The Very Boring Dec. 7-9 Weekend Thread l Ralph 16.1 l Grinch 15.1 l Creed 10.3 l Favourite 1.4 l Schindler's 551K l Scots 200K l Vox Lux 162K l Ben is Back 81K l Aquaman opens to 93.6M in China l Who's excited for Christmas?

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by sfran43

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Question is how long will it take them next year?

 

Assuming Mary Poppins can make around 250-300WW in 2019, lets go with 250

Dumbo lets say 500

Cap Marvel 900

Endgame 2B

Penguins 20M

Aladdin 700M

Toy Story 4 1.2B

Lion King 2B

Artemis Fowl 200M

 

That gives them almost 8B before Frozen releases JEEEEEEZUS

[sfran43]

 

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Question is how long will it take them next year?

I guess it depend on when does Fox release start to get counted has Disney release ?

 

Could be not that significant versus those Disney monster, but it could add a billion before end of july.

[Eric Duncan]

26 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Question is how long will it take them next year?

 

Assuming Mary Poppins can make around 250-300WW in 2019, lets go with 250

Dumbo lets say 500

Cap Marvel 900

Endgame 2B

Penguins 20M

Aladdin 700M

Toy Story 4 1.2B

Lion King 2B

Artemis Fowl 200M

 

That gives them almost 8B before Frozen releases JEEEEEEZUS

I think you mean to put a B next to that 20 for Penguins.

[Valonqar]

30 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

MPR will land in #4. At least. we'll see if OS is big enough to take it over I2. It'll need a Frozen/BatB type of run, with Japan going for the musical.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Valonqar

[terrestrial]

30 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Assuming Mary Poppins can make around 250-300WW in 2019, lets go with 250

Dumbo lets say 500

Cap Marvel 900

Endgame 2B

Penguins 20M

Aladdin 700M

Toy Story 4 1.2B

Lion King 2B

Artemis Fowl 200M

Looks a bit optimistic, not?

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Looks a bit optimistic, not?

Some of them sure, but I have no problem moving say 200M from TLK and giving it to Cap Marvel/Aladdin/Fowl or something

[terrestrial]

Just now, DAJK said:

Some of them sure, but I have no problem moving say 200M from TLK and giving it to Cap Marvel/Aladdin/Fowl or something

I think - depending on the quality, and as the past has shown not all are of the same standard, Zeitgeist, local movies in other countries (see what happened to GotG in South Korea), and and and - there is also the possibility do make far less than $200m in the sum

 

CM $900m? O.K., if greatly done, very good promotion... per country!, excellent translation quality, and... maybe. But e.g. Ant-Man numbers are still possible too, even if in her movie is a clear connection to Avengers 4 and the promo shows at least a bit of that..

Same counts for TLK,  Aladdin, Toy Story 4 (there is another one in the making, wow),... Endgame, I guess has a very high chance, but as long as we have not seen the movie, hear reactions of foreign language audience, release date problems... its not a 100% sure thing neither

[sfran43]

