The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

5 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

yeah but their social reactions are like 1-2 week earlier than embargo

in gotg3 case, it appears the premiere isn't until the 27th so its only gonna be 1 week out

[TheFlatLannister]

3 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

D&D isn't the best comparison.

I don't have any good comps for it

 

I guess I could use John Wick and Scream because of R rating, but those were pretty fan heavy 

 

Previews: 

John Wick 4 - (0.170x) $1.5M

Scream 6 - (0.458x) $2.5M 

 

So $1.5M-$2.5M probably closer to $2.5M

[kayumanggi]

It has begun.

 

44 markets Wednesday

70 markets Friday

 

7.95M Asia Pacific including sneaks

 

CHINA, 4.95M

▪︎ number 3 in the market after Suzume and Hachiko

▪︎ biggest OD for Hollywood animation since the pandemic

▪︎ second-biggest OD for a studio title in 2023

▪︎ above MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU (+42%) and THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS (+43%), both Friday openers

▪︎ in line with ALADDIN and INCREDIBLES II

▪︎ 9.4 score on Maoyan, the best for a Hollywood animation in the last five years

▪︎ Maoyan currently predicts a 20M finish
 

AUSTRALIA, 1.1M

▪︎ 62% of the total market

▪︎ first day gross is more than 5× second-placed JOHN WICK IV

▪︎ biggest OD of the year

▪︎ best Illumination OD ever

▪︎ top animated April start of all time

▪︎ above the standard OD of FROZEN II, INCREDIBLES II, FINDING DORY, THE JUNGLE BOOK, ALADDIN, TOY STORY IV, and more than double MINIONS

 

HONG KONG, 700K

▪︎ biggest OD of 2023

▪︎ biggest OD for any Universal animation

▪︎ biggest April animation OD ever

▪︎ in line with the opening Thursday of MINIONS

▪︎ above the opening Thursdays of INCREDIBLES II, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, and TOY STORY IV

 

NEW ZEALAND, 66K

▪︎ 47% of the top 10

▪︎ 2nd biggest OD for Illumination

▪︎ in line with the opening Thursday for SING II, and above MINIONS and MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[cooldude97]

finally the pikachu comparisons will die 

Edited April 5, 2023 by cooldude97

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah Guardians is looking very bad, even knowing Mario exploding this much probably is hurting it a bit  

 

The movie being isolated from the MCU and not having so much urgency can be a factor as well to make people not worry to rush buying tickets 

 

And of course MCU is in bad shape right now, especially after Quantumania, so maybe it will follow a different path on final week

 

But even with all that, 100-110M would be a disaster considering Vol 2 opened with +170M adjusted and both Guardians movies are very beloved by audiences. Disney should just ignore the secrecy around MCU titles and premiere this already, allowing reactions very early and reviews at least 1 week before release, it´s crystal clear at this point people won´t pay for MCU tickets with a high chance of being disappointed

[Flamengo81]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

It has begun.

 

44 markets Wednesday

70 markets Friday

 

7.95M Asia Pacific including sneaks

 

CHINA, 4.95M

▪︎ number 3 in the market after Suzume and Hachiko

▪︎ biggest OD for Hollywood animation since the pandemic

▪︎ second-biggest OD for a studio title in 2023

▪︎ above MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU (+42%) and THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS (+43%), both Friday openers

▪︎ in line with ALADDIN and INCREDIBLES II

▪︎ 9.4 score on Maoyan, the best for a Hollywood animation in the last five years

▪︎ Maoyan currently predicts a 20M finish
 

AUSTRALIA, 1.1M

▪︎ 62% of the total market

▪︎ first day gross is more than 5× second-placed JOHN WICK IV

▪︎ biggest OD of the year

▪︎ best Illumination OD ever

▪︎ top animated April start of all time

▪︎ above the standard OD of FROZEN II, INCREDIBLES II, FINDING DORY, THE JUNGLE BOOK, ALADDIN, TOY STORY IV, and more than double MINIONS

 

HONG KONG, 700K

▪︎ biggest OD of 2023

▪︎ biggest OD for any Universal animation

▪︎ biggest April animation OD ever

▪︎ in line with the opening Thursday of MINIONS

▪︎ above the opening Thursdays of INCREDIBLES II, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, and TOY STORY IV

 

NEW ZEALAND, 66K

▪︎ 47% of the top 10

▪︎ 2nd biggest OD for Illumination

▪︎ in line with the opening Thursday for SING II, and above MINIONS and MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU

 

Hell yeah. The audience reception just needs to be good and history will be made.

