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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-0 Doctor Strange 2 Jacksonville 7 187 26,589 6,696 894 25.18%
    Phoenix 7 171 21,988 7,225 763 32.86%
    Raleigh 8 161 17,407 6,810 738 39.12%
  Doctor Strange 2 Total   22 519 65,984 20,731 2,395 31.42%

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 3.859x (36.66m)

 - Shang-Chi - 5.058x (44.51m)

 - Black Widow - 2.816x (37.17m)

 - No Way Home - .598x (29.888m)

 

Average - 37.06m

 

DS2 T-0 comps

 - Spider-Man - .668x (33.39m)

 - Black Widow - 3.58x (47.25m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 2.287x (40.25m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.835x (39.63m)

 - Eternals - 5.x (47.5m)

 

Average - 42.1m

Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
Doctor Strange 2 Jacksonville 7 187 26,589 7,638 942 28.73%
  Phoenix 7 172 22,029 7,810 585 35.45%
  Raleigh 8 161 17,407 7,626 816 43.81%
DS 2 Total   22 520 66,025 23,074 2,343 34.95%

*<6pm shows were pulled at 2pm (hour before early shows) as normal.  Rest of the shows I started at 4:30pm (normally would do 5pm but wanted to make sure I had time to get them all.)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 4.295x (40.805m)

 - Shang-Chi - 5.629x (49.537m)

 - Black Widow - 3.134x (41.371m)

 - No Way Home - .665x (33.266m)

(missed Batman 1 hr update)

 

Comps average - 41.24m

PG-13 movies average - 47.466m

CBM movies average - 42.98m

3pm previews movies average - 50.49m

 

Not really any point to looking at many comps outside of NWH in my opinion.  A bit lower than I would want to see, so I'll put my regionals prediction at 35m.  

 

ATP comps

DS 2 - 13.85

Eternals - 13.84

Batman (as of T-0) - 13.65

Shang-Chi - 13.41

No Way Home - 12.88

Black Widow - 12.81

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15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
Doctor Strange 2 Jacksonville 7 187 26,589 7,638 942 28.73%
  Phoenix 7 172 22,029 7,810 585 35.45%
  Raleigh 8 161 17,407 7,626 816 43.81%
DS 2 Total   22 520 66,025 23,074 2,343 34.95%

*<6pm shows were pulled at 2pm (hour before early shows) as normal.  Rest of the shows I started at 4:30pm (normally would do 5pm but wanted to make sure I had time to get them all.)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 4.295x (40.805m)

 - Shang-Chi - 5.629x (49.537m)

 - Black Widow - 3.134x (41.371m)

 - No Way Home - .665x (33.266m)

(missed Batman 1 hr update)

 

Comps average - 41.24m

PG-13 movies average - 47.466m

CBM movies average - 42.98m

3pm previews movies average - 50.49m

 

Not really any point to looking at many comps outside of NWH in my opinion.  A bit lower than I would want to see, so I'll put my regionals prediction at 35m.  

 

ATP comps

DS 2 - 13.85

Eternals - 13.84

Batman (as of T-0) - 13.65

Shang-Chi - 13.41

No Way Home - 12.88

Black Widow - 12.81

I am not sure extrapolating from smaller movies makes that much sense. NWH is the best comp for DS2. 

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True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

April 29, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 3:30PM CST 

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

643 show times -- 31882 total seats sold -- 18674 PLF seats sold -- 1669 3-D seats sold -- 11539 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 58.6% PLF -- 8.9% 3-D -- 32.5% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4400

 

Comp: The Batman (1.7524x = $61.35M True Friday)

Comp: Morbius (6.970x = $80.9M True Friday)

 

 

True Friday Estimate: $55-60M

Full Friday Estimate: $92-98M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $205-212M

 

Spoiler

Comments 

Obviously MOM is the biggest movie I've tracked so far (using my 15 theaters at least.) While the numbers indicate $61M comped against The Batman and $81M comped against Morbius, I believe it's certainly more presale heavy than either of them if due to nothing more than sheer size. I'm estimating $36-38M in previews and a rough 5.7x IM. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 



Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)

AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)

AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Council Bluffs, IA)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

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14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

35m seems to be where its headed even based on Alpha report. Hopefully @ZackM will update soon. 

I’ll be posting final presale numbers in a bit and final numbers in the morning…with some updates along the way.

