
Australia	2.70
Indonesia	1.30
Russia	2.30
Germany	3.30
France	3.40
Japan	3.10
Rest	19.25
	59.10

 

 

Total: $59mn ($599mn Cume)

 

Domestic cume post weekend $322-323mn.

 

That gives worldwide total of $921-922mn post 3rd weekend.

 

That said, we would have

 

Week 0: $44mn

Week 1: $532mn

Week 2: $251mn

 

Week 3: $130mn / $957mn cume

Week 4: $70mn / $1027mn cume

Week 5: $35mn / $1062mn cume

Week 6: $20mn / $1082mn cume

Week 7: $13mn / $1095mn cume

Week 8: $10mn / $1104mn cume

 

Final: $1125mn cume 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

On 3/19/2019 at 10:45 AM, Thanos Legion said:

So Mexico holiday Monday was 25.2-22.8=2.4M? OS-M 10.8M, down a nice 50% from last Mon.    

 

Last weekdays were 3.37x Monday, but I’d expect it should be higher on a non-opening week.         

 

So perhaps around 10.8*3.7+4M from Mexico =44M weekdays for 540M Thurs, ~55M FSS to get 595? 

 

 

        

 

First weekdays OS-C-J was 57M, x1.53 gave 87 FSS. This time weekdays are ~36, but taking out Bank holiday in Mexico more like 34, so same multiplier would be about 52M. Would not be at all surprised to see the overall FSS go above 60 a bit.  (Since J should be 2-.2.5ish and C 5-7.5ish)    

 

1.1-AQM looks increasingly like the likely range. Will cross my fingers for an Endgame boost but will be late enough in run to not be huge magnitude even if it materializes.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

        

 

First weekdays OS-C-J was 57M, x1.53 gave 87 FSS. This time weekdays are ~36, but taking out Bank holiday in Mexico more like 34, so same multiplier would be about 52M. Would not be at all surprised to see the overall FSS go above 60 a bit.

OS-C-J first weekdays were $56.5mn while 2nd weekend was $87.5mn i.e. 1.55x.

 

2nd week weekdays are $33.5mn, say due to Mexico they will be $31.7mn, with same ratio, 3rd weekend shall be $49mn, while I estimated them to be $48mn in my $57mn projection.

 

 

If it has to beat Aquaman, need that $60mn plus weekend.