Wednesday numbers: Shazam $2.60M | Pet Sematary $1.36M | Dumbo $936K | US $912K | CM $896K

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

@terrestrial @TimmyRiggins

I looked at THR and most of their articles are saying 100m too

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/heat-vision/shazam-tracking-45m-bow-pet-semetary-could-unearth-25m-1194842

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-shazam-zooms-535m-bow-pet-semetary-digs-up-25m-1199992

 

So with all 3 trades saying the same where is this notion that most websites are not following Deadline’s numbers coming from?

Quote

if “Shazam!” becomes a hit, it’ll be the third success story in a row for DC Entertainment as the studio attempts to fashion an alternative to the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Warner Bros. spent $80 million to produce “Shazam!,” roughly half of what it spent to make “Aquaman” and “Wonder Woman.”

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/shazam-box-office-opening-weekend-pet-sematary-1203177258/

 

I guess its again the difference between production budget and the agreed on budget, you will know, but as we have so many newbies for the moment:

 

Agreed on budget is what for the calculation how much it needs to make usually get used as a starting point.

If a movie films in a region where they can get e.g. tax rebates they can add that to the budget they get from their studio financiers.

Or someone knows already about later to pay money to e.g. actors, producers,... and added it already

Or a mix or

 

Reading through a few formulations, I guess its the production budget vs 'officially' budget confusion again

Deadline used recently more often the production budget in their texts.

But: I trust in general Variety, THR,... over Deadline, if there is still a difference I am with them.

 

If I'd known this get so divided, I'd saved all the articles as they were, last weekend were some not nice tries to make Shazam! look bad in a way that seemed to aim at stirring the pot.

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[pepsa]

8 minutes ago, Nero said:

I don't get humour. So when AEG releases basically Shazam which will play on less screens or theatres will gross very less so how come it will be good for Shazam. And this is hypothetical when AEG releases Shazam won't be playing at all..

I think the point he was trying to convey was:

If Shazam is still making a good amount of money by the time EG releases (and hurts it badly) that would be good because that would mean untill EG release it had great legs. The other senario would be that Shazam would have bad drops and make almost no money by the time EG release so it can't hurt Shazam at all because it was already so low.

 

So I think he's trying to say if shazam can be hurt by EG it will be because shazam had good drops up untill and would have made a good amount of money uptill EG release.

 

For example situation 

1: Shazam 3rd weekend did $15m

2. Shazam 3rd weekend only did $8m

 

Let's say EG makes Shazam drop 64%.

 

1:  this would mean a 5.4m 4th weekend for shazam (9.6 lower than it's 3rd weekend)

2: this would mean a 2.9m 4th weekend for shazam (5.1 lower than it's 3rd weekend)

 

So you can cleary see that in situation 1 EG would cut it's leg by a lot more than in situation 2 but situation 1 is still a lot better than situation 2 because is would have grossed a lot more up until EG's release.

 

[terrestrial]

9 minutes ago, Nero said:

I don't get humour. So when AEG releases basically Shazam which will play on less screens or theatres will gross very less so how come it will be good for Shazam. And this is hypothetical when AEG releases Shazam won't be playing at all..

If Shazam! is dropping so bad it will be... lets say an extreme example, at $2m the weekend even without Endgame releasing, then Endgame wont matter.

He hopes it get hit, because that would proof his actual fear - it dropping very badly - as wrong.

 

If it gets hit, Shazam! will have nice drops and reaches a way higher end-result as if it drops early on badly, and reaches only a part of the first example

[sfran43]

 

[ZeeSoh]

12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/shazam-box-office-opening-weekend-pet-sematary-1203177258/

 

I guess its again the difference between production budget and the agreed on budget, you will know, but as we have so many newbies for the moment:

 

Agreed on budget is what for the calculation how much it needs to make usually get used as a starting point.

If a movie films in a region where they can get e.g. tax rebates they can add that to the budget they get from their studio financiers.

Or someone knows already about later to pay money to e.g. actors, producers,... and added it already

Or a mix or

 

Reading through a few formulations, I guess its the production budget vs 'officially' budget confusion again

Deadline used recently more often the production budget in their texts.

But: I trust in general Variety, THR,... over Deadline, if there is still a difference I am with them.

 

If I'd known this get so divided, I'd saved all the articles as they were, last weekend were some not nice tries to make Shazam! look bad in a way that seemed to aim at stirring the pot.

 

The Variety article I quoted on the last page is a much recent article than the one you are quoting. Maybe the earlier one was a guess and the recent one more accurate?

 

Regardless I dont really care much about what its budget was. I only wanted to point out that the most recent number from all 3 trades was 100 or close to it. 

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

The Variety article I quoted on the last page is a much recent article than the one you are quoting. Maybe the earlier one was a guess and the recent one more accurate?

