Weekend Thread: Friday Estimate | LEGO MOVIE 2 $8.5M | WHAT MEN WANT $6.6M | COLD PURSUIT $ 3.64M | THE PRODIGY $2.02M

[a2k]

THUMB	RANK	FILM	DIS.	SCREENS (CHG)	FRIDAY	3-DAY	TOTAL	WK
	1	Lego Movie 2	WB	4,303	$8.9M	$33.4M	$33.4M	1
	2	What Men Want	Par	2,912	$6.7M	$18.8M	$18.8M	1
	3	Cold Pursuit	LG	2,630	$3.6M	$10.2M	$10.2M	1
	4	The Upside	STX	3,372 (-196)	$1.8M (-28%)	$7.1M (-18%)	$85.6M	5
	5	Glass	Uni	3,254 (-411)	$1M (-18%)	$6.2M (-35%)	$98.2M	4
	6	The Prodigy	Orion	2,530	$2M	$5.3M	$5.3M	1
	7	Green Book	Uni/DW/Part	2,149 (-499)	$857K (-33%)	$3.3M (-23%)	$61.2M	13
	8	Aquaman	WB	2,202 (-724)	$725K (-43%)	$3M (-39%)	$328.2M	8
	9	…Spider-Verse	Sony	1,726 (-508)	$650K (-41%)	$2.8M (-37%)	$179.5M	9
	10	Miss Bala	Sony	2,203	$715K (-74%)	$2.6M (-62%)	$11.7M	2

[DAJK]

Jeez, The Upside has been literally the only upside in 2019's box office. Dreadful, dreadful start to the year. Not just overall numbers, but in terms of headlines really. Pretty much everything is underperforming big-time compared to expectations. Except a Weinstein remake of a French film hardly anyone in North America saw that was shelved for nearly 2 years before being finally released by a minor distributor.

 

Not to go full CJohn here but I'm going to make some predictions just so as not to be disappointed in the future.

 

Alita under 70M

Dragon under 140M

Captain Marvel under 400M

Dumbo under 120

Shazam under 175

Endgame under 150

Pikachu under 250 (OD obviously)

Godzilla under Godzilla '14

Toy Story 4 under 300

Lion King under BatB

Frozen 2 under Frozen 1

Jumanji 2 under 250M

Episode IX under 550M

 

Fuck this year so far. It really does look like though many of the major "franchises" of the 2010's are winding down this year, or at least shifting gears, or new franchises are being created. Hopefully 2020 starts us off fresh.  

[Zakiyyah6]

Lego's opening is a disaster. I thought it wouldn't go under 50mil. I'm honestly shocked. It's not difficult to ascertain why it's falling 50%. The Lego franchise probably always had a short self life because the meta jokes about it being a Lego world couldn't stay fresh for long. So WB should have gone for a sequel instead of Lego Batman and Ninjago.

 

They killed the franchise before the sequel came along. And I'm sorry but good reviews are not the be all, end all the way some claim. If they were then Lego Batman and this new film would have done better numbers. Well, here's hoping that Alita does better than we are all thinking it will. 

[KP1025]

50 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

This ain't the best figures of all time. Besides TFA had $363mn in its 6 days and since the $275mn of Wandering Earth include ticket booking charges as well, the actual gross will be $255mn Approx. That's $108mn less than TFA and $68mn less than Avengers: Infinity War.

 

Also Wandering Earth took almost 670k shows for $255mn compared to roughly 350k for TFA and Infinity War. And elephant in the room, China has 1450mn people, NA has what? 400? not even?

 

Average ticket price is also quite a bit lower in China. Wolf Warriors 2 had 159.59 million admissions in China compared to an estimated 108.12 million admissions for TFA in the U.S + Canada.

[YM!]

This is Ninjago all over again, a nightmare where I can’t wake up.

[a2k]

Identity Thief (non-sequel and opposite genre than Lego2) opened this weekend in 2013 (same calendar configuration)  to 34.5 and legged it to 135.5 for a 3.9x multiplier ( Lego1 itself did less than that with 3.7x+).

 

Identity Thief had a theatre count of 3141 compared to 4000+ for Lego2 so the PTA is much worse.

 

Feb 8–10	1	$34,551,025	-	3,141	-	$11,000	$34,551,025	1
Feb 15–17	2	$23,674,295	-31.5%	3,165	+24	$7,480	$70,962,080	2
Feb 15–18	2	$27,456,470	-20.5%	3,165	+24	$8,675	$74,744,255	2
Feb 22–24	1	$14,017,085	-40.8%	3,222	+57	$4,350	$93,619,615	3
Mar 1–3	2	$9,706,145	-30.8%	3,230	+8	$3,005	$107,433,250	4
Mar 8–10	3	$6,334,220	-34.7%	3,002	-228	$2,110	$116,545,105	5
Mar 15–17	5	$4,419,310	-30.2%	2,842	-160	$1,555	$123,606,175	6
Mar 22–24	9	$2,588,355	-41.4%	2,166	-676	$1,195	$127,770,300	7
Mar 29–31	11	$1,098,215	-57.6%	1,082	-1,084	$1,015	$129,916,105	8

 

