The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

To be fair, it is dropping tickets on the same day that another CBM is opening. There's a lot of crossover between the MCU and DC audience and it probably got lost in the shuffle today. 

I had thought of that.  At the same time I've sometimes noticed something of a bump for pre-sales for films when there are other high profile films debuting.  My logic is this:

 

The percentage of people who will buy pre-sale tickets will be down, perhaps way down.

The overall number of people thinking about buying tickets at all will be way up.

 

Or, in simpler terms, I really do think there's a group of people who think, "Well, I'm already here getting tickets for Movie X, might as well get tickets for Movie Y at the same time."  Basically the Halo Effect in action, especially when it's a similar genre.

 

But, sure, can't discount that.  And it might show up more on Fri or Sat than today.  Also can't discount it being four weeks out as opposed to three or so weeks out.

 

Still, not exactly great omens here.

 

(as of about 15 minutes ago, Shazam 2 had sold 92 tickets region-wide, compared to a first day total of 426 tickets for Black Adam  — now to be sure, still plenty of time left in the day, but even if SFOTG doubles its totals, it'll still be under half of BA's first day)

[Dragoncaine]

The buzz just simply isn't there for Shazam 2. I adored the first movie, but the trailers for this one have been so uninspired. I'll see it opening weekend, but I already know I won't need to preorder tickets to get a good seat.

 

How crazy is it to stake my claim that Scream VI will open higher than Shazam 2?

Edited February 17, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[Cooper Legion]

Oh I definitely haven’t been expecting Shazam to meet your tracking bar @Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

How crazy is it to stake my claim that Scream VI will open higher than Shazam 2?

Definitely where my head’s at right now

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Oh I definitely haven’t been expecting Shazam to meet your tracking bar @Porthos

 

To be fair, I wasn't really expecting it, either.  But as I looked over both Black Adam and OG Shazam, I could see a case, if an outlier of a case.  At the same time, I was also curious to see just how much the Gunn Announcement might be taking a hatchet to the upcoming DCEU slate.

 

...

 

Quite a bit, actually.

 

I suppose it really was Black Adam pulling in 7m+ recently which was the tie-breaker.  And I wasn't sure how much of that was  due to The Rock + rumors surrounding a Superman Cameo as in isolation a Shazam film ought to do more than a Black Adam film, especially since the first was well received (as near as I can tell)

 

Do reserve the right to pull the ripcord, mind.

[charlie Jatinder]

27 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

To be fair, it is dropping tickets on the same day that another CBM is opening. There's a lot of crossover between the MCU and DC audience and it probably got lost in the shuffle today. 

why do WB take the worst decision always.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I had thought of that.  At the same time I've sometimes noticed something of a bump for pre-sales for films when there are other high profile films debuting.  My logic is this:

 

The percentage of people who will buy pre-sale tickets will be down, perhaps way down.

The overall number of people thinking about buying tickets at all will be way up.

 

Or, in simpler terms, I really do think there's a group of people who think, "Well, I'm already here getting tickets for Movie X, might as well get tickets for Movie Y at the same time."  Basically the Halo Effect in action, especially when it's a similar genre.

 

But, sure, can't discount that.  And it might show up more on Fri or Sat than today.  Also can't discount it being four weeks out as opposed to three or so weeks out.

 

Still, not exactly great omens here.

 

(as of about 15 minutes ago, Shazam 2 had sold 92 tickets region-wide, compared to a first day total of 426 tickets for Black Adam  — now to be sure, still plenty of time left in the day, but even if SFOTG doubles its totals, it'll still be under half of BA's first day)

I was/am of opinion that on FRI and SAT, people are already buying tickets of current movie, so their disposable money to buy next week or two weeks out movie tix is gone, that's why we see drop on SAT.

[TheFlatLannister]

24 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

The buzz just simply isn't there for Shazam 2. I adored the first movie, but the trailers for this one have been so uninspired. I'll see it opening weekend, but I already know I won't need to preorder tickets to get a good seat.

 

How crazy is it to stake my claim that Scream VI will open higher than Shazam 2?

I feel like Shazam has gotten lost in the buzz surrounding GOTG3, Antman and The Flash

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

(as of about 15 minutes ago, Shazam 2 had sold 92 tickets region-wide, compared to a first day total of 426 tickets for Black Adam  — now to be sure, still plenty of time left in the day, but even if SFOTG doubles its totals, it'll still be under half of BA's first day)

That is not a shocker. I expect Shazam 2 to open lower than BA irrespective of reception. Its going to pull in a suicide squad on a smaller scale. I am thinking 40/100 run even if its well received. The DCU soft reboot is not going to help and it does not have any character who is a huge sell. They made a mistake in not amping up the movie in adding another DC character. it could have benefited with Cavill playing IM role in Spider-man homecoming. 