 

Regardless I dont really care much about what its budget was. I only wanted to point out that the most recent number from all 3 trades was 100 or close to it. 

The earlier one is still from 2 weeks later than the first time DL wrote $100m.

 

That was a very good point, as I didn't checked it after the annoyances of last weekend over that detail 😉

(and I am not even into teen behaving / centred characters for that I have my pupils, it was only the tries of last weekend to start fights that has me reacting still. I think one of those is suspended for a year now)

[pepsa]

@terrestrial I do think they totaly miss represent the Rampage case here.

 

Anyway, that multiplier is pretty close to the 1.23x multiplier of Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s first week ($117 million from a $95 million debut five years ago). The two comparisons that will (hopefully) be relevant going forward are the aforementioned Captain America sequel (which earned $259 million domestic from a $95 million launch just before the start of the summer season in 2014) and Rampage ($101 million from a $35 million launch last April). The Dwayne Johnson video game adaptation fell just 43% in its second weekend but took a hit from Avengers: Infinity War in weekend three. But the Brad Peyton-directed flick still earned $428 million worldwide on a $120 million budget.

There has been much talk about how DC Films’ Shazam! is going to be crushed by Avengers: Endgame when the latter opens two weeks from today. And, relatively speaking, that’s probably true. Sure, Shazam! may stick around due to its kid-friendly content and its “mere” 132-minute running time (as opposed to the 182-minute Avengers finale), but I’d wager that Captain Marvel is more likely to get a “rising waters lift all boats” boost from the MCU sequel than the DC Films fantasy. That being said, Rampage earned $30 million of its eventual $101 million cume AFTER Avengers: Infinity War debuted. And it had one less week to do its thing versus....

 

So I don't think it's good to say but rampage made more than $30m after IW release, as if that $30m was good for the movie.

It totaly wasn't. Because Rampage did have a good drop in it's second weekend (43.8% drop) this would mean if not for IW it would likely have dropped only 40% if not less in it's 3rd weekend. Let's do the calculations if it wasn't IW but a less big movie.

 

Week:

1: $45.60m

2: $25.45m (added 200k because it woudn't drop as much on thurday obviously 😛 ) 

3: $15.27m (using a 40% drop because maybe another 100m movie would have opened)

4: $9.83m

5. $7.35m

6. $3.35m

 

After 6 weeks it would have had $106,85m Rampage made another 6m after that (if we exclude te fudging to 101m) So I use an $98.5m 'normal total). Rampage had a $1.577m 6th weekend so in my case it's 6th weekend would be 2.124 times bigger. So let's add another $12.75m on top o the $106.85m and we get $119.6m and no need for fudging. This would mean instead of an extra $27.6m after it's secound week (using the not fudged number) it would have been $48.6m so IW literaly almost cut the late legs in half (-43.2%). So in rampage case that is a pretty big deal I think.

 

Disclaimer I know that this is just speculation and the slate would have look different if IW wasn't there but I do think -40 is fair because Rampage "only" dropes 54% against DP2 (OW $125m) with it's screen count droppig by 40% (witch would not happen in it's 3rd weekend IW only made it drop by 18%) so even with an $125m opener instead of IW the 40% drop seems very reasonable. 

 

Btw all of this won't be such a big deal for Shazam because it will have had 3 full weeks of run before EG will hit it. Still late legs will be murdered by EG. 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2019 by pepsa

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I do think they totaly miss represent the Rampage case here.

I think he seeks for any possible silver lining. If you want to interpret it as such.

It does sound all a bit strange, incl his leg cut hope.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[terrestrial]

The Numbers‏ @MovieNumbers 8m8 minutes ago

More

Wednesday final numbers: https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart …...... #Shazam $2.6m/$67.4m, #PetSemataryMovie $1.4m/$29.9m, #Dumbo $937k/$79.9m.....

 