Est. / Act.		Diff	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio	Studio Est. / Actual		Diff	% Diff	Theaters	Est. Total	Actual	Wk
1	1	-	Ralph Breaks the Internet	BV	$16,141,000	$16,253,831	$+112,831	+0.7%	3,795	$140,858,885	$140,971,716	3
2	2	-	Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (2018)	Uni.	$15,175,000	$15,039,050	$-135,950	-0.9%	3,841	$223,463,175	$223,324,225	5
3	3	-	Creed II	MGM	$10,322,515	$9,975,167	$-347,348	-3.4%	3,752	$96,471,912	$96,124,564	3
4	4	-	Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald	WB	$6,805,000	$6,953,846	$+148,846	+2.2%	3,451	$145,207,524	$145,356,370	4
5	5	-	Bohemian Rhapsody	Fox	$6,000,000	$6,141,666	$+141,666	+2.4%	2,953	$173,569,170	$173,710,836	6
6	6	-	Instant Family	Par.	$5,600,000	$5,756,311	$+156,311	+2.8%	3,426	$54,160,742	$54,317,053	4
7	7	-	Green Book	Uni.	$3,935,000	$3,905,030	$-29,970	-0.8%	1,181	$19,976,911	$19,946,941	4
8	8	-	Robin Hood (2018)	LG/S	$3,585,000	$3,531,994	$-53,006	-1.5%	2,573	$27,289,193	$27,236,187	3
9	9	-	The Possession of Hannah Grace	SGem	$3,175,000	$3,170,546	$-4,454	-0.1%	2,298	$11,506,549	$11,502,095	2
10	10	-	Widows	Fox	$3,100,000	$3,150,274	$+50,274	+1.6%	2,161	$38,155,806	$38,206,080	4
11	11	-	A Star is Born (2018)	WB	$2,530,000	$2,454,068	$-75,932	-3.0%	1,631	$197,118,597	$197,042,665	10
12	12	-	The Favourite	FoxS	$1,430,000	$1,496,143	$+66,143	+4.6%	91	$3,468,646	$3,534,789	3
13	13	-	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms	BV	$979,000	$1,101,376	$+122,376	+12.5%	1,170	$52,559,194	$52,681,570	6
14	14	-	Schindler's List (2018 re-release)	Uni.	$551,000	$566,760	$+15,760	+2.9%	1,029	$551,000	$566,760	1
15	15	-	Boy Erased	Focus	$420,000	$421,940	$+1,940	+0.5%	622	$6,335,227	$6,335,167	6
16	16	-	At Eternity's Gate	CBS	$310,000	$319,925	$+9,925	+3.2%	172	$1,071,117	$1,081,042	4
17	17	-	Venom (2018)	Sony	$305,000	$307,314	$+2,314	+0.8%	388	$212,716,166	$212,718,480	10
18	18	-	Nobody's Fool	Par.	$255,000	$258,179	$+3,179	+1.2%	368	$31,469,774	$31,472,953	6
20	20	-	Overlord	Par.	$250,000	$255,142	$+5,142	+2.1%	391	$21,470,409	$21,475,551	5
21	19	-2	Can You Ever Forgive Me?	FoxS	$245,000	$255,987	$+10,987	+4.5%	265	$6,977,874	$6,988,861	8
22	22	-	The Wife	SPC	$222,547	$208,756	$-13,791	-6.2%	421	$8,011,664	$7,997,873	17
23	24	+1	Mary Queen of Scots	Focus	$200,000	$194,777	$-5,223	-2.6%	4	$200,000	$194,777	1
24	23	-1	Mirai	GK	$199,076	$199,820	$+744	+0.4%	15	$671,908	$672,652	2
24	26	+2	Vox Lux	Neon	$162,252	$155,714	$-6,538	-4.0%	6	$162,252	$155,714	1
25	28	+3	The Hate U Give	Fox	$150,000	$138,644	$-11,356	-7.6%	235	$29,441,392	$29,430,036	10
26	27	+1	Anna and the Apocalypse	Orion	$141,944	$142,199	$+255	+0.2%	46	$215,076	$215,331	2
27	32	+5	Beautiful Boy (2018)	Amazon	$108,495	$101,712	$-6,783	-6.3%	196	$7,431,533	$7,424,750	9
28	31	+3	Maria by Callas	SPC	$102,313	$103,168	$+855	+0.8%	149	$1,040,232	$1,041,087	6
29	33	+4	The Old Man & the Gun	FoxS	$85,000	$86,500	$+1,500	+1.8%	136	$11,050,284	$11,051,784	11
30	35	+5	Ben is Back	RAtt.	$80,972	$80,733	$-239	-0.3%	4	$80,972	$80,733	1
31	38	+7	Border	Neon	$52,626	$53,720	$+1,094	+2.1%	74	$670,704	$671,799	7
33	37	+4	A Cool Fish	CL	$50,000	$56,312	$+6,312	+12.6%	34	$459,016	$465,328	4
32	44	+12	Suspiria	Amazon	$26,450	$23,835	$-2,615	-9.9%	33	$2,448,069	$2,445,454	7
33	43	+10	A Private War	Aviron	$24,000	$24,006	$+6	+0.0%	35	$1,569,008	$1,569,014	6
34	49	+15	Incredibles 2	BV	$22,000	$18,598	$-3,402	-15.5%	66	$608,578,044	$608,571,642	26
38	51	+13	Tag Along: The Devil Fish	CL	$10,000	$10,974	$+974	+9.7%	8	$10,000	$10,974	1
35	52	+17	Becoming Astrid	MBox	$7,739	$10,038	$+2,299	+29.7%	15	$49,750	$52,049	3
38	61	+23	The Great Buster: A Celebration	Cohen	$2,170	$2,417	$+247	+11.4%	7	$110,032	$110,279	10

[MagnarTheGreat]

This week's stamina update for the Top 10 domestic grossing films >$200M (2015-2018):

 

