The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

So the pace is almost at 4K per day at Alpha. Let us hope it keeps building. But yesterday was a good day for sure. 

 

Did LM presales start just this morning or yesterday night?

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by keysersoze123

[RamblinRed]

30 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
4/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,301	17,116	25.13%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.32

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	13	10	0	2	5
Seats Added	1,224	1,082	0	216	847
Seats Sold	3,777	3,181	3,061	2,049	2,119
4/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,909	118,059	1,124,037	10.50%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	28	118	243
ATP
$17.54

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

I keep waiting to see some significant upward movement, but it looks like if that is to happen it likely occurs after the review embargo lifts on Friday (assuming the reviews are strong). It's frustrating to see that it is arguably in a worse position today than 8 days ago. 

 

Every day I look at this and just think, it is running out of days to improve.

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So the pace is almost at 4K per day at Alpha. Let us hope it keeps building. But yesterday was a good day for sure. 

 

Did LM presales start just this morning or yesterday night?

 

Ant 3 pace was 6100 after the premiere which made the comp drop but it dropped to 4400 today. I'm hopeful that Guardians can get close to or surpass the pace today without any help from the premiere or reactions/reviews. That would also put less pressure on having a really high review bump.

 

LM I believe started last night at midnight but the Fandango alert came this morning.

7 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I keep waiting to see some significant upward movement, but it looks like if that is to happen it likely occurs after the review embargo lifts on Friday (assuming the reviews are strong). It's frustrating to see that it is arguably in a worse position today than 8 days ago. 

 

Every day I look at this and just think, it is running out of days to improve.

I wouldn't put any hopes on the BP2 or Thor comps improving significantly until after reviews. The AM3 comp is very likely going to start moving up from tomorrow's update.

[M37]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

I cannot stress enough that despite the low sales volume, where it is easier in theory to grow faster, how poor the pace (growth rate) of sales has been up until Sunday. The last couple of days are likely an inflection point moving up, but there is a still a LOT of work to be done to get into position for what most would consider a decent OW

 

Pessimistic Case: GOTG3 continues to pace at or only slightly better than AMWQ (+90-100% final week), winds up with a preview value of $13-$14.5M

Base Case: The most likely outcome, is that we do see a more casual audience and review bump, pace moves up a notch, to the BPWF/Thor range (+110-120%), and preview lands in $15-$16M range

Optimistic Case: We see a large review inspired acceleration, and GOTG3 paces faster than Thor/BPWF down the stretch, but probably not quite to level of Batman (+140%), preview total lands more in $16-$17M range

 

Anything above $17.5M would a significant outlier based on data currently in hand. If you're hoping for a bigger OW, better at this point to bet on a higher IM than preview growing to upper teens.

Updated chart through T-9, showing the average still floating around $14.5M, and the potential target zones named above. Choose your own adventure, I suppose

 

This is about the time the Thor sales pattern starts to get weird - a big Wed/Thur jump, then flattening out, before playing catch-up late - thanks to 4th of July, so I'm mostly watching whether GOTG3 tracks closer to AMWQ or BPWF from here on out. Tuesday sales were about what was expected, and still on track for 127-128K in Alpha by T-7.  But that's when the real fun begins, and we should have a better idea by /Sunday/Monday (T-4 updates) of what kind of potential trajectory is likely up to the finish line.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

 Little Mermaid pre sales will be interesting since it’ll likely be adult-heavy with families more walk up based.

 

As for Guardians, looks like it’s still doing around 80% of AMQ’s pre sales. If I recall correctly though didn’t pre sales go down a bit in its last week (I wasn’t on here during that time? if so, hopefully by at least Monday it’s doing better.

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Guardians MTC3

 

Shows: 5301 (+13)

Sold: 39191/1085987 (+1586)

 

So this sets the baseline pace, let's see how it increases through the week. 

Shows: 5385 (+84)

Sold: 41428/1099472 (+2237)

 

Slightly more than 24 hours, I would say take more like 1.9-2k as the 24h pace. 

[YM!]

How is Mermaid doing? And what are we looking for in terms of being good?

[keysersoze123]

57 minutes ago, YM! said:

How is Mermaid doing? And what are we looking for in terms of being good?

