The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[dudalb]

If money were actually being bet on this weekend's domestic box office,the bets would be called off with the biggest population centers about to be his by a once in a century freezing cold weather. People arejust not going to want to go out except if absolutly necessary.

[Tinalera]

A huge shoutout to those who are doing counts right now and through xmas/New Year-it is really appreciated and noticed! 

 

Thank you so very much  

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	47	5433	0.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

 

Comp

0.644x of The Conjuring 3 T-15 (6.31M)

0.171x of Scream T-15 (598K)

0.164x of Nope T-15 (1.05M)

0.118x of Halloween Ends T-15 (639K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	55	5433	1.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.696x of The Conjuring 3 T-14 (6.83M)

0.194x of Scream T-14 (678K)

0.173x of Nope T-14 (1.11M)

0.117x of Halloween Ends T-14 (631K)

[charlie Jatinder]

lil late

 

Harkins Previews

 

I wanna Dance - 1371/15553 (99 showings) $16,036

Babylon - 867/10650 (76 showings) $10,183

 

Meh walkups for I wanna Dance. Probably $900K. Looked like $1.5M few days back, yday morning looked like $1M+ at least, ended up falling short of that. Weekend could be just $5-7M.

 

Babylon probably $650K. Weekend can be $5M range.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/16/2022 at 9:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,567	193,730		110,067		83,663	4,734	76,883
Violent Night	3,048	40,094	-25.94%	40,028	161.12	66	0	0
Black Panther 2	2,903	35,812	-36.85%	35,542	198.10	270	0	201
Strange World	2,440	30,633	-21.36%	30,519	97.08	114	0	66
The Menu	1,612	18,063	-31.15%	18,057	105.51	6	0	0
Devotion	1,604	12,432	-48.74%	12,415	83.61	17	0	0
The Fabelmans	868	9,803	0.68%	9,803	120.39	0	0	0
Black Adam	1,062	8,833	-46.95%	8,833	79.76	0	0	0
Spirited	583	5,399	-15.63%	5,383		16	0	0
Spoiler Alert	712	5,192	-40.62%	5,192	70.03	0	0	0
Empire of Light	399	5,079		5,079		0	0	0
Ticket to Paradise	456	3,638	-65.36%	3,638	59.21	0	0	0
I Heard the Bells	439	3,555	-68.23%	3,547	67.25	8	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 12/16 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Avatar 2 - 193,730 (3,567 TC) (83,663 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 182,709 (3,834) (16,305 PLF)

 - JW3 - 181,854 (3,848) (35,828 PLF)

 - Thor 4 - 194,969 (3,540) (40,058 PLF)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

 

Puss in Boots (3-day) - 30,437 (2,314 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 29,347 (2,797)

 - Paws of Fury - 31,294 (2,060)

 - Strange World - 31,574 (1,946)

Puss in Boots (5-day) - 59,985 (2,877)

 - Sing 2 - 57,601 (2,797)

 - Strange World - 64,162 (2,768)

I Wanna Dance With Somebody - 28,953 (2,345 TC)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950)

Babylon - 24,509 (2,289 TC)

 - Amsterdam - 25,658 (1,878)

 - Bros - 25,620 (2,161)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 3,980 (1,646 TC)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,528	99,541	-38.07%	49,827	692.20	49,714	3,486	44,744
Puss in Boots 3-Day	3,434	71,525		68,116		3,409	0	3,297
Puss in Boots 5-Day	3,434	117,093		111,466		5,627	0	5,433
I Wanna Dance	3,156	49,709		49,643		66	0	0
Babylon	3,029	44,741		44,681		60	0	0
Violent Night	2,293	24,258	-39.50%	24,237	126.07	21	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,926	12,663	-64.64%	12,463	149.30	200	0	178
The Whale	547	7,602		7,588		14	0	0
The Fabelmans	1,021	7,356	-24.96%	7,344	75.87	12	0	0
Strange World	1,065	6,700	-78.13%	6,674	72.15	26	0	12
Cirkus	496	4,297		4,297		0	0	0
The Menu	672	3,832	-78.79%	3,832	90.12	0	0	0
18 Pages	336	2,376		2,376		0	0	0
Empire of Light	314	1,497	-70.53%	1,497	44.00	0	0	0
Devotion	318	1,370	-88.98%	1,370	62.76	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 12/23 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Puss in Boots (3-day) - 71,525 (3,434 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 55,966 (3,331)

