The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Morieris]

Is anyone else's theater, for some reason, playing Branagh's Murder on the Orient Express for one night only on Sunday?

[froztking]

9 minutes ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Quorum Updates

Champions T-22: 17.63% Awareness, 5.23 Interest

Moving On T-29: 23.04%, 5.24

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-29: 48.11%, 5.66

A Good Person T-43: 18.53%, 5.29

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-50: 54.13%, 6.34

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-78: 53.69%, 6.45

Kandahar T-99: 12.39%, 5.0

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-1: 54.66% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 60M, 9% chance of 90M

Final Interest: 50% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 90M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 60M

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-36: 56.95% Awareness, 6.69 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 91% chance of 70M, 73% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M

 

Chevalier T-64: 14.08% Awareness, 4.65 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 35% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 5M, 28% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 58% chance of 5M, 25% chance of 10M

i wish they do a good level of promotions for chevalier  ! maybe a trailer during academy awards will be good !

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Hmm...dark magic gets away with it this time. 

 

Yeah, at the edge of the call, but still acceptable in my book. 👍

 

(still this is why I was holding back on congrats until the number actually came in)

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Yeah, at the edge of the call, but still acceptable in my book. 👍

 

(still this is why I was holding back on congrats until the number actually came in)

At least it confirmed it played like other MCU movies rather than Bats :-)

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

At least it confirmed it played like other MCU movies rather than Bats Eternals. 🙂

 

Something something fixed post something something

Edited February 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-1 Friday(270 showings): 5548(+934)/71285

0.623x Thor L&T T-1 (25.27M)

0.394x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (21.54M)

1.43x Eternals T-1 (30.53M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-0 Friday(270 showings): 7181(+1633)/71285

0.619x Thor L&T T-0 (25.11M)

0.411x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (22.50M)

1.37x Eternals T-0 (29.15M)

 

Data is from this morning

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-1 Friday(652 showings): 21113(+2656)/78939 ATP: $15.29

0.612x Black Panther WF T-1 (34.46M)

0.849x Thor L&T T-1 (34.41M)

0.648x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (35.45M)

2.02x Eternals T-1 (43.16M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-0 Friday(629 showings): 25274(+4161)/75953 ATP: $15.19

0.652x Black Panther WF T-0 (36.70M)

0.851x Thor L&T T-0 (34.50M)

0.679x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (37.18M)

1.95x Eternals T-0 (41.67M)

 

Data is also from this morning. Missed some showings though

Edited February 17, 2023 by Inceptionzq

[Porthos]

On 2/16/2023 at 12:22 AM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7171	7549	378	5.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-22  Comp

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	151.20		34	250		0/73	11015/11265	2.22%		3951	9.57%		9.45m
Nope	162.93		16	232		0/84	13472/13704	1.69%		3822	9.89%		10.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:          76/2624  [2.90% sold]
Matinee:        37/687  [5.39% | 9.79% of all tickets sold]
3D:            144/2458  [5.86% | 38.10% of all tickets sold]

 

All the AM3/Shazam 2 talk last night made me forget to post this last night. IS data taken from last night at the same time as I ususally take it, so no worries there.  But might as well post it now for record keeping:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7334	7735	401	5.18%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	186
Total Seats Sold Today	23

 

T-21  Comp

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	134.11		49	299		0/73	10966/11265	2.65%		3951	10.15%		8.38m
Nope	165.02		11	243		0/84	13461/13704	1.77%		3822	10.49%		10.56m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:         81/2624  [3.09% sold]
Matinee:       37/687  [5.39% | 9.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:            159/2551  [6.23% | 39.65% of all tickets sold]

 

(again this is all Thursday data, not early Fri)

[Alex SciChannel]

Megaplex or Draft house? Which one is over/under indexing?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Megaplex or Draft house? Which one is over/under indexing?

Both. Megaplex has been underindexing and Drafthouse overindexing. 

[Inceptionzq]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Megaplex or Draft house? Which one is over/under indexing?

Megaplex is under-indexing, Drafthouse over-indexing

[Tinalera]

Interesting....

 

https://www.cbr.com/the-marvels-release-date-late-2023/

 

Wonder if this part of Disney's idea of trying to spread out the films more-but going from a summer blockbuster window to Early Nov now. 

[ZackM]

Ugh...So Alpha over indexed by quite a bit. Easily the worst of the MCU movies I've tracked, though not anywhere close to The Batman.

[Landon1195]

Predictions for GOTG Vol. 3?

[Alex SciChannel]

44 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

Predictions for GOTG Vol. 3?

$165M OW 

$405M Domestic Final (47.6% of global)

$395M International (without China)

$50M China

$850M Global total

[froztking]

B cinema score for ant man 3 ! disaster 2nd week incoming for ant man

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man 3 MTC2 previews final - 235371/803067 3245994.75 5715 shows

 

I would say 3.5m finish as it started earlier and few small untracked locations at MTC2. Walkups were weak even at MTC2 where traditional its better relative to MTC1 even for big movies. I think Disney will report 18mish range. 

now this is well higher than what I had put for my $18.5M, and still DIS went with $17.5M. make no sense unless MTC 3 is very low. Waiting for actuals tonight.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

now this is well higher than what I had put for my $18.5M, and still DIS went with $17.5M. make no sense unless MTC 3 is very low. Waiting for actuals tonight.

the only explanation is @Porthos doing it dirty. gotta lobby Porthos to give higher numbers.

[Eric Prime]

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	300	12178	2.46%

 

Comp - T-13

0.382x of F9 (2.71M)

0.513x of No Time to Die (3.23M)

0.651x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.93M)

0.606x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (3.64M)

0.901x of Nope (5.77M)

0.428x of Black Adam (3.25M)

0.153x of Avatar 2 (2.61M)

 

Didn't really know what to throw in here for comps, so it's kind of a hodgepodge of older franchise/nostalgia plays, and some movies that skewed more towards Black audiences like F9 and Black Adam and Nope (wanted to do Wakanda Forever, and it said like 1.15M and like...nah, that ain't it lol).

 

I will say it's interesting to see 7PM previews like in the good ol' days. Nice for me in terms of tracking it, and I'm assuming this leads to a bigger weekend IM than what we usually get. (BTW, I know there's some Early Access shows, but I don't think they're super widespread or anything)

[Eric Prime]

On 2/17/2023 at 12:45 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	529	8200	6.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 43

 

Comp - T-21

2.290x of Scream (8.01M)

2.177x of Nope (13.93M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	554	8200	6.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp - T-20

2.328x of Scream (8.15M)

2.225x of Nope (14.24M)