The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, Eric Drake said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	889	13957	6.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 198

 

Comp

0.352x of F9 T-1 (2.5M)

0.813x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (3.33M)

0.298x of Venom 2 T-1 (3.46M)

0.555x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-1 (2.5M)

Ghostbusters comp is bothering me a bit otherwise $3M previews will be a nice start. Considering how strong it is opening in Europe, let's see if this surprise.

 

I will be checking Harkins tonight. @ZackM and @keysersoze123 can you guys run this tonight?

[Dragoncaine]

Looks like The Batman is confirmed for a March 18th release in China. I'm guessing it does $50-90m there.

[charlie Jatinder]

Uncharted Harkins T-1 (basically morning of Previews)

 

California - 375 on 17 shows

Phoenix 4 - 466 on 23 shows

 

Total - 841

 

Comps

60% of The Suicide Squad in California - $2.46M

93% of The Suicide Squad in Phoenix 2 - $3.81M

 

$3M+ looks possible.

[Eric is Quiet]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Do me Eternals

3.303x of Eternals T-15 (31.38M)

 

Huh. Maybe I should do regular comps with this

[BruiseCruise]

Uncharted 4 day > Scream 5 4 day?

[XXR & Friends]

17 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Uncharted 4 day > Scream 5 4 day?

Yes.

[BruiseCruise]

1 minute ago, PenguinXXR said:

Yes.

Do you think Uncharted will do 100m DOM total?

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Dog	Jacksonville	6	15	1,440	41	7	2.85%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,885	25	7	1.33%
		Raleigh	8	16	1,644	34	-1	2.07%
	Dog Total		21	48	4,969	100	13	2.01%
T-1	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	49	8,528	298	38	3.49%
		Phoenix	7	30	4,846	326	54	6.73%
		Raleigh	7	31	3,935	310	64	7.88%
	Uncharted Total		20	110	17,309	934	156	5.40%
T-13	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	424	6	50.42%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	396	0	96.59%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	966	6	68.90%
T-14	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	449	22	38.51%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	214	2	67.30%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	663	24	44.68%
T-15	Batman	Jacksonville	7	125	20,403	688		3.37%
		Phoenix	6	107	17,555	1,138		6.48%
		Raleigh	28	105	11,777	964		8.19%
	Batman Total		41	337	49,735	2,790		5.61%

 

Dog (Thu) comp

Marry Me - .71x (372k)

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - .975x (3.997m)

Dune - .53x (2.7m)

Free Guy - 2.312x (5.09m)

Average - 3.93m

 

Batman T-15 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .18x (8.95m)

Black Widow - 1.559x (20.57m)

 

Eternals T-14 - 2.028x (19.26m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Dog	Jacksonville	6	15	1,440	53	12	3.68%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,885	33	8	1.75%
		Raleigh	8	16	1,644	47	13	2.86%
	Dog Total		21	48	4,969	133	33	2.68%
T-0	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	50	8,638	405	107	4.69%
		Phoenix	7	32	4,924	432	106	8.77%
		Raleigh	7	31	3,935	421	111	10.70%
	Uncharted Total		20	113	17,497	1,258	324	7.19%
T-12	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	430	6	51.13%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	396	0	96.59%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	972	6	69.33%
T-13	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	465	16	39.88%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	214	0	67.30%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	679	16	45.75%
T-14	Batman	Jacksonville	7	125	20,403	721	33	3.53%
		Phoenix	6	107	17,555	1,174	36	6.69%
		Raleigh	28	104	11,626	1,017	54	8.75%
	Batman Total		41	336	49,584	2,912	123	5.87%

 

Dog (Thu) comp

Marry Me - .76x (399k)

Prediction (incl EA) - 550k

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - .993x (4.071m)

Dune - .57x (2.9m)

Free Guy - 2.195x (4.83m)

Jungle Cruise - 1.844x (4.98m)

Ghostbusters - .7x (2.91m)

Average - 3.94m

Prediction - 4m

 

Batman T-14 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .177x (8.84m)

Black Widow - 1.537x (20.28m)

Eternals - 2.116x (20.1m)

[Dragoncaine]

18 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Uncharted 4 day > Scream 5 4 day?

I would hope so given the budget, and I'd guess it outperforms Scream 5.

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Do you think Uncharted will do 100m DOM total?

I’m thinking it could be it’ll be close. I’d go with $90-120M final.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ghostbusters comp is bothering me a bit otherwise $3M previews will be a nice start. Considering how strong it is opening in Europe, let's see if this surprise.

 

I will be checking Harkins tonight. @ZackM and @keysersoze123 can you guys run this tonight?

