Hobbs & Shaw Weekend Thread: 60.8M OW (6th-best August debut), 180.8M WW | TLK 38.2, OUATIH 20, FFH 7.7, TS4 7.1, Farewell 2.4

[Jay Beezy]

7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

 

That, plus in addition:

if you read a lot of his articles, he mentions quite often being a Nolan and a DC fan, prefers Avatar / Cameron way over MCU... is one of those who rather often says certain movies do not deserve.... and so on.

 

He campaigns for more female lead movies, female directors and so on. Human rights,... Lots of in my POV very positive goals I share too.

He retweets a lot of interesting to me tweets that I guess some of the US members might consider either leftish (if that is considered good or bad ... POV) or cultural 'better' than event movies, quality.....

= I think he sees himself as open minded, pro... above the average persons/people, someone to applaud to for his support...., to say it over the top: an aware and open human being, engaged to better the world and such.

The reason I mention comes later (see not open minded).

 

Funny is, how he reasons, when he gets into rants about why audience does not click with e.g. the new version of Tomb Raider,... something he wants to see ending successfully.

 

Like the GA has to click as finally a female lead, and how he gets ~ affronted if they do not do so.

Ignoring completely why his chosen titles are not good movies to further the female lead, in this case, action movies 'idea'.

E.g. in the new Tomb Raider movie the lead behaves like an immature brat, gets into trouble 90% based on behaving like a foot to ground tapping 9y old.

On one hand he writes about wanting strong females, but if its about per movie reactions, he misses the character again following too often seen paths, like not being mature (either in age, behaving, or e.g. having lived in reclusion or...), special lineage or why-ever else they too often do not use people arising out of the pool of the average adult (non virgin, non priest/goddess on a platform, non why-ever an old enough person is still not mature) women.

 

Forbes stands for a certain level in reputation, his rants, comments,.. not only about MCU movies, but also writing for those kind of movies (see Tomb Raider example, or Alita,....) include the same swipes, twisted reasoning, wordings,... a lot of the more fanatic DC, Cameron,... members here use.

Exception:

if a movie is deemed cultural important, supports minorities,.. and such (but even then he has sometimes a few rather strange wordings in his 'articles')

= that is not the style matching what 'Forbes' implies

 

And as such he shows something else I see in a lot of people who think they are above other in especial cultural sense:

if they show such kind of behaviour or...:

they are at least as closed minded as the people they are writing against. namely if its about people thinking / reacting not like 'planed', see what LawrenceBrolivier wrote (btw, agreeing fully to that).

 

= I think as it got so obvious the last 2 years = that's the main reason people react now way stronger than in the past.

 

The only reason I still follow him at Twitter are his retweets (I should look for someone else who does similar themes and sources), beside often enough sharing which movie I prefer over the other (but definitive not in Tomb Raiders case, a example I love to pick as it has nothing to do with MCU/DC, Nolan nor Cameron) and more.

 

 

This 100%. He wants feminism and diversity even when it's at the expense of good storytelling.

 

Martin Freeman said it best when it comes to these sorts of things: "In the end, it *has* to be a good film. Because if it's an important thing and it's not a good film, then who cares?"

[Heroicpiglet]

13 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

The digital release sliced off it's legs.  No matter, it's passed $857m and I'm petty so Mendelson being wrong again is what really matters.

 

But a $857 million finish is out of the question - Scott Mendelson

 

Scott Medelson's biggest mistake is daring to doubt the magic 857 number

[charlie Jatinder]

12 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I reckon $90mn is worldwide gross, they mistyped.

That would be $41mn Friday, which is still stronger than what $25mn till Thursday suggest. Even 41mn Friday would suggest $170mn weekend though, compared to $220mn in like to like markets of Fate of the Furious, which again seems not possible as its much lower in many countries and barely matching in few.

 

That said Universal reporting is moronic. They fudge India numbers, don't know about other markets which aren't tracked by comScore.

 

$90mn is through Saturday. $28mn Friday. Shall do $37-39mn on Saturday and $30mn Sunday for $120mn weekend.

 

If it follows FF8 legs, will close OS-China at $325-350mn. Expecting $200-250mn in China. That will be $525-600mn, $170-195mn going to Universal Studios.

 

Domestic say it do $175mn, will give $90mn Approx.

 

So $260-285mn theatrical share for Universal Studios globally.

 

With $200mn budget and $400-450mn plus other cost, it will need $340-360mn from Home Video and TV revenue.

 

Furious 7 had $400mn Approx from these ancillaries. So basically it will be barely breaking even. 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

$90mn is through Saturday. $28mn Friday. Shall do $37-39mn on Saturday and $30mn Sunday for $120mn weekend.

