The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Good point about Swift but my hidden assumption is simply that there's inherently more interest in sequels if you "strike while the iron is hot" and release a film within 2 or possibly 3 years. Time is related to demand as inertia slips away. 

 

 

 

For example, after a mediocre sequel, I suspect that the third Rock-Jumanji movie is going to suffer significantly if it comes out in 2025 instead of 2022 (which is why it probably never gets made unless that other Kasdan-Rock film is a huge hit). On the other hand, something like Creed 3 shows the folly of relying on such arguments too much. 

 

 

 

Excellent point and that is now difficult to achieve thanks to overproducing. If you need X number of new character movies and sequels to earlier movies out, than your movie is gonna wait 4-5 years for its turn. And by then...lets just say only Cameron is Cameron.

 

I have recently watched a video explaining why there are no more event movies or they are super rare and it blamed over-production. Events were special but when you have 4-5 movies a month trying to be an event (moatly mistaking massive budget for event creation), nothing will be an event and audience will have to skip something. And the more stuff you release the more they have to skip. Rn, TET is the event of the month drowning everything save FNAF which is a different target audience. Whoever scheduled TM ticket sales in TET release week is probably being escorted out of Disney premises as we speak. This wa snot a rookie mistake cause TET has been making headlines for weeks now. 

 

[Willowra]

11 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I have to agree. I can't help but think that the likes of Marvels, Echo, Agatha and Ironheart are probably going to suffer a slight DCEU effect, since they now represent a vision that Marvel is no longer pursuing if the recent Daredevil article is to be believed. Echo being dumped all at once is telling. I'm somewhat expecting Agatha and Ironheart to get similar treatments. I'm also wondering if any movies that didn't begin filming prior to May are going to get any major reworks. Daredevil is getting rebooted despite filming a decent amount, so anything is possible now I suppose.

How can you say for sure that Captain Marvel doesn't represent a vision of the future? The Marvels production company name is "Warbird," and do you know who had the biggest role in Kang Dynasty comics? The answer is Warbird (Carol Danvers). I think Brie already has a contract with Marvel Studios for Avengers as a lead or one of the lead characters. She will demand heavy compensation and bleed them a lot if they try to change that lol

Edited October 12, 2023 by Willowra

[PlatnumRoyce]

15 minutes ago, Willowra said:

How can you say for sure that Captain Marvel doesn't represent a vision of the future? The Marvels production company name is "Warbird," and do you know who had the biggest role in Kang Dynasty comics? The answer is Warbird (Carol Danvers). I think Brie already has a contract with Marvel Studios for Avengers as a lead or one of the lead characters. She will demand heavy compensation and bleed them a lot if they try to change that lol

I think you're reading into something that doesn't exist. The company's name is "Warbird II" after Captain Marvel I was named "Warbird I" (with some extra corporate gunk at the end). By all accounts, when that company would hve been named, Marvel's post-Endgame vague idea was for a "cosmic marvel" focus not multiversal or Kang stuff. It's named Warbird because it's a Captain Marvel name that you nonetheless wouldn't find by searching directly for "Captain Marvel"

Edited October 12, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Zakiyyah6]

Marvel changes things on a dime, if they want the Avengers movie to not star Carol then it won't star Carol. She's obviously going to be in the film and have a prominent role but centering an Avengers movie around Carol is almost as foolish as centering a Justice League movie around Cyborg. Her character just isn't that popular.

[Bob Train]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Excellent point and that is now difficult to achieve thanks to overproducing. If you need X number of new character movies and sequels to earlier movies out, than your movie is gonna wait 4-5 years for its turn. And by then...lets just say only Cameron is Cameron.

 

I have recently watched a video explaining why there are no more event movies or they are super rare and it blamed over-production. Events were special but when you have 4-5 movies a month trying to be an event (moatly mistaking massive budget for event creation), nothing will be an event and audience will have to skip something. And the more stuff you release the more they have to skip. Rn, TET is the event of the month drowning everything save FNAF which is a different target audience. Whoever scheduled TM ticket sales in TET release week is probably being escorted out of Disney premises as we speak. This wa snot a rookie mistake cause TET has been making headlines for weeks now. 

 

The funny thing is they made the same mistake with Gotg3, by releasing Guardians tickets during the peak of Mario-mania. Guardians 3 was able to recover, but Marvels early sales are...so low...

