The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

Any truth to this tweet from a box office account with 14k followers saying The Batman has exceeded $20m in U.S. presales?

Pretty unlikely, probably 15Mish

2 hours ago, PenguinXXR said:

Charlie would know better but that’s probably fairly close. Most trackers have it about 30-40% of NWH (at the same point in time) and that did over $40M presales in the first 24 hours. So let’s say NWH was $50-60M about 10 days out, some math and extrapolation would say The Batman should be around $20M by now. 

NWH ballpark 65 10 days out, so Batman ~ 20%. The (tues+wed+Th)/(Th) is doing a lot better for Batman than the FSS/FSS— to be more precise maybe about a third for prev/prev vs like a sixth for postprev/postprev. NWH had already sold out many of the best Th screens/seats and spilled over quite a lot, whereas Batman hasn’t. You can check out @Inceptionzq prev/Fri/Sat/Sun ratios to see this in action.

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

When you account for the early fan events, it should be well over 20m IMO

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Derby Legion

[meridan]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don't think it will be exactly 45 days, this is more an average than a rule, it depends more of the numbers the movies are pulling.

 

Disney said the same for Shang Chi / Eternals and both ended up getting +60 days exclusivity. 

 

I doubt it will be different with WB and Batman.

In an interview with the Recode podcast (via ComicBook.com), WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar claimed that The Batman will start streaming on HBO Max exactly 46 days after hitting theaters.

“Think about when movies would show up on HBO, which is 8 to 9 months after theatrical premiere,” Kilar said while speaking to Recode’s Peter Kafka. “The Batman is going to show up on day 46 on HBO Max. That is a huge change from where things were in 2018, 2017, 2016.”

[Menor the Destroyer]

38 minutes ago, Caesar said:

 

 

It's got a full month entirely to itself, even if it opens to $100m it can still easily go over $400m with good WOM.

No. Even great WOM will not get it to a 4x multiplier. Only recent big CBM managing that was Wonder Woman which appealed to a very different audience and had summer. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[WittyUsername]

The Batman has generated the most online buzz I’ve seen for a DC movie since 2016, and both of the DC movies released that year had a fair amount of skepticism and controversy. Meanwhile, people keep talking about how great The Batman is and how confident WB is about it.
 

I know the landscape for cinema has changed significantly since 2016, but I stand by my belief that $120 million OW should be the absolute bare minimum. 

[Dragoncaine]

Maybe I'm pulling for this movie, but I also don't see it settling for $100-110m lol. I think we'll have a clearer picture top of next week. My first prediction was $130m so still holding to that

Edited February 22, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I think people are forgetting the presale prices will also be inflated due to the fan events being in Dolby, IMAX, PLF, which will account for majority of the current sales. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/20/2022 at 4:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

565

3112

18.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

349

3405

10.25%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 5 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1972	297	29492	6.69%	14	190

 

AMCs sold	1529
Cinemarks sold	115
Regals sold	192
Harkins sold	136

 

Tuesday:

Total

1034

26

1428

Wednesday:

Total

738

167

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

3744

490

32147

 

0.286x NWH T-11 (14.31M)

2.48x Eternals T-11 (23.54M)

2.03x Black Widow T-11 (26.79M)

 

I somehow didn't add two theaters for the Wednesday showings to the total, so it was undercounted. I fixed it for the last time I counted and today so even though there were 490 tickets sold the past few days, 631 were added to the total.

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

596

3112

19.15%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

378

3405

11.10%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2185	213	29492	7.41%	14	190

 

AMCs sold	1626
Cinemarks sold	153
Regals sold	239
Harkins sold	167

 

Tuesday:

1046

14

1428

Wednesday:

790

52

1227

Overall:

4021

279

32147

 

0.292x NWH T-19 (14.60M)

2.43x Eternals T-9 (23.09M)

1.96x Black Widow T-9 (25.87M)

[AnDr3s]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

And lets be honest, many will be inclined to wait till those 45 days are over. People are lazy.

first of all do you think they know about the 45 days thing?

or even remember that

Edited February 22, 2022 by AnDr3s

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/20/2022 at 4:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2301(+21)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(90 showings): 2128(+499)/26353 in 15 theaters

 

0.246x NWH's T-11 (12.30M)

3.61x Eternals' T-11 (34.30M)

1.95x Black Widow T-11 (25.74M)

 

Friday(144 showings): 1770(+498)/44721 in 15 theaters

0.136x NWH's T-12 (9.78M)

1.90x Eternals' T-12 (40.55M)

1.14x Black Widow T-12 (29.98M)

 

Saturday(151 showings): 927(+332)/46551 in 15 theaters

0.135x NWH's T-13 (9.98M)

2.02x Eternals' T-13 (48.72M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 217(+100)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.135x NWH's T-14 (8.66M)

1.94x Eternals' T-14 (31.68M)

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2304(+3)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(97 showings): 2361(+233)/28165 in 15 theaters

 

0.244x NWH's T-9 (12.20M)

3.34x Eternals' T-9 (31.73M)

1.87x Black Widow T-9 (24.68M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 2086(+316)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.147x NWH's T-10 (10.57M)

1.85x Eternals' T-10 (39.48M)