[Dragoncaine]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I feel like Shazam has gotten lost in the buzz surrounding GOTG3, Antman and The Flash

For sure. My predictions for DC this year are that The Flash is a smash hit, Aquaman 2 takes a sizable hit from the original but still pulls in great numbers ($850m), and Blue Beetle effectively plays as the OG Shazam of this year (critical darling and commercially respectable due to its smaller budget -- $325-425m), making Shazam 2 the only out-and-out loser (even with presumably decent reviews).

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

315k seems like it would be enough to get a rounded 18. Unless you're assuming a big overindex in MTC1.

 

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

315K is what I had expected. That will be good for $19M I guess.

I definitely expect MTC1 to over index. Dont forget Avg ticket price is also going down today big time as most tickets sold are regular digital shows. Almost all other chains barring drafthouse look lower.

 

FYI I think it might miss 315K as well. it is not looking like not even doing 4x of yesterdays PS. Lower multi than Thor or Wakanda. Lower total ticket sales today than even what Black Widow did with blocked seats !!!

[MovieMan89]

With Ant Man’s imminent floppage (lol at the people who ripped me to shreds a few weeks ago for saying it was going to underperform and prob do between 1 and 2) and Shazam 2 being doomed from the start, things are looking great for Mario to be a massive breakout come April. It will have been 4 months at that point since any movie will have made much of a dent (though JW4 should do good if it’s liked, but entirely different audience). 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

With Ant Man’s imminent floppage (lol at the people who ripped me to shreds a few weeks ago for saying it was going to underperform and prob do between 1 and 2) 

You said that and it isn't happening so...seems like people were right. 

[Eric Prime]

The big issue that Shazam faces is the same issue Dark Phoenix was in a couple years ago. It was greenlit and produced before a huge franchise/corporate restructuring, and it now exists as a weird thing that doesn't build up to anything. So that means there's no investment for the fans, who are all preoccupied with the new Gunnverse stuff that's starting with The Flash, and by proxy the normies don't care either.

 

...still gonna track it tho lol

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is not a shocker. I expect Shazam 2 to open lower than BA irrespective of reception. Its going to pull in a suicide squad on a smaller scale. I am thinking 40/100 run even if its well received. The DCU soft reboot is not going to help and it does not have any character who is a huge sell. They made a mistake in not amping up the movie in adding another DC character. it could have benefited with Cavill playing IM role in Spider-man homecoming. 

 

Yeah. depending on what Philly comes in at I might just track this on the down lo and provide occasional Quick and Dirty updates here on occasion.

 

The thing is, I was sorta kinda (hoping?) looking for at least a 6m preview target.  Even a 50% hit in admissions from a combined 9.2m preview + sneak should get close to that thanks to ATP price hikes since 2019.

 

9.2m/$9.16 = 1.004m admissions

1.0004 admissions x.5 x $11.2 = $5.62m

 

And "only" a 40% hit in admissions would be about 6.75m, which was close enough for me to at least take an initial look.

 

Of course, those sneaks were perhps putting a massive thumb on the scale.  Perhaps too much of a thumb as I never really know how to factor those in when deciding future comps/tracks.

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

You said that and it isn't happening so...seems like people were right. 

 

 

while it probably won't flop there is strong chance of it not passing Ant-Man 2 and maybe not even passing 600m worldwide which pretty much no one is predicting

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

 

while it probably won't flop there is strong chance of it not passing Ant-Man 2 and maybe not even passing 600m worldwide which pretty much no one is predicting

The comment in question was about OW. 

[John Marston]

Shazam  was liked but people weren't blown away by it. The sequel is coming out four years later with the character not appearing in anything in between. It was always going to have a lukewarm performance no matter what

Edited February 17, 2023 by John Marston

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

The comment in question was about OW. 

Oh lmaooo, I thought it was about DOM total which would be crazy but not CRAZY

[YM!]

24 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

For sure. My predictions for DC this year are that The Flash is a smash hit, Aquaman 2 takes a sizable hit from the original but still pulls in great numbers ($850m), and Blue Beetle effectively plays as the OG Shazam of this year (critical darling and commercially respectable due to its smaller budget -- $325-425m), making Shazam 2 the only out-and-out loser (even with presumably decent reviews).

TBH if The Flash breaks out and is well received, I think Blue Beetle could do 200m domestic and surprise as it’s be the start of a new DCU.