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4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:40pm]

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

408

27068

46529

19461

41.83%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night

4

Total Seats Added Since Last Night

194

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

1194

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold T-0
[Mid-Day]

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

NWH [11-30 - 12:40]

73.65

 

1358

26425

 

0/386

16423/42848

61.67%

 

28183

69.05%

 

36.82m

Batsy [11:30 - 12:35]

185.73

 

939

10478

 

1/327

28376/38854

26.97%

 

11757

165.53%

 

40.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Doctor Strange in the Multitude of Madness's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     4581/11857  [38.64% sold]
Matinee:    1538/4862  [31.63% | 7.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Good start to the day.  Probably converging on 37m-39m, depending on which comp is more accurate.

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:30pm - 4:35pm]

NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:30pm were sampled at the start of that showtime.

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

409

25412

46529

21117

45.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1656

 

T-0 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold Since
Mid-Day

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

NWH [3:00 - 4:30]

74.93

 

1758

28183

 

4/395

15229/43412

64.92%

 

28183

74.93%

 

37.46m

Batsy [3:00 - 4:30]

179.61

 

1279

11757

 

1/328

27144/38901

30.22%

 

11757

179.61%

 

38.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Doctor Strange in the Multitude of Madness's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       5050/11857  [42.59% sold]
Matinee:    1827/4862  [37.58% | 8.65% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Nothing too out of the ordinary here, at least for Marvel.  Let's say 37.5m +/- 1m.

 

FWIW, the 3D ticket penetration was larger for MoM than NWH:

 

NWH 3D tickets:  7.0% of all sales.

MoM 3D tickets: 11.3% of all sales.

 

A decent jump, but not supremely large jump.  But if this comes in at 38 or so, that might be a good reason why (along with the ticket inflation that's occurred since NWH).

Edited by Porthos
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Sorry for the delay...got held up with some work stuff.  Here are the final presale numbers from a ~2pm run:

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 63 193 961 662 6
Seats Added 2,684 13,944 95,395 64,909 1,591
Seats Sold 55,979 38,340 38,455 27,969 19,401
           
5/5/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 430 9,368 557,134 1,401,453 39.75%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 17 205 759 1,689 2,777
           
ATP          
$15.96          

 

 

 

Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Comps
  Spider-Man: No Way Home The Batman Net
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0 - - - - - -
T-0 $33.0 $36.9 $32.9 $30.4 $33.0 $34.7
T-1 $32.9 $36.7 $33.9 $30.9 $33.2 $34.7
T-2 $32.6 $36.5 $34.9 $31.6 $33.3 $34.9
T-3 $32.1 $35.9 $35.3 $31.8 $33.0 $34.6
T-4 $31.1 $34.9 $35.8 $32.0 $32.4 $34.0
T-5 $30.4 $34.2 $35.7 $31.8 $31.9 $33.5
T-6 $30.2 $34.0 $35.9 $31.9 $31.7 $33.3
T-7 $29.9 $33.5 $35.9 $31.9 $31.5 $33.0
T-8 $29.5 $33.0 $35.5 $31.5 $31.1 $32.6

 

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10 hours ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 300 17321 51899 33.37%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,783

 

Comp

0.661x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-1 (33.04M)

1.757x of The Batman T-1 (37.95M)

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 8 300 20592 51899 39.68%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 6

Total Seats Sold Today: 3,271

 

Comp

0.670x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (33.5M)

1.653x of The Batman (35.7M)

 

So...34M? Yeah, 34M.

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37 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:30pm - 4:35pm]

NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:30pm were sampled at the start of that showtime.

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

409

25412

46529

21117

45.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1656

 

T-0 Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold Since
Mid-Day

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

NWH [3:00 - 4:30]

74.93

 

1758

28183

 

4/395

15229/43412

64.92%

 

28183

74.93%

 

37.46m

Batsy [3:00 - 4:30]

179.61

 

1279

11757

 

1/328

27144/38901

30.22%

 

11757

179.61%

 

38.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Doctor Strange in the Multitude of Madness's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       5050/11857  [42.59% sold]
Matinee:    1827/4862  [37.58% | 8.65% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Nothing too out of the ordinary here, at least for Marvel.  Let's say 37.5m +/- 1m.

 

FWIW, the 3D ticket penetration was larger for MoM than NWH:

 

NWH 3D tickets:  7.0% of all sales.

