⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[SpiderByte]

22 minutes ago, Squire said:

That said, from what I can tell, they’ve been hit or miss this summer. For example, I’m pretty sure The Flash and Indy 5 were tracking better than Barbie and Oppenheimer at one point. And, until about 2 weeks prior to Barbeinheimer coming out, the numbers for those two movies weren’t great. 

By their metrics or everyone else's?

[Eric S'ennui]

1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

https://x.com/cryptic4kqual/status/1690716314162057216?s=46&t=avw9CnW4tFdBxUcRf1cmww
 

current (not final) runtime is at 2hrs 45mins, 8 of which is towards credits. this guy has been pretty reliable with trailers and runtimes lately.

I hate that it says x.com so much lmao

[kayumanggi]

...

Edited August 13, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Squire]

24 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

By their metrics or everyone else's?

Their metrics. For the longest time they essentially said that people are aware of Barbie, but not interested. It wasn’t until it was a forgone conclusion Barbie was gonna be huge that they jumped on the bandwagon, even though their tracking numbers still weren’t great, according to their own standards. 

Edited August 13, 2023 by Squire

[SpiderByte]

Could Villeneuve do promo for this by himself as director, even if he's also a writer?

[CoolioD1]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Could Villeneuve do promo for this by himself as director, even if he's also a writer?

Yes.

[SpiderByte]

I guess it's more "would" than "could". Though he hasn't been like on the picket line (at least not in anything I've seen) though hes probably just still working on the actual movie.

[CoolioD1]

Yeah i don't see why not. Nolan and Gerwig promoted their movies with no real pushback, would be no different from that.

[Valonqar]

On 8/12/2023 at 8:55 PM, Squire said:

Finally a good Quorum update for Dune.

 

Interest inexplicably went down after the first trailer, but has now started to trend back up. Hope it continues. 

 

18 hours ago, Squire said:

Best Analysis I’ve seen so far of their reliability.

They supposedly track movies the way studios do. 
 

That said, from what I can tell, they’ve been hit or miss this summer. For example, I’m pretty sure The Flash and Indy 5 were tracking better than Barbie and Oppenheimer at one point. And, until about 2 weeks prior to Barbeinheimer coming out, the numbers for those two movies weren’t great. 

 

Quorum is trash, IMO. It overestimated Haunted Mansion and TLM but underestimated Barbenheimer. So it seems there's Disney bias. 

 

Also, they are underestimating Dune II.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Valonqar

[PlatnumRoyce]

17 hours ago, Squire said:

Their metrics. For the longest time they essentially said that people are aware of Barbie, but not interested. It wasn’t until it was a forgone conclusion Barbie was gonna be huge that they jumped on the bandwagon, even though their tracking numbers still weren’t great, according to their own standards. 

To be fair, when a week or two from release, they also said in interviews that Barbie just completely broke their comps (and they're relying on a dataset that starts in 2021. They said something like "our [interest/awareness divergence] is giving wildly contradictory estimates."  

Now that strong skepticism about unaided awareness really just seems like a blindspot. There was a real discrepancy in interest across age/gender but they massively underestimated success in turning out target demo. 

this is still a good article laying out their though process 2 weeks out - https://thequorum.com/can-barbie-top-the-little-mermaid-inside-the-numbers/

 

Quote

It wasn’t until it was a forgone conclusion Barbie was gonna be huge that they jumped on the bandwagon, even though their tracking numbers still weren’t great, according to their own standards. 

The awareness tracking approaching the upper bound really was dragging their estimates up. They were very very very slow to get on board barbie train but by day 0, they're probably at ~120M OW estimate according to their own standards(???). Stuff like Lightyear are just beyond infinitely worse for their tracking. 

 

[filmlover]

Mentioned in another thread that since National Cinema Day is in less than two weeks we're likely going to receive more release date news from the studios between now and then as they start to lock in their schedules for the rest of the year, strike or no strike. Who knows, if WB is really considering delaying titles they might drop the announcement this week to distract from the seemingly inevitable piece of bad news that awaits them re: Blue Beetle.

[babz06]

5 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

 

Quorum is trash, IMO. It overestimated Haunted Mansion and TLM but underestimated Barbenheimer. So it seems there's Disney bias. 

 

Also, they are underestimating Dune II.

Mte. Quorum is irrelevant. The heavy marketing for this film probably won’t even kick in until October. The cast not being able to promote is unfortunate but I’m sure they did some promo prior to the strikes like a magazine covers and interviews. And stars are allowed to post their photo shoots on social media (that’s where timothee and zendaya, flo etc can come in)  who knows the strike might be over by that point so they may not have to worry about that anyways. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by babz06

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Mte. Quorum is irrelevant. The heavy marketing for this film probably won’t even kick in until October. The cast not being able to promote is unfortunate but I’m sure they did some promo prior to the strikes like a magazine covers and interviews. And stars are allowed to post their photo shoots on social media (that’s where timothee and zendaya, flo etc can come in)  who knows the strike might be over by that point so they may not have to worry about that anyways. 

 

and honestly most people decide whether they'll see a movie based on previews not on what Z and Miss Flo might wear on the red carpet. 

[SpiderByte]

43 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

and honestly most people decide whether they'll see a movie based on previews not on what Z and Miss Flo might wear on the red carpet. 

It's not the red carpet theyd need to worry about, it's the press junkets and promo tours. Interviews, clips, etc, Dune has a lot of star power and they won't be able to take advantage of it while the strike is ongoing.

 

It's why Barbie and Oppenheimer rushed to get junkets shot and press done before the strike.

Edited August 14, 2023 by SpiderByte

[SpiderByte]

7 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

Yeah i don't see why not. Nolan and Gerwig promoted their movies with no real pushback, would be no different from that.

Well a big difference is most of the promo tour was done before the strike, specifically so they didn't just have to rely on the director alone.

[Warmaster506]

Really hope this doesn't move.  Need this hehe

[Squire]

35 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Translation: Dune should move so that The Marvels could get its IMAX screens. 

It was pretty obvious to me that when Marvel moved The Marvels to Nov 10 they were hoping Dune would move. After all, that first weekend in November has traditionally been a date they like. 
 

Considering how barren October was, they easily could have moved the movie to 10/20. 

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

Translation: Dune should move so that The Marvels could get its IMAX screens. 

No, I'm saying these are the reasons they're likely considering whether to delay it. You attempting to make this into fanboy war shit is your own problem.

[WittyUsername]

2 hours ago, Squire said:

It was pretty obvious to me that when Marvel moved The Marvels to Nov 10 they were hoping Dune would move. After all, that first weekend in November has traditionally been a date they like. 
 

Considering how barren October was, they easily could have moved the movie to 10/20. 

October 20th was when it was originally scheduled. They moved it so it could presumably have more time in post. 

[filmlover]

Honestly this could still move up to October 27 to give that month some life since its biggest releases following some delays now are Flower Moon (remains to be seen how big of a theatrical push this is actually getting or if it's being treated as a glorified qualifying run for its streaming debut - it's not featured on Paramount's website, for starters), the Exorcist legacy sequel, and Five Nights at Freddy's (a hybrid release) but it all comes down to whether they do or do not want this open without those buzzy interviews from the popular names in the cast. We'll find out soon enough!