The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[misterpepp]

Both Ambulance and The Bad Guys should've repositioned themselves into that mid/late-March period where hardly anything was coming out. Might not have completely turned around their financial prospects, but I suspect they would've done at least a little better. I worry they're about to get buried where they are now.

[Eric the Minion]

On 4/1/2022 at 11:29 PM, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	930	11185	8.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 128

 

Comp

0.556x of Shang-Chi T-6 (4.89M)

0.832x of Venom 2 T-6 (9.66M)

1.225x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-6 (5.51M)

2.302x of Uncharted T-6 (8.52M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.725x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-6 (8.17M)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	1025	11185	9.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 95

 

Comp

0.573x of Shang-Chi T-5 (5.05M)

0.807x of Venom 2 T-5 (9.36M)

1.278x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-5 (5.75M)

2.283x of Uncahrted T-5 (8.45M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.749x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-5 (8.25M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 4/1/2022 at 11:34 PM, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	495	15949	3.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp

0.526x of Shang-Chi T-13 (4.63M)

0.846x of No Time to Die t-13 (5.33M)

0.734x of Dune T-13 (3.74M)

0.317x of Eternals T-13 (3.01M)

1.074x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-13 (4.83M)

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	529	15949	3.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Comp

0.541x of Shang-Chi T-12 (4.76M)

0.841x of No Time to Die T-12 (5.3M)

0.739x of Dune T-12 (3.77M)

0.321x of Eternals T-12 (3.05M)

1.093x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-12 (4.92M)

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, datpepper said:

Both Ambulance and The Bad Guys should've repositioned themselves into that mid/late-March period where hardly anything was coming out. Might not have completely turned around their financial prospects, but I suspect they would've done at least a little better. I worry they're about to get buried where they are now.

I think it has little thing to do with release date but the way that universal position these film as their peacock product rather than a theatrical product. 

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	1025	11185	9.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 95

 

Comp

0.573x of Shang-Chi T-5 (5.05M)

0.807x of Venom 2 T-5 (9.36M)

1.278x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-5 (5.75M)

2.283x of Uncahrted T-5 (8.45M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.749x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-5 (8.25M)

that seems pretty good for a walk-up heavy family film right?

Edited April 3, 2022 by cooldude97

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think it has little thing to do with release date but the way that universal position these film as their peacock product rather than a theatrical product. 

Neither are streaming on Peacock simultaneously 

[filmlover]

DreamWorks hasn't been a consistent brand in a while and the premise for The Bad Guys makes it sound a decade behind since "villains turning heroic" cartoons were all the rage around that time (Despicable Me, Megamind, Wreck-It Ralph). Can't say I'm surprised it's looking to come and go without making much noise. On the other hand now that Lightyear is a confirmed theatrical exclusive I think that's poised to blow up when it comes out.

[Porthos]

On 4/1/2022 at 11:29 PM, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	22557	23260	703	3.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

105

 

T-13 Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	66.07		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		5847	12.02%		5.81m
NTTD	90.13		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		7712	9.12%		5.59m
Dune	108.82		34	646		0/75	11185/11831	5.46%		2915	24.12%		5.55m
GB:A	193.13		49	364		0/108	16331/16695	2.18%		3034	23.17%		8.69m
Morbius	101.74		62	691		0/127	18084/18775	3.68%		3477	20.22%		5.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:       115/5540  [2.08% sold]
Matinee:    39/3307  [1.18% | 5.55% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Shifted over to T-x and... not too bad at all considering every other movie was on sale for at least one more day.  Another nice day of sales, all things considered, IMO.

 

Did remove the "Extremely Unofficial" FB2 comp though since there is a 14 day difference in pre-sale length making the comp utterly unusable.  Will think about bringing back in sometime late next week.

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	22503	23260	757	3.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

T-12 Comps

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	65.88		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		5847	12.95%		5.80m
NTTD	93.23		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		7712	9.82%		5.78m
Dune	107.99		55	701		0/75	11130/11831	5.93%		2915	25.97%		5.51m
GB:A	188.78		37	401		0/108	16294/16695	2.40%		3034	24.95%		8.50m
Morbius	101.61		54	745		0/127	17997/18742	3.98%		3477	21.77%		5.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:      120/5540  [2.17% sold]
Matinee:    42/3307  [1.27% | 5.55% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 6, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 4/1/2022 at 11:31 PM, Porthos said:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	11893	12937	1044	8.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

