The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Mickiland16]

Does anyone knows something about it? Going by other Disney films I guess monday?

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So double catalyst next friday onwards. We should see HUGE BOOST if this will have a good OW. I am expecting sales double next friday and its pace should be around Thor 4 level for it to have any chance of 130m OW. Dont forget Thor had great final 2 days of presales. It was stronger than DS2. 

 

I am very convinced a large part of that was catch up from Fourth of July, FWIW.   I don't think we're gonna see any MCU replicate L&T's last five day pattern for quite a while unless that film also releases on a holiday weekend.  

 

ETA:  And even then L&T's release date was something of a perfect storm given than Fourth of July fell on a Monday, which is the time tickets usually continue the lift-off stage from Sunday.  Having a very depressed Monday led to a ripple affect all through TWTh, IMO.

 

Certainly nothing in the reviews warranted the surge we saw for L&T.  At least IMO.  

Edited April 21, 2023 by Porthos

[GOGODanca]

GotG3 is still a mcu sequel, its not suddenly gonna behave like a Jurassic World and pull an 8x IM, 6 is the highest i can see it getting too, likely 5.5-5.75

[vafrow]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So double catalyst next friday onwards. We should see HUGE BOOST if this will have a good OW. I am expecting sales double next friday and its pace should be around Thor 4 level for it to have any chance of 130m OW. Dont forget Thor had great final 2 days of presales. It was stronger than DS2. 

 

Is Thors sales patterns more driven by being a mid summer release? People's schedules are more flexible, and can watch a Thursday late show with minimal notice or planning.

 

That's been my biggest fear of using that as a comp, even though it's the best from the type of film within the MCU.

 

Early May releases seem to involve more planning. Schools are still in session and people are in full work mode. 

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

Does anyone knows something about it? Going by other Disney films I guess monday?

@datpepper is the one to update on when ticket sales will start. 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I am very convinced a large part of that was catch up from Fourth of July, FWIW.   I don't think we're gonna see any MCU replicate L&T's last five day pattern for quite a while unless that film also releases on a holiday weekend.

I agree. That is why expecting Guardians to come close after mediocre sales till final week is almost impossible. 

 

Thor 4 MTC1 T-14 - 199538 and daily pace > 2x Guardians daily pace. 

On Friday Sales as well

GOTG Friday -  60335/1273312 1093878.91 6901 shows +1700 // run just finished. 

 

we dont have exact comps but its total is under 60% of Thor 4 and daily pace is also less than half. 

 

 

I expecting this trend to persist until next friday. So you can do the math for what needs to happen for Guardians to catch up. 

 

 

[DisposedData]

So 19m is the absolute ceiling you guys are expecting?

[ZackM]

16 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
4/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	3,991	17,116	23.32%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.35

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	4	6,870
Seats Added	194	480	1,119,673
Seats Sold	1,560	2,251	98,230
4/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,876	102,041	1,120,347	9.11%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	23	94	191
ATP
$17.74

 

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
4/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,053	17,116	23.68%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.34

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	2	4	6,870
Seats Added	321	194	480	1,119,673
Seats Sold	1,831	1,560	2,251	98,230
4/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,879	103,872	1,120,668	9.27%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	23	96	198
ATP
$17.72

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

In terms of catalyst won´t the review embargo being so close to the social reactions give them one less catalyst? Or is it insignificant?

 

If I were in charge of Disney/Marvel marketing I'd give serious consideration to a Surprise Drop at next week's Cinema Con.  Even if social media embargo isn't lifted, just the buzz from folks who can't help themselves might give this a shot in the arm.

 

At the very least show something during/after the Disney presentation.  Really anything here ought to help.

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

At risk of repeating myself I just don't see good reviews providing a major boost. WOM is gonna be key for most MCU (and realistically most CBMs) from here on out. Maybe initial weekend WOM can get it past Ant-Man and maybe $110M but I think that's the absolute best case scenario for the OW right now.

[Tinalera]

Guardians of the Galaxy 3

Thurs May 4 Fri May 5

Vancouver and Calgary Canada (T-14)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	4	21	613	3698	4311	0.1421
	Fri	4	26	527	4517	5044	0.1044
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	21	458	3708	4166	0.1099
	Fri	4	25	294	3698	3992	0.0736

 

Thought I had Antman T-14 but I have jump it seems from like 3 weeks out to T-14, so Ill do those Antmans when I get to them (another "cycle") but seems my Antmans are pretty consistent from that point on. (man Antman was all over the place for me lol), I DO have DnD however

 

Dungeons and Dragons 

Thur Mar 30 and Fri Mar 31 (T-14)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	3	13	52	2725	2777	0.0187
	Fri	3	19	80	4876	3969	0.0201
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	14	43	2738	2781	0.0154
	Fri	4	14	150	3132	3282	0.0457

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
4/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,053	17,116	23.68%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.34

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	2	4	6,870
Seats Added	321	194	480	1,119,673
Seats Sold	1,831	1,560	2,251	98,230
4/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,879	103,872	1,120,668	9.27%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	23	96	198
ATP
$17.72

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

This is a great format by the way. I love seeing the trend patterns like this.

[thajdikt]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

If I were in charge of Disney/Marvel marketing I'd give serious consideration to a Surprise Drop at next week's Cinema Con.  Even if social media embargo isn't lifted, just the buzz from folks who can't help themselves might give this a shot in the arm.

