The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t want Guardians to fail if it’s as good as the predecessors, but there’s a part of me as well that would be really glad to see the implosion of CBM. It’s just been too much for too long now. 

Exactly the same feelings. If it's really really good, I don't want it to fail, I don't want any good movie to fail in fact. But at the same time I want studios to finally start putting effort in those movies and treat them like real movies, not AI generated 2 hour commercials of toys and cinematic universe, because studios clearly take those IPs for granted and maybe only financial implosion of the entire genre could force them to change their approach and stop treating their audience as fools.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Firepower

[RamblinRed]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
4/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,183	17,116	24.44%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.33

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	2	5	3	2
Seats Added	0	216	847	321	194
Seats Sold	3,061	2,049	2,119	1,831	1,560
4/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,886	111,101	1,121,731	12.85%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	26	109	219
ATP
$17.63

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

I really like this format for the comps. Makes it easy to see if things are getting better, worse or just sort of stable.

So in the last week GotG3 has basically improved just slightly against AM3, and declined slightly against WF and a little bigger drop against Thor. It needs to jump a little just to get back to the comps from a week ago - definitely not ideal.

 

[vafrow]

I'm not 100% convinced that GOTG3 failure means that projects like The Marvels or Captain America New World Order will automatically do worse.

 

I find the one lesson that has gotten repeated in Marvel's box office is that you can't have preconceived ideas on box office potential. Audiences decide what they want to see, and it rarely is predictable.

 

The first Guardians wasn't supposed to hit big, but it just connected. Black Panther wasn't expected to reset expectations like it did. 

 

Heck, go outside the MCU directly, and an R rated Deadpool became the biggest Fox run X-Men movie. Aquaman became a billion dollar film after being introduced in a movie that was considered one of the biggest superhero bombs.

 

The future Marvel films have an uphill battle, but I don't buy into them being write offs like many people have them.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm not 100% convinced that GOTG3 failure means that projects like The Marvels or Captain America New World Order will automatically do worse.

 

I find the one lesson that has gotten repeated in Marvel's box office is that you can't have preconceived ideas on box office potential. Audiences decide what they want to see, and it rarely is predictable.

 

The first Guardians wasn't supposed to hit big, but it just connected. Black Panther wasn't expected to reset expectations like it did. 

 

Heck, go outside the MCU directly, and an R rated Deadpool became the biggest Fox run X-Men movie. Aquaman became a billion dollar film after being introduced in a movie that was considered one of the biggest superhero bombs.

 

The future Marvel films have an uphill battle, but I don't buy into them being write offs like many people have them.

The way I see it, GotG3 is paying for the sins of the previous (very) disapointing Marvel movies. If Guardians, like, switched places with Ant-Man 3's release date things would be much better now. I think if the movie truly turns out to be very good it might give back some of that lost hype to The Marvels, even if Guardians don't make a lot of money.

Edited April 24, 2023 by ThatWaluigiDude

[keysersoze123]

I hope we get an update from @Inceptionzq soon as well. 

[CJohn]

Everyone talking about GotG3 and what I wanted to know is that if Margaret is having any decent pre-sales.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Everyone talking about GotG3 and what I wanted to know is that if Margaret is having any decent pre-sales.

[Ghost Mountain]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm not 100% convinced that GOTG3 failure means that projects like The Marvels or Captain America New World Order will automatically do worse.

 

I find the one lesson that has gotten repeated in Marvel's box office is that you can't have preconceived ideas on box office potential. Audiences decide what they want to see, and it rarely is predictable.

 

The first Guardians wasn't supposed to hit big, but it just connected. Black Panther wasn't expected to reset expectations like it did. 

 

Heck, go outside the MCU directly, and an R rated Deadpool became the biggest Fox run X-Men movie. Aquaman became a billion dollar film after being introduced in a movie that was considered one of the biggest superhero bombs.

 

The future Marvel films have an uphill battle, but I don't buy into them being write offs like many people have them.

If the finale to the GOTG series is flopping and barely has any hype, I don’t see a Captain America movie without Chris Evans or a movie that looks like a Disney+ show doing well. And Thunderbolts will probably flop even harder than those two.

[CJohn]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was hoping for a small breakout. Oh well.

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Everyone talking about GotG3 and what I wanted to know is that if Margaret is having any decent pre-sales.

 

TMobile $5 Atom deal starts tomorrow.

 

That said, this movie seems so wholesome, I'm not sure if that will play with the normal TMobile movie deal users (it's also the 1st deal for a movie definitely going for a female audience, so we'll see how it plays).

 

But, I will say - it can't hurt - it can only help.  Before the deal and after Mario, I expected this movie to make $5M OW.  But then the deal got announced right after that Mario weekend and I thought maybe Shawn's numbers wouldn't be nutty anymore...