Quote

Daily Domestic Chart for Wednesday April 10, 2019

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$2,607,476	-47%	4,217	$618	$67,400,140	6
2	(2)	Pet Sematary	Paramount Pictures	$1,368,104	-44%	3,585	$382	$29,895,184	6
3	(3)	Dumbo	Walt Disney	$936,514	-46%	4,259	$220	$79,878,510	13
4	(4)	Us	Universal	$912,295	-36%	3,512	$260	$155,691,885	20
5	(5)	Captain Marvel	Walt Disney	$896,187	-35%	3,573	$251	$377,027,296	34
6	(7)	Unplanned	Pure Flix Entertain…	$334,808	-34%	1,516	$221	$13,729,903	13
7	(6)	The Best of Enemies	STX Entertainment	$329,684	-54%	1,705	$193	$5,819,993	6
8	(9)	Hotel Mumbai	Bleecker Street	$169,903	-39%	930	$183	$7,022,408	20
9	(10)	Wonder Park	Paramount Pictures	$150,104	-31%	2,281	$66	$42,595,804	27
10	(11)	How to Train Your Dragon: T…	Universal	$121,085	-32%	1,928	$63	$157,121,825	48
11	(13)	The Mustang	Focus Features	$81,135	-23%	350	$232	$2,313,050	27
12	(14)	Gloria Bell	A24	$47,398	-18%	642	$74	$5,152,011	34
13	(15)	The Aftermath	Fox Searchlight	$44,276	-23%	344	$129	$1,229,106	27
14	(-)	Green Book	Universal	$19,150	-27%	213	$90	$84,826,046	146
15	(-)	Alita: Battle Angel	20th Century Fox	$18,253	-22%	311	$59	$85,375,954	56
-	(-)	The Upside	STX Entertainment	$15,373	-35%	274	$56	$107,892,925	90
-	(-)	High Life	A24	$10,567	+20%	4	$2,642	$127,308	6
-	(-)	Isn’t it Romantic	Warner Bros.	$10,245	-21%	216	$47	$48,461,067	57
-	(-)	The LEGO Movie 2: The Secon…	Warner Bros.	$9,459	-15%	322	$29	$105,144,156	62
-	(-)	They Shall Not Grow Old	Warner Bros.	$8,901	+6%	198	$45	$17,802,527	115
-	(-)	Fighting With My Family	United Artists	$7,961	-34%	207	$38	$22,754,230	56
-	(-)	Bohemian Rhapsody	20th Century Fox	$6,986	-22%	58	$120	$216,210,777	160
-	(-)	What Men Want	Paramount Pictures	$6,535	-30%	123	$53	$54,606,556	62
-	(-)	The Favourite	Fox Searchlight	$2,569	-48%	22	$117	$34,242,175	139
-	(-)	Mary Poppins Returns	Walt Disney	$1,223	-5%	52	$24	$171,956,231	113
-	(-)	Climax	A24	$1,096	+43%	6	$183	$816,258	41
-	(-)	Ralph Breaks The Internet	Walt Disney	$1,072	-5%	62	$17	$201,089,881	141
-	(-)	Arctic	Bleecker Street	$1,047	-18%	49	$21	$2,340,802	69
-	(-)	If Beale Street Could Talk	Annapurna Pictures	$604	+202%	9	$67	$14,914,349	118
-	(-)	The Prodigy	Orion Pictures	$251	+41%	8	$31	$14,856,102	62
-	(-)	Vice	Annapurna Pictures	$245	-40%	6	$41	$47,836,037	107

 

[cdsacken]

Good for CM, not great. Hoping for 8+ weekend getting to around 386.

[Barnack]

56 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I guess its again the difference between production budget and the agreed on budget, you will know, but as we have so many newbies for the moment:

 

Agreed on budget is what for the calculation how much it needs to make usually get used as a starting point.

If a movie films in a region where they can get e.g. tax rebates they can add that to the budget they get from their studio financiers.

Or someone knows already about later to pay money to e.g. actors, producers,... and added it already

Or a mix or

Agreed on budget fully take into account expected tax rebates, they go when they are sold or able to be used by the financier later. Tax rebate once they get there (depending on the jurisdiction it can be a year after the production) goes into the financier pocket.

 

Financier accept the risk of a 60m production that will cost them 50m because of tax rebate, they will not necessarily have agreed to spend 50m on a movie of a 50m cost (a smaller product) and after that the producer/director getting themselve tax rebate on their own and spending more (or if they do not put it in their pockets).

 

I doubt the difference between publication is one taken the liberty of calculating the bonus on a gross estimate of where the movie would end up making or anything like that, more that it is an unknown secret information and that they hear different number from different source and sometime yes one publication talking (and using has a sentence) about how much they spent on the movie while someone else is talking about the expected net budget.

[Alli]

Vice is still in theaters? And i now see it only made 47M. What a flop

Edited April 11, 2019 by Alli

[Ms Lady Hawk]

55 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Good for CM, not great. Hoping for 8+ weekend getting to around 386.

 Always leave open the possibility of being surprised, but off of that Wednesday, 8 million seems unlikely. It could buck the trend and increase tomorrow. Wouldn’t say that can’t happen. But I see it something like this, all things being equal (to past weeks):

 

Thursday- 895K

Friday- 1.97M (+120)

Saturday- 3.15M (+60)

Sunday- 2.205 (-30)

Total- 7.325M (~ -42% from last week)

 

The Sunday hold is optimistic as it’s consistently fallen between 32-34%. 

Domestic total- ~385..2M.

