The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26559	29666	3107	10.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

93

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.02		187	9134		0/329	31774/40908	22.33%		21117	14.71%		12.25m
L&T	58.72		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	18.32%		17.03m
BP2	50.95		150	6098		1/294	30924/37022	16.47%		16800	18.49%		14.27m
AM3	76.38		104	4068		0/235	28488/32556	12.50%		10475	29.66%		13.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      558/11075  [5.04% sold]
Matinee:     92/3555  [2.59% | 2.96% of all tickets sold]
3D:            334/5522  [6.05% | 10.75% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26483	29666	3183	10.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

76

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.35		132	9266		0/329	31642/40908	22.65%		21117	15.07%		12.37m
L&T	57.61		234	5525		0/228	26075/31600	17.48%		16962	18.77%		16.71m
BP2	51.24		114	6212		1/294	30810/37022	16.78%		16800	18.95%		14.35m
AM3	77.05		63	4131		0/235	28425/32556	12.69%		10475	30.39%		13.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     570/11075  [5.15% sold]
Matinee:    96/3555  [2.70% | 3.02% of all tickets sold]
3D:            351/5522  [6.36% | 11.03% of all tickets sold]

[poweranimals]

I'm confused about something. People are predicting a higher opening for Guardians than AM3 but looking at all the tracking, it appears that Guardians is tracking below AM3.

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I'm confused about something. People are predicting a higher opening for Guardians than AM3 but looking at all the tracking, it appears that Guardians is tracking below AM3.

 

They are hoping for more of a Thor 4 finish - yes, if you look right now $98M seems on point ($15M previews, 6.5x OW)...and I won't say that won't happen.  I'll just say what the hope is...better reviews, better late buyers, better buyers over the full weekend...

 

Ant Man 3 really sucked at the end of the presale period and through the weekend, more than the norm for MCU...unless, AM3 is the new norm for MCU, but we won't know that til GOTG 3 opens...

[WorkingonaName]

$98M would be So-low/JL tier.

[Mickiland16]

Since the runtime is already showing on some sites, anyone knows how close are we from the start of The Little Mermaid presales? 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

I'm confused about something. People are predicting a higher opening for Guardians than AM3 but looking at all the tracking, it appears that Guardians is tracking below AM3.

Poor reception kind of killed AM3. Some in here thought $150M was in play. I guess the assumption is GOTG3 will be well/fairly received 

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Count Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2841	39919	7.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 56

 

Comp - T-21

2.111x of Black Widow (27.86M)

2.838x of Eternals (26.96M)

0.342x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.3M)

0.673x of Thor 4 (19.53M)

0.486x of Black Panther 2 (13.61M)

0.810x of Ant-Man 3 (14.18M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2903	39919	7.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 62

 

Comp - T-20

1.976x of Black Widow (26.08M)

2.542x of Eternals (24.15M)

0.334x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.02M)

0.633x of Thor 4 (18.35M)

0.473x of Black Panther 2 (13.25M)

0.792x of Ant-Man 3 (13.85M)

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Count Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-35 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	428	17734	2.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-35

0.430x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.73M)

3.658x of Nope (23.41M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	432	17734	2.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp - T-34

0.415x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.47M)

3.600x of Nope (23.04M)

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

They are hoping for more of a Thor 4 finish - yes, if you look right now $98M seems on point ($15M previews, 6.5x OW)...and I won't say that won't happen.  I'll just say what the hope is...better reviews, better late buyers, better buyers over the full weekend...

 

Ant Man 3 really sucked at the end of the presale period and through the weekend, more than the norm for MCU...unless, AM3 is the new norm for MCU, but we won't know that til GOTG 3 opens...

Fair enough. Still oddly concerning though. I have faith in James Gunn but I also had faith in Taika Waititi.

[Eric Prime]

Re: the Guardians will open above Ant-Man's opening.

 

Gotta be honest, this whole "just wait for the final week" feels like something people just want to happen because they don't want to deal with Guardians doing worse than Ant-Man. It's already doing worse in ticket sales than Ant-Man and has been losing ground here in Philly. But now it's expected to shoot all the way up and sell a bunch of tickets and have way bigger previews and everything will be happy? It would basically have to have insane walkups to catch Quantumania's ticket sales. I'm sorry guys, but this is likely heading for sub-100.

[Maggie]

7 minutes ago, Count Eric said:

Re: the Guardians will open above Ant-Man's opening.

. I'm sorry guys, but this is likely heading for sub-100.

  Really? That bad????

[Eric Prime]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

  Really? That bad????

Keysersoze has been saying that as a possibility and previews are gearing for mid-teens. Add on superhero fatigue and "sad boi marketing" and there's little reason for me to be optimistic. Could be wrong here of course, but y'all should gear up for this reality.

[Starrow5722]

3 minutes ago, Count Eric said:

Keysersoze has been saying that as a possibility and previews are gearing for mid-teens. Add on superhero fatigue and there's little reason for me to be optimistic. Could be wrong here of course, but y'all should gear up for this reality.

😬 For the GOTG fans out there, I'm hoping ya'll are wrong(no offense to any of you, ya'll do fantastic work).

Edited April 15, 2023 by Starrow5722

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, Count Eric said:

Re: the Guardians will open above Ant-Man's opening.

 

Gotta be honest, this whole "just wait for the final week" feels like something people just want to happen because they don't want to deal with Guardians doing worse than Ant-Man. It's already doing worse in ticket sales than Ant-Man and has been losing ground here in Philly. But now it's expected to shoot all the way up and sell a bunch of tickets and have way bigger previews and everything will be happy? It would basically have to have insane walkups to catch Quantumania's ticket sales. I'm sorry guys, but this is likely heading for sub-100.

