baumer Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 3 hours ago, TMP said: Wow, sorry for having a bad prediction 6 months ago. I'm sure when the next big tentpole underperforms, I'll quote every single over-prediction for it too. Well if you're bold enough to make predictions that are mostly disastrous, then you have to accept it when someone calls you on it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Honestly, Detective Pikachu might be best swept under a rug for BOT's sake. I predicted a $75M opening in the days before it launched and even that ended up being way too high. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, filmlover said: Honestly, Detective Pikachu might be best swept under a rug for BOT's sake. I predicted a $75M opening in the days before it launched and even that ended up being way too high. If we can't criticize (in a respectful manner) our own failures, then how are we supposed to take pride in our successes? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, DAJK said: If we can't criticize (in a respectful manner) our own failures, then how are we supposed to take pride in our successes? I'm just saying, this movie is definitely gonna go down as of the bigger overpredictions. Perhaps even bigger than Mary Poppins Returns (at least one person thought it would impact Endgame without irony but then said person stans anything WB in the first place). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 On 12/30/2018 at 7:02 AM, CoolEric258 said: Dark Phoenix: Does anyone (outside of Arlborn) actually care about this? Does even Fox care about this? The FOX-Men movies are basically played out by this point. Its initial teaser was fine, but nothing all that earth-shattering. The FOX-Men are also expected to be dropped by the time this movie comes out in favor of the new MCU version. Then there’s so many other movies surrounding it with more buzz. Just seems like the interest is non-existent. Maybe summer weekdays will help it cross the century mark, but this will probably go sub-100M. 35/85 (2.43x) On 12/30/2018 at 9:37 AM, WrathOfHan said: Dark Phoenix: As I said earlier, yeah, this ain’t hitting 100M. Even though we are in total CBM domination right now, who the hell cares about the Singer X-Men movies anymore? This would have to be one of the greatest CBMs ever to reach a total near Apocalypse, and given this franchise’s track record, I will go ahead and say it isn’t going to be one of the greatest CBMs. It also doesn’t help that June is a pretty busy month with May holdovers still going strong. Plus, Far from Home is going to hurt its legs badly. Just put this series out of its misery already. 35/75 (2.14x) These were actually controversial at the time and I’m sure most assumed Eric would win easily. Could come down to the wire. I’ll do another summary of medium-big movies after a couple weeks, maybe just before FFH. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 On 1/6/2019 at 9:13 AM, Eric Laurence said: Cats: This is the one movie that I feel could go either way. 200M or sub-100M wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. Cats is to musicals like Ready Player One is to sci-fi. It’s popular, but I don’t think I’ve ever met someone who has actually liked it. And I’ve done musical theater for years, so I know this film’s target audience really well. It also has one of the weirdest casts ever conceived. But on the other hand, musicals are killing the box office lately, Taylor Swift has her fans, and there will probably be some curiosity in how the characters and their make-up will be pulled off. It won’t be a Greatest Showman, but a modest enough hit. 25/135 (5.4x) That Cats prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric is Smiling Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 minute ago, CloneWars said: That Cats prediction. How was I supposed to know that Tom Hooper was going to make the most horrific thing ever conceived? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric is Smiling Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 On 1/1/2019 at 6:39 PM, Eric Laurence said: August 16 PLAYMOBIL: Anya, why? 7/20 (2.86x) On 1/1/2019 at 9:51 PM, WrathOfHan said: August 16 PLAYMOBIL: It feels like I’ve been hearing about this movie for ages. PLAYMOBIL isn’t even LEGO’s main competitor (like anyone can compete with them anymore), and Global Road is a flop studio. Do I need to say more? 10/30 (3x) Lol we sucked at this one 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 (edited) On 1/6/2019 at 10:22 PM, FlashMaster659 said: Endgame OW nearly 2x SW9 OW would be quite something Edited December 27, 2019 by Arendelle Legion 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 On 1/6/2019 at 11:25 AM, YourMother the Edgelord said: Pokémon. The worst you get is the occasionally Rule 34 fanart. I was wrong. The fanbase sucked this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Eric Laurence said: Lol we sucked at this one In fairness, that was a prediction based on an August release date when it could have easily squeezed almost that much out of audiences. December 6 though? The "No1curr" post-Thanksgiving weekend? STX rightfully put it there to die quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 (edited) Last