2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On 12/29/2021 at 8:16 PM, KnucklesXXR said:

The Batman

$146M OW - $370M DOM - $586M OS - $135M China 

 

My prediction from 2.5 months ago for The Batman. No bad IMO.

[wintersoldier2021]

at this same stage of things People said no way home  was going to be delayed as well 

[poweranimals]

On 3/13/2022 at 1:42 PM, Juby said:

 

The third re-shoots are on the way. Zero marketing at this point (with less than 4 months to release date). I think Disney will move it to the previous The Flash release date and BP:WF to 2023.

Re-shoots are normal. There's really not much point in releasing a trailer this early. It's just gonna get lost in the hype for Doctor Strange.

Edited June 17, 2022 by poweranimals

[ViktorLosAngeles]

I have a feeling that BP 2 would probably profit more from being pushed to 2023. Maybe April or July? I have a feeling that everything that ends up being released close to Avatar 2 will suffer. If I'm not mistaken BP2 is set for 11/11/22 release date?

[wintersoldier2021]

2 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

I have a feeling that BP 2 would probably profit more from being pushed to 2023. Maybe April or July? I have a feeling that everything that ends up being released close to Avatar 2 will suffer. If I'm not mistaken BP2 is set for 11/11/22 release date?

 

Yeah the rocks career STILL hasn't recovered from opening 2 jumanji films against 2 star wars films 🙄

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

I have a feeling that BP 2 would probably profit more from being pushed to 2023. Maybe April or July? I have a feeling that everything that ends up being released close to Avatar 2 will suffer. If I'm not mistaken BP2 is set for 11/11/22 release date?

Why would BP2 suffer from opening 5 weeks before Avatar 2? It will have made 95% of its box office by then. 

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, KnucklesXXR said:

Why would BP2 suffer from opening 5 weeks before Avatar 2? It will have made 95% of its box office by then. 

There is no way Black Panther 2 will make the November release date. It is still filming. Even IF they were to finish this month, that gives them 8 months for post-production.  No way that is happening. If anything, The Marvels (finished filming in November) will move to the November, 2022 slot. BP2 will move to February, 2023. I can also see them moving Ant-Man Quantumania to February, 2023 (also finished filming in November-doesn't need over a year for post) and moving BP2 to May, 2023. GOTG3 to July (hasn't finished filming and isn't supposed to until April).

 

If Thor moves (likely won't but who knows), then anything goes. BP2, for all we know, may end up moving to November, 2023. With Boseman's tragic passing and the Letitia Wright injury, not to mention COVID-issues, I'm shocked they delayed it only 2-5 months at a time and not a full year right off the bat. May, 2023 would only be ONE year after the movie's original release date.

[ViktorLosAngeles]

Yeah, I just checked - they started filming some scenes 2 days ago, and it doesn't look like the production will wrap this month. There's no way this is coming this year. It may make the most of it's money in November, but it would still get a bigger boost in December, which won't be the case because Avatar 2 will dominate the market. BP is also weaker overseas, and this time it may experience even bigger drop. If it doesn't get released in China, where the original grossed 105 million (which is 16% of it's overseas gross), and 19.3 million in Russia (2.9%), that's already a 20% decrease.

 

Also, since there's no Boseman nor Jordan, box office would surely be lower, and I don't think they want to take the risk and release it just before Cameron. You have to remember, that transition from November to December is always rocky box-office wise. BP2 is surely one of the films people are overestimating. The first one also succeeded because of it's "one of a kind" nature, which, of course, with the sequel, is no longer the case. It's lead actors contributed significantly.

[Torontofan]

Is thor coming in the suumer?

 

We are like 3-4 months away and there been no trailer. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

Yeah, I just checked - they started filming some scenes 2 days ago, and it doesn't look like the production will wrap this month. There's no way this is coming this year. It may make the most of it's money in November, but it would still get a bigger boost in December, which won't be the case because Avatar 2 will dominate the market. BP is also weaker overseas, and this time it may experience even bigger drop. If it doesn't get released in China, where the original grossed 105 million (which is 16% of it's overseas gross), and 19.3 million in Russia (2.9%), that's already a 20% decrease.

 

Also, since there's no Boseman nor Jordan, box office would surely be lower, and I don't think they want to take the risk and release it just before Cameron. You have to remember, that transition from November to December is always rocky box-office wise. BP2 is surely one of the films people are overestimating. The first one also succeeded because of it's "one of a kind" nature, which, of course, with the sequel, is no longer the case. It's lead actors contributed significantly.

 

The box office will be lower because the first one was a zeitgeist film. Jordan or Boseman had no real effect on it (i.e if those had been 2 other good actors, it would have done the same business.)

It's going to be lower by default but that release date isn't going to be the reason. If it doesn't release in November (which most expect it will move), I don't see the box office being markedly different whether it comes out in February 2023 or whenever. 

