Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[ViewerAnon]

If you might indulge me a moment to pop on my tinfoil hat, part of me wonders if Universal played with the numbers a bit to bring HALLOWEEN KILLS in just a hair under $50M. Doesn’t their deal with theaters allow them to sell sub-$50M OW grossers on VOD platforms after just 17 days?

 

Getting KILLS out there on November 1st has to look mighty tempting to them.

[Eric the Ape]

4 minutes ago, lilmac said:

How did Halloween Kills make more than Bond??  😐

It...didn't?

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

If you might indulge me a moment to pop on my tinfoil hat, part of me wonders if Universal played with the numbers a bit to bring HALLOWEEN KILLS in just a hair under $50M. Doesn’t their deal with theaters allow them to sell sub-$50M OW grossers on VOD platforms after just 17 days?

 

Getting KILLS out there on November 1st has to look mighty tempting to them.

 

 

The rare reverse fudge???

[Val357]

22 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

If you might indulge me a moment to pop on my tinfoil hat, part of me wonders if Universal played with the numbers a bit to bring HALLOWEEN KILLS in just a hair under $50M. Doesn’t their deal with theaters allow them to sell sub-$50M OW grossers on VOD platforms after just 17 days?

 

Getting KILLS out there on November 1st has to look mighty tempting to them.

Wouldn't surprise me. Sundays are rarely OVERestimated. Actual number for Sunday is down considerably from the number we saw yesterday.

[Plain Old Tele]

When you wear a tinfoil hat, all you’re doing is wearing a tinfoil hat. 

[CJohn]

Halloween will probably end at around 95M. A flop. The movie is lucky to be available on Peacock as well.

Edited October 18, 2021 by CJ Chapek

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, CJ Chapek said:

Halloween will probably end at around 95M. A flop. The movie is lucky to be available on Peacock as well.

 

Hoping your post is a lame joke. 

(Just in case you’re claiming to be genuine with that post: $95m would be 4.75x its budget, in one market.)

[Val357]

If the fall from Halloween 2018's domestic total is the same as the fall from the OW, Halloween Kills would end up with roughly $103 million.

 

Unfortunately I don't see this passing $100M. The legs are going to be even worse than the first (unsurprisingly I know).

[Krissykins]

That seems great for a service with 3m paid subs?

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That seems great for a service with 3m paid subs?

So we found the shortfall to 50m here....

[Val357]

I'm morbidly curious about just how steep Halloween Kills can drop haha. I'm going to be comparing it closely to Friday the 13th (2009) this week. Friday the 13th had a similar pattern on OW to Halloween Kills, though all around slightly worse. I guess if there's a big difference it's on Sunday, where F13 dropped worse (-51.1% compared to -46.6% for HK). Not only is the Sunday drop worse but compounding that is F13 had the benefit of a holiday Monday and STILL dropped over 50% on Sunday. Ouch. F13 then proceeded to drop 56.8% on Presidents' Day Monday when holiday Mondays are usually softer than that, whereas I suspect HK's Monday drop yesterday might reflect more or less a typical Monday drop (not as opposed to a holiday Monday drop - that's obvious - but as opposed to a bad drop for a movie like this on a typical Monday).

 

Probably an unfair comparison though, as F13 is the crown jewel of all 2nd weekend drops for a major release.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Val357

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, Val357 said:

I'm morbidly curious about just how steep Halloween Kills can drop haha. I'm going to be comparing it closely to Friday the 13th (2009) this week. Friday the 13th had a similar pattern on OW to Halloween Kills, though all around slightly worse. I guess if there's a big difference it's on Sunday, where F13 dropped worse (-51.1% compared to -46.6% for HK). Not only is the Sunday drop worse but compounding that is F13 had the benefit of a holiday Monday and STILL dropped over 50% on Sunday. Ouch. F13 then proceeded to drop 56.8% on Presidents' Day Monday when holiday Mondays are usually softer than that, whereas I suspect HK's Monday drop yesterday might reflect more or less a typical Monday drop (not as opposed to a holiday Monday drop - that's obvious - but as opposed to a bad drop for a movie like this on a typical Monday).

 

Probably an unfair comparison though, as F13 is the crown jewel of all 2nd weekend drops for a major release.

Friday the 13th had a few major factors adding to its frontloaded-ness though: 

 

1. its Friday was actually Friday the 13th

2. its Saturday was Valentines Day

[ViktorLosAngeles]

Way better hold than I expected... 2.72 million $ Monday (-70.5%)