Spoiler

Apr 5–7	12	$796,705	-27.5%	721	-361	$1,105	$131,232,335	9
Apr 12–14	15	$541,425	-32.0%	564	-157	$960	$132,022,265	10
Apr 19–21	18	$484,785	-10.5%	480	-84	$1,010	$132,675,995	11
Apr 26–28	20	$350,610	-27.7%	425	-55	$825	$133,160,990	12
May 3–5	20	$204,010	-41.8%	300	-125	$680	$133,454,405	13
May 10–12	19	$192,585	-5.6%	279	-21	$690	$133,714,590	14
May 17–19	22	$214,490	+11.4%	241	-38	$890	$133,989,140	15
May 24–26	21	$207,570	-3.2%	187	-54	$1,110	$134,257,035	16
May 24–27	21	$239,360	+11.6%	187	-54	$1,280	$134,288,825	16
May 31–Jun 2	23	$129,000	-37.9%	150	-37	$860	$134,455,175	17

 

[dxmatrixdt]

the holdovers had very fragile holds from last Friday, I'd wait until tomorrow.  

 

I got,

Miss Bala - 2.8 +0.2

Spider-Man - 3.0 +0.2

Aquaman - 3.2 +0.2

Green Book - 3.5 +0.2

Glass - ????

The Upside - 7.4 +0.3

The Prodigy - 5.8 +0.5

Cold Pursuit - 10.7 +0.5

Lego Movie - 32.5 -0.9

[Legion Again]

Only two more shots for something to do decent before Captain Marvel. Upside aside this has been a remarkable drought.

[Krissykins]

Ouch that’s terrible for Lego Movie, down 51% from the first film. 

 

Very poor for The Prodigy and a bit underwhelming for What Men Want, IMO, too. 

[Zakiyyah6]

The holdovers are fine, it's the openers that are tanking. I'm going to guess that Glass number is a typo because it is impossible for Glass to make 6.2mil off of a 1million Friday.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Average ticket price is also quite a bit lower in China. Wolf Warriors 2 had 159.59 million admissions in China compared to an estimated 108.12 million admissions for TFA in the U.S + Canada.

159/1386 vs 108/360. You get the point? In India, Baahubali 2 110/1320.

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

sadly I think Dragon is next to underperform. Basically following the Kung Fu Panda franchise exactly. Ironic that both franchises had constant decreases despite being considered the best of Dreamworks output

Think both got diluted by having tv shows making the subsequent sequels seem like less of an event to watch. I guess a similar thing is happening with the Lego franchise with the spin-offs diluting the brand. Hopefully something breaks out in the animation market this year otherwise it'll just be the inevitable showdown between Disney (Frozen 2) vs Pixar (Toy Story 4) vs Illumination (Secret Life of Pets 2) again 

[charlie Jatinder]

45 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Lol that's absolutely awful for Lego. Closer to Ninjago than Batman rip. Sucks too, cause it was a pretty good movie. Hopefully Dragon doesn't suffer the same fate. 

 

To be fair, TFA and IW pretty much had "4-day" openings anyways. 40-50+ was made on Thursday for each of those. And China vs. NA's population is irrelevant to the point I'm making. NA is a long-established film market, while China has only been on the rise for a couple of years (maybe a decade or so?). And the fact that its films are even approaching the standard of some of the biggest American films is impressive as hell. 

Come on! Population ain't an irrelevant factor, it is the most important factor. Other than that, China has an advantage in the number of screens handily. The only point against it is ticket prices are around 60% of North America. 

[dxmatrixdt]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

159/1386 vs 108/360. You get the point? In India, Baahubali 2 110/1320.

 

 

U,S, is about population 320.  Was Baahubali pretty evenly distributed in India?  Do you know about how much of the 1320 population have cell phones, free internet and YouTube access?

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

159/1386 vs 108/360. You get the point? In India, Baahubali 2 110/1320.

 

 

Population is not the best metric here. You should compare number of available screens in these markets.

[Shivampa]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

159/1386 vs 108/360. You get the point? In India, Baahubali 2 110/1320.

 

 

Yeah Bahubali 2 is much bigger than these films will ever be

17 hours ago, RealLyre said:

sneaks

 

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Come on! Population ain't an irrelevant factor, it is the most important factor. Other than that, China has an advantage in the number of screens handily. The only point against it is ticket prices are around 60% of North America. 

Is it possible millions of Chinese are seeing movies for free?  Do you know if the media is widespread through China?  I assume Aquaman got to about 5% of the Chinese population, do you think the audience in China is larger than 100 million?  Do piracy #s exceed 100M in Asia?

Edited February 9, 2019 by romancechemicalsWW12

[Shivampa]

Not many people in India have access to Cinema.. Comparing China and USA to India is baseless. 

 

There are not many theatre here to say the least

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, Shivampa said:

Not many people in India have access to Cinema.. Comparing China and USA to India is baseless. 

 

There are not many theatre here to say the least

What do most of the people do?  What are their interests?  Are they allowed to see whatever movies they can?  Are they interested in movies?

[Shivampa]

I think Captain Marvel will also underperform... 

 

130M/325M

WW:800M at Max

 

It is an origin story of character which have never appeared before. 

 

Aquaman: Justice League 

 

Wonder Woman: BvS

 

Black Panther: Civil War 

 

Stop overpredicting Captain Marvel.. It will do fine. People are having very high expectations here.