Little Mermaid MTC1 previews - 8749/893641 156325.99 5433 shows

 

Good start. Blockbuster show allocation at MTC1. MTC2 just has 2864 shows. Thinking this does about half of Mario OD. 

 

Edit: I thought Mario did 33K. That was after couple of days. I am thinking this can come close to Mario OD. But Mario had weird start. Initial check looked meh and then after a trailer it started going up huge and kept going in day 2. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by keysersoze123

[TheFlatLannister]

12 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

what is Mario's atp like in your threaer?

~$13.50

[Mickiland16]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Just thinking out loud .... Little Mermaid is probably going to be a difficult film to comp. While a family film at its core, there is also going to be a sizeable adult - likely female skewing and therefore earlier buying - audience, especially for Thursday shows

 

The early sales should be sufficiently high that it won't be able to match the high pace (growth) towards the end like pure animation of Minions & Mario (those comps will likely be LOL high), or even Sonic or Ghostbusters. The comps in the next range down are off-genre and may have different market behavior (likes of JWD, Scream VI, Black Adam, etc), and could even skew low into CBM/Avatar 2/TGM range, depending on how the adult vs family share ultimately lands

 

Hopefully the pace in the mid-weeks illuminates what comps it is trending towards, as the range of outcomes from initial sales burst is probably going to be very wide

What about Lightyear? It's still pure animation but since Toy Story is almost 30 years old i supposed there was some sizeable adult fanbase buying tickets. Still probably not enough compared to this though.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

What about Lightyear? It's still pure animation but since Toy Story is almost 30 years old i supposed there was some sizeable adult fanbase buying tickets. Still probably not enough compared to this though.

Lightyear only had a 9 day sales window, so its not going to a suitable comp for really anything, unfortunately

[Mickiland16]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Lightyear only had a 9 day sales window, so its not going to a suitable comp for really anything, unfortunately

Oh I see thanks

[TheFlatLannister]

Little Mermaid looks good here, especially Disney Springs

Just off the eye test I would say its selling maybe ~30% of Mario first 24 and ~40% of GOTG3 first 24 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Fast X

 

Thursday 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
139	1335	26344	5.1%

 

ATP - $13.60

 

 

Will be tracking til T-0

 

           Comparison: 

Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 3

ATP $14.40

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Fast X

 

Thursday 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
139	1402	26344	5.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

67

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.60

           Comparison: 

Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 3

ATP $14.40

[Mickiland16]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Little Mermaid MTC1 previews - 8749/893641 156325.99 5433 shows

 

Good start. Blockbuster show allocation at MTC1. MTC2 just has 2864 shows. Thinking this does about half of Mario OD. 

Do you mean only the first 24 hours of presales or the actual Mario OD number which would mean $15.5M previews? Sorry if it's a dumb question I just don't get it totally and I'm curious. 

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

Do you mean only the first 24 hours of presales or the actual Mario OD number which would mean $15.5M previews? Sorry if it's a dumb question I just don't get it totally and I'm curious. 

since PS has just started, I am talking about 24 hr pace. Plus Mario had no previews. just few midnight shows. It did 31.7m wednesday and I think midnights were around 500K. 

[OceanBlvd]

Half of Mario? 30%??? Bomb me fears. Didn’t Mario start slow? As it is not really a fan rushed movie.

Edited April 26, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, OceanBlvd said:

Half of Mario? 40%??? Bomb me fears. Didn’t Mario start slow?

 

The fact that Mario is used as a comp now, wow.

No, Mario started huge, half of that would be great for Ariel and bodes very well for it´s OW unless it´s super frontloaded or bad received 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, OceanBlvd said:

Half of Mario? 30%??? Bomb me fears. Didn’t Mario start slow?

 

The fact that Mario is used as a comp now, wow.

Relax. I was wrong. I think it comes close to Mario OD presales. That said Mario had weird start. Started slow in initial few hours and then started going on a over drive once trailer came on. Its as if people did not know tickets are available to buy. On March 11 it was just under 32K. That would be a good comp for where LM ends up. 

[Eric Lasagna]

3 minutes ago, OceanBlvd said:

Half of Mario? 30%??? Bomb me fears. Didn’t Mario start slow? As it is not a fan rushed movie.

 

The fact that Mario is used as a comp now, wow.

...what?