Running for MTC2 is a pain. I am just tracking Batman once in a while. It just hangs my system as its very resource intensive. Good old days of quick tracking are over from my perspective. I am pleasantly surprised I am even able to track anything as nothing worked for me during NWH. 

 

Regional numbers make me think it will do mid 20s and 30 million over 4 days. Let us hope walk up surprise as this has holland and that should pull in the audience despite bad reviews. 

[CJohn]

Batman will kill Uncharted in week 3 which is a bit too early into its run. 

[el sid]

Uncharted, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 239 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 214 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 67 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 30 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 76 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 256 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 412 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.294.
Up 22% since yesterday. A better jump than I feared.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.5M from previews) had 1.437 sold tickets = 90% = 4.05M for Uncharted,

TSS (4.1M) had 1.656 sold tickets = 67% at the moment = 2.75M (improved a little bit since yesterday)

and Sonic (3.0M) had 1.120 sold tickets = x1.155 = 3.5M.
I ignore the TSS comp because here we have no HBO Max competition and go with 3.75M from previews for Uncharted.
 

Uncharted, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 239 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 228 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 102 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 40 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 55 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 234 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 282 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.180.
Up 20% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): G: A (12.1M true Friday) had 1.124 sold tickets = x1.05 = 12.7M true Friday for Uncharted,
TSS (8.0M) had 1.560 sold tickets = 75.5% = 6.05M,

Jungle Cruise (10.7M) had 817 sold tickets = x1.445 = 15.45M

and Sonic (18.0M) had 2.103 sold tickets = 51.5% = 9.4M.
The TSS comp is too low IMO (no HBO Max, no predecessor with pretty bad reception) and the JC and G: A comps are probably too optimistic with these reviews. OTOH the starpower could help.

Overall it did not implode in my theaters (too) and the jumps both were better than e.g. for TSS. Therefore I lift my „prediction“ to 25-30M 3-day.

Dog had today 95 sold tickets in 6 theaters (102% up, still no showtimes in the AMC Fresh Meadows).
Comps (both counted on Thursday for Friday): The Call of the Wild (24.8M OW) had 216 sold tickets
and Clifford (16.6M OW) had 152 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
With good walk-ups 10M OW (3-day) seems reachable now but I doubt that they will be as good as for the two comparison film so I would go with high single digits (3-day).

The Cursed had today 70 sold tickets for Friday (up 280%) with showtimes in 6 theaters.

Comps (both counted on Thursday for Friday): Malignant (5.4M OW) had 237 sold tickets in 7 theaters, The Night House (2.9M OW) had 90 in 6 theaters and Antlers (4.3M OW) 136.
So all three films improved! Yesterday I would have said 1M OW but now it's 2M from the comps and due to the good jump I think it could open even higher if it's released in enough theaters (couldn't find a number).

[Tinalera]

Uncharted

Toronto Ontario Greater Toronto Area

Friday Feb 18 taken Feb 17

13 Theatres

109 shows

 

Total sold 1669

Total remaining 26165

total seats 27834

Percentage 6.0 

 

 

[DAJK]

So... uh, Dog is at 90% on RT? Guessing it will drop considerably but, why the heck was it marketed so poorly if it's actually a crowd pleaser?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So... uh, Dog is at 90% on RT? Guessing it will drop considerably but, why the heck was it marketed so poorly if it's actually a crowd pleaser?

It's 60 on Metacritic and 6.40 average so those are probably more accurate than the 90% aggregate 

[ZackM]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ghostbusters comp is bothering me a bit otherwise $3M previews will be a nice start. Considering how strong it is opening in Europe, let's see if this surprise.

 

I will be checking Harkins tonight. @ZackM and @keysersoze123 can you guys run this tonight?

I'll see what I can do.

[BruiseCruise]

A movie about a person and their dog rating poorly in america feels impossible

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'm not going to track the early fan shows because the Tuesday IMAX, the Wednesday AMC Dolby is sold about 200/300 sold. the Cinemark Wednesday XD is 75% full

 

So I'll do thursday:

 

CINEMARK: (117)

3 XD (4)

345 (1), 445 (4), 530 (8), 8 (11), 9 (0), 945 (8)

715 XD (81)

 

AMC:

3 DOLBY (66)

7 DOLBY- 30 seats left

4 IMAX (38)

8 IMAX (148)

330 (7), 730 (14), 830 (10)

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	7	8	3	47
Seats Added	0	717	1,377	133	9,735
Seats Sold	3,366	3,078	7,458	6,150	6,173
2/16/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,230	110,506	915,575	12.07%

 

 

ATP

$17.22