Spoiler

Top 10 Highest Domestic Grossing Movie >$200M (2015 – 2018)	90% of Gross on Day	Multiplier (DG ÷ FW)	Domestic Gross	First Weekend	Release Month	Rank
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	18	1.99	$330.4M	$166.0M	Mar.	#8 (2016)
Justice League	23	2.44	$229.0M	$93.8M	Nov.	#10 (2017)
Captain America: Civil War	23	2.28	$408.1M	$179.1M	May	#3 (2016)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	23	2.82	$620.2M	$220.0M	Dec.	#1 (2017)
Solo: A Star Wars Story	24	2.53	$213.8M	$84.4M	May	#9 (2018)
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch*	24	3.30	$223.3M	$67.6M	Nov.	#6 (2018)
Furious 7	24	2.40	$353.0M	$147.2M	Apr.	#5 (2015)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	25	3.43	$532.2M	$155.1M	Dec.	#1 (2016)
Avengers: Age of Ultron	26	2.40	$459.0M	$191.3M	May	#3 (2015)
It	28	2.65	$327.5M	$123.4M	Sep.	#7 (2017)
Spectre	29	2.84	$200.1M	$70.4M	Nov.	#10 (2015)
Venom*	29	2.65	$212.7M	$80.3M	Oct.	#10 (2018)
Thor: Ragnarok	29	2.57	$315.1M	$122.7M	Nov.	#8 (2017)
Deadpool 2	29	2.54	$318.5M	$125.5M	May	#5 (2018)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	29	2.82	$416.8M	$148.0M	Jun.	#4 (2018)
Finding Dory	29	3.60	$486.3M	$135.1M	Jun.	#2 (2016)
Suicide Squad	30	2.43	$325.1M	$133.7M	Aug.	#9 (2016)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	30	2.66	$389.8M	$146.5M	May	#5 (2017)
Avengers: Infinity War	30	2.63	$678.8M	$257.7M	Apr.	#2 (2018)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	30	3.78	$936.7M	$248.0M	Dec.	#1 (2015)
Ant-Man and the Wasp	31	2.86	$216.6M	$75.8M	Jul.	#8 (2018)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – P2	31	2.74	$281.7M	$102.7M	Nov.	#7 (2015)
Minions	31	2.90	$336.0M	$115.7M	Jul.	#6 (2015)
Deadpool	31	2.74	$363.1M	$132.4M	Feb.	#6 (2016)
Beauty and the Beast	31	2.88	$504.0M	$174.8M	Mar.	#2 (2017)
Jurassic World	31	3.12	$652.3M	$208.8M	Jun.	#2 (2015)
Cinderella	32	2.96	$201.2M	$67.9M	Mar.	#9 (2015)
Sing	32	7.67	$270.4M	$35.3M	Dec.	#10 (2016)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout	36	3.60	$220.2M	$61.2M	Jul.	#7 (2018)
Spider-Man: Homecoming	36	2.86	$334.2M	$117.0M	Jul.	#6 (2017)
Incredibles 2*	36	3.33	$608.6M	$182.7M	Jun.	#3 (2018)
Despicable Me 3	37	3.65	$264.6M	$72.4M	Jun.	#9 (2017)
The Secret Life of Pets	37	3.53	$368.4M	$104.4M	Jul.	#4 (2016)
Black Panther	38	3.47	$700.1M	$202.0M	Feb.	#1 (2018)
Inside Out	39	3.94	$356.5M	$90.4M	Jun.	#4 (2015)
The Jungle Book	39	3.53	$364.0M	$103.3M	Apr.	#5 (2016)
Wonder Woman	41	4.00	$412.6M	$103.3M	Jun.	#3 (2017)
The Martian	44	4.21	$228.4M	$54.3M	Oct.	#8 (2015)
Zootopia	45	4.55	$341.3M	$75.1M	Mar.	#7 (2016)
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	54	11.18	$404.5M	$36.2M	Dec.	#4 (2017)
average of table	32	3.36
median of table	31	2.87
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
numbers current as of December 9, 2018

 

Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier	Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier
January	2.88	2.66	July	3.30	3.22
February	2.81	2.73	August	3.22	3.00
March	3.02	2.89	September	2.87	2.75
April	2.76	2.65	October	3.02	2.75
May	2.95	2.82	November	3.43	3.23
June	3.13	3.01	December	5.45	4.76
all (1025 movies)				3.21	2.93
excludes 2018 releases
highest month in blue; lowest month in red
numbers from top openings (2008-2017) as of August 16, 2018

 

 

Holding better than Gravity, A Star Is Born is impressively going over >$200M domestic even without an expansion now. If and where it appears and sneaks into the final Top 10 depends on expansion; additionally Mary Poppins and Aquaman are movies that could make that more difficult. Venom ended up with a longer tail than Logan did as well.

 

Weekly Domestic Multiplier	Gravity (4.91)	A Star Is Born*	ASIB Minus Gravity
	Oct. 2013	Oct. 2018
Weekend 1 FSS	$55.79M	$42.91M
Week 1	1.419	1.542	0.123
Week 2	2.501	2.495	-0.006
Week 3	3.218	3.136	-0.082
Week 4	3.694	3.602	-0.092
Week 5	3.992	3.962	-0.030
Week 6	4.200	4.230	0.030
Week 7	4.342	4.381	0.040
Week 8	4.430	4.473	0.042
Week 9	4.486	4.535	0.049
Final Multiplier	4.913	TBD	TBD
Days to 90% Final Gross	56	38
Final Gross	$274.09M	TBD
* still in theaters
NOTE: Gravity received a Week 16 and 17 January expansion

Edited December 10, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat

[Wrath]

I can't decide if it was a boring weekend or not. Nothing new released, but some of the holds were super impressive. 

 

I give it a 5.5/10.