CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Might never be in the top 25, if it’s slower to pass TDKR than Endgame is (Endgame might take < a week).

? how it will probably make around 1.1 + and be at 23

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Overall

Last week (18-24 March) - 95.116

This week (25-31 March) - 45.884

Drop - 51.759

 

China

Last  week - 14.44

This week - 5.51

Drop - 61.84%

 

Without China

last week - 80.676

this week - 40.374

drop - 49.95%

 

Slightly better drop than last week. However as I had mentioned last week it needs to have 45% drops or better. CM missed that mark this week which makes 700m difficult. This week it faces direct competition from Shazam which will definitely perform better than Dumbo in international markets. I don't see how it makes 700m at this point. 690 is far more likely. 

EDIT: Sorry my bad. Thought it did 46 weekend. Yeah 700 seems tough unless AEG boosts it everywhere.

Edited March 31, 2019 by a2k

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

64 more after a 46 weekend seems easy imo, even with Shazam. Am thinking 710 OS + 415 Dom = 1125 WW.

you mean week not weekend 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

you mean week not weekend 

no i misread @ZeeSoh's post. Edited my reply. After 45 week, 65 looks difficult even if possible as long as Endgame boosts it. BP had a good hold Dom when AIW released. CM will also get a good hold Dom that weekend but don't know about OS.

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, a2k said:

EDIT: Sorry my bad. Thought it did 46 weekend. Yeah 700 seems tough unless AEG boosts it everywhere.

still the previous weekend it without china it made around 45 this week with actuals could go 27 a very solid drop anyway we will see ,but i must say i am  a little dissapointed with captain marvel os

Edited March 31, 2019 by john2000

[ZeeSoh]

14 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i think 680-710

 

10 minutes ago, a2k said:

64 more after a 46 weekend for 700 seems easy imo, even with Shazam. Am thinking 710 OS + 410 Dom = 1120 WW.

That 46 number is for the full week from 25 to 31st March. 

 

Getting to 710m OS would require week on week drops of around 35-37% or better (estimated percentages).

Getting to 700 from here would require 40% drops or better. 

Getting to 690 would require 45% drops or better from here on out every week. 

 

The past two weeks its drops without China has hovered around 48-50%. I dont see how it will suddenly start dropping so much better especially with direct competition coming. And by the time Endgame comes out and there is any hope of any boost it will be making hardly a few millions anyways to make much of a difference.

 

At this point I concur with Fake who said above that 680 seems the likely target. That would require 49% drops or better and seems like a reasonable target every week. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

That 46 number is for the full week from 25 to 31st March. 

 

Getting to 710m OS would require week on week drops of around 35-37% or better (estimated percentages).

Getting to 700 from here would require 40% drops or better. 

Getting to 690 would require 45% drops or better from here on out every week. 

 

The past two weeks its drops without China has hovered around 48-50%. I dont see how it will suddenly start dropping so much better especially with direct competition coming. And by the time Endgame comes out and there is any hope of any boost it will be making hardly a few millions anyways to make much of a difference.

 

At this point I concur with Fake who said above that 680 seems the likely target. That would require 49% drops or better and seems like a reasonable target every week. 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

That 46 number is for the full week from 25 to 31st March. 

 

Getting to 710m OS would require week on week drops of around 35-37% or better (estimated percentages).

Getting to 700 from here would require 40% drops or better. 

Getting to 690 would require 45% drops or better from here on out every week. 

 

The past two weeks its drops without China has hovered around 48-50%. I dont see how it will suddenly start dropping so much better especially with direct competition coming. And by the time Endgame comes out and there is any hope of any boost it will be making hardly a few millions anyways to make much of a difference.

 

At this point I concur with Fake who said above that 680 seems the likely target. That would require 49% drops or better and seems like a reasonable target every week. 

That would make 1100 ww tough.

 

It's 10m behind JW2 Dom at the same point with JW2 having a great hold coming week (30% weekend drop after mid-July weekdays) while CM faces Shazam after potentially strong Mon-Thu.

 

BP fell 4% Dom when AIW released. If CM does similar might reduce the gap with JW2 and do 410-415 dom, and then needs 685-690 OS for 1100 WW.

Edited March 31, 2019 by a2k

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

That would make 1100 ww tough.

 

It's 10m behind JW2 Dom at the same point with JW2 having a great hold coming week (30% weekend drop after mid-July weekdays) while CM faces Shazam after potentially strong Mon-Thu.

 

BP fell 4% Dom when AIW released. If CM does similar might reduce the gap with JW2 and do 410-415 dom, and then needs 685-690 OS for 1100 WW.

agreed the dom legs are very good as of now but os its just .....

[ZeeSoh]

13 minutes ago, john2000 said:

If the 3rd highest OS gross ever for a solo SH movie (both with and without China) is disappointing then your expectations were too high to begin with. 

