CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

[pepsa]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Meh they absolutely loved Venom so it's unclear what they specifically love. On second Run I realized it didn't suck but isn't it like in the top 10 for Hollywood movies in china? It's nowhere near that good. Hardy was very good, vemom was good, and rest was bad. I guess if they added a mediocre love story CM could have done better.

Nah I don't think so, marvel hasn't had any movie break out in china atm. Don't think a love story would have helped it much.

I know you didn't like venom (I haven't seen it yet) but in china movies that are good (for their taste) make great boxoffice if not they have legs between the 1.5-2 and you can't fault a movie for being very well liked by chinese audience. If you would say for example iron man 3 did great with out much help of china I would understand the argument because the markets has grown greatly over the last 6 years but you can't say for a movie that came after an other movie (unless the market imploded or the ER collapsed). 

 

 

[cdsacken]

No I mean objectively I rewatched it and analyzed everything. If I graded that on the biggest curve ever it's a B+. It preformed like an A+ in China. It's truly amazing what it did there, same goes for Aquaman.

 

I am actually excited to see the Venom sequel. Hardy and Venom were enough for me to overcome the flaws of the film because both will be there for the next one  . On second viewing I grade it a B- and think the sequel easily could be B+. BP IMO was incredibly and did mediocre in China,. Their tastes are very specific and impossible for me at least to anticipate. 

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

No I mean objectively I rewatched it and analyzed everything. If I graded that on the biggest curve ever it's a B+. It preformed like an A+ in China. It's truly amazing what it did there, same goes for Aquaman.

 

I am actually excited to see the Venom sequel. Hardy and Venom were enough for me to overcome the flaws of the film because both will be there for the next one  . On second viewing I grade it a B- and think the sequel easily could be B+. BP IMO was incredibly and did mediocre in China,. Their tastes are very specific and impossible for me at least to anticipate. 

Movies and objectively is probably a stretch. I mean Americans and most Europeans thought TFA/TLJ was a great movies many other countries didn't not think so at all. And maybe Venom has a messy structure (I woud not know) but it did have something where it connected with the audience in china. 

[charlie Jatinder]

It breaks my heart to say, but $700mn is dead fellas.

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Matthew said:

It earned around 28M Overseas this weekend. 

 

28*2=56

 

638+56=694M 

 

So, I think it will end around 695M+/- but of it holds better against Shazam ( which seems less likely) it could way past 700M OS. 

 

700M OS is very big thing considering it didn't get  much help from China like Aquaman. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

Well, CM is the biggest solo film of the whole MCU in China by far. I would say that is a great help. Another thing is to asume that every SH film would do what Venom or Aquaman did.

 

Said this, CM is bigger than Aquaman excluding China:

 

Aquaman: 812-298=$514m without China

Captain Marvel: 690-153=$537m without China (add or substract 10 million if you want)

 

After this, we can discuss about the fact that CM is related to both Infinity War and Endgame has helped it, if Aquaman was benefited because of Christmas boost or if Aquaman's run has been amazing taking into account that it was coming after Justice League failure... So many ifs.

 

The only fact I see here is that both runs have been great

[cdsacken]

Edited April 2, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

21 minutes ago, peludo said:

Well, CM is the biggest solo film of the whole MCU in China by far. I would say that is a great help. Another thing is to asume that every SH film would do what Venom or Aquaman did.

 

Said this, CM is bigger than Aquaman excluding China:

 

Aquaman: 812-298=$514m without China

Captain Marvel: 690-153=$537m without China (add or substract 10 million if you want)

 

After this, we can discuss about the fact that CM is related to both Infinity War and Endgame has helped it, if Aquaman was benefited because of Christmas boost or if Aquaman's run has been amazing taking into account that it was coming after Justice League failure... So many ifs.

 

The only fact I see here is that both runs have been great

I still can't believe how bad BP did there. Just crazy.

[peludo]

18 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I still can't believe how bad BP did there. Just crazy.

The problem were reception and legs, but not total gross, which was in the same range than Wonder Woman or GOTG2, for example. The problem is to compare something which drastically overperforms in one country with the rest of the world. Not everything can be liked in the same way everywhere. 

[terrestrial]

read repeatedly joyous tweets that Endgame, Dumbo, and Captain Marvel (finally) will be released in Pakistan too

[cdsacken]

17 hours ago, peludo said:

The problem were reception and legs, but not total gross, which was in the same range than Wonder Woman or GOTG2, for example. The problem is to compare something which drastically overperforms in one country with the rest of the world. Not everything can be liked in the same way everywhere. 

BP did 700 million in US and it did 100 million in China.....