 

If it follows FF8 legs, will close OS-China at $325-350mn. Expecting $200-250mn in China. That will be $525-600mn, $170-195mn going to Universal Studios.

 

Domestic say it do $175mn, will give $90mn Approx.

 

So $260-285mn theatrical share for Universal Studios globally.

 

With $200mn budget and $400-450mn plus other cost, it will need $340-360mn from Home Video and TV revenue.

 

Furious 7 had $400mn Approx from these ancillaries. So basically it will be barely breaking even. 

 

 

 

~1.35x prod budget as revenue

 

For comparison, F8:  

DOM 226M gross, ~124 rev

OS-C 617M gross, ~247M rev

C 393M gross (is this actually right? Looks like the ERs were stable so BOM shouldn’t have fucked it up too much), ~83 rev   

 

455M or so total rev on an estimated 250M budget, 1.82x (roughly). Yet Deadline estimated revenue as less than 124M.    

 

A lot of missing data from out perspective, but my best guess would be that it makes money but not that much money.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yet Deadline estimated revenue as less than 124M.    

You mean $124mn profit?

Well there would be another $450mn cost over $250mn, and TV & Home Video might be around $370mn.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

You mean $124mn profit?

Well there would be another $450mn cost over $250mn, and TV & Home Video might be around $370mn.

Oh, yikes, what a typo. Yes, <124M total profit after theatrical rev, HV, TV, other ancillaries, production cost, P&A, other costs, etc.   

 

using those numbers (450, 370) it looks like it wouldn’t have missed their top 10 profit that year by very much.

Edited August 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Legion Again]

46 minutes ago, Heroicpiglet said:

Scott Medelson's biggest mistake is daring to doubt the magic 857 number

Damn you HeroicPiglet, damn you. Now I will be slightly bugged when it hits 858 

 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Oh, yikes, what a typo. Yes, <124M total profit after theatrical rev, HV, TV, other ancillaries, production cost, P&A, other costs, etc.

Wouldn't it also be less than the honourable mentions in the Deadline profits ranking? Therefore meaning that the movie made less than 50 mil in profits?

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Wouldn't it also be less than the honourable mentions in the Deadline profits ranking? Therefore meaning that the movie made less than 50 mil in profits?

The Honorable Mentions that year weren’t simply 11th-15th place, but the top 5 movies outside the top 10 with production budgets of 40M or less.   

 

https://deadline.com/2018/03/movie-profit-2017-baby-driver-wonder-split-annabelle-creation-girls-trip-1202354131/

 

Quote

readers often ask about certain wildly profitable films that didn’t crack our top list. So we’ve once again had five overachievers broken down by the experts; pics with production budgets under $40M.

I think it’s a pretty safe bet that it made more profit than 50M, even if a lot of the gross was from OS/C.

[Rebeccas]

15 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

That's exactly right...Shazam had a winter/holiday setting, and you almost thought they planned Shazam for Aquaman's slot...and then Aquaman wanted it, so they took the next best one...a winter open at any time might have worked a little better, and Alita's spot, in hindsight, was probably the best b/c Shazam could have led off the supers year in Feb, and not been overlooked...and Aquaman could have even led into it with some marketing...

I kind of don't think it was going to do that well regardless of release date? It honestly never looked like a film that was going to appeal to 4 quadrants with its concept and the lack of a female lead probably hurt it a bit as well. Even with male led superhero films, there's usually a pretty famous actress in the love interest/female lead role, which adds a lot of appeal to lesser known characters. I remember when the first Iron Man came out, the buzz around it wasn't about a cinematic universe even but the RDJ/Gwyneth chemistry. 

[titanic2187]

42 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

$90mn is through Saturday. $28mn Friday. Shall do $37-39mn on Saturday and $30mn Sunday for $120mn weekend.

 

If it follows FF8 legs, will close OS-China at $325-350mn. Expecting $200-250mn in China. That will be $525-600mn, $170-195mn going to Universal Studios.

 

Domestic say it do $175mn, will give $90mn Approx.

 

So $260-285mn theatrical share for Universal Studios globally.

 

With $200mn budget and $400-450mn plus other cost, it will need $340-360mn from Home Video and TV revenue.

 

Furious 7 had $400mn Approx from these ancillaries. So basically it will be barely breaking even. 

 

 

 

How the hell a movie did 1.5b barely break even with 190m production cost, are you trying to imply the avengers , which cost 220m of production budget suffered the same?

 

If 1.5b is not enough to make money, I don't get how MI will still be getting MI7 or MI8 after it made only less than 800m with its 178m pro.budget.