[keysersoze123]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 MTC1 Friday - 35451/1268373 661713.23 6867 shows

 

Sold about 2700 tickets over past day. Nothing much to say.  Ant 3 was around 54K T-28. 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

Mario is blowing up in wall-ups this afternoon at the Cineplex’s around me in Ottawa. Can’t remember the last Wednesday opener like this. Definitely not surprised by these 30+ predictions for today.

 

Aren't there power outages up in Ottawa right now as well? And generally pretty bad driving conditions. Impressive if sales are staying strong.

 

On my end (Cineplex in Western GTA), sales this morning were at 320. They're at just over 400 so far. That's with the AVX early show at near capacity (80%). People are resorting to the seats no one takes in the front row.

 

I've been tracking opening day walkups recently, and this is doing pretty well. That early show can't hold much more, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't sell out at this rate, and then see business spill over to the other showtimes.

 

If this can do 50% increase through day of walkups when presales were already solid, that's a great sign. 

[OceanBlvd]

150 million for Mario wtf 

Edited April 5, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[dobrevv]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 MTC1 Friday - 35451/1268373 661713.23 6867 shows

 

Sold about 2700 tickets over past day. Nothing much to say.  Ant 3 was around 54K T-28. 

just so you know your post on gotg presales is everywhere,on box office and new marvel spoilers reddit and is now on twitter 

[ViewerAnon]

I'll take down my tweet! I didn't show any counts from this thread but talked about the general range it was looking at.

[Flamengo81]

4 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

just so you know your post on gotg presales is everywhere,on box office and new marvel spoilers reddit and is now on twitter 

lmao

 

I saw the meltdown on Box Office, but Marvel subreddit must be one hell of a slaugher 🤣

[Flamengo81]

1 minute ago, ViewerAnon said:

I'll take down my tweet! I didn't show any counts from this thread but talked about the general range it was looking at.

I don't think that is bad at all, at least IMO. Of course there is a lot of backlash and misinsformation, but there are a lot of people that discovers this forum and learns to respect the tracking that is made here this way.

[TheFlatLannister]

 

@ViewerAnon U shouldn't have deleted the tweet...r/marvelstudios would have gone up in flames🤣

[vafrow]

Whatever ire these forecasts on GOTG3 are causing right now would have otherwise happened once Box Office Pro releases their long term forecast later this week. I'm expecting that will catch a lot of people's eyes that might hesitate to take message forums and Reddit posts too seriously.

[froztking]

it's gonna be fun specially with marios outperforming prediction ! nd antman 3 digital dropping so ppl can make all those memes ! marvel is at there worst phase rn !! they have to do a premiere nd spread the wom if the movie is really good ! if gog is bad dor average then it's a endgame for mcu

[el sid]

GotG3, counted today after 1 ½ day on sale (around noon in Germany) for Thursday, May 4 (29 days left)

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 326 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 406 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 43 (18 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 16 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 83 (18 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 608 (28 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 382 (37 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.363.

Comps (all films counted for Thursday): Dune had after 1 day 1.038 sold tickets,
Thor 4 had on Tuesday of the release week 7.843 sold tickets,
SC had on Monday of the release week 1.680 sold tickets.
Uncharted had with 15 days to go 454 sold tickets
and Wakanda Forever had also with 15 days to go 4.947 sold tickets.

GotG3, counted also after 1 ½ day on sale for Friday, May 5 (30 days left)

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 285 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 212 (20 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 22 (19 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 353 (22 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 408 (29 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.299.

Comps (both films counted for Friday): Dune had after 1 day 1.426 sold tickets
and Uncharted had with 16 days left 276 sold tickets.

So at least in my theaters it's no disaster. Not stellar but quite solid. Of course its success depends on the jumps especially in the last week.

Edited April 5, 2023 by el sid

[elzorro]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 MTC1 Friday - 35451/1268373 661713.23 6867 shows

 

Sold about 2700 tickets over past day. Nothing much to say.  Ant 3 was around 54K T-28. 

54k what?

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Air T-0: 37.44% Awareness, 5.72 Interest

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-0: 61.38%, 6.46

Paint T-2: 26.88%, 5.24

Mafia Mamma T-9: 28.21%, 5.34

Beau is Afraid T-16: 12.74%, 4.77

The Covenant T-16: 28.21%, 5.43

Joy Ride T-93: 21.3%, 5.07

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-23: 21.59%, 5.04

Fast X T-44: 49.49%, 6.11

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-33: 53.45% Awareness, 6.54 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 40% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 80% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M 

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M