 

This movies was always going to be frontloaded. And with its huge opening there should have been no doubt that this would have short legs. Even still its overall multi (assuming a 1080 gross) will not be too far apart from some other recent MCU solo movies like Thor Ragnarok. 

[john2000]

23 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

If the 3rd highest OS gross ever for a solo SH movie (both with and without China) is disappointing then your expectations were too high to begin with. 

 

This movies was always going to be frontloaded. And with its huge opening there should have been no doubt that this would have short legs. Even still its overall multi (assuming a 1080 gross) will not be too far apart from some other recent MCU solo movies like Thor Ragnarok. 

i didnt have high expecation i just expected better legs than it has right now i nevern thought it would hit 800 os there the performace is fantastic and the total will be very high 680-700 thats nothing to sneeze at but still i was hoping to be a little less frontloaded anyway i still cant understand why it got 200 ow without china ,my expecations after i saw the os without china ow at 210 i thought that it could do around 740-750 ,this is not the bar for success but still  ... any idea why it had that big of ow and also i cant understand why black panther and civil war and iw had better legs as all of them had big ow too

Edited March 31, 2019 by john2000

[cdsacken]

Next weekend drop international drop probably might be above 50% due to Shazam. However, do remember the international drops are going to be softer as well because of End game. Just watch.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Next weekend drop international drop probably might be above 50% due to Shazam. However, do remember the international drops are going to be softer as well because of End game. Just watch.

we will see if endgame will help

[Valonqar]

I'm hoping for EG boost but I don't know whether it'll lose theaters OS to accommodate EG? I know that Disney does double features dom which boost boxoffice but I'm not sure that's the case OS. Hoping for 700M crawl. 🙏

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

I'm hoping for EG boost but I don't know whether it'll lose theaters OS to accommodate EG? I know that Disney does double features dom which boost boxoffice but I'm not sure that's the case OS. Hoping for 700M crawl. 🙏

look even if it doesnt it will still have a fantastic os total

[MaxAggressor]

From DHD:

 

China topped the $150M mark this weekend, cuming $151.5M to date. Across Asia, the best holds were in Korea (-26%) and Japan (-32%).

 

Europe overall dropped by just 44% with solid play continuing in Germany (-35%), Denmark (-37%), France (-39%), the Netherlands(-45%) and the UK (-49%), among others.

 

Across Latin America, Carol Danvers topped $100M to pass Black Panther and saw strong holds in Chile (-27%), Brazil (-43%), Argentina (-48%) and Peru (-49%).

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

look even if it doesnt it will still have a fantastic os total

I know. It's more about my CM Over Ep IX WW Club. 

Edited March 31, 2019 by Valonqar

[tawasal]

No matter what this movie makes from the 1 Briellion mark is just icing on the cake. 

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

i didnt have high expecation i just expected better legs than it has right now i nevern thought it would hit 800 os there the performace is fantastic and the total will be very high 680-700 thats nothing to sneeze at but still i was hoping to be a little less frontloaded anyway i still cant understand why it got 200 ow without china ,my expecations after i saw the os without china ow at 210 i thought that it could do around 740-750 ,this is not the bar for success but still  ... any idea why it had that big of ow and also i cant understand why black panther and civil war and iw had better legs as all of them had big ow too

Go back to the beginning of the thread and see what everyone was expecting when their expectations were not skewed by the high OW. Almost no one had it above 600 and no one even thought of 700. 

 

It should have been obvious that legs will not be that great when the opening was so huge. There was a huge rush to see the movie. Partly because this movie was connected to both IW and Endgame like no other MCU was and people were eager to find out how CM is going to help take Thanos down. Partly because the market was starved for big movie in general and an MCU movie in particular. 

 

Also only BP had better legs overall worldwide than CM. The reasons are obvious for that one. CM’s legs worldwide are going to be the same as IW and better than Civil War. 

[john2000]

18 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Go back to the beginning of the thread and see what everyone was expecting when their expectations were not skewed by the high OW. Almost no one had it above 600 and no one even thought of 700. 

 

It should have been obvious that legs will not be that great when the opening was so huge. There was a huge rush to see the movie. Partly because this movie was connected to both IW and Endgame like no other MCU was and people were eager to find out how CM is going to help take Thanos down. Partly because the market was starved for big movie in general and an MCU movie in particular. 

 

Also only BP had better legs overall worldwide than CM. The reasons are obvious for that one. CM’s legs worldwide are going to be the same as IW and better than Civil War. 

sorry then bc i wasnt member of the forum back then  captain marvel run is nothing less than fantastic  , i just wanted an explanation as its my frist blockbuster that i follow with everything i am sorry if it came with the wrong way  thank you for explaining to me i knew that the legs  wouldnt be as good ,it was just really weird to me why it had that big of ow ,and why the legs will be a little shorter than expected .... thanks for explain to me  hope you didnt mind

Edited March 31, 2019 by john2000