The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

...excuse me?

Base on the subtitle I’m thinking it’s about some kind of bond that’s red. Maybe blood as a metaphor for violence?

[Eric S'ennui]

9 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Base on the subtitle I’m thinking it’s about some kind of bond that’s red. Maybe blood as a metaphor for violence?

I mean...I get that part.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

I mean...I get that part.

Well aside from that it’s a movie from the famous That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime series with a pithy title thst both rolls off the tongue nicely and tells you exactly what is what in the show.   
 

18 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Next bring on a "Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon?" movie. That one is the ultimate SUS anime.

Neither of these are even top 2 sus among Isekai genre. Rising of the Sheild Hero is SUS but No Game, No Life is 🚨S🚨U🚨S🚨

Edited December 30, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[Eric S'ennui]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-m3gan-and-a-man-called-otto-will-have-to-prop-up-a-light-january-before-2023-truly-ramps-up/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low-End Range	Domestic Total Low-End Range	Distributor
12/30/2022	A Man Called Otto (LA / NY Platform)			Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023	M3GAN	$20,000,000+	$49,000,000+	Universal Pictures
1/6/2023	A Man Called Otto (Limited)			Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023	Women Talking (Wide)			United Artists Releasing
1/13/2023	The Devil Conspiracy			Third Day Productions
1/13/2023	House Party	$4,000,000+	$10,000,000+	Warner Bros. Pictures
1/13/2023	A Man Called Otto (Wide Expansion)	$9,000,000+	$30,000,000+	Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/13/2023	Plane	$6,000,000+	$15,000,000+	Lionsgate
1/20/2023	Missing	$4,000,000+	$10,000,000+	Sony / Screen Gems

[GOGODanca]

Must be expecting some crazy ramp up in presales cause looking at current comps this movie would need like a 30x IM to pull off a 20m OW

[misterpepp]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:57 PM, Eric in Boots said:

Do you know when House Party and Plane will be on sale? Feels like they've been stuck on placeholder times forever at the Regals I track.

House Party Jan 4

Plane Jan 5

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Women Talking T-8: 12.03% Awareness, 4.41 Interest

Plane T-15: 22.17%, 5.52

Missing T-22: 19.56%, 5.66

When You Finish Saving the World T-22: 7.64%, 5.0

Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-92: 28.98%, 5.04

Evil Dead Rise T-113: 27.84%, 5.7

The Little Mermaid T-148: 55.17%, 6.22

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-361: 53.26%, 6.35

 

M3GAN T-8: 46.31% Awareness, 6.05 Interest

Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M and 30M, 82% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 40M

[M37]

1 hour ago, Eric in Boots said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-m3gan-and-a-man-called-otto-will-have-to-prop-up-a-light-january-before-2023-truly-ramps-up/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low-End Range	Domestic Total Low-End Range	Distributor
12/30/2022	A Man Called Otto (LA / NY Platform)			Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023	M3GAN	$20,000,000+	$49,000,000+	Universal Pictures
1/6/2023	A Man Called Otto (Limited)			Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023	Women Talking (Wide)			United Artists Releasing
1/13/2023	The Devil Conspiracy			Third Day Productions
1/13/2023	House Party	$4,000,000+	$10,000,000+	Warner Bros. Pictures
1/13/2023	A Man Called Otto (Wide Expansion)	$9,000,000+	$30,000,000+	Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/13/2023	Plane	$6,000,000+	$15,000,000+	Lionsgate
1/20/2023	Missing	$4,000,000+	$10,000,000+	Sony / Screen Gems

I know it’s still mostly COVID production delay related, but this one decent horror movie and a bunch of crap Januaries are depressing. And without the awards movies pulling in decent numbers to at least keep the floor higher 

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, Eric in Boots said:

Quorum Updates

Women Talking T-8: 12.03% Awareness, 4.41 Interest

Plane T-15: 22.17%, 5.52

Missing T-22: 19.56%, 5.66

When You Finish Saving the World T-22: 7.64%, 5.0

Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-92: 28.98%, 5.04

Evil Dead Rise T-113: 27.84%, 5.7

The Little Mermaid T-148: 55.17%, 6.22

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-361: 53.26%, 6.35

 

M3GAN T-8: 46.31% Awareness, 6.05 Interest

Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M and 30M, 82% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 40M

 

Looks like a real test for Quorum with M3GAN. Pre sales are not showing the level that the Quorum would indicate. So if walk ups and a late push really take off then that will fall in line. If not it will be a pretty big miss with that site. It will be interesting to see.