 - The Bad Guys - 67,681 (3,297)

 - Strange World - 71,743 (3,406)

Puss in Boots (5-day) - 117,093 (3,434)

 - Sing 2 - 91,663 (3,331)

 - Strange World - 105,995 (3,347)

I Wanna Dance With Somebody - 49,709 (3,156 TC)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)

 - Devotion - 49,384 (2,483)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846)

Babylon - 44,741 (3,029 TC)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 - The Menu - 45,234 (2,830)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 4,412 (1,837 TC)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

A Man Called Otto - 1,066 (346 TC)

 - I Heard the Bells - 1,097 (976)

 - The Case for Heaven - 1,013 (954)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/22/2022 at 8:17 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-0	Jax	5	20	13	49	1,823	2.69%
		Phx	7	25	22	118	2,442	4.83%
		Ral	8	22	37	118	1,995	5.91%
	Total		20	67	72	285	6,260	4.55%
I Wanna Dance	T-0	Jax	5	25	41	126	2,167	5.81%
		Phx	7	28	11	111	2,960	3.75%
		Ral	9	31	35	161	3,261	4.94%
	Total		20	84	87	398	8,388	4.74%
M3GAN	T-14	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	2	11	2,039	0.54%
		Ral	7	14	-1	12	1,817	0.66%
	Total		17	47	1	30	5,614	0.53%

 

I Wanna Dance T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.1m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.184x (1.59m)

 - Respect - 2.65x (1.72m)

 - House of Gucci - .877x (1.14m)

 - King Richard - .637x (1.23m)

 

Looking like ~1.2m at this point.   One more update to go though.

 

Babylon T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .247x (791k)

 - Bullet Train - .273x (915k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.647x (906k)

 - Death on the Nile - .843x (906k)

 - Lost City - .415x (1.04m)

 

Should be around 900k if these stand.

 

M3GAN T-14 comps

 - Nope - .093x (594k)

 - Black Phone - .411x (1.07m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M3GAN	T-13	Jax	5	20	1	8	1,758	0.46%
		Phx	5	13	0	11	2,039	0.54%
		Ral	7	14	2	14	1,817	0.77%
	Total		17	47	3	33	5,614	0.59%

 

M3GAN T-13 comps

 - Nope - .094x (603k)

 - Black Phone - .418x (1.09m)

 - Halloween Ends - .134x (721k)

 - Northman - .589x (796k)

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 12/23/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
12/30/2022	A Man Called Otto (LA / NY Platform)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023	M3GAN	$20,000,000 – $35,000,000		$49,000,000 – $77,000,000		Universal Pictures
1/6/2023	A Man Called Otto (Limited)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023	Women Talking (Wide)					United Artists Releasing
1/13/2023	The Devil Conspiracy					Third Day Productions
1/13/2023	House Party	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$10,000,000 – $25,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
1/13/2023	A Man Called Otto (Wide Expansion)	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$30,000,000 – $60,000,000		Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/13/2023	Plane	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000		$15,000,000 – $35,000,000		Lionsgate
1/20/2023	Missing	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$10,000,000 – $24,000,000		Sony / Screen Gems
1/20/2023	The Son					Sony Pictures Classics
1/20/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film					Crunchyroll / Sony

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Missing - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

M3GAN T-15: 40.07%, 5.92

Women Talking T-15: 11.45%, 4.37

House Party T-22: 31.45%, 5.58

Plane T-22: 20.92%, 5.37

Jesus Revolution T-62: 15.87%, 4.73

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-92: 51.81%, 6.55

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse T-162: 45.22%, 6.41

 

Babylon T-1: 30.6% Awareness, 4.94 Interest

Final Awareness: 42% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Original - High Interest: 0% chance of 100M

 

I Wanna Dance with Somebody T-1: 39.06% Awareness, 5.44 Interest

Final Awareness: 42% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 43% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 73% chance of 5M, 36% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 57% chance of 5M, 29% chance of 10M

