Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money

[Austin]

I think a conservative or reasonable prediction would look like:

 

Wed - $15M

Thursday- $10M

Friday - $25M

Sat - $25M

Sun - $20M

3-day: $70M

5-day: $95M

 

I personally would like it to gross more than $100M in the 5-day window but we shall see if Cruise goodwill with TGM will come into effect and break MI7 out of the apparent MI franchise ceiling.

[The Dark Alfred]

No way it's gonna have an OD half what Fast X did. Wednesday it will do 25m minimum.

[Austin]

18 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

No way it's gonna have an OD half what Fast X did. Wednesday it will do 25m minimum.

But thats a Friday for Fast X with Thursday previews included. I hope I'm wrong, but in just basing this off previous MI titles. I get there could be a boost from TGM and Cruise goodwill but I'm just going off of previous data that we have.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Austin

[The Dark Alfred]

It's a Wedesday but in the middle of the summer. It also going to have previews.

[Austin]

3 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

It's a Wedesday but in the middle of the summer. It also going to have previews.

Hey, I hope it performs higher than I estimate. I also just started following BO stuff right around John Wick 4 so I am not the most knowledgeable in this field, but I think I've picked up on trends with films and have learned how to comp with other films decently within this timeframe.

[lilmac]

$290M budget. Yikes. That's not counting prints and advertising.

It'll get to the break-even point but Paramount will surely be on pins and needles. 

[Austin]

1 hour ago, lilmac said:

$290M budget. Yikes. That's not counting prints and advertising.

It'll get to the break-even point but Paramount will surely be on pins and needles. 

I'm sure MI8 will have a reasonable budget since they shot it back to back with MI7. Considering all the covid putbacks this movie had, it could have been worse like Fast X.

[Noctis]

It'll clear $130m 5-day IMO.

[Boxx93]

oh, this will the number one movie of the year, baby.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Boxx93

[Flip]

On 5/28/2023 at 2:41 PM, Austin said:

I think a conservative or reasonable prediction would look like:

 

Wed - $15M

Thursday- $10M

Friday - $25M

Sat - $25M

Sun - $20M

3-day: $70M

5-day: $95M

 

I personally would like it to gross more than $100M in the 5-day window but we shall see if Cruise goodwill with TGM will come into effect and break MI7 out of the apparent MI franchise ceiling.

I know I’m optimistic but right now I’m thinking:

 

Wed: 26m

Thurs: 20m

Friday: 32m

Saturday: 34m

Sunday: 28m

 

3-day of 92m

5-day of 138m

[Bob Train]

$150-160m 5-day

$95-105m 3-day

$400-450m final

1.1b-1.2b worldwide depending on China

 

Not the best release date tbh. They should move it a weekend up. Nothing will be making more than $30m that weekend with how Indy is looking.

 

I think the budget is higher because they paid Cruise more upfront, although I dunno I could see it being lower since they filmed them together. Budgeting for multi-part films is tricky.

[The Dark Alfred]

Budget is high due to Covid. The second one will cost way less. 

[GOGODanca]

58 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

$150-160m 5-day

$95-105m 3-day

$400-450m final

1.1b-1.2b worldwide depending on China

 

Not the best release date tbh. They should move it a weekend up. Nothing will be making more than $30m that weekend with how Indy is looking.

 

I think the budget is higher because they paid Cruise more upfront, although I dunno I could see it being lower since they filmed them together. Budgeting for multi-part films is tricky.

covid caused budget to balloon, cruise wouldn't take higher upfront anyways cause he gets backend

[kayumanggi]

 

[Austin]

15 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Is there any way for the movie to move up to July 7th and snag IMAX screens or does Indy 5 have them locked?

[kayumanggi]

6 minutes ago, Austin said:

Is there any way for the movie to move up to July 7th and snag IMAX screens or does Indy 5 have them locked?

 

Aren't the agreements done months before the movies get released? I think once they're locked, that's it, especially in a crowded summer like this. I remember JOHN WICK IV getting back some IMAX screens, though. Was during the time competition wasn't very stiff.

[Ryan Reynolds]

change

32 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Tom's issue is with Paramount, everyone knows Nolan and Imax deal, why choose that date

[Mr Roark]

It is paradoxical because M:I would’ve made way more than Oppenheimer but Nolan is Nolan and has the most privileged relationship with IMAX.

[Austin]

7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Aren't the agreements done months before the movies get released? I think once they're locked, that's it, especially in a crowded summer like this. I remember JOHN WICK IV getting back some IMAX screens, though. Was during the time competition wasn't very stiff.

How is that MI7 can move up 2 days then? Is it that just the weekends get locked with IMAX screens or Paramount was being dumb and pushed the released only 2 days earlier instead of a full week before release dates got solidified?

[Austin]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

change

Tom's issue is with Paramount, everyone knows Nolan and Imax deal, why choose that date

Paramount being stupid is my guess.