The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

While its not possible to get full MTC2 final data. Sample I got 140900/359632 1870027.13 2459 shows is pointing towards 3.3/3.4m for MTC2. That also points to 17m previews. May be with smaller markets over performing I will say ~ 17.5m previews. 

[Inceptionzq]

15 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-1 Friday(307 showings): 9230(+2143)/70577

0.727x Top Gun 2 T-1 (23.81M)

0.655x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (35.83M)

1.07x Batman T-1 (37.52M)

1.47x Black Widow T-1 (38.64M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-0 Friday(307 showings): 11484(+2254)/70577

0.747x Top Gun 2 T-0 (24.46M)

0.668x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (36.54M)

1.05x Batman T-0 (36.70M)

1.24x Black Widow T-0 (32.52M)

 

 

15 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Friday(367 showings): 17761(+3335)/47514 ATP: $14.22

1.13x Top Gun 2 T-1 (37.02M)

0.545x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (29.82M)

0.704x Batman T-1 (24.65M)

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Friday(367 showings): 20908(+3147)/47514 ATP: $14.11

1.09x Top Gun 2 T-0 (35.73M)

0.572x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (31.29M)

0.733x Batman T-0 (25.66M)

 

Adjusting the BW comp upward by 10%(probably a bit conservative) and taking out the outliers of Top Gun Megaplex and Batman Drafthouse, the comps average out to about 35M. If I go a bit further and remove the DS2 Drafthouse comp, then it averages out to about 36M. With Jurassic World expected to be more walkup heavy, it should beat out those comps by a bit. At the same time, the WoM seems to be the worst of the JW trilogy. But still, I would think(and hope) that 35-36M is worse case scenario even with this WoM.

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2022/06/jurassic-world-dominion-box-office-1235042811/

 

Quote

Universal/Amblin’s Jurassic World Dominion earned $18M in previews, but that’s not just from 4PM showtimes yesterday, but also other stunt previews earlier this week. The Colin Trevorrow directed movie played at 4,150 theaters.

 

Anybody know what they're talking about with stunt previews. I don't remember anything about previews from before Thursday.

[M37]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:35pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	290	22873	33839*	10966	32.41%

* NOTE: A showing that had been mistakenly set as non-reserved seating finally switched to reserved seating, adding 101 seats to the overall total in the region.

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid Day

1476

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	119.25		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9196	119.25%		16.48m
SC [4:40-5:30]	187.55		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		5847	187.55%		16.50m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	293.44		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	293.44%		18.19m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	51.93		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		2915	376.19%		18.69m
TG:M [3:30-4:35]	95.57		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	95.57%		18.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	226.07		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4407	226.07%		16.81m
JWD (adj)	---		1227	9963		0/261	20123/30086	33.12%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.3913x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [19.16m adj]
JW3 = 3.06671x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [17.39m adj]
JW3 = 0.89542x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [18.54m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:      2152/8248  [26.09% sold]
Matinee:    762/2182  [34.92% | 6.95% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

Man, I dunno.  One set of comps says 16.5m-16.75m while another set of comps says 18m-18.5m (FWIW, NWH says 19.45m).  Unofficial comps aren't helping much, either.  Those 16.5m comps all also had later start times and were thus taken later in the night (much later in the case of F9).  That and the PLF/3D/regular ticket hike prices also comes into play. 

 

I think the tie-breaker will be Top Gun: Maverick which is my most recent comp and should be in the right ballpark (less PLF and adult tickets sold but more 3D). Does seem to be a lot of foot traffic today, and all of the 16.5+m comps are from last year so let's go with 18m +/- .75m. 

 

Won't be surprised if it is around 17m, mind.  That KotM comp, for instance, is sitting out there out on an island by itself.

 

NB:  If I hike up BW/SC by 10 percent, I get 18.15m, which does seem to be in my range, so even though I'm tempted to go to 18.2 the difference in PLF between this and TGM is enough to make me want to be conservative.

https://twitter.com/boxoffice/status/1535269098229227521?s=21&t=nmTbQjAku9z7XZLqi0W55Q

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

17 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

https://deadline.com/2022/06/jurassic-world-dominion-box-office-1235042811/

 

 

Anybody know what they're talking about with stunt previews. I don't remember anything about previews from before Thursday.

I never saw anything, and showtime source didn't have any either.  There's this... http://www.mindonmovies.com/2022/05/jurassic-world-dominion-screening.html

 

I don't know how those advance screenings work though.  I'm just gonna assume that deadline is assuming there were early access shows since every movie has them these days.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	JW3	PLF	32	433	4,050	6,844	59.18%	$16.14	$65,372.46
		Standard	94	1,245	4,889	12,050	40.57%	$11.71	$57,242.99
	JW3 Total		126	1,678	8,939	18,894	47.31%	$13.72	$122,615.45
T-1	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	61	637	5,304	13,142	40.36%	$15.30	$81,148.33
		Standard	153	1,314	4,913	19,838	24.77%	$11.26	$55,303.61
	JW3 (Fri) Total		214	1,951	10,217	32,980	30.98%	$13.36	$136,451.94

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	JW3	N	104	1,361	7,413	15,781	46.97%	$14.41	$106,843.18
		Y	22	317	1,526	3,113	49.02%	$10.34	$15,772.27
	JW3 Total		126	1,678	8,939	18,894	47.31%	$13.72	$122,615.45
T-1	JW3 (Fri)	N	107	1,081	6,476	16,697	38.79%	$14.54	$94,176.57
		Y	107	870	3,741	16,283	22.97%	$11.30	$42,275.37
	JW3 (Fri) Total		214	1,951	10,217	32,980	30.98%	$13.36	$136,451.94