130

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	188.45		36	554		0/87	14570/15124	3.66%		2352	44.39%		7.73m
SC	53.21		188	1962		0/111	15649/17611	11.14%		5847	17.86%		4.68m
LTBC	57.21		180	1825		0/173	26373/28198	6.47%		7712	13.54%		6.64m
GB:A	130.83		62	798		0/115	16561/17359	4.60%		5847	17.86%		5.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	65.71		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		4407	22.26%		4.88m
Sonic (adj)	---		121	981		0/80	9937/10918	8.99%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.91797xx Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [4.4m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    297/1700   [17.47% sold]   +36 tickets]
Thursday sales:      747/11237   [6.65% sold]   +94 tickets]
---    
Regal:      177/3088  [5.73% sold]
Matinee:    51/2387  [2.14% | 4.89% of all tickets sold]

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	11748	12937	1189	9.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

145

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	194.92		56	610		0/87	14514/15124	4.03%		2352	50.55%		7.99m
SC	55.43		183	2145		0/113	15466/17611	12.18%		5847	20.34%		4.88m
LTBC	59.21		183	2008		0/173	26190/28198	7.12%		7712	15.42%		6.87m
GB:A	129.24		122	920		0/117	16629/17549	5.24%		5847	20.34%		5.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-5 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	68.49		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		4407	24.96%		5.09m
Sonic (adj)	---		119	1100		0/80	9818/10918	10.08%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.94371x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [4.6m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    328/1700   [19.29% sold]   +31 tickets]
Thursday sales:      861/11237   [7.66% sold]   +114 tickets]
---    
Regal:      201/3088  [6.51% sold]
Matinee:    70/2387  [2.93% | 5.89% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos
correcting error in Pika comp

[Joyous Legion]

Sonic sales looking real nice across the board. 

[YM!]

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 (4 days before previews, 5 before release)

4/3/22

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, Wi

 

3:00 - 13/301

4:15 - 4/146

6:30 - 10/301

7:15 - 9/146

Comparisons: 

38.7% of Toy Story 4 ($4.64M previews/$46.8M OW)

81.8% of Aladdin ($5.72M previews/$74.86M OW)

128.6% of Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($7.32M previews/$69.9M (nice) OW)

171.4% on Onward ($3.42M previews/$66.86M OW)

 

All of these comparisons are pre-COVID but they suggest really good numbers around $65m-70m with an average of $5.275M as I especially like the Aladdin and Pikachu comparisons so long as it continues to hold. However, I’m going about my gut this time with it, while I think previews wise it makes sense and my gospel for a theater in Wisconsin shouldn’t be an apt comparison but I’ve been getting Lego Batman and Pikachu vibes from it for the past few weeks now. I think if $60m was likely or even $55m+, it’d be at 50 tickets sold here. Especially when Sonic will probably skew older and male-er than most of these comparisons, alongside the kind of numbers @Porthos has been seeing in one of the biggest movie markets. 36 is respectable but I do worry about the bump leading up to this Tuesday. I’m thinking $45m-$55m with around $4.5M-$5.0M in previews.

Edited April 3, 2022 by YourMother

[YM!]

Hmmm, well Dumbledore is overindexed here. It’s already the biggest post COVID seller that I’ve tracked here (didn’t do NWH or Batman due to timelines) as it’s already at 97% of Venom 2 and Shang-Chi’s Tuesday before release sales here. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by YourMother

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/2/2022 at 8:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-12	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	177	18	1.72%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	210	21	2.46%
		Raleigh	8	41	5,253	275	32	5.24%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		20	137	24,108	662	71	2.75%
T-4	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	105	14	11.15%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	90	15	43.27%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	28	3	10.73%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	223	32	15.80%
T-5	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	5	0	0.20%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,309	20	1	0.87%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,163	16	0	1.38%
	Ambulance Total		20	36	5,929	41	1	0.69%
T-5	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	40	6,196	187	15	3.02%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,080	254	32	6.23%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,364	232	22	6.90%
	Sonic Total		20	88	13,640	673	69	4.93%

 

Sonic 2 T-5 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - F9 - .59x (4.19m)

 - Lost City - 3.12x (7.9m)

(Still waiting for my younger audience movie comps to kick in)

 

Ambulance T-5 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .38x (531k)

 - Resident Evil - .56x (525k)

 - Green Knight - .76x (569k)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-4 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .4x

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-12 comps

 - Shang Chi - .87x (7.675m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.595x (6.62m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Morbius - 1.197x (6.82m)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-11	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	215	38	2.08%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	230	20	2.69%
		Raleigh	8	41	5,253	310	35	5.90%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		20	137	24,108	755	93	3.13%
T-3	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	115	10	12.21%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	92	2	44.23%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	39	11	14.94%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	246	23	17.43%
T-4	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	7	2	0.28%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,309	26	6	1.13%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,163	19	3	1.63%
	Ambulance Total		20	36	5,929	52	11	0.88%
T-4	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	40	6,196	231	44	3.73%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,080	288	34	7.06%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,364	255	23	7.58%
	Sonic Total		20	88	13,640	774	101	5.67%

 

Sonic 2 T-4 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .96x (4m)

 - Uncharted - missed

 - F9 - .62x (4.43m)

 - Lost City - 3.23x (8.06m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 10.6x (13.89m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 11.38x (10.244m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.79x (10.244m)

 - Encanto - 4.78x (7.167m)

 

I don't know where this will end up, but sales are looking really good so far.

