Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[Arlborn]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

These tracking numbers are awful. What's the excuse if this one flops too? Yet another 1B movie whose sequel is about to implode.

Dead universe's death rattle ~

[HummingLemon496]

I find it funny how this can completely bomb and also become the leggiest CBM sequel of the century just because it's December

 

I think right now the midpoint is 4.5 legs and 5.5 IM. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I find it funny how this can completely bomb and also become the leggiest CBM sequel of the century just because it's December

 

I think right now the midpoint is 4.5 legs and 5.5 IM. 

It would be kinda entertaining if this is capped at like 100 DOM in interest if it had a 10/95 run or something. It would be both insane legs and one of the biggest box office bombs ever, which I don’t think we’ve ever gotten before lol

[HummingLemon496]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It would be kinda entertaining if this is capped at like 100 DOM in interest if it had a 10/95 run or something. It would be both insane legs and one of the biggest box office bombs ever, which I don’t think we’ve ever gotten before lol

INB4 Aquaman does 2*5 for a $10m opening weekend. . ./s (?)

[HummingLemon496]

On 9/14/2023 at 11:48 PM, HummingLemon said:

After watching the trailer, I actually think this will do decent. $700-800M WW

 

 

[Hatebox]

I’m sorry but no one had any excuse for ever thinking this would do well. 

[HummingLemon496]

11 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

I’m sorry but no one had any excuse for ever thinking this would do well. 

Are you sure about that? The Christmas legs are coming to save it. . .just watch

 

 

No but seriously I said $750M WW right after the trailer. I guess my reasoning was it would work as its own standalone movie and make some decent money during the holidays kinda like how the OG movie did well after Justice League. But now it's selling less than freaking Blue Beetle and Shazam 2 so yeah it's gonna bomb.

Edited November 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[SpiderByte]

To be clear, the first opened to 65+ and made the lions share of its money internationally. So a weaker OW doesn't necessarily mean it's The Marvels again 

[HummingLemon496]

18 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

To be clear, the first opened to 65+ and made the lions share of its money internationally. So a weaker OW doesn't necessarily mean it's The Marvels again 

Every day from release to New Years is a basically weekend day, even the way sales are going this would have to be 15% RT/C+ CS level bad to not outgross The Marvels by default. 

 

(however, The Marvels will finish <$200M WW so that's not a high bar)

Edited November 25, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[excel1]

Comic book films needs to be seriously concerned if this doesn't top $100m domestic. The cliff for them has come sharp and severe. Feels very, very similar to what became of the huge scale epic in the mid 2000s.

[HummingLemon496]

25 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Comic book films needs to be seriously concerned if this doesn't top $100m domestic. The cliff for them has come sharp and severe. Feels very, very similar to what became of the huge scale epic in the mid 2000s.

Yeah <$100M would just be sad given the holidays, but if it's badly received it could go under. The midpoint for the long range forecast is $137M. Every CBM this year with bad reception (Quantumania, Shazam, Flash, Marvels) absolutely tanked compared to the long range forecast. With 45/B it could go with like a 3.5*5.5*4.5=$86M type run

 

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[SpiderByte]

I think in the long term the big thing is budgets under 200 mil.  Except for Spider-Man and Batman obviously.

[FunkMiller]

If this does as badly as its predicted to, and given everything else that's gone on this year, we could well be looking at the death knell of the superhero genre as the main driving force of movies. Thank god. It's become creatively absolutely bankrupt.

 

I'd be more than happy at this stage for everything to go away, apart from maybe one or two movies total a year, starring the most popular characters.

[HummingLemon496]

8 hours ago, FunkMiller said:

If this does as badly as its predicted to, and given everything else that's gone on this year, we could well be looking at the death knell of the superhero genre as the main driving force of movies. Thank god. It's become creatively absolutely bankrupt.

 

I'd be more than happy at this stage for everything to go away, apart from maybe one or two movies total a year, starring the most popular characters.

I predicted $750M right after the trailer for some reason 

Edited November 25, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[WittyUsername]

Hard to believe that just last year, everyone was going on about what a horrible flop Black Adam was, and now there’s a decent chance that it’ll outgross every DC film released this year.  

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Hard to believe that just last year, everyone was going on about what a horrible flop Black Adam was, and now there’s a decent chance that it’ll outgross every DC film released this year.  

Black Adam > Aquaman 2 WW-China is basically locked the way sales are going, so yeah I would put it as a 99.9% chance at this point.

[SpiderByte]

Wait is this not releasing in China?

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

Wait is this not releasing in China?

Aquaman 2 is releasing in China, but Black Adam didn't. So WW-China is the fair comparison between the two

[Arlborn]

21 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Aquaman 2 is releasing in China, but Black Adam didn't. So WW-China is the fair comparison between the two

That’s fair.
 

Still not 99% sure it’ll go under Black Adams sans China, but it does really look that way, which is all kinds of crazy even knowing all the good reasons for that.

Oh well, this movie was never getting a sequel anyway, so as long as it is as fun as the first one, at least I’ll have another movie to like out of it.

[HummingLemon496]

6 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

That’s fair.
 

Still not 99% sure it’ll go under Black Adams sans China, but it does really look that way, which is all kinds of crazy even knowing all the good reasons for that.

Oh well, this movie was never getting a sequel anyway, so as long as it is as fun as the first one, at least I’ll have another movie to like out of it.

Maybe if it's really well received it could beat Black Adam but it would need like a 6x+ multiplier. So yeah 99% chance is too extreme, right now it's like 80%

Edited November 25, 2023 by HummingLemon496