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

read repeatedly joyous tweets that Endgame, Dumbo, and Captain Marvel (finally) will be released in Pakistan too

Won't matter much for CM and Dumbo. Will do under $500k.

[UserHN]

Is it right to assume that CM will most likely end up with around $1.09B?

Edited April 3, 2019 by UserHN

[peludo]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

BP did 700 million in US and it did 100 million in China.....

Well, we all know that it overperformed domestically. Is there any other market where BP ranks #3 of all time (beyond Africa)? It is a very special case.

 

And remember that until Venom, every solo SH film in last 4 or 5 years had done 600-800 million Yuan in China, exactly what BP did.

 

Another thing is to expect that the whole planet must do proportionally the same than DOM. For example, BP did in Spain less than GOTG2, Homecoming or Ragnarok, and just the same than the first MCU film, Iron Man, when MCU was nothing. An average gross, as it happened in some other countries, no just in China.

Edited April 3, 2019 by peludo

[cdsacken]

I totally hear what you're saying. But Venom did what 2.3x what BP.....is just absolutely insane. Same for Aquaman which I loved

Edited April 3, 2019 by cdsacken

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Won't matter much for CM and Dumbo. Will do under $500k.

Money is not all cinema is about, no?

First there have to be cinemas or movies being allowed into, or....

I started with I am pro existing cinemas worldwide

= anti 'cutural revolution' in China, anti-no-cinemas in Saudi Arabia,....

To me its about people who want(ed) to see a movie in a cinema now finally get a chance to see it in a cinema. To cinema worthy movies still get made, no only ~ TV-movies...

And cinema owners, staff,... get a chance to live from their work.

[pepsa]

13 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I totally hear what you're saying. But Venom did what 2.3x what BP.....is just absolutely insane. Same for Aquaman which I loved

Yeah and BP did 3.2 times what venom did domsticly and 2.1 times AQM so thats also insane by BP. Different markets different tastes.

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Money is not all cinema is about, no?

First there have to be cinemas or movies being allowed into, or....

I started with I am pro existing cinemas worldwide

= anti 'cutural revolution' in China, anti-no-cinemas in Saudi Arabia,....

To me its about people who want(ed) to see a movie in a cinema now finally get a chance to see it in a cinema. To cinema worthy movies still get made, no only ~ TV-movies...

And cinema owners, staff,... get a chance to live from their work.

I said so, just in case someone gets high expectations by that.

 

Besides, the reason was due to the distributor not paying his pending dues which is sorted.

 

[peludo]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

I totally hear what you're saying. But Venom did what 2.3x what BP.....is just absolutely insane. Same for Aquaman which I loved

Well, I see both Venom and Aquaman as special cases in China, like BP was domestically. Now we have seen that Captain Marvel has done "just" $150m, what is an undoubtable increase in the genre. Anyway, I think IW has boosted the genre like TA did in 2012.

[terrestrial]

46 minutes ago, peludo said:

Well, we all know that it overperformed domestically. Is there any other market where BP ranks #3 of all time (beyond Africa)? It is a very special case.

Agree to that, but:

I do not think its the right approach. In a lot of countries CBMs are still 'only' something for non-cultural people, or other reasons why CBM are not in the top 10 of their countries, and if, then mostly the team ups.

Or cinema admission counts are so extrem down, no new(ish) movie will count as top xx anyway. Or a strong preference for local movies.

France e.g. has no modern US movie at all in its top 30 (!) beside Titanic and Avatar, the other 28 are all either local or decades old.... (I mean with decades old movies out of the '40 to '70 mostly, even then, the ones from the US are mostly old animated classics)

In east European countries I've seen that too and also in Asian countries.

 

Or UK, but there I am not sure about data after 2005, as incl 2005 its admissions, after 2005 in $ for a fast glance (Insidekino and BOM)

Based on their data and ignoring ticket prices going up, considering Harry Potter and 007 as local, only a PotC, Avatar, Toy Story 3, SW 7+8, JW, A IW might have surpassed a lot of again rather old titles, but especially based on 3D,... I highly doubt all of those did. But thats only 1 CBM with a slight chance to have done so.

 

 

[terrestrial]

35 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I said so, just in case someone gets high expectations by that.

Besides, the reason was due to the distributor not paying his pending dues which is sorted.

Ahhh good idea

I know, but its still about people got hindered to see a movie of their choice in a cinema, even if in this case it was caused by a 'stupid' move by the distributor

Who knows, if you think it will be around $0.5m and only 0.5m are missing to a certain # or milestone, a lot of ppl might look at their numbers. Or not, if no milestone or... is near 😉