[TalismanRing]

23 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

 Always leave open the possibility of being surprised, but off of that Wednesday, 8 million seems unlikely. It could buck the trend and increase tomorrow. Wouldn’t say that can’t happen. But I see it something like this, all things being equal (to past weeks):

 

Thursday- 895K

Friday- 1.97M (+120)

Saturday- 3.15M (+60)

Sunday- 2.205 (-30)

Total- 7.325M (~ -42% from last week)

 

The Sunday hold is optimistic as it’s consistently fallen between 32-34%. 

Domestic total- ~385..2M.

Schools were all in as of Monday - hence the larger that recent Monday drops.  So Friday jumps should be higher than they've been recently.

 

 

Friday, April 6, 2018
 

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr

>Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 - A Quiet Place Par. $18,861,111 - - 3,508 $5,377 $18,861,111 1 2 - Blockers Uni. $7,768,185 - - 3,379 $2,299 $7,768,185 1 3 1 Ready Player One WB $6,788,910 +93% -55% 4,234 $1,603 $78,649,435 9 4 3 Tyler Perry's Acrimony LGF $2,464,441 +106% -66% 2,006 $1,229 $25,749,021 8 5 2 Black Panther BV $2,348,902 +80% -43% 2,747 $855 $659,274,642 50 6 4 I Can Only Imagine RAtt. $2,150,325 +91% -41% 2,894 $743 $62,877,527 22 7 - Chappaquiddick ENTMP $1,892,035 - - 1,560 $1,213 $1,892,035 1 8 12 Isle Of Dogs FoxS $1,432,735 +403% +52% 554 $2,586 $8,881,669 15 9 5 Sherlock Gnomes Par. $1,410,215 +31% -54% 2,733 $516 $29,708,276 15 10 - The Miracle Season Mirr/LD $1,401,107 - - 1,707 $821 $1,401,107 1 11 6 Pacific Rim Uprising Uni. $1,290,590 +62% -61% 2,627 $491 $51,300,650 15 12 7 A Wrinkle in Time BV $943,096 +30% -50% 1,701 $554 $87,915,852 29

 

Friday, April 13, 2018
 

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr

>Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 - Rampage (2018) WB (NL) $11,543,321 - - 4,101 $2,815 $11,543,321 1 2 1 A Quiet Place Par. $10,503,630 +189% -44% 3,589 $2,927 $77,539,515 8 3 - Truth or Dare Uni. $8,283,885 - - 3,029 $2,735 $8,283,885 1 4 3 Blockers Uni. $3,276,145 +159% -58% 3,418 $958 $29,909,815 8 5 2 Ready Player One WB $2,972,831 +119% -56% 3,661 $812 $106,375,629 16 6 8 Isle Of Dogs FoxS $1,568,172 +396% +10% 1,939 $809 $15,019,036 22 7 4 Black Panther BV $1,449,293 +131% -38% 2,180 $665 $669,904,815 57 8 5 I Can Only Imagine RAtt. $1,090,481 +106% -49% 2,573 $424 $72,242,046 29 9 6 Tyler Perry's Acrimony LGF $1,085,108 +127% -56% 1,332 $815 $35,260,585 15 10 7 Chappaquiddick ENTMP $843,193 +93% -55% 1,645 $513 $8,824,576 8 11 12 The Miracle Season Mirr/LD $635,692 +269% -55% 1,707 $372 $5,464,528 8

[terrestrial]

47 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Agreed on budget fully take into account expected tax rebates, they go when they are sold or able to be used by the financier later. Tax rebate once they get there (depending on the jurisdiction it can be a year after the production) goes into the financier pocket.

 

Financier accept the risk of a 60m production that will cost them 50m because of tax rebate, they will not necessarily have agreed to spend 50m on a movie of a 50m cost (a smaller product) and after that the producer/director getting themselve tax rebate on their own and spending more (or if they do not put it in their pockets).

 

I doubt the difference between publication is one taken the liberty of calculating the bonus on a gross estimate of where the movie would end up making or anything like that, more that it is an unknown secret information and that they hear different number from different source and sometime yes one publication talking (and using has a sentence) about how much they spent on the movie while someone else is talking about the expected net budget.

they do not always know where they will film before green-lightning a movie with a certain budget, they do not know if the tax % will be stable till they start to actual film, when they start to go into production preparation, and some other reasons why there is a reason different numbers get spoken about.

Remember the people going at each throats for claiming faked budgets as a proof a movie making minus e.g. during GotG 1 release? That was brutal, here and at IMDb (at that time their forum/message board still was up). So many details what adds to all that. Best method to make it simple to see for all was IMHO what they did then:

then in a press release; that # was the agreed on budget, that # was what Gun spend too much (I think that was $12m), and that # was the production budget (the highest number). Since then I use it, as it seems the best way to explain why different insiders have different data without any of them being liars or worse.