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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Verrows Box Office Gold

Verrows

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

July 12 2024 if the rumoured deal order is correct but would marvel studios release 2 movies in the same month just 2 weeks apart?

Right, I had heard that and forgot.

 

But yes, it seems unlikely Marvel Studios would have two movies in a 2 week span. I don't think they'd be keen on shifting much back. They've already had to do a lot of it with covid and other production issues, most recently so with Blade. My hope is that something due out in 2024 has a very smooth production and is able to be moved UP to Blade's old November spot (yes I know Dune Part II is there right now).

 

Anyway I realize this is all off.topic from tracking so I'll leave this for another thread.

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
On 11/7/2022 at 11:22 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 380 8 17 59 39
Seats Added 41,073 584 1,388 6,892 2,844
Seats Sold 22,067 14,436 10,642 10,457 8,960
           
11/7/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 439 8,221 287,578 1,240,175 23.19%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 56 258 628 1,119
           
ATP          
$16.53          
           
           
Black Panther Double Feature
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
           
11/7/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 92 97 8,962 22,354 40.09%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 5 12 25 39
           
ATP          
$17.56          

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
  Thor: Love & Thunder Dr. Strange MoM
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0        
T-0        
T-1        
T-2        
T-3 $28.4 $28.1 $23.8 $24.1
T-4 $27.7 $27.5 $23.5 $23.8
T-5 $27.3 $27.1 $23.4 $23.7
T-6 $27.0 $26.9 $23.1 $23.4
T-7 $26.9 $26.8 $22.8 $23.2
T-8 $26.8 $26.7 $22.7 $23.1
T-9 $26.6 $26.4 $22.5 $22.9
T-10 $26.4 $26.3 $22.5 $22.9
T-11 $26.4 $26.3 $22.3 $22.7
T-12 $26.6 $26.5 $22.2 $22.7
T-13 $26.7 $26.6 $22.0 $22.5
T-14 $26.9 $26.8 $21.7 $22.2
T-15 $26.7 $26.6 $21.3 $21.8
T-16 $26.8 $26.7 $21.2 $21.7
T-17 $26.9 $26.8 $21.2 $21.6
T-18 $27.2 $27.1 $21.4 $21.8

 

 

Sorry for the delay...From last night:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 396 380 8 17 59
Seats Added 41,549 41,073 584 1,388 6,892
Seats Sold 26,132 22,067 14,436 10,642 10,457
           
11/8/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 439 8,617 313,710 1,281,724 24.48%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 2 65 299 719 1,271
           
ATP          
$16.42          
           
           
Black Panther Double Feature
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
           
11/8/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 92 97 9,210 22,354 41.20%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 6 14 26 42
           
ATP          
$17.54          

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
  Thor: Love & Thunder Dr. Strange MoM
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0        
T-0        
T-1        
T-2 $28.4 $28.2 $23.8 $24.1
T-3 $28.4 $28.1 $23.8 $24.1
T-4 $27.7 $27.5 $23.5 $23.8
T-5 $27.3 $27.1 $23.4 $23.7
T-6 $27.0 $26.9 $23.1 $23.4
T-7 $26.9 $26.8 $22.8 $23.2
T-8 $26.8 $26.7 $22.7 $23.1
T-9 $26.6 $26.4 $22.5 $22.9
T-10 $26.4 $26.3 $22.5 $22.9
T-11 $26.4 $26.3 $22.3 $22.7
T-12 $26.6 $26.5 $22.2 $22.7
T-13 $26.7 $26.6 $22.0 $22.5
T-14 $26.9 $26.8 $21.7 $22.2
T-15 $26.7 $26.6 $21.3 $21.8
T-16 $26.8 $26.7 $21.2 $21.7
T-17 $26.9 $26.8 $21.2 $21.6
T-18 $27.2 $27.1 $21.4 $21.8

 

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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Posted

Haven't had a chance to browse through; is anyone following Friday sales in addition to Thursday? Seeing some very interesting trends there for a release this big with Veterans Day in play.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Black Panther 2 T-1 Jax 6 147 195 3,727 19,331 19.28%
    Phx 7 157 401 3,718 20,630 18.02%
    Ral 8 146 416 5,002 16,664 30.02%
ATP: 14.14 Total   21 450 1,012 12,447 56,625 21.98%
BP2 DF T-1 Jax 2 4 11 180 355 50.70%
  Total   2 4 11 180 355 50.70%
Glass Onion T-14 Jax 4 16 5 100 1,847 5.41%
    Phx 2 8 5 81 736 11.01%
    Ral 2 11 5 146 896 16.29%
ATP: 11.01 Total   8 35 15 327 3,479 9.40%
She Said T-8 Jax 5 11 0 5 1,042 0.48%
    Phx 3 6 1 3 352 0.85%
    Ral 5 10 0 4 598 0.67%
  Total   13 27 1 12 1,992 0.60%
The Menu T-8 Jax 4 10 4 18 966 1.86%
    Phx 5 12 2 35 1,389 2.52%
    Ral 8 20 14 50 1,495 3.34%
  Total   17 42 20 103 3,850 2.68%
The Menu (EA) T-6 Jax 1 1 0 5 81 6.17%
    Phx 3 3 3 9 239 3.77%
  Total   4 4 3 14 320 4.38%