 

I'd join you, since me mentioning $98M wasn't just out of the air:)...BUT, I went out on a limb for Ant Man 3 b/c, well, I just felt that one.  I'm not AS certain on this one, so I'm not gonna put my rep on it being lower than Ant 3 til I see if my Cinemarks stick to their guns OW and don't expand it and leave it with its low sets...THEN, I'll be on a sub $100 train.  

[kayumanggi]

If GOTG misses 100M, that will be the first time (excluding pandemic years 2020 and 2021) a movie misses the century mark since 2014's TASM II.

 

2022 | 187.4M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

2019 | 357.1M | AVENGERS: ENDGAME

2018 | 257.7M | AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

2017 | 146.5M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II

2016 | 179.1M | CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR

2015 | 191.3M | AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON

2014 | 091.6M | THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN II

Edited April 15, 2023 by kayumanggi

[GOGODanca]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

If GOTG misses 100M, that will be the first time (excluding pandemic years 2020 and 2021) a movie misses the century mark since 2014's TASM II.

 

2022 | 187.4M | DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS

2019 | 357.1M | AVENGERS: ENDGAME

2018 | 257.7M | AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

2017 | 146.5M | GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II

2016 | 179.1M | CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR

2015 | 191.3M | AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON

2014 | 091.6M | THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN II

Crazy that we got 3 of the best CBM's ever in 2014 and none could break $100m OW

[Tinalera]

Guardians Of The Galaxy 3

Thurs May 4 and Fri May 5

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	43	1014	6183	7197	0.1408
	Fri	4	50	543	9845	10388	0.0522
Montreal		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	18	573	4488	5061	0.1132
	fri	4	25	458	6779	7237	0.0632

 

 

Comp for Antman around same time 

 

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Dec 17 (taken Jan 27)

Toronto and Montreal Canada 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	1541	5532	7073	0.2178
	Fri	4	36	998	8529	9527	0.1047

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Quebec	Thurs	4	18	860	3783	4643	0.1852
	Fri	4	23	623	5670	6293	0.0989

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/14/2023 at 2:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
15	471	2130	22.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

 

Comps 

Renfield T-0 (0.726x) ~$650K THUR 

The Pope's Exorcist T-0 (1.746x) ~$1.4M THUR 

 

Note: It has fewer showings than Pope's Exorcist or Renfield as of T-6 

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	530	2471	21.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

*2 New Showings Added Today 

*59 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

Renfield T-0 (0.835x) ~$751K THUR 

The Pope's Exorcist T-0 (2.008x) ~$1.7M THUR 

 

So as of right now, I would predict $1M-$2M THUR

 

Show count is still really low compared to Renfield or Pope's Exorcist 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

4 hours ago, Count Eric said:

Re: the Guardians will open above Ant-Man's opening.

 

Gotta be honest, this whole "just wait for the final week" feels like something people just want to happen because they don't want to deal with Guardians doing worse than Ant-Man. It's already doing worse in ticket sales than Ant-Man and has been losing ground here in Philly. But now it's expected to shoot all the way up and sell a bunch of tickets and have way bigger previews and everything will be happy? It would basically have to have insane walkups to catch Quantumania's ticket sales. I'm sorry guys, but this is likely heading for sub-100.

Eric I regret to inform you that r/boxoffice found this.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, Count Eric said:

Keysersoze has been saying that as a possibility and previews are gearing for mid-teens. Add on superhero fatigue and "sad boi marketing" and there's little reason for me to be optimistic. Could be wrong here of course, but y'all should gear up for this reality.

Got to agree here. We have data from 5 chains and multiple big markets like Phily and Sacramento. I think even @Menor Reborn aluded that Marcus was also trending lower. We have not gotten any numbers to conflict that. So that is 6 chains. 

 

Its not just that Guardians has started badly(starting presales during Mario's crazy OW was not optimal). But even post Mario's OW, sales are well below Ant 3 levels and the trend have not changed at all. If anything its gotten worse. Its selling still around 70% of Ant 3 in its 13th day of its presales start. Let us not even compare these numbers with Thor or BP. They were at even higher levels than Ant. Assuming no catalyst until week before release, at low 70s level of Ant, it needs a huge ramp up to even catch up with Ant 3. I definitely see missing 100m as not just possible but probable. 

 

Plus its friday sales are not backloaded as well. its at 51K at MTC1 just now vs 93644 for previews(taken overnight yesterday). Even at MTC2 where friday tends to catch up its at 38800 (as of yesterday night) as opposed to thursday previews of 54566(just finished). Beyond all the domestic chains even Canada and Australia are behind Ant 3 !!! So its not an anomaly but a consistent pattern. 

 

I was in the camp of this performing the best among all MCU movies in 23/24 and actually have better presales start than Thor. But its closer to 60% of Thor which started a week later than Guardians/Ant. 

 

I am really surprised that little is being done from Disney to change the trend. I would look at early premier and even fan shows to build up hype. 

 

Anyway since I mentioned let me rather post numbers as well. 

 

MTC1 Thursday(T-20) - 93644/1147444 1675410.10 7014 shows +1535 // yesterday night

MTC1 Friday  - 51022/1269590 935123.64 6876 shows

MTC2 Thursday - 54566/590003 781744.87 3753 shows +1299 // just now

MTC2 Friday - 38800/825436 518385.07 5265 shows // This is as of yesterday