[Zakiyyah6]

The idea that Marvel released the tickets at the wrong time is pure cope. So throughout 10 years they never released the tickets at the wrong time but they happen to two times in one year? Please be serious. 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

The funny thing is they made the same mistake with Gotg3, by releasing Guardians tickets during the peak of Mario-mania. Guardians 3 was able to recover, but Marvels early sales are...so low...

 

It could be the case of marketing lack of flexibility, that they have mandated dates and cannot change them even if they should due to another movie siphoning all the attention. 

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The idea that Marvel released the tickets at the wrong time is pure cope. So throughout 10 years they never released the tickets at the wrong time but they happen to two times in one year? Please be serious. 

 

If your demand is lower than demand for another movie than some flexibility is in order no matter what happened in the past 10 years. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying that ticket sales would have broken records in other times. In fact, I said in several posts that TM ran away from Barbie only to fall into TET trap. From frying pan into the fire. When interest isn't there, release date doesn't matter. Audience will find another movie to rally behind or simply stay home if there's nothing that interests them. That said, tickets going on sale the week of TET release is stupid. They should have known by then that TM wasn't strong enough to change the narrative. 

[toutvabien]

As chaotic as The Marvels WW < Captain Marvel DOM sounds, I don't see it happening.

[Willowra]

11 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I think you're reading into something that doesn't exist. The company's name is "Warbird II" after Captain Marvel I was named "Warbird I" (with some extra corporate gunk at the end). By all accounts, when that company would hve been named, Marvel's post-Endgame vague idea was for a "cosmic marvel" focus not multiversal or Kang stuff. It's named Warbird because it's a Captain Marvel name that you nonetheless wouldn't find by searching directly for "Captain Marvel"

They plan their next storyline 5-10 years in advance. And also as per THR Brie Larson made 7 movies contract with Marvel Studios & we don't know whats written in her contract.

[JustLurking]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

 (I also couldn't talk kids into seeing AMWQ or Shazam 2 fwiw)

the kids are wise, I sure wish I hadn't

[Willowra]

19 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Marvel changes things on a dime, if they want the Avengers movie to not star Carol then it won't star Carol. She's obviously going to be in the film and have a prominent role but centering an Avengers movie around Carol is almost as foolish as centering a Justice League movie around Cyborg. Her character just isn't that popular.

This should be the only wish of MCU fanboys that Brie Larson doesn't get 1st or 2nd billing in the next Avengers movies; their interest in the next Avengers movies will depend on this lol

Edited October 12, 2023 by Willowra

[Zakiyyah6]

46 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

If your demand is lower than demand for another movie than some flexibility is in order no matter what happened in the past 10 years. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying that ticket sales would have broken records in other times. In fact, I said in several posts that TM ran away from Barbie only to fall into TET trap. From frying pan into the fire. When interest isn't there, release date doesn't matter. Audience will find another movie to rally behind or simply stay home if there's nothing that interests them. That said, tickets going on sale the week of TET release is stupid. They should have known by then that TM wasn't strong enough to change the narrative. 

The MCU really has fallen hard if needs to stay away from other remotely big films. That's my big take away from your theory. 

[Eric S'ennui]

55 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

The funny thing is they made the same mistake with Gotg3, by releasing Guardians tickets during the peak of Mario-mania. Guardians 3 was able to recover, but Marvels early sales are...so low...

Does the exact day tickets go on sale really matter? Like is anybody who is excited for The Marvels suddenly going to lose interest and not see it because tickets launched on a Monday instead of a Wednesday? I get the idea that some movies may not get sold right away due to competition from another movie, but like those people will still purchase tickets.

[ZeroHour]

4 hours ago, toutvabien said:

Interesting graphic from the THR Daredevil/Marvel TV article on the performance of the shows, including Ms. Marvel. Feels relevant in the thread.

If we're going to spend so much time talking about this chart, the length in minutes of each of these shows is pretty important context. @Porthos has some pretty great breakdowns of the minutes watched in the Streaming Thread including the actual length in minutes of each show (minus Ms. Marvel and What If? since they did not rank very often on the Nielsen chart). Using the length to create an estimate of number of households that watched each show from this Hollywood Reporter data, you get this ranking:

 

1) Loki (season 1) (290 minutes) - 17.9 million households

2) She-Hulk (260 minutes) - 15.4 million households

3) Wandavision (341 minutes) - 14.1 million households

4) Falcon & the Winter Soldier (310 minutes) - 13.5 million households

5) Moon Knight (287 minutes) - 12.9 million households

6) Hawkeye (282 minutes) - 12.4 million households

7) Secret Invasion (261 minutes) - 10.0 million households

8 ) What If? (314 minutes) - 6.4 million households

9) Ms. Marvel (283 minutes) - 6.4 million households

 

As you can see, that changes things up quite a bit (sorry She-Hulk haters, she's Marvel's second biggest show!) and the decline over time that the Hollywood Reporter implies looks a lot less true. But some things stay consistent. Secret Invasion represents a big drop off from previous shows and Ms. Marvel and What If appear to be pretty niche compared to the rest of the Marvel TV lineup.