[keysersoze123]

Margeret MTC1 previews - 1967/114436 24490.55 1055 shows +429

 

Almost non existent sales/meh pace. Let us see how this changes after Atom deal tomorrow. 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by keysersoze123

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/23/2023 at 4:53 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
207	5629	31356	17.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-13

291

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-13

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

2 days of sales

 

A small jump in presales over the past 2 days, but nothing notable 

 

 

***These aren't great comps but they seem to point to the same range other trackers have seen, so here they are:

 

Mario Wednesday: (0.454x) ~$14.4M THUR

John Wick Thursday: (1.565x) ~$13.9M THUR

 

If it follows Antman 3 (6x IM) ~$85M OW

If it follows Wakanda Forever (6.5x IM) ~$91M OW

 

Yeah, I could easily see this going sub $100M OW

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	6085	34342	17.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 ATP - $14.40

 

Added Regal chains so showings and seats sold will be way up. So I'll just ignore sold and seats added for today. I will add how many seats sold tomorrow. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Everyone talking about GotG3 and what I wanted to know is that if Margaret is having any decent pre-sales.

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.

 

Thursday

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
28	64	3985	1.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 9:00pm EST}

ATP - $11.79

As @keysersoze123 stated, non-existent 

[misterpepp]

Little Mermaid tickets this Wednesday at 9am EST

[Mickiland16]

5 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Little Mermaid tickets this Wednesday at 9am EST

The actual biggest May opener (2023) here we come 

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Little Mermaid tickets this Wednesday at 9am EST

 

Disney just had to fuck with my Jedi Survivor Weekend, didn't they? 

 

Couldn't wait until next Monday for a normal 24 day run?  Noooooo, gotta go for a full month of pre-sales (once again fucking with comps) because of course they did.

 

grumblegrumblegripegripebitchmoancomplain.  

 

Spoiler

Not really that big of a deal, but I really ain't looking forward to three full sized tracks at once.  

 

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not really that big of a deal, but I really ain't looking forward to three full sized tracks at once.

… that’s pretty much how it’s going to be for the summer, right? Probably some period of 4, maybe even 5 overlapping 

 

GOTG 3 —> Spidey 

Fast X —> Transformers 

Add Flash, Elemental (?)

Little Mermaid —> Indy 

Then Mi7, Barbie and Oppenheimer will go on sale at some point 

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

… that’s pretty much how it’s going to be for the summer, right? Probably some period of 4, maybe even 5 overlapping 

 

GOTG 3 —> Spidey 

Fast X —> Transformers 

Add Flash, Elemental (?)

Little Mermaid —> Indy 

Then Mi7, Barbie and Oppenheimer will go on sale at some point 

 

 

Yeah, I might have to punt on Oppenheimer and Transformers, depending on tracking.  Just too many balls in the air.  Ordinarily might also punt on MI7, but TGM + Sheer Ticket Inflation might make it cross the event horizon.

 

(I was joking in the WE thread with my Shawshank gif — but then again, the best jokes have a grain of truth to them)

((Sometimes more than a grain or two ))

[keysersoze123]

On 4/20/2023 at 3:38 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians MTC2 Previews - 61387/593105 875845.79 3766 shows +1864 

Guardians MTC2 Previews - 69623/594509 989638.98 3768 shows +8236

 

This is 4 days and few hours of run.  20m previews would normally mean 260-280K finish. Let us see if it can get there. 

 

It stopped working since thursday and then started working today. :-)

[Sckathian]

7 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm not 100% convinced that GOTG3 failure means that projects like The Marvels or Captain America New World Order will automatically do worse.

 

I find the one lesson that has gotten repeated in Marvel's box office is that you can't have preconceived ideas on box office potential. Audiences decide what they want to see, and it rarely is predictable.

 

The first Guardians wasn't supposed to hit big, but it just connected. Black Panther wasn't expected to reset expectations like it did. 

 

Heck, go outside the MCU directly, and an R rated Deadpool became the biggest Fox run X-Men movie. Aquaman became a billion dollar film after being introduced in a movie that was considered one of the biggest superhero bombs.

 

The future Marvel films have an uphill battle, but I don't buy into them being write offs like many people have them.

GOTG had a massive budget and introduced the wider family of Thanos. Marvel absolutely wanted it to be a box office hit. Was it a risk? Absolutely. But it’s budget shows they wanted it to break out.

 

I do agree you don’t know what will connect with audiences all the time but also that seems like a problem for the MCU. It’s as likely none of them connect as all of them connect. Which is a problem when it comes to allocating the monies.