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-57: 36.42% Awareness, 5.8 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 46% chance of 70M, 32% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 56% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 60M, 75% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 90M

[Eric Prime]

Wanted to mention btw that Regal's doing another Monday Mystery Movie thing on January 9. So...what's coming out on Apple soon? Wikipedia says a Julianne Moore movie drops in February. Could also be the Taron Egerton Tetris movie in March.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

5 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

Wanted to mention btw that Regal's doing another Monday Mystery Movie thing on January 9. So...what's coming out on Apple soon? Wikipedia says a Julianne Moore movie drops in February. Could also be the Taron Egerton Tetris movie in March.

FWIW, Regal wants people to think they’ll work with other studios.

 

We'll see if that's the truth. They could just mean Amazon, for all we know...

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

Wanted to mention btw that Regal's doing another Monday Mystery Movie thing on January 9. So...what's coming out on Apple soon? Wikipedia says a Julianne Moore movie drops in February. Could also be the Taron Egerton Tetris movie in March.

Could be one of the handful of January releases (House Party, Planes, Missing) that will be arriving around that time and could probably use some WOM exposure.

[WrathOfHan]

3 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

FWIW, Regal wants people to think they’ll work with other studios.

 

We'll see if that's the truth. They could just mean Amazon, for all we know...

 

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Could be one of the handful of January releases (House Party, Planes, Missing) that will be arriving around that time and could probably use some WOM exposure.

It's a PG-13 film so Plane and House Party are out of the running. Otto or Missing make sense; 80 for Brady could be it too but that's a little further out than the Sony movies.

Edited December 24, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[Eric Prime]

On 12/22/2022 at 11:39 PM, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	55	5433	1.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.696x of The Conjuring 3 T-14 (6.83M)

0.194x of Scream T-14 (678K)

0.173x of Nope T-14 (1.11M)

0.117x of Halloween Ends T-14 (631K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	59	5433	1.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.702x of The Conjuring 3 T-13 (6.89M)

0.208x of Halloween Kills T-13 (1.01M)

0.199x of Scream T-13 (695K)

0.113x of Halloween Ends T-13 (610K)

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

It's a PG-13 film so Plane and House Party are out of the running. Otto or Missing make sense; 80 for Brady could be it too but that's a little further out than the Sony movies.

Imagine if the Monday Mystery Movie is 80 for Brady, everyone in Atlanta would boo and walk out, demanding refunds. I'd kind of like to see the bedlam... Seriously, though, it seems like a good idea for a late breaking awards hopeful to gain buzz.

 

If the Mystery Movie is something that goes on to get a typical theatrical release, would the box office from the Monday be counted like a sneak preview (under another title already in theaters) or an early access screening?

[filmlover]

Actually hoping Missing is good since Searching was one of the more overlooked movies of its year.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Regal saying the Mystery Movie is definitely not from a streamer:

 

 

Missing has a 1:51 runtime. So far, the mystery movies have had a listed runtime longer than the actual movie's length.

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	59	5433	1.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.702x of The Conjuring 3 T-13 (6.89M)

0.208x of Halloween Kills T-13 (1.01M)

0.199x of Scream T-13 (695K)

0.113x of Halloween Ends T-13 (610K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	63	5433	1.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.618x of The Conjuring 3 T-12 (6.06M)

0.194x of Halloween Kills T-12 (943K)

0.199x of Scream T-12 (695K)

0.104x of Halloween Ends T-12 (564K)

[filmlover]

Knock at the Cabin tickets are now live. Merry Christmas from M. Night!

[interiorgatordecorator]

whats the catch?

[Eric Prime]

On 12/24/2022 at 11:15 PM, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	63	5433	1.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.618x of The Conjuring 3 T-12 (6.06M)

0.194x of Halloween Kills T-12 (943K)

0.199x of Scream T-12 (695K)

0.104x of Halloween Ends T-12 (564K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	67	5433	1.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.485x of The Conjuring 3 T-11 (4.76M)

0.178x of Halloween Kills T-11 (864K)

0.200x of Scream T-11 (702K)

0.099x of Halloween Ends T-11 (534K)