MoM 3D tickets: 11.3% of all sales.

 

A decent jump, but not supremely large jump.  But if this comes in at 38 or so, that might be a good reason why (along with the ticket inflation that's occurred since NWH).

 

How much price inflation has occurred since NWH?

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11 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

 

How much price inflation has occurred since NWH?

 

Depends on the chain/location.  Ultimately, not a lot in the grand scheme of things as ticket price boosts were starting to be rolled out with/right before NWH, but there's probably been some in the aggregate.  The 3D difference is more important, anyway.  At least, IMO.

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I think Imax/PLF have some slightly elevated premium pricing. i doubt regular 2d shows have that. We will know for sure once preview numbers come it. At most I would pencil in 4-5%. in the case of Alpha(which has highest % of PLF), it will skew slightly higher than overall. MTC2 will be lower. 3D is even smaller considering they are fewer 3d shows and they perform the worst among all formats. 

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35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Imax/PLF have some slightly elevated premium pricing. i doubt regular 2d shows have that. We will know for sure once preview numbers come it. At most I would pencil in 4-5%. in the case of Alpha(which has highest % of PLF), it will skew slightly higher than overall. MTC2 will be lower. 3D is even smaller considering they are fewer 3d shows and they perform the worst among all formats. 

The ATP of DSitMoM will be higher a bit for previews since it has more % coming from IMAX and other premium formats, having more shows in those + less sales in normal format than NWH as NWH had more spillover.

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3 hours ago, MultiverseXXR said:

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

April 29, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 3:30PM CST 

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

643 show times -- 31882 total seats sold -- 18674 PLF seats sold -- 1669 3-D seats sold -- 11539 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 58.6% PLF -- 8.9% 3-D -- 32.5% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4400

 

Comp: The Batman (1.7524x = $61.35M True Friday)

Comp: Morbius (6.970x = $80.9M True Friday)

 

 

True Friday Estimate: $55-60M

Full Friday Estimate: $92-98M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $205-212M

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Comments 

Obviously MOM is the biggest movie I've tracked so far (using my 15 theaters at least.) While the numbers indicate $61M comped against The Batman and $81M comped against Morbius, I believe it's certainly more presale heavy than either of them if due to nothing more than sheer size. I'm estimating $36-38M in previews and a rough 5.7x IM. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 



Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)

AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)

AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Council Bluffs, IA)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

643 shows :whosad:

iron-man-you-can-rest-now.gif

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First Update...Green is final, yellow is in progress.  Walkups have been huge.

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 - In Progress
           
  Walkups Last Day Presales 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 63 193 961 662
Seats Added 0 2,684 13,944 95,395 64,909
Seats Sold 79,330 55,979 38,340 38,455 27,969

 

 

 

 

Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Eastern Time Zone   Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 37,871 64.3% 169.6%   3:00-3:59 20,939 56.1% 176.2%
4:00-4:59 24,534 66.1% 278.0%   4:00-4:59 13,206 60.0% 343.8%
5:00-5:59 17,183 53.8% 231.2%   5:00-5:59 10,485 57.0% 233.2%
6:00-6:59 44,160 85.1% 306.6%   6:00-6:59 26,451 75.1% 288.5%
7:00-7:59 47,874 74.6% 124.2%   7:00-7:59 30,360 72.9% 125.6%
8:00-8:59 30,988 69.7% 130.7%   8:00-8:59 18,199 65.1% 163.2%
9:00-9:59 40,789 96.4% 325.1%   9:00-9:59 21,068 94.0% 317.2%
10:00-10:59 29,542 57.2% 331.7%   10:00-10:59 15,911 47.9% 343.2%
11:00-11:59 7,413 51.7% 71.7%   11:00-11:59 2,778 26.7% 47.3%
12:00+ 4,655 67.7% 408.7%   12:00+ 1,611 28.1% 436.6%
                 
Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Mountain Time Zone   Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 5,716 61.5% 169.2%   3:00-3:59 20,056 67.5% 157.7%
4:00-4:59 3,410 64.6% 381.0%   4:00-4:59 11,888 59.3% 226.4%
5:00-5:59 2,638 61.6% 222.4%   5:00-5:59 10,340 68.6% 269.0%
6:00-6:59 7,153 86.1% 316.4%   6:00-6:59 22,791 86.8% 271.2%
7:00-7:59 6,933 71.4% 112.3%   7:00-7:59 23,376 77.2% 119.9%
8:00-8:59 3,840 73.3% 140.6%   8:00-8:59 15,534 72.5% 138.0%
9:00-9:59 5,033 88.5% 316.3%   9:00-9:59 19,200 103.2% 256.2%
10:00-10:59 3,727 43.0% 386.2%   10:00-10:59 15,978 58.3% 291.6%
11:00-11:59 540 15.5% 31.3%   11:00-11:59 5,841 32.0% 75.8%
12:00+ 459 30.7% -   12:00+ 5,994 45.3% 368.9%

 

 

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Bullet Train confirmed for an IMAX release at the end of July:

 

Bullet Train | Nearby Showtimes, Tickets | IMAX

 

Official IMAX schedule for the summer:

 

May 6: Doctor Strange

May 27: Top Gun

June 10: Jurassic World

June 17: Lightyear

July 1: Minions

July 8: Thor

July 22: Nope

July 29: Bullet Train

 

Dolby Cinema is pretty much the same except Elvis and The Black Phone are supposed to be released in the format as well according to marketing materials (they would be fighting for space given that they both open June 24 if they hold) and Downton Abbey is apparently getting only a few of those screens in two weeks (Strange will keeping the majority of them until Top Gun).

 

 

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29 minutes ago, ZackM said:

First Update...Green is final, yellow is in progress.  Walkups have been huge.

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 - In Progress
           
  Walkups Last Day Presales 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 63 193 961 662
Seats Added 0 2,684 13,944 95,395 64,909
Seats Sold 79,330 55,979 38,340 38,455 27,969

 

 

 

 

Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Eastern Time Zone   Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 37,871 64.3% 169.6%   3:00-3:59 20,939 56.1% 176.2%
4:00-4:59 24,534 66.1% 278.0%   4:00-4:59 13,206 60.0% 343.8%
5:00-5:59 17,183 53.8% 231.2%   5:00-5:59 10,485 57.0% 233.2%
6:00-6:59 44,160 85.1% 306.6%   6:00-6:59 26,451 75.1% 288.5%
7:00-7:59 47,874 74.6% 124.2%   7:00-7:59 30,360 72.9% 125.6%
8:00-8:59 30,988 69.7% 130.7%   8:00-8:59 18,199 65.1% 163.2%
9:00-9:59 40,789 96.4% 325.1%   9:00-9:59 21,068 94.0% 317.2%
10:00-10:59 29,542 57.2% 331.7%   10:00-10:59 15,911 47.9% 343.2%
11:00-11:59 7,413 51.7% 71.7%   11:00-11:59 2,778 26.7% 47.3%
12:00+ 4,655 67.7% 408.7%   12:00+ 1,611 28.1% 436.6%
                 
Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Mountain Time Zone   Alpha - Doctor Strange MoM - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales NWH Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 5,716 61.5% 169.2%   3:00-3:59 20,056 67.5% 157.7%
4:00-4:59 3,410 64.6% 381.0%   4:00-4:59 11,888 59.3% 226.4%
5:00-5:59 2,638 61.6% 222.4%   5:00-5:59 10,340 68.6% 269.0%
6:00-6:59 7,153 86.1% 316.4%   6:00-6:59 22,791 86.8% 271.2%
7:00-7:59 6,933 71.4% 112.3%   7:00-7:59 23,376 77.2% 119.9%
8:00-8:59 3,840 73.3% 140.6%   8:00-8:59 15,534 72.5% 138.0%
9:00-9:59 5,033 88.5% 316.3%   9:00-9:59 19,200 103.2% 256.2%
10:00-10:59 3,727 43.0% 386.2%   10:00-10:59 15,978 58.3% 291.6%
11:00-11:59 540 15.5% 31.3%   11:00-11:59 5,841 32.0% 75.8%
12:00+ 459 30.7% -   12:00+ 5,994 45.3% 368.9%

 

 

Roughly around 700K finish at alpha? @charlie Jatinder would that be sufficient for high 30's previews?

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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Roughly around 700K finish at alpha? @charlie Jatinder would that be sufficient for high 30's previews?

Not sure it will quite reach 700k, maybe like 685. So unadjusted NWH comp will be 36.5 and ATP adjusted probably 2m higher or so. Maybe 37 since smaller chains like Megaplex might be weaker?

Edited by Menor Reborn
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