Eric the Minion Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, JB33 said: Are you kidding me? Remember, I'm going back to before the film released. There was talk about it possibly being #1 every weekend until It Chapter Two. Wasn't that only like one or two people? How does that apply to "everyone"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said: ...nobody said that? Ugh, this revisionist history is irritating. Went through pages 50-100 of TLK thread just to see if I really am losing my mind here and the predictions were all in my head, and nope. Nothing but talk of 700+, 600 "floors", 200+ OWs, and "the first 1b dom grosser???" Edited July 30, 2019 by MovieMan89 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the Minion Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Just now, MovieMan89 said: Ugh, this revisionist history is irritating. Went through pages 50-100 of TLK thread just to see if I really am losing my mind here and the predictions were all in my head, and nope. Nothing but talk of 700+, 600 "floors", 200+ OWs, and "the first 1b dom grosser???". Ah yes, because posts made over a year ago when we had little to nothing to work off of is much more indicative of how people felt a couple weeks before release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said: Ah yes, because posts made over a year ago when we had little to nothing to work off of is much more indicative of how people felt a couple weeks before release. What people changed their predictions to mere days before opening has never been what I'm talking about. I'm talking about slogging through endless ridiculous predictions for the majority of 2018 and 2019. Anyone can readjust days to release after reviews and tracking. Not to mention, most still seemed to be on board the 600+ train heading into opening. Edited July 30, 2019 by MovieMan89 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said: Ah yes, because posts made over a year ago when we had little to nothing to work off of is much more indicative of how people felt a couple weeks before release. but that's not fair. You shouldn't go by tracking or what the experts say two weeks before film opens. People that make predictions a year out should be called upon even more vociferously than those who make predictions two weeks out because when you make a prediction without anything to go on that's what you truly feel. Then you get stats and predictions and experts and that is not a true indication of what your true feelings are. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: But it's not bigger in admissions. Then there's Django which opened to $63m over a 6 day (Tues- Sun) Christmas week. But we are talking true dollars here regardless of admissions. And you can't really compare a midweek opener to a prober weekend opener. And it's for him compared to his previous movies a smash hit opening weekend. And I am only saying this in the scale of 30m to 40m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said: DOM drop is 63% Sun to Mon and 57% week-over-week for TLK...if the estimate holds... Not very good. I’m sure it’ll stabilise with no direct family competition. 40 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said: That's a lot of qualifications for something that will barely break even by standards everyone else gets measured by, and will likely lose money if it doesn't approach $400mil WW.... I'm not criticizing the performance so much as I'm criticizing lazy writing... Hmm, you do know the film doesn’t just cease to make money when it stops playing it cinemas? Films can make $100’s of millions worldwide from ancillary market. Blu Ray, DVD, 4K, VOD, Streaming deals, TV deals, digital downloads, digital rentals. Studios don’t always assume they’ll make every penny of their advertising back in theatrical run alone. Not a lot of films do, even hits. These guessed “break even” targets annoy me. Strange they always seem to be floated out for Sony too. But I didn’t hear a breakeven point for any of the other big films this year. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 minute ago, tawasal said: But we are talking true dollars here regardless of admissions. And you can't really compare a midweek opener to a prober weekend opener. And it's for him compared to his previous movies a smash hit opening weekend. And I am only saying this in the scale of 30m to 40m. That Django had 3 days of $33m before a $30m w/e makes the $30m more impressive - not less. It's opening over Basterds is 41-38. A 7.8% jump after a decade. So no compared to the previous openings it's not a "smash". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawrenceBrolivier Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Krissykins said: Hmm, you do know the film doesn’t just cease to make money when it stops playing it cinemas? I don't think there's any call for that... And it's not some sort of anti-Sony conspiracy I'm running either.... I'm criticizing lazy writing at a large outlet... I don't think in 2019 a $40mil opening is enough to be considered a "smash" hit, and if you have to move goalposts to compare it against other openings nobody else would think to call "smash" either... it comes off as empty hype for no good reason. You can applaud the success of this film without calling it a "Smash"... or adjusting for inflation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 When a 500m+ film makes you wish it wasnt out because the meltdowns are bad. Youd think it was TLJ all over again. Those of us that called a smaller than the rest gross (big shout out to Baumer) well in advance could have been just as wrong. It will be much closer to Baumers 400m than to the 700m mark thats for sure. Ultimately, even before previews knowing the high opening the film could have, repeateability has always been a component and reviews only killed hope that it would be different enough to stop that as an issue. Ultimately, the only ones really griping (beyond the anti-Disney block) are those that couldnt reassess the reality once reviews and other issues popped up. And that whole #1 till It2 crap was a load of malarky a year ago, let alone a month ago - straight up ignoring what happens to box office today when outside of dead seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said: I don't think there's any call for that... And it's not some sort of anti-Sony conspiracy I'm running either.... I'm criticizing lazy writing at a large outlet... I don't think in 2019 a $40mil opening is enough to be considered a "smash" hit, and if you have to move goalposts to compare it against other openings nobody else would think to call "smash" either... it comes off as empty hype for no good reason. You can applaud the success of this film without calling it a "Smash"... or adjusting for inflation. You said “it will lose money if it doesn’t approach $400m worldwide.” Which simply isn’t true. I quoted you in the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: What people changed their predictions to mere days before opening has never been what I'm talking about. I'm