Jim Shorts Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Without the IMAX loss, I would have expected....Fri: 19M (+138%)IMAX share: ~2MWith the IMAX loss, that 2M will become 1M if all the people see it in regular theaters.So new predict: 18M (+125%)Didn't IMAX only account for 6.7% of OW? 10.2M of 152.5M? No idea why IMAX would gross almost 2M when it should be closer to 1M. Also, IMAX is not 2x regular ticket prices. Most theaters it's a $3-4 surcharge, not double the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 (edited) It is double John CarterJohn Carter was non-sequel, and very adult driven. Clash pulled in 1.6m midnights after already pulling in 2.65m from 10pm shows (4.25m total). This midnight figure is mediocre at best. It represents a massive drop-off from Clash, and its destined to have a sequel like midnight to opening day ratio, that effectively terminates any chance of the film making more than 35m. I personally think sub 31m is in play. Edited March 30, 2012 by B J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 This reminds me of Fake right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wrath should claim 13M on Friday and stay flat on Saturday which would led toward a 33M weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 This reminds me of Fake right now. http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyFpOp8Ft0QFake is a beanpole guy with a long hair????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wrath should claim 13M on Friday and stay flat on Saturday which would led toward a 33M weekendHalf of Clash after adjusting, sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Didn't IMAX only account for 6.7% of OW? 10.2M of 152.5M? No idea why IMAX would gross almost 2M when it should be closer to 1M. Also, IMAX is not 2x regular ticket prices. Most theaters it's a $3-4 surcharge, not double the price.IMAX drops much better than other theaters. It would have seen a 30-35% drop for around $7M weekend.And I am taking 2x as a rough estimate. In 2011, avg. IMAX price was $15-16, while average 2D ticket price was $7.5M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wrath should claim 13M on Friday and stay flat on Saturday which would led toward a 33M weekendSo 13M Friday, 13M Saturday and 7M Sunday? Something doesn't seem right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 So 13M Friday, 13M Saturday and 7M Sunday? Something doesn't seem right here.Indeed where is the implosive Saturday drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The drop of this is more shocking than Ghost Rider > Ghost Rider 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I wonder if the last day of IMAX had anything to do with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Indeed where is the implosive Saturday drop.I think GR2 didn't drop. Why would this drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Shorts Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 IMAX drops much better than other theaters. It would have seen a 30-35% drop for around $7M weekend.And I am taking 2x as a rough estimate. In 2011, avg. IMAX price was $15-16, while average 2D ticket price was $7.5M.$7.5M?? No wonder everyone wants to watch movies in IMAX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Needle Nose Ned Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 So what's the percentage chance THG beats Avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Nice drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I wonder if the last day of IMAX had anything to do with this...Extremely doubtful. Most people have no idea when a film loses IMAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I think GR2 didn't drop. Why would this drop? GR increased 12.5%, GR2 increased 25%. Thats double the increase Using that model for Clash/Wrath: Clash decreased 18%, Wrath will decrease 9%. thats 1 half the the drop either way I still expect a drop, and if the film fallows immortals (non sequel) midnights to opening day ratio it will be hard pressed to have an opening day over 11m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 $8,173,400 up 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Some other Thursday numbers.1 The Hunger Games $8,173,400 2% 4,137 -- $1,976 $189,932,838 1 Lionsgate2 21 Jump Street $1,926,079 8% 3,121 0 $617 $78,052,624 2 Sony / Columbia3 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $1,047,945 10% 3,677 -92 $285 $181,547,800 4 Universal4 John Carter $436,651 3% 3,212 -537 $136 $64,204,339 3 Disney5 Act of Valor $215,317 10% 2,219 -546 $97 $66,743,494 5 Relativity Media6 Project X (2012) $191,344 5% 2,065 -857 $93 $52,546,776 4 Warner Bros.7 Safe House $133,025 5% 1,330 -590 $100 $123,101,730 7 Universal8 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $122,172 2% 1,340 -595 $91 $97,645,207 7 Warner Bros. / New Line9 This Means War $103,047 11% 1,188 -472 $87 $52,659,289 6 Fox10 The Vow $101,351 20% 1,258 -917 $81 $123,143,216 7 Sony / Screen Gems11 Silent House (2012) $57,444 7% 1,202 -922 $48 $12,195,877 3 Open Road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The Hunger Games - $8,173,400 (+1,5%)Even bigger, BJ likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