time on Han vs Eric! The Ultimate* Showdown of Ultimate Destiny (of 2019): Spoiler Skipped some small movies, because damn there are way too many. Escape room— Han: 12/30, Eric 12/28, actuals: 18/57. WIN: Han Upside — Han:10/40, Eric: 18/58, actuals: 20/108 WIN: Eric Glass — Han: 75/240, Eric 55/170, actuals: 40/111. WIN: Eric LM2 — Han:55/170 ,Eric: 55/170, actuals: 34/105. WIN: I better not see any more 55/170s from y’all Alita — Han:15/70 , Eric:35/110, actuals: 28/85.5. WIN: Han (first time actuals are between, which is nice to see) HTTYD3 — Han:40/130 , Eric: 43/145, estimate: 55/163. WIN: Eric CM — Han:170/510, Eric: 130/355, estimate: 153/425. WIN: strictly speaking this is inconclusive still. Han needs 432.5+ to win, which does not look favored. Near tie either way. US — Han:60/165, Eric:80/250, estimate:71/176. WIN: Han Dumbo — Han: 60/200, Eric:60/205, estimate: 46/112. WIN:Han Shazam — Han:80/260, Eric:80/240, estimate:53/145. WIN: Eric Spoiler Endgame — Han:280/715, Eric:270/635, personal estimate:290/740. WIN: soon to be Han Leaving CM as uncalled, score of 4-4. A lot of big misses, what does this mean? Does it mean that Han and Eric are bad at prediction? NO! It means that a lot of movies come out each year, and prediction is really hard. Always good to keep in mind how large the true range of possibilities is for movies far away. And I’d like to thank WrathofHan and CoolEric for providing such comprehensive predictions+thoughts. They (and the comments in respond) are fun to look back on in retrospect, without judgement. CM narrowly resolved in Eric's favor, but Endgame was a clear success for Han, leaving our first installment tied up 5-5. How will things turn out for our intrepid forecasters when the dust settles? Find out... right now, on the thrilling conclusion of Han vs Eric! The Ultimate* Showdown of Ultimate Destiny (of 2019): Spoiler HAN is victorious, with a total of 20 to 17, 7 pure ties, 1 inconclusive (TROS). By the way guys, those 7 ties really bum me out. They are boring. Let's try to avoid those in the final numbers for future years, if we can Movie Han total Eric total Actual total Han error Eric error Winner Pikachu 660 390 144 516 246 Eric Wick3 165 105 171 6 66 Han Aladdin 275 228 355.5 81 128 Han KOTM 210 230 110.5 100 120 Han Rocketman 80 120 96 16 24 Han Dark Phoenix 75 85 66 9 19 Han SLOP2 300 285 158 142 127 Eric MIB:I 145 145 80 65 65 Tie TS4 320 365 434 114 69 Eric FvF 120 120 110* 10 10 Tie FFH 350 335 390.5 41 56 Han TLK 620 620 543 77 77 Tie OUaTiH 270 120 141 129 21 Eric H&S 240 195 174 66 21 Eric Playmobil 30 20 1 29 19 Eric It2 310 300 211.5 99 89 Eric Downton 105 97 8 97 Han The Kitchen 120 120 12 108 108 Tie Abominable 85 155 60.5 25 95 Han Gemini Man 160 75 48.5 112 27 Eric Joker 360 270 334 26 64 Han Addams 42 70 97 55 27 Eric Goldfinch 75 75 5 70 70 Tie ZL2 105 40 73 32 33 Han Beautiful Day 150 150 57* 93 93 Tie Artic Dogs 12.5 30 6 7 24 Han Charlie's Angels 40 100 18 22 82 Han Terminator 50 110 62 12 48 Han Last Christmas 110 100 35 75 65 Eric F II 540 475 495* 45 20 Eric Knives Out 65 70 130* 65 60 Eric Juman3 360 360 270* 90 90 Tie Cats 105 125 30* 75 95 Han SWIX 480 665 572.5??? 93??? 93??? ??? LW 130 165 90* 40 75 Han Sum 7264.5 6818 5678.5* 2,549 2,420 Now the sharp eyed among you may notice that while Han won more head-to-heads, Eric actually prevails in the average error category. What's up with that? It's actually painstakingly simple -- Han missed Pikachu by a cool 516M... whereas Eric only missed by 246M Don't do Poke-hype kids. Selected highlights and commentary: Spoiler Both forecasters were too high as a general rule, with Han some 1.6B above the actual sum and Eric roughly 1.15B. The largest % misses are of course Playmobil, making 1M vs the predicted 20/30M, The Goldfinch at 5M vs 75/75M, and The Kitchen, which made 12M vs 120/120M. Han had a big edge in calling November flops, with much more pessimistic (and therefore closer) results on Arctic Dogs, Charlie's Angels, and Terminator. This is actually a very close results, closer than you'd necessarily expect by chance even with perfectly balanced forecasters. Clearly more data is required... *Disclaimers apply. Spoiler 1) Only a somewhat arbitrary subset of movies predicted were considered, for reasons of basic arbitrarial sanity. Mostly I tried to include everything with at least one prediction over 100M, actual over 100M, or epic misses that were too funny to pass up. Either participant is free to appeal if they truly feel like poring over dozens of mid-sized movies that are already consigned to the scrapheap of history 2) Many of the later released movies are not done with their run yet. In many cases it's still possible to resolve a winner conclusively as all plausible finishes lead to the same outcome. The actual column in such cases contains a personal estimate, which is rough. The two most ambiguous cases are Frozen II, where Han would need some stupendous legs to 507.5M to eak out a win, and TROS, where the win boundary is 572.5M and it's anyone's ballgame (though I think Han is favored, which would grow his lead slightly). 3) Eric didn't even predict Downton Abbey, and lost it by forfeit. Edited December 27, 2019 by Arendelle Legion 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...