talking about slogging through endless ridiculous predictions for the majority of 2018 and 2019. Anyone can readjust days to release after reviews and tracking. Not to mention, most still seemed to be on board the 600+ train heading into opening. Your analysis are always based on people’s prediction a year before the release without anything concrete? People are just excited for the potential of a remake of one of the biggest movies of all time, then everything back to normal and we realize that this doesn’t equal a billion dollars domestically. The first tracking was $ 150M, the final tracking was $ 180M, our fellas from the tracking thread always say it seems like an over/under $ 200M, if you see the average prediction from members here you get around $ 550M DOM and $ 1.5B WW. And finally, the movie debut with $ 192M, will finish with around $ 550M DOM and $ 1.5-1.6B WW. There’s no revisionism here, the movie is doing exactly what it’s predicted to be, no more, no less (generally speaking). If you keep throwing “predictions” from a year ago to sustain your point that the movie is a disappointment it’s your problem, your revisionism. Edited July 30, 2019 by ThomasNicole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, narniadis said: It will be much closer to Baumers 400m than to the 700m mark thats for sure. Wouldn't it be equally between the two camps considering it will finish in the $550 million range? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Krissykins said: Not very good. I’m sure it’ll stabilise with no direct family competition. Hmm, you do know the film doesn’t just cease to make money when it stops playing it cinemas? Films can make $100’s of millions worldwide from ancillary market. Blu Ray, DVD, 4K, VOD, Streaming deals, TV deals, digital downloads, digital rentals. Studios don’t always assume they’ll make every penny of their advertising back in theatrical run alone. Not a lot of films do, even hits. These guessed “break even” targets annoy me. Strange they always seem to be floated out for Sony too. But I didn’t hear a breakeven point for any of the other big films this year. Interesting. The break even target article by Deadline takes ancillaries into account. They weren't talking about theatrical break even. These articles at Deadline have been written about WB, Disney, Universal, Paramount etc. King Arthur, Justice League, The Mummy, Tomorrowland, The A Wrinkle In Timer, Ghost In The Shell, Skyscraper etc. This year they discussed X-Men and I think Godzilla 2, Pokeman & Shazam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 41 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said: But it made just over half of 70m, and likely won't make $150 either. Yes that is exactly what matter, not it's ranking (I do not believe you do not understand and not agree with it, I am sure you do) 41 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said: in reference to a movie that barely made $40 mil and opened in 2nd place.... And if it would have made 74M and second place, would have had an issue with the writer calling it a smash ? 41 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said: But it's still a success so far. It did the minimum for the success bar to me, but so far is important here, need legs and intl. Smash would have been something 50M or an cinemascore/hold pattern making it look like it will be probably leggy. 41 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said: If this were any other R-rated feature that cost $90 mil and ended with $120mil DOM, would you describe that to people here as "a smash hit" by normal standards? Well depends of it's WW, I would not call a movie a smash because of one weekend in one market like that writer no obviously (I am not trying to get clicks either). Django was a smash hit, not sure if this one at $120M would be (seem quite the Americana and I do not know how moneytizable movie are in 2019 to judge much and because the bonus structure is so important one movie like this cost and that we have absolutely no idea about them, we have little idea on it's cost, an Inglorious Bastard BO on a small 90M movie would be a huge smash, if it's actual cost raise above 150M not anymore). Edited July 30, 2019 by Barnack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawrenceBrolivier Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: The break even target article by Deadline takes ancillaries into account. They weren't talking about theatrical break even. And on top of that... I used the word "likely" because I was accounting for the possibility those reports weren't 100% accurate, although Tom Rothman is the one refuting them and it's not like he's a very trustworthy guy either.... Edited July 30, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: That Django had 3 days of $33m before a $30m w/e makes the $30m more impressive - not less. It's opening over Basterds is 41-38. A 7.8% jump after a decade. So no compared to the previous openings it's not a "smash". Who said what Django did was not impressive? And by the way you still can't compare these two movies opening midweek and weekend, no matter how hard you try. Django was impressive in it's own way. And how can you realistic expect anymore than that jump for a Tarantino movie? Were you expecting it to do 50m, 60m or 70m? And that jump is a lot more impressive than what most other directors achieve these days. He is in low scale box office compared to big names like Cameron and Nolan, and this what his best movies box office wise can achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Was anyone else getting a 504 error over the last hour, or was it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the Minion Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, baumer said: but that's not fair. You shouldn't go by tracking or what the experts say two weeks before film opens. People that make predictions a year out should be called upon even more vociferously than those who make predictions two weeks out because when you make a prediction without anything to go on that's what you truly feel. Then you get stats and predictions and experts and that is not a true indication of what your true feelings are. I'm sorry, how is having other data no longer mean "true feelings"? Sure with tracking and presales you could do more of an educated guess, but your own interpretation on new information is still how you truly feel about something. We are human, so we can look at data and information we are given, and have different conclusions to something. Besides, are we not allowed to change our thoughts or opinions on something? And quite honestly, I usually consider year-ago predictions to be more on the optimistic side in the first place, and not fully indicative on what a forum thinks about something before release. If you think that people's predictions from 2017 or 2018 is what we should follow and listen to all the time, then fine by me. But that's just how we differ Edited July 30, 2019 by CoolEric258 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