 

Black Panther T-1 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.66x (35.15m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.124x (32.6m)

 - DS2 - .679x (24.44m)*

 - NWH - .446x (22.31m)

 - Batman - 1.694x (29.82m)

 

Glass Onion T-14 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .693x (4.36m)

 - F9 - .574x (4.07m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .959x (4.31m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .127x (2.44m)

 

The Menu T-8 comps

 - Amsterdam - 1.94x (1.07m)

 - Crawdads - .47x (941k)

 

She Said T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .04x (121k)

 - House of Gucci - .24x (312k)

 - King Richard - .333x (646k)

NGjG8Tk.png

 

Here's a quick comparison in my regional theaters using T-1 figures.  I don't have time to dig too much into it, but maybe someone can glean something here.

 

Note: Regal River City Marketplace has closed, but it hardly did any business so I'm not shocked.

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Haven't had a chance to browse through; is anyone following Friday sales in addition to Thursday? Seeing some very interesting trends there for a release this big with Veterans Day in play.

 

I am...as of a few minutes ago:

 

Friday
Theaters - 439
Showings - 9,929
Sold - 382,146
Total - 1,624,127
ATP - $15.80

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Haven't had a chance to browse through; is anyone following Friday sales in addition to Thursday? Seeing some very interesting trends there for a release this big with Veterans Day in play.

 I have been (trying) to follow Friday sales, will be posting Friday's Ontario count in a bit, for what thats worth :)

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Haven't had a chance to browse through; is anyone following Friday sales in addition to Thursday? Seeing some very interesting trends there for a release this big with Veterans Day in play.

Been taking Marcus Friday numbers, my last comp with Thor was ~61 million as of Sunday night (posted in the thread). Unfortunately I didn't take Thor Friday after that. 

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

Posted
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Posted
29 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

I am...as of a few minutes ago:

 

Friday
Theaters - 439
Showings - 9,929
Sold - 382,146
Total - 1,624,127
ATP - $15.80

 

16 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

 I have been (trying) to follow Friday sales, will be posting Friday's Ontario count in a bit, for what thats worth :)

 

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Been taking Marcus Friday numbers, my last comp with Thor was ~61 million as of Sunday night (posted in the thread). Unfortunately I didn't take Thor Friday after that. 

Obviously a big asterisk for future comps since Veterans Day is a factor here, but from what I'm seeing in samples, those Friday figures will definitely be interesting to keep track of when extrapolating the true Friday off previews. The rate of acceleration for Fri vs. Thu looks pretty impressive, relatively speaking.

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

If you look at all MCU blockbusters from Endgame onwards, 

 

Black Widow/Eternals did around 6x, Shang Chi(which was a smaller 1st movie) did about 8.4x while NWH did < 5x(I would still not call it frontloaded, it was just fully loaded over the weekend) while DS2/Thor did about 5x. I think BP would be about 6x. That cannot be called backloaded for sure. 

Eternals was 7.5x, not 6

 

That said, the 28-50 previews are clearly in a different world than the 8-13M stuff, and have been the last 3. BP doing >6x is backloaded in context.

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is a weak increase for tuesday. Wednesday for Thor was insane as it increased from 26190 to 41682. Not sure if Wakanda can match that. Tomorrow as well is a tough target. 

Tues was bad but it was also Election Day, so waiting on today to provide a correction or confirm weakness.

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cax16 Blockbuster

cax16

Posted
Posted

WF day before previews at 24 nearest theatres, 17,710 tickets sold 
 

Other comps,

 

Thor day before previews at 24 nearest theatres, 19878 tickets sold 
 

Dr strange day before previews at 24 nearest theatres , 32,257 seats sold

 

Batman day before previews at 24 nearest theatres, 15276 seats sold

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1273 4265 29.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 896 2758 32.49%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
6813 585 38904 17.51% 15 294

 

AMCs sold 3604
Cinemarks sold 1359
Regals sold 854
Harkins sold 996

 

0.858x Thor L&T T-2 (24.89M)

0.574x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (20.66M)

1.09x Batman T-2 (23.54M)

2.73x Eternals T-2 (25.97M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1356 4265 31.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 934 2758 33.87%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
7389 576 40359 18.31% 15 314

 

AMCs sold 3825
Cinemarks sold 1515
Regals sold 976
Harkins sold 1073

 

0.816x Thor L&T T-1 (23.66M)

0.577x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (20.76M)

1.05x Batman T-1 (22.78M)

2.58x Eternals T-1 (24.54M)

 

I counted 2 hours earlier than yesterday, so the daily pace will be a bit off. But even accounting for that, I think it's a pretty weak T-1.

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