1.16x Black Widow T-10 (30.51M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1094(+167)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.137x NWH's T-11 (10.12M)

1.96x Eternals' T-11 (47.28M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 267(+50)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.143x NWH's T-12 (9.18M)

2.14x Eternals' T-12 (34.95M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/20/2022 at 4:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(222 showings): 8907(+1646)/31377 ATP: $14.92

0.358x NWH's T-11 (17.90M)

1.86x Eternals T-11 (17.67M)

 

Friday(332 showings): 8886(+1922)/47626   ATP: $15.05

0.413x NWH's T-12 (29.71M)

2.10x Eternals T-12 (44.81M)

 

Saturday(350 showings): 8431(+2383)/50209   ATP: $14.61

0.412x NWH's T-13 (30.45M)

1.96x Eternals T-13 (47.28M)

 

Sunday(337 showings): 3533(+1071)/48084   ATP: $14.45

0.348x NWH's T-14 (22.33M)

1.41x Eternals T-14 (23.03M)

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(222 showings): 9688(+781)/31377 ATP: $14.91

0.378x NWH's T-9 (18.90M)

1.89x Eternals T-9 (17.96M)

 

Friday(327 showings): 9814(+928)/46788 ATP: $15.05

0.430x NWH's T-10 (30.93M)

2.12x Eternals T-10 (45.24M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 9615(+1184)/50030 ATP: $14.51

0.436x NWH's T-11 (32.22M)

2.05x Eternals T-11 (49.45M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 4212(+679)/45569 ATP: $14.45

0.371x NWH's T-12 (22.81M)

1.53x Eternals T-12 (24.98M)

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don't think it will be exactly 45 days, this is more an average than a rule, it depends more of the numbers the movies are pulling.

 

Disney said the same for Shang Chi / Eternals and both ended up getting +60 days exclusivity. 

 

I doubt it will be different with WB and Batman.

They already said 45 days. They even mentioned the exact day, it is April 19.

 

https://collider.com/the-batman-hbo-max-release-date/

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

They already said 45 days. They even mentioned the exact day, it is April 19.

 

https://collider.com/the-batman-hbo-max-release-date/

 

They didn't mention the exact day. That was people calculating it, but WB nor Kilar ever said "Batman will be on HBO Max on April 19". That is one thing that didn't happen.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

They didn't mention the exact day. That was people calculating it, but WB nor Kilar ever said "Batman will be on HBO Max on April 19". That is one thing that didn't happen.

They said it was the 46 day after OD. How is that not saying?

[charlie Jatinder]

I agree with @Derby Legion IM.

 

Batman, in fact DC is previews heavier than Marvel.

 

Film	Previews	Friday	% Share
Batman Begins
The Dark Knight	$18.50	$67.16	27.55%
The Dark Knight Rises	$30.64	$75.75	40.45%
Man of Steel	$21.00	$68.13	30.82%
Batman v Superman	$27.70	$81.56	33.96%
Suicide Squad	$20.50	$64.89	31.59%
Wonder Woman	$11.00	$38.25	28.76%
Justice League	$13.00	$38.47	33.79%
Aquaman	$9.00	$27.73	32.46%
Shazam	$5.90	$20.35	28.99%
Birds of Prey	$4.00	$12.96	30.86%
Wonder Woman 1984		$7.48	0.00%
The Suicide Squad	$4.10	$12.10	33.88%
Joker	$13.30	$39.35	33.80%
The Batman	$20.00	$51.30	39.00%

 

I don't think those 2 days of early access really gonna change things much because almost every one of those would have watched it on THU or may be $500k worth on FRI/SAT.

 

I have been thinking

 

19-21
29-34
35-44
24-32

 

Total - 107-131

Edited February 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[grim22]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

They said it was the 46 day after OD. How is that not saying?

Saying they will have a 46 day window and saying the exact date are 2 different things. You said "they announced the date" and they didn't. Announcing the date would actually be committing to it, but with saying 46 day window for most of our movies it leaves them the option to go back on it if they want. One would be considered a contract with the audience and advertising, the other is just something you say as a feature of your service with terms and conditions attached.

 

WB confirming April 19 would have been them actually telling the trades to run a story instead of comments on a podcast which were picked up by the comic book press. Notice that no trades or major publications ever ran with the date.

[Cooper Legion]

Oh my GOD the pedantry. Kilar is extremely clear in that quote that it’s coming on day 46.

[Cooper Legion]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I have been thinking

 

19-21
29-34
37-44
25-32

 

Total - 110-131

Fwiw this is like 5.75-6.25 whereas I gave 5-6.25. If I had to pin down a narrower window maybe like 5.3-5.8 for me, still thinking Sat single digits rather than the almost 30% here.

[CJohn]

Yeah, but nonsense aside, The Batman will be on HBO MAX on its 46 day of theatrical release and that has been widely said and announced. It is what it is. They will promote it heavily.

[charlie Jatinder]

Whether it's 45 days or 30 days or 90 days.

 

It doesn't really matter for now. If it was 10 days or 17 days then slightly.

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah. I think a 45 day window is pretty clear, but I also doubt it matters much. Overlap between people who would go OW and those who wanna wait 45 days is probably pretty small.