 

JW3 Thu T-0 comp

 - DS 2 - .564x (20.286m)

 - NWH - .45x (22.5m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.195x (21.04m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.128x (24.36m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.75x (25.69m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.378x (26.6m)

 

Others

 - Morbius - 4.54x (25.86m)

 - Sonic 2 - 4.42x (22.03m)

 - FB3 - 4.44x (26.62m)

 

It's hard to ignore how well JW3 has performed here.  Based solely on Santikos I would have predicted ~22m for previews.  Taking other areas into account, maybe we get close to 18m?  Tough to say

 

JW3 Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .562x (40.47m)

 - Batman - 1.32x (46.24m)

 - DS2 - .767x (41.96m)

 - TG2 - 1.766x (57.76m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	61	1,547	6,851	13,142	52.13%	$15.09	$103,348.30
		Standard	154	3,155	8,068	19,882	40.58%	$11.02	$88,881.02
	JW3 (Fri) Total		215	4,702	14,919	33,024	45.18%	$12.88	$192,229.32

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	JW3 (Fri)	N	108	2,222	8,698	16,741	51.96%	$14.30	$124,395.05
		Y	107	2,480	6,221	16,283	38.21%	$10.90	$67,834.27
	JW3 (Fri) Total		215	4,702	14,919	33,024	45.18%	$12.88	$192,229.32

 

JW3 Fri T-0 comps

 - NWH - .687x (49.42m)

 - Batman - 1.52x (53.05m)

 - DS2 - .935x (51.19m)

 - TG2 - 1.766x (57.78m)

 

Okay Santikos, we get it.  You're making all the money this weekend.  Every comp for Thursday was high here, so we'll expect the same today.

 

Adjusted JW3 Fri comps

 - NWH - 39.53m

 - Batman - 39.19m

 - DS2 - 45.4m

 - TG2 - 39.1m

 

This looks much more realistic.  I'll set my expectations on 40m for true Friday

[Alex SciChannel]

10 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I never saw anything, and showtime source didn't have any either.  There's this... http://www.mindonmovies.com/2022/05/jurassic-world-dominion-screening.html

 

I don't know how those advance screenings work though.  I'm just gonna assume that deadline is assuming there were early access shows since every movie has them these days.

These are FREE early screening passes for the GP to be in the same showing the press and critics are at. I know this because I used MindOnMovies to get my passes to see Dominion on Tuesday in Raleigh

Edited June 10, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Brainbug]

Santikos sure seems to love its dinos.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[ZackM]

So it ended up comping nicely with Maverick Thursday-only which was somewhat expected...Excellent.  Moving forward I'm going to find a new way to account for Tuesday and Wednesday early screenings in my comps.  They seem to really muddy the waters when they're just factored in straight away.

Edited June 10, 2022 by ZackM

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

Excellent.  Moving forward I'm going to find a new way to account for Tuesday and Wednesday early screenings in my comps.  They seem to really muddy the waters when they're just factored in straight away.

You may have already said, but did your numbers include the double feature showings?

[ZackM]

47 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

You may have already said, but did your numbers include the double feature showings?

If they were listed separately from Dominion alone on Alpha’s site, then no, I did not capture them.

Edited June 10, 2022 by ZackM

[keysersoze123]

Probably missing few 100K due to missing double features. Still it came within range of TGM thursday and that is great. So we have SH and non SH having different Alpha patterns. 

[ZackM]

Do we have any sense of how many double feature screenings there were at Alpha?

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Do we have any sense of how many double feature screenings there were at Alpha?

I believe 1st imax show everywhere was the double feature. I am not sure if every chain had it but it was not unique to alpha for sure. May be it even added 500K. Sadly we dont get the breakups. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

Do we have any sense of how many double feature screenings there were at Alpha?

 

I didn't save off the breakdown but the total was 884 so I'd guess ~350.  I'd say ATP around $19 based on the ones in my regions

[M37]

53 minutes ago, ZackM said:

If they were listed separately from Dominion alone on Alpha’s site, then no, I did not capture them.

You know, I was going to ask that earlier this week (but felt like I was searching for reasons why Alpha was softer)

 

Also, and I don't know how widespread these are yet, but there was an IMAX Live event that may have not have registered under the main JWD show list, for Alpha and other chains as well. I know it was listed separately on Fandango at least

[M37]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I believe 1st imax show everywhere was the double feature. I am not sure if every chain had it but it was not unique to alpha for sure. May be it even added 500K. Sadly we dont get the breakups. 

No, the DF was not an IMAX event, it was standard (another opportunity to grab a premium ticket price)

[ZackM]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I didn't save off the breakdown but the total was 884 so I'd guess ~350.  I'd say ATP around $19 based on the ones in my regions

Jeesh...ok.

 

So that could have accounted for 2M+ of previews.  Would have made the comps make more sense.

[keysersoze123]

884 shows !!!! I dont think there are that many imax theaters around. @katnisscinnaplex did the double shows play outside imax as well?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

No, the DF was not an IMAX event, it was standard (another opportunity to grab a premium ticket price)

I thought I definitely saw double imax shows at Empire 25 and couple of other big theaters I was looking at anecdotally. Anyway I will defer to @katnisscinnaplex as she tracks all shows.