 

At the very least show something during/after the Disney presentation.  Really anything here ought to help.

 

100%. Their panel is on Wednesday, screening it should have been the nr 1 priority. Especially since the socials lifts the day after. But according to the cinemacon schedule they´re apparently screening The Boogeyman. They showed 20 minutes last year of Doctor Strange, hopefully they do something similar.

Edited April 21, 2023 by thajdikt

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Speaking of Cinemacon, if Flash ends up getting great reactions on Tuesday I wonder if that could end up overshadowing Guardians’ reviews, esp with all the attention on Flash and if it’ll truly live up to all the talk surrounding it (I personally don’t put much into CC reactions cause those are mostly exhibitors and Erik Davis types who will hype up anything), but it’s something worth considering I think. 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Beau is Afraid T-1: 15.65% Awareness, 4.76 Interest

Guardians of the Galaxy T-15: 57.38%, 6.7

You Hurt My Feelings T-36: 13.04%, 4.61

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-71: 41.69%, 6.37

 

Chevalier T-1: 19.17% Awareness, 4.53 Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 8% chance of 10M

 

The Covenant T-1: 32.01% Awareness, 5.45 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 27% chance of 10M

 

Evil Dead Rise T-1: 41.03% Awareness, 5.68 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 66% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

 

About My Father T-36: 16.91% Awareness, 4.94 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 37% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 28% chance of 10M

 

Kandahar T-36: 13.39% Awareness, 5.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 54% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 36% chance of 10M

 

The Little Mermaid T-36: 59.19% Awareness, 6.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 70% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 67% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 50% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M

[JD Asencio]

8 minutes ago, Eric Williams said:

Quorum Updates

Beau is Afraid T-1: 15.65% Awareness, 4.76 Interest

Guardians of the Galaxy T-15: 57.38%, 6.7

You Hurt My Feelings T-36: 13.04%, 4.61

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-71: 41.69%, 6.37

 

Chevalier T-1: 19.17% Awareness, 4.53 Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 8% chance of 10M

 

The Covenant T-1: 32.01% Awareness, 5.45 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 27% chance of 10M

 

Evil Dead Rise T-1: 41.03% Awareness, 5.68 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 66% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

 

About My Father T-36: 16.91% Awareness, 4.94 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 37% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 28% chance of 10M

 

Kandahar T-36: 13.39% Awareness, 5.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 54% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 36% chance of 10M

 

The Little Mermaid T-36: 59.19% Awareness, 6.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 70% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 67% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 50% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M

How often are these updates given?  Do they follow a pattern or not?  I am waiting for an update on Transformers and The Flash as they are about to release their second trailers

[Eric Prime]

1 hour ago, Mickiland16 said:

Does anyone knows something about it? Going by other Disney films I guess monday?

Not an official confirmation, so don't quote me, but Monday sounds right. I work at Target, and our Little Mermaid toys and merch will be available for purchase starting Sunday. So having tickets basically at the same time as the toys makes sense from a marketing perspective.

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

At risk of repeating myself I just don't see good reviews providing a major boost. WOM is gonna be key for most MCU (and realistically most CBMs) from here on out. Maybe initial weekend WOM can get it past Ant-Man and maybe $110M but I think that's the absolute best case scenario for the OW right now.

 

When we were looking at a bad weekend being about $120-130M , I felt word of mouth would be the more important factor, and that rebuilding trust in the brand would be more important in the long run.

 

But, it's going to be really hard for GOTG3 to overcome a bad opening weekend, and hope to leg out. Shazam is the best recent example. It wasn't a great film, but it wasn't hated. But, a horrible opening weekend made the story about it's box office success, and then it now has the worst multiplier of any comic book movie.

 

An opening weekend below Antman will be extremely difficult to overcome, regardless of quality. 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

5 minutes ago, JD Asencio said:

How often are these updates given?  Do they follow a pattern or not?  I am waiting for an update on Transformers and The Flash as they are about to release their second trailers

Quorum puts updates on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays every week. Generally, the closer a movie is to release, the more likely we will get an update. If a trailer or poster also drops recently, that's also more likely we will see an update.

 

As for Flash and Transformers, they both recently got updates around the T-60 range. Transformers has 45% Awareness and 6.25 Interest. That roughly makes 40M+ a certainty, with strong potential for 50M+ and possibly 60M/70M, though it would need to have a good amount of luck to hit those latter two thresholds. Flash is at 48% Awareness and 6.12 Interest, so about the same ratio of success for Flash, though being a superhero movie does mean it can has easier chances to get 60M+ or 70M+, though I don't know if it can reach the century mark just yet.

 

Though of course things are very, very fluid and things can change on a dime. When we get to the week of release, that's when things are at higher certainties and the margin of error is a lot smaller.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

When we were looking at a bad weekend being about $120-130M , I felt word of mouth would be the more important factor, and that rebuilding trust in the brand would be more important in the long run.

 

But, it's going to be really hard for GOTG3 to overcome a bad opening weekend, and hope to leg out. Shazam is the best recent example. It wasn't a great film, but it wasn't hated. But, a horrible opening weekend made the story about it's box office success, and then it now has the worst multiplier of any comic book movie.

 

An opening weekend below Antman will be extremely difficult to overcome, regardless of quality. 

 

 

Pretty much all this, and only having two weeks to itself before the summer onslaught begins.