Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[Arlborn]

26 minutes ago, TheDude391 said:

It's a mix of Wan's direction (and fluid camera work) mixed with actually good action (a rarity in the genre) that pumps it up.

Wan really does a lot of heavy lifting here to make the action stand out a lot more. I love the action sequence in the Italian (?) village for example, it feels so solid and awesome. Movie indeed had better action scenes than most, all I’m hoping for this second one is the same.

[Godzilla]

Maybe I'm just optimistic but I still think this can surprise and become a hit. All it really needs to be is entertaining not even good per say. The holidays are barren this year and this will be the only big spectacle out in theaters. 

 

I'm thinking $200M DOM and $550M OS. $750M WW total would be respectable. 

[Arlborn]

13 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

Maybe I'm just optimistic but I still think this can surprise and become a hit. All it really needs to be is entertaining not even good per say. The holidays are barren this year and this will be the only big spectacle out in theaters. 

 

I'm thinking $200M DOM and $550M OS. $750M WW total would be respectable. 

If it opens to 45M then 200M is surely possible considering the first one got an almost 5x multiplier.

 

Still, I’d be happy with anything over 500M WW for this, considering the circumstances.

[emoviefan]

23 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

Maybe I'm just optimistic but I still think this can surprise and become a hit. All it really needs to be is entertaining not even good per say. The holidays are barren this year and this will be the only big spectacle out in theaters. 

 

I'm thinking $200M DOM and $550M OS. $750M WW total would be respectable. 

I can still see that happening. If the movie is at least entertaining. The first movie was not "good" but sure as hell was entertaining. If this can still get the aquamoms that will only help.  Like they care about the  demise of the DCEU.

[HummingLemon496]

This is already becoming the new hot thread now that the other major CBM is dead in the water

[HummingLemon496]

2 hours ago, Godzilla said:

Maybe I'm just optimistic but I still think this can surprise and become a hit. All it really needs to be is entertaining not even good per say. The holidays are barren this year and this will be the only big spectacle out in theaters. 

 

I'm thinking $200M DOM and $550M OS. $750M WW total would be respectable. 

A 27/73 split is not happening

[HummingLemon496]

I find it interesting how Into the Spider-Verse only made 25% of Captain Marvel + Aquaman domestically back in 2018/2019. But now in 2023 Across the Spider-Verse will gross significantly more than The Marvels + Aquaman 2 domestically

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

A 27/73 split is not happening

It depends, China can make it possible if it explode there 

 

Chinese audiences aren’t into Hollywood much anymore, but James Wan is Chinese (iirc) and Aquaman 2 trailers so far looks like something that could click there, at least aesthetically it looks more like a Chinese production to me than a Hollywood one  

 

It can save this along with Christmas legs unless it have absolutely toxic WOM 

[The GOAT]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

It depends, China can make it possible if it explode there 

 

Chinese audiences aren’t into Hollywood much anymore, but James Wan is Chinese (iirc) and Aquaman 2 trailers so far looks like something that could click there, at least aesthetically it looks more like a Chinese production to me than a Hollywood one  

 

It can save this along with Christmas legs unless it have absolutely toxic WOM 

Bulletproof is predicting $110 million for the market

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It depends, China can make it possible if it explode there 

 

Chinese audiences aren’t into Hollywood much anymore, but James Wan is Chinese (iirc) and Aquaman 2 trailers so far looks like something that could click there, at least aesthetically it looks more like a Chinese production to me than a Hollywood one  

 

It can save this along with Christmas legs unless it have absolutely toxic WOM 

The China total would have to equal or surpass the US total for a 27/73 split to happen. $200M domestic would mean like $600M-ish WW probably.

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Bulletproof is predicting $110 million for the market

Seems reasonable, but it’s a very sensitive market, if it’s awful it can go much lower and if it’s very well received there it can go way higher 

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

The China total would have to equal or surpass the US total for a 27/73 split to happen. $200M domestic would mean like $600M-ish WW probably.

I am expecting bad reviews but somewhat decent WOM due to super eye candy visuals and action sequences. 
 

The SH genre is definitely saturated, so i’m expecting a muted OW, but lack of direct competition for weeks and Christmas should help with that. Along with that, Momoa and action is a good hook OS, i’m expecting a big drop from the first but not a complete collapse.
 

Right now, with a decent WOM (at least B+ on CS which isn’t bad for DC brand historically) i would guess: 

38M OW / ~150M DOM (~3.9x) 

150-170M CHI 

210-230M OS-C

~530M WW (+70% from OS and heavily from China) 

 

In resume, a big drop compared to the first one and a somewhat disappointment for a 220M budget, but not a disaster. 

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I am expecting bad reviews but somewhat decent WOM due to super eye candy visuals and action sequences. 
 

The SH genre is definitely saturated, so i’m expecting a muted OW, but lack of direct competition for weeks and Christmas should help with that. Along with that, Momoa and action is a good hook OS, i’m expecting a big drop from the first but not a complete collapse.
 

Right now, with a decent WOM (at least B+ on CS which isn’t bad for DC brand historically) i would guess: 

38M OW / ~150M DOM (~3.9x) 

150-170M CHI 

210-230M OS-C

~530M WW (+70% from OS and heavily from China) 

 

In resume, a big drop compared to the first one and a somewhat disappointment for a 220M budget, but not a disaster. 

Honestly I can see that China total happening. Fast and Furious 10 only did $145M domestically but it did $139M in China so the China and domestic totals were almost equal.

Edited November 11, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

We will get the long range forecast from box office pro in two weeks

[marveldcfox]

Will not reach anywhere close to the original, but rooting for this movie to have a respectable boxoffice take.

 

They need to market this as a fantasy action adventure in all markets rather than a comic book flick.

Edited November 11, 2023 by marveldcfox

[HummingLemon496]

When will tickets go on sale?

 

Me waiting for pre-sale tracking to start:

Edited November 12, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

Tired: Across the Spider-Verse domestic above The Marvels + Aquaman 2 domestic

Wired: Across the Spider-Verse worldwide above The Marvels + Aquaman 2 worldwide

Inspired: Across the Spider-Verse overseas above The Marvels + Aquaman 2 overseas

[martin]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Tired: Across the Spider-Verse domestic above The Marvels + Aquaman 2 domestic

Wired: Across the Spider-Verse worldwide above The Marvels + Aquaman 2 worldwide

Inspired: Across the Spider-Verse overseas above The Marvels + Aquaman 2 overseas

Calm down bestie.

At this points u troll us with all ur posts....

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, martin said:

Calm down bestie.

At this points u troll us with all ur posts....

No, it's not a troll. At this point, the "tired" is basically locked, the "wired" is pretty likely, and the "inspired" is probably not happening but it exists as a super duper outside possibility. 

[HummingLemon496]

Mark my words, the day tickets for this go on sale, it'll be a clear flop, and the Infinity Gauntlet of 2023 comic book movie flops will be complete