Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[jedijake]

2 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

But NWH & MoM did 5.2x and L&T did 5x, so why WF would do 6-6.5x of Thursday previews?

Veterans Day? ( I asked this before but nobody answered so I looked it up).

 

Doctor Strange's first Saturday was about the same as its Thursday/Friday combined. That was because of an elevated Friday (Veterans Day). Not saying that WF will do exactly that. But if it can pull $30m on Thursday, it may be able to do $60-$70 million on the holiday Friday. Then it could do $75-$80 million on Saturday with good WOM and even drop as low as $45 million on Sunday (unlikely with the other numbers) to get to $200 million.

 

Could even do $50 million Friday, $65 million Saturday, and $50 million Sunday and get there if it has $30m previews.

[interiorgatordecorator]

26 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

But NWH & MoM did 5.2x and L&T did 5x, so why WF would do 6-6.5x of Thursday previews?

churches dont usually meet on thursdays

[XXR & Friends]

26 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

But NWH & MoM did 5.2x and L&T did 5x, so why WF would do 6-6.5x of Thursday previews?

1) MoM had much more initial hype and L&T came out in the summer. More importantly though, they both have below average MCU WOM and that hurt the IM. I expect WF to have at least “A” Cinemascore type reception. 
 

2) Monday is Veterans Day. While not a major holiday, it does help Sunday a bit.
 

3) Black Panther as a franchise is more GA friendly than Thor or Strange, which lends itself to slightly more backload.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

1) MoM had much more initial hype and L&T came out in the summer. More importantly though, they both have below average MCU WOM and that hurt the IM. I expect WF to have at least “A” Cinemascore type reception. 
 

2) Monday is Veterans Day. While not a major holiday, it does help Sunday a bit.
 

3) Black Panther as a franchise is more GA friendly than Thor or Strange, which lends itself to slightly more backload.

Veterans Day is Friday. 

[jedijake]

31 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Veterans Day is Friday. 

Which is good, right?

 

True Friday may act more like a Saturday. Maybe not to the extent of a more widespread holiday, but it should be higher than a normal non-summer Friday. Maybe on the level of Good Friday?

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Which is good, right?

 

True Friday may act more like a Saturday. Maybe not to the extent of a more widespread holiday, but it should be higher than a normal non-summer Friday. Maybe on the level of Good Friday?

Definitely weaker than Good friday. You can look at last time veteran's day holiday was a friday. Slightly boosted friday and tad smaller increase on a saturday. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

did we get 24 hour metrics for trailer 2?

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

did we get 24 hour metrics for trailer 2?

12m main channel YouTube, 20m on the two main channels on Instagram, 11m on Twitter, 8.7m Facebook. Higher than Thor 4 but below DS2.

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely weaker than Good friday. You can look at last time veteran's day holiday was a friday. Slightly boosted friday and tad smaller increase on a saturday. 

Vet day is observed fri there but technically is the sat itself — last vet fri is one year earlier for doctor strange. Seems to have about the same effect though, ~20-25% boosted fri (10-40 for specific movies depending on genre stochastic factors etc).

Edited October 6, 2022 by Legion By Night

[jedijake]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

Vet day is observed fri there but technically is the sat itself — last vet fri is one year earlier for doctor strange. Seems to have about the same effect though, ~20-25% boosted fri (10-40 for specific movies depending on genre stochastic factors etc).

Makes it hard to gauge the possible effect it would have on BPWF since it's the opening day.

[jedijake]

LOL-I guess if this movie underperforms and we scratch our heads, we can always look back and ask why its thread almost got to the 2nd page 4 days after the release of the full trailer!

 

Huge drops are usually reserved for movies that either (a) follow up a not-so-well received predecessor or (b) is a sequel that itself is not so well received. 

 

Option a is out of the question. Let's see if b happens. If neither happen, it's a whole new world of box office.

[Nikostar]

Seems like tickets sells have picked up a lot since the first day. The film is still 5 weeks away.

[Valonqar]

Shocking development that no one could see coming. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Nikostar said:

Seems like tickets sells have picked up a lot since the first day. The film is still 5 weeks away.

i dont want to be a debbie downer but that is simply not possible. OD presales would be the highest until the last day. For example in just under 12 hours it sold like 102K at MTC1 and few hours sold 32K in CIN. Now its more steady pace. Pick up wont happen until social media reactions. 

[jedijake]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

i dont want to be a debbie downer but that is simply not possible. OD presales would be the highest until the last day. For example in just under 12 hours it sold like 102K at MTC1 and few hours sold 32K in CIN. Now its more steady pace. Pick up wont happen until social media reactions. 

Not even if they start pushing TV ads or advertising all over the place?

[Eric the Minion]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Not even if they start pushing TV ads or advertising all over the place?

No. Presales almost always go through the same pattern of "massive first couple days, then a major lull, then a big pickup the week of or just before release". A big red carpet premiere or the review embargo also help, but more TV spots doesn't change anything.

 

And for the record, that's not a bad thing. That's just what happens with every movie, whether it's Endgame or Ishtar 2.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Not even if they start pushing TV ads or advertising all over the place?

Already you trailers online and they did start ticket sales with a new trailer. Dont see tv ads having a huge impact. Plus its not as if Audience is not aware that a MCU movie is opening in November. Really casual GA wont make a decision more than month to go anyway. Social Media/Reviews help push the undecided to go ahead and book their tickets. Still its tiny part of overall sales. Big days are opening day or 2 and then final weekdays when we will see major acceleration. 

[Nikostar]

Any word on the social media embargo know that the premiere is donner. Have a big filling Ryan Coogler will deliver his 4th critical hit.

[fabiopazzo2]

15 hours ago, Nikostar said:

Any word on the social media embargo know that the premiere is donner. Have a big filling Ryan Coogler will deliver his 4th critical hit.

We will see 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

[Gavin Feng]

Did Disney report pre-sale performance or second trailer view?