 

Some caveats. This assumes everyone watched each show all the way through but the reality is that some percentage stopped at some point. It also assumes no one watched a show multiple times when there is likely also a percentage of repeat viewers. I also pulled the length for What If and Ms. Marvel directly from Disney+ since Porthos didn't have those but that will include the notoriously long credits for all of these shows, so both of those are likely being undercounted to a degree.

[Wandavisionlover0924]

12 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

If we're going to spend so much time talking about this chart, the length in minutes of each of these shows is pretty important context. @Porthos has some pretty great breakdowns of the minutes watched in the Streaming Thread including the actual length in minutes of each show (minus Ms. Marvel and What If? since they did not rank very often on the Nielsen chart). Using the length to create an estimate of number of households that watched each show from this Hollywood Reporter data, you get this ranking:

 

1) Loki (season 1) (290 minutes) - 17.9 million households

2) She-Hulk (260 minutes) - 15.4 million households

3) Wandavision (341 minutes) - 14.1 million households

4) Falcon & the Winter Soldier (310 minutes) - 13.5 million households

5) Moon Knight (287 minutes) - 12.9 million households

6) Hawkeye (282 minutes) - 12.4 million households

7) Secret Invasion (261 minutes) - 10.0 million households

8 ) What If? (314 minutes) - 6.4 million households

9) Ms. Marvel (283 minutes) - 6.4 million households

 

As you can see, that changes things up quite a bit (sorry She-Hulk haters, she's Marvel's second biggest show!) and the decline over time that the Hollywood Reporter implies looks a lot less true. But some things stay consistent. Secret Invasion represents a big drop off from previous shows and Ms. Marvel and What If appear to be pretty niche compared to the rest of the Marvel TV lineup.

 

Some caveats. This assumes everyone watched each show all the way through but the reality is that some percentage stopped at some point. It also assumes no one watched a show multiple times when there is likely also a percentage of repeat viewers. I also pulled the length for What If and Ms. Marvel directly from Disney+ since Porthos didn't have those but that will include the notoriously long credits for all of these shows, so both of those are likely being undercounted to a degree.

I would add that Disney+ iirc has much less subscribers overall  when Wandavision started than the others and the success with the show led to an increase in subscription

[John Marston]

People on Reddit are saying people don’t understand this is a sequel to Captain Marvel because of the title 

 

ok

[Willowra]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

People on Reddit are saying people don’t understand this is a sequel to Captain Marvel because of the title 

 

ok

Few definitely, but changing the title gave people the impression that she is an irrelevant character, and Marvel has lost faith in this character, and that's what hurt it the most.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Willowra

[PlatnumRoyce]

Marvel clearly planned/plans to use Captain Marvel as a major character in the next big crossover. However, this is a point about the single use tax entity's name to predict plot points of future Avengers films not about the scale of Captain Marvel's role going forward. It's just not an easter egg for Avengers 5/6.

 

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

They plan their next storyline 5-10 years in advance.

The problem with this argument (ignoring constant evidence it's an exaggerated point) is that 5 years means Captain Marvel 1 so we're not even going to get Avengers 5 within that time frame. Warbird Productions was created in late 2015. In 2019/2020 Spider-Man 3 was still planned to be a Kraven movie, and in 2017 DS2 was clearly signposted as a "Baron Mordo wants to get rid of magic" storyline. There's absolutely no reason to assume that Kang was planned as the next "big bad" in 2015. If he was, that clearly would have been used in marketing phase IV and we could have gotten some early easter eggs. 

 

 

If Warbird productions was created in 2019/2020, I could at least see the argument they're making an easter egg for a comic book storyline involving CM as "Warbird" but that's just not the case. 

 

 

Similarly, look at how Disney talked up Gunn having control of Cosmic marvel only to fire him less than a year later and never really hyping "cosmic marvel" as the big post Endgame concept after that. There's to my mind no evidence they were looking to make a series of multiverse movies in say 2017.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Wandavisionlover0924]

Even if the movie opened at the wrong time it's crazy that a concert movie, regardless of whether who it's about is beating a marvel movie.