 

It is almost impossible they will allow F&F a spin off if even their peak grosser incurred losses. Hollywood and almost every USs conglomerate like to do insane accounting entry with all kind of tactics such as transfer pricing to avoid excessive tax or profit sharing. You may see them making losses at the parental company level , but all the profit were just sitting at their subsidiaries. Taking Universal as example, there are more than 200 interconnected subsidiary for Universal to park their revenue. 

 

How Hollywood Accounting Can Make a $450 Million Movie 'Unprofitable'

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/

[La Binoche]

TLK continues to underperform while its soundtrack completely bombed. $25M wasted on Beyonce. 

[Spidey Freak]

56 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

This 100%. He wants feminism and diversity even when it's at the expense of good storytelling.

This statement still a thing?

 

Repeat with me: Feminism and diversity have jackshit to do with bad storytelling. 

 

Its impact on good storytelling is also only to the extent that a seldom explored POV is highlighted, but then too the hard work needs to be put in to ensure your strong women and minority characters aren't just tokens but well-rounded, complex characters. But by themselves feminism and diversity haven't made a story bad lol.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

How the hell a movie did 1.5b barely break even with 190m production cost

I am talking abt Hobbs and Shaw barely break even.

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Furious 7 had $400mn Approx from these ancillaries. So basically it will be barely breaking even. 

My mistake perhaps, but this sentence got me confused  

[Alex SciChannel]

I'm probably gonna feel like a real a*hole saying this but I'm foaming at the mouth thinking of what could possibly be the Sat drop/numbers for H&S. Did it have a MI fallout type 27%?true Friday increase or did it come at a more conservative increase from true friday +20% +22.5%?

Edited August 4, 2019 by Alex SciChannel

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

How the hell a movie did 1.5b barely break even with 190m production cost, are you trying to imply the avengers , which cost 220m of production budget suffered the same?

Avengers:  

623 DOM, ~343 rev

809 OS-C, ~324 rev

86 C, ~20 rev

 

Total theatrical rev ~ 687M

 

F7:  

353 DOM, ~194 rev

772 OS-C, ~309 rev

391 C, ~90 rev  

 

total theatrical rev ~593, so just having the money from other places lowers by $100M  

 

furious also has a lot of backend deals considering the long-running nature and the star studded cast (Avengers cast was much cheaper for TA than Endgame). That said, Deadline still estimated 350M+ profit for F7. Jat was mentioning ~400M in ancillary revenue for F7 mean that H&S might barely break even if it come soon in the low end of what looks right atm.

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

-snip-

 The accounting/cost I am putting are basic accounting. Studio level accounting will have it in loss for sure.

Edited August 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Avengers:  

623 DOM, ~343 rev

809 OS-C, ~324 rev

86 C, ~20 rev

 

Total theatrical rev ~ 687M

 

F7:  

353 DOM, ~194 rev

772 OS-C, ~309 rev

391 C, ~90 rev  

 

total theatrical rev ~593, so just having the money from other places lowers by $100M  

 

furious also has a lot of backend deals considering the long-running nature and the star studded cast (Avengers cast was much cheaper for TA than Endgame). That said, Deadline still estimated 350M+ profit for F7.

Looking at Ultron, TA profit must have been mid 500s or so.    

 

Can’t wait for the 2019 profit showdown, Disney/MCU/Endgame in particular are going to absolutely slay.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

$90mn is through Saturday. $28mn Friday. Shall do $37-39mn on Saturday and $30mn Sunday for $120mn weekend.

 

If it follows FF8 legs, will close OS-China at $325-350mn. Expecting $200-250mn in China. That will be $525-600mn, $170-195mn going to Universal Studios.

 

Domestic say it do $175mn, will give $90mn Approx.

 

So $260-285mn theatrical share for Universal Studios globally.

 

With $200mn budget and $400-450mn plus other cost, it will need $340-360mn from Home Video and TV revenue.

 

Furious 7 had $400mn Approx from these ancillaries. So basically it will be barely breaking even. 

 

 

 

F8 didn't have particularly good legs did it? At least Dom was pretty bad 2.29x and guessing OS was lower than expected too.

 

Feel Dom for H&S will do around 2.8x (say 175 after 62 ow) and OS could show tantamount growth in legs. The calendar is different from F8 and F7. Not much to come in August in form of big competition. 650 odd OS seems likely imo and hoping for 700.

 

175 dom and 650 OS would be a 21-79 split compared to 18-82 of F8, so vety much doable.

(175 dom and 700 OS would be a 20-80 split)

 

Edited August 4, 2019 by a2k