 

Ambulance T-4 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .41x (569k)

 - Resident Evil - .51x (481k)

 - Green Knight - .81x (609k)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-3 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .39x

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-11 comps

 - Shang Chi - .937x (8.24m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.732x (7.186m)

 - NTTD - 1.66x (8.63m)

 - F9 - 1.01x (7.195m)

[Dragoncaine]

1 hour ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

 

Not even remotely surprising, and IMO, deserved. The climbing RT audience score is honestly shocking to me. I know 69% is terrible for a CBM, but how is the average rating a 3.8/5?

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

21 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Not even remotely surprising, and IMO, deserved. The climbing RT audience score is honestly shocking to me. I know 69% is terrible for a CBM, but how is the average rating a 3.8/5?

I have no idea. Reading the audience reviews just seems to be mindless Marvel or Spider-Man fans. Like, lots of them praising the post credits scenes. 

[Samwise the Brave]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-11	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	53	10,314	215	38	2.08%
		Phoenix	6	43	8,541	230	20	2.69%
		Raleigh	8	41	5,253	310	35	5.90%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		20	137	24,108	755	93	3.13%
T-3	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	115	10	12.21%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	92	2	44.23%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	39	11	14.94%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	246	23	17.43%
T-4	Ambulance	Jacksonville	6	14	2,457	7	2	0.28%
		Phoenix	6	12	2,309	26	6	1.13%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,163	19	3	1.63%
	Ambulance Total		20	36	5,929	52	11	0.88%
T-4	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	40	6,196	231	44	3.73%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,080	288	34	7.06%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,364	255	23	7.58%
	Sonic Total		20	88	13,640	774	101	5.67%

 

Sonic 2 T-4 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .96x (4m)

 - Uncharted - missed

 - F9 - .62x (4.43m)

 - Lost City - 3.23x (8.06m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 10.6x (13.89m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 11.38x (10.244m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.79x (10.244m)

 - Encanto - 4.78x (7.167m)

 

I don't know where this will end up, but sales are looking really good so far.

 

Ambulance T-4 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .41x (569k)

 - Resident Evil - .51x (481k)

 - Green Knight - .81x (609k)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-3 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .39x

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-11 comps

 - Shang Chi - .937x (8.24m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.732x (7.186m)

 - NTTD - 1.66x (8.63m)

 - F9 - 1.01x (7.195m)

Am i missing something or is SoD performing really great. Don't know how to interpret these numbers. 

[Old Spice]

5 minutes ago, Samwise the Brave said:

Am i missing something or is SoD performing really great. Don't know how to interpret these numbers. 

It has had a really strange trajectory for a fan-driven IP here in Salt Lake. First day was pretty tame, but it has been strong ever since. Would have expected the opposite.

[katnisscinnaplex]

44 minutes ago, Samwise the Brave said:

Am i missing something or is SoD performing really great. Don't know how to interpret these numbers. 

It's been really solid so far, and not just the first day rush.  

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, YourMother said:

Hmmm, well Dumbledore is overindexed here. It’s already the biggest post COVID seller that I’ve tracked here (didn’t do NWH or Batman due to timelines) as it’s already at 97% of Venom 2 and Shang-Chi’s Tuesday before release sales here. 

 

1 hour ago, Samwise the Brave said:

Am i missing something or is SoD performing really great. Don't know how to interpret these numbers. 

 

1 hour ago, A Star is Orm said:

It has had a really strange trajectory for a fan-driven IP here in Salt Lake. First day was pretty tame, but it has been strong ever since. Would have expected the opposite.

 

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

It's been really solid so far, and not just the first day rush.  

 

Yes, I am more than a little surprised about how well FB3 is doing, especially after that IMO horrific first day of sales.

 

Now this is complicated by the compressed calendar and it had a world premiere + its social media drop on the very first day of sales, which makes comping more than a little difficult.  Especially against films which will have that later in their runs.

 

Still, even with mostly good buzz out of the premiere/critic screenings, I was expecting FB3 to fall off a cliff or at least have tepid sales.  But last night was the first "meh" day since the opening but Saturdays are notorious for being one of the weakest days of pre-sales, especially when we're still this far out, so even there it did fairly well when taken into context.

 

Now I don't want to oversell what I'm saying above.  But gotta call it like I see it [so far]: FB3 is doing better than I would have thought after the initial start.  Will it continue to do so?  Find out soon enuf.