[Boxofficerules]

What is Quroum?

[Flamengo81]

8 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Yeah I'm with you there. I know the trailer went viral and all, but for me that is kinda all we have. I haven't seen much to justify a big opening though I would love to be wrong.

 

For the record, I think Knock at the Cabin is where things could get really interesting as for early 2023 thrillers, but then again, I could be wrong.

I just watched the trailer and WTF? lol

Not gonna lie, if this is looking to be an actual horror movie that takes itself seriously then it looks like straight garbage IMO. If this is more like a campy movie then it has some potential, I laughed a couple of times in the trailer.

Not sure how this will perform, I think horror audience will dislike it, but maybe it will attract other people?

Edit: I saw the 2nd trailer first. The 1st trailer is actually a lot better honestly, but my point stands.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Flamengo81

[misterpepp]

As I mentioned before, Missing tickets did go on sale today. However, unless something changes closer to release, it is looking more like a ~1-1.5k screen count release rather than 2k+, 3k+, etc. Worth keeping in mind for anyone who decides to track it.

Edited December 30, 2022 by datpepper

[Tinalera]

Talking to peers about M3GAN and just what Im reading casually on discussion stuff-seems people don't know how to take the movie. Like is it a horror film? A parody? Something else? Wondering if a lot of people are just waiting to see word of mouth so they can figure out what type of film this is. I can see this movie becoming one of those films that doesn't really translate well in theatres, but definitely gets its own niche/Cult following (and I imagine comicons in the summer there will be massive cosplays of M3GAN)

[Eric S'ennui]

3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

What is Quroum?

The Quorum is a website that publishes pre-release tracking data for upcoming releases. How aware people are of a movie, how interested people are, whether they would see it at home or in theaters, you get the point. It's a great resource that I think is very beneficial in showing, at the very least, the potential a movie is going to make. Not a perfect metric for exact numbers, but still indicative of a film's opening weekend range.

 

Website link is right here: https://thequorum.com/

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Talking to peers about M3GAN and just what Im reading casually on discussion stuff-seems people don't know how to take the movie. Like is it a horror film? A parody? Something else? Wondering if a lot of people are just waiting to see word of mouth so they can figure out what type of film this is. I can see this movie becoming one of those films that doesn't really translate well in theatres, but definitely gets its own niche/Cult following (and I imagine comicons in the summer there will be massive cosplays of M3GAN)

The first trailer definitely sold it as a "beware of relying on technology" thriller with tongue sort of in cheek but then the second one really played up the dance scene that went viral and other campy elements and the marketing might have become too self-conscious for its own good. Movies that have that sort of identity crisis usually end up on the low end of expectations but let's see what the reviews are like (sub-30% and then yeah, an unremarkable performance it will be).

Edited December 31, 2022 by filmlover

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	86	6237	1.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

0.246x of The Conjuring 3 T-7 (2.41M)

0.140x Halloween Kills T-7 (679K)

0.171x of Scream T-7 (598K)

0.100x of Halloween Ends T-7 (542K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	103	6237	1.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

0.246x of The Conjuring 3 T-6 (2.42M)

0.151x of Halloween Kills T-6 (735K)

0.188x of Scream T-6 (659K)

0.108x of Halloween Ends T-6 (585K)

[Eric S'ennui]

On 12/30/2022 at 11:07 PM, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	103	6237	1.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

0.246x of The Conjuring 3 T-6 (2.42M)

0.151x of Halloween Kills T-6 (735K)

0.188x of Scream T-6 (659K)

0.108x of Halloween Ends T-6 (585K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	111	6237	1.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.209x of The Conjuring 3 T-5 (2.05M)

0.145x of Halloween Kills T-5 (702K)

0.182x of Scream T-5 (637K)

0.107x of Halloween Ends T-5 (580K)

[Boxofficerules]

How is M3Gan looking?

[Ronin46]

5 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

How is M3Gan looking?

 

Eric has provided daily tracking for it for weeks now. Its all contained in this thread. Eric has also updated quorum anytime there are updates and explained it in various posts also contained in this thread (your previous question, also google is your friend......)

 

Many thanks to Erics hard work. 

 

 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Do you guys are going to track Knock at the Cabin? Need some M. Night in my life