The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Old Spice]

Avatar 2 early hours presale from Salt Lake Valley.

 

Tix sold so far for preview night, Dec 15th:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (non-PLF) 12

Cinemark Draper XD 31

Cinemark Farmington XD 71

Total tix sold: 114 over 28 showtimes, 22 3D and 6 standard.

 

102% of Bullet Train Final

38% of Nope "

34.4% of Black Adam "

9.3% of Wakanda "

 

Sugarhouse first 24 hours only comparison:

Currently 8.5% of Thor (134)

Currently 4.85% of MOM (247)

 

Will report back tomorrow with the final 24 hour comps.

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

What’s Strange World tracking like?

 

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

I wonder who's gonna brave enough to post their first projections

 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't see how Minions 2 is a good comp. There are almost no similarities with either genre or expected audience. TGM/JWD are the ones to go with, I think (F9 is again a different case, and the market conditions were also weird then). 

 

Well, yeah, fair enough.  Also I checked Minion 2's first day and it sold something like 68 tickets its first day, so never mind that.

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Anything around TGM and JW first day would be great imo and bodes well for +150M OW

Those two movies had different first days, though. JWD was a 42-day run and in some areas TGM absolutely obliterated JWD. Plus neither opened over 150 (and TGM had incredibly positive buzz at a level that I really don't think A2 will match). 

 

Overall I think presales starting at TGM level would be solid, though. Just not sure if that would mean 150.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Those two movies had different first days, though. JWD was a 42-day run and in some areas TGM absolutely obliterated JWD. Plus neither opened over 150 (and TGM had incredibly positive buzz at a level that I really don't think A2 will match).

JWD was close enough despite meh WOM (and i would argue this one is the better example for Avatar 2 since they're both more family friendly franchises and closer to the fantasy genre).

 

And TGM 3-day probably was a bit depressed because the monday after was a holiday

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Those two movies had different first days, though. JWD was a 42-day run and in some areas TGM absolutely obliterated JWD.

 

Sadly, this is Yet Another Film where there aren't many great comps at the very beginning.  Even among F9/JWD/TGM there are enough differences to make this a bit tough to interpret.

 

If it wasn't for 3D, I'd be tempted to rope in Dune, except that didn't have any real sort of push at the end that I expect A2 to have.

 

Really, gonna just have to see the pre-sale run its course in due time and adjust our priors on the fly, if need be.

[TwoMisfits]

You might use Spidey just to comp a recent big holiday movie that had big legs even with a big open...

 

Especially since holiday movies have the spread out presales, different than pretty much every other time of year...

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

 

 

I was born three weeks early and came out perfect, so art can theoretically be rushed. 
 

Spoiler

Not trying to rush you, just making a joke is all. Not that much of a narcissist lol.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

You might use Spidey just to comp a recent big holiday movie that had big legs even with a big open...

 

Especially since holiday movies have the spread out presales, different than pretty much every other time of year...

The problem there is that Spidey first day presales are gonna be like 10x Avatar and much more frontloaded. Comps have to be reasonably close in volume and expected sales trend.

[Grebacio]

Why don't you try with Wakanda Forever and The Batman?

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The problem there is that Spidey first day presales are gonna be like 10x Avatar and much more frontloaded. Comps have to be reasonably close in volume and expected sales trend.

 

1st day, yes...but then it should settle...maybe ignore the 1st day sales, and just trend it from 24 hours on until you get to 48 hours prior and then add back both groups 1st days...

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Why don't you try with Wakanda Forever and The Batman?

Even those are gonna be 2-4x bigger and were hyped CBMs with big fanbases behind them. TGM and JWD seem to be the comps with the least obvious issues (and likely the closest in sales volume as well).

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

1st day, yes...but then it should settle...maybe ignore the 1st day sales, and just trend it from 24 hours on until you get to 48 hours prior and then add back both groups 1st days...

That methodology seems pretty arbitrary, you'd essentially be throwing out a lot of NWH's sales (though it could actually deflate the NWH comps at first as NWH D2 was inflated by spillover from all the crashes on D1). 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

One thing for sure is MCU movies are terrible comps for Avatar sequel. This is not fan driven at all. I am also thinking it would be more weekend driven than huge previews upfront. 

 

if I have to guess I would say OW between 100-150m and great legs with audience seeing it over the holidays and beyond. I could see 5-6x legs with great WOM. Showcounts seen for MTC1/2 are way lower than Wakanda(duh). Let us see how things go. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is not fan driven at all

Wut

[Maggie]

11 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Wut

The first one had incredible legs, but the movie doesn't have that many fanatics. People are not really passionate about the characters, it's more about the visuals.  That's why people say it had no "cultural impact", it's not big in popculture. At least, that's the way i'm seeing it. It's not like Marvel. Of course people will be curios about the movie, but they will not rush out to see it first day

Edited November 21, 2022 by Maggie

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The first one had incredible legs, but the movie doesn't have that many fanatics. People are not really passionate about the characters, it's more about the visuals.  That's why people say it had no "cultural impact", it's not big in popculture. At least, that's the way i'm seeing it. It's not like Marvel. Of course people will be curios about the movie, but they will not rush out to see it first day

You don’t get the sales it has already has today without a fanbase. This notion that there are no Avatar fans is silly.

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The first one had incredible legs, but the movie doesn't have that many fanatics. People are not really passionate about the characters, it's more about the visuals.  That's why people say it had no "cultural impact", it's not big in popculture. At least, that's the way i'm seeing it. It's not like Marvel. Of course people will be curios about the movie, but they will not rush out to see it first day

Agreed, i buyed advance tickets for many MCU movies, and while i love the first Avatar (it's the movie that made me want to work with cinema actually), i won't buy tickets in advance like i did with MCU because i didn't need that to get good seats.

Edited November 21, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

You don’t get the sales it has already has today without a fanbase. This notion that there are no Avatar fans is silly.

Were today's sales THAT big? 

 

It's still the sequel to the biggest movie at the time, but it won't get the first day sales of Avengers Endgame or even Infinity war. The passion for Avatar is not that big as Marvel

Edited November 21, 2022 by Maggie

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

17 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Were today's sales THAT big? 

 

It's still the sequel to the biggest movie at the time, but it won't get the first day sales of Avengers Endgame or even Infinity war. The passion for Avatar is not that big as Marvel

Just eyeballing it, I’d say probably the 3rd biggest first day sales of the year. And obviously it’s not on the level of IW or EG, but it’s certainly on par or better than a lot of “fanbase” franchises.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Toruk Makto XXR

[M37]

2 hours ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

I wonder if Rise or Gru might be a decent comp for A2? 🧐

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 I actually think might be a good comp due to the insanely backloaded nature of it.  Was already thinking about mentioning this before you brought it up.

 

Problem here is, A2 at first glance seems to have enough initial first sales to make most family films a bad comp (as most family films don't have any real sort of fan rush) but not enough initial sales to break into the upper end Marvel/SW tier.

 

EDITED AFTER CHECKING

 

Minions 2 sold 68 tickets locally its first day, so, no not that good of a comp at all.  Not until the final couple of days at least.  Then we might be talking

 

Minions was one of the most insanely backloaded/late growth rate sales trajectories post pandemic - even more than Venom 2! Would probably comp to like a $100M Thursday 😂