[jedijake]

I don't see a lack of Boseman or Jordan being an issue unto itself. Everyone is already preparing for the void left by Boseman's passing. The females from the first one had enough charisma. However, as @KnucklesXXRsaid, the first one was lightning in a bottle. If they can really capture something that pays honor to Boseman, it could again be massive, but won't do $700 million domestic. The real tricky thing is that there will be 100 different versions of what "honor" is for Boseman. Re-casting has been one of the most popular as of late and they're too far along to do that (unless they've someone been doing it secretly). It will be a heavily divided film whatever direction Coogler takes to carry on the story. 

 

The more time they can give it, the better. Maybe re-doing it isn't a financially responsible option, but adding to what they have and releasing it in the 2nd half of 2023 may not be a bad idea.

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

Not exactly great predictions, but pretty interesting that they are willing to predict nearly pre-pandemic numbers for JW3, an increase of at least 50+ million (closer to 65 id say) over jw 2 even if we "correct" for pandemic-era inflation (using some rough estimates on of course)

 

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Juby]

Full article: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/251510830-2022-market-prediction-The-Batmans-big-opening-ushers-in-a-model-change-and-an-increase-in-our-forecast-for-the-year

 

Predicting $339m for The Batman at the moment is ridiculous. The movie will be around $300m this Sunday, and $340m by the end of March. Even funnier thing is that he's predicted only $200m for The Batman before its release (that's why Batman wasn't included in previous 2022 forecasts on the list with +$230m domestic grossers).

 

I don't feel the hype for another Jurassic film, but without Black Adam this summer and after delaying Thor (which I believe is a matter of days) I think +500m isn't impossible after all.

[DAJK]

34 minutes ago, Juby said:

Full article: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/251510830-2022-market-prediction-The-Batmans-big-opening-ushers-in-a-model-change-and-an-increase-in-our-forecast-for-the-year

 

Predicting $339m for The Batman at the moment is ridiculous. The movie will be around $300m this Sunday, and $340m by the end of March. Even funnier thing is that he's predicted only $200m for The Batman before its release (that's why Batman wasn't included in previous 2022 forecasts on the list with +$230m domestic grossers).

 

I don't feel the hype for another Jurassic film, but without Black Adam this summer and after delaying Thor (which I believe is a matter of days) I think +500m isn't impossible after all.

Why would Thor be delayed?

[Cooper Legion]

Some quick hits in release order:

Morbius 150

Sonic 200

Dumbledore 100

DS2 480

JW3 620

Lightyear 300

Thor 520

Spiderverse 300

Black Adam 180

BP2 666M because luciferase

Shazam2 180

Avatar 2 450

[ViktorLosAngeles]

52 minutes ago, Juby said:

Full article: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/251510830-2022-market-prediction-The-Batmans-big-opening-ushers-in-a-model-change-and-an-increase-in-our-forecast-for-the-year

 

Predicting $339m for The Batman at the moment is ridiculous. The movie will be around $300m this Sunday, and $340m by the end of March. Even funnier thing is that he's predicted only $200m for The Batman before its release (that's why Batman wasn't included in previous 2022 forecasts on the list with +$230m domestic grossers).

 

I don't feel the hype for another Jurassic film, but without Black Adam this summer and after delaying Thor (which I believe is a matter of days) I think +500m isn't impossible after all.

 

Thor will probably take BP2 date - 11/11

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, Villain Legion said:

Some quick hits in release order:

Morbius 150

Sonic 200

Dumbledore 100

DS2 480

JW3 620

Lightyear 300

Thor 520

Spiderverse 300

Black Adam 180

BP2 666M because luciferase

Shazam2 180

Avatar 2 450

Morbius 150

Sonic 180

Dumbledore 135

DS2 465

JW3 575

Lightyear 350

Thor 480

Spiderverse 275

Black Adam 200

BP2 600

Shazam2 225

Avatar 2 580

[Samwise the Brave]

Morbius 140

Sonic 190

FB3 130

DS2 500

JW3 550

Lightyear 280

Thor 4 360

Spiderverse 2 250

Black Adam 170

BP2 450

Shazam 2 200

Avatar 2 620

[Juby]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Why would Thor be delayed?

Because there's no trailer (or even one promotional photo) released yet and the third re-shoots are underway. And because Disney won't finish BP2 for this November. They'll move Thor for Nov 4th or nov 11th and start marketing with Strange, mark my words.

 

My current counter-predictions for the-numbers list:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion $340m

The Batman $390m

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $410m

Thor: Love and Thunder $410m

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (probably Feb 2023)

Lightyear $320m

Minions: The Rise of Gru $210m

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $270m

Avatar 2 $500m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st)

Top Gun: Maverick $210m

 

I don't see any other +$200m in 2022, but Morbius, Sonic 2, Black Adam and Shazam! 2 might surprise me.

 

[lorddemaxus]

3 hours ago, Villain Legion said:

Some quick hits in release order:

Morbius 150

Sonic 200

Dumbledore 100

DS2 480

JW3 620

Lightyear 300

Thor 520

Spiderverse 300

Black Adam 180

BP2 666M because luciferase

Shazam2 180

Avatar 2 450

No Top Gun here? That's making more than any of the non-MCU superhero movies on here.