The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

138

2943

4.68%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

114

2409

4.73%

 

Wednesday: 253 sold

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
891	N/A	23716	3.75%	12	160

 

2.70x Ghostbusters Afterlife T-10 (12.14M)

1.28x Shang-Chi T-10 (11.25M)

Can you add JWD and Avatar comps as well. 

[Inceptionzq]

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

344

2967

11.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

224

1754

12.77%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1382	N/A	21712	6.36%	12	128

 

0.791x JW Dominion T-17 (14.23M)

0.456x Batman T-17 (9.85M)

1.22x Eternals T-17 (11.62M)

[Inceptionzq]

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-17 Thursday(129 showings): 3844/20228 ATP: $16.05

0.958x JW Dominion T-17 (17.24M)

0.539x Batman Thurs only T-17 (9.49M)

1.10x Eternals T-17 (10.43M)

 

T-18 Friday(176 showings): 3024/28935 ATP: $16.12

0.820x JW Dominion T-18 (34.10M)

0.448x Batman T-18 (15.70M)

1.05x Eternals T-18 (22.41M)

 

T-19 Saturday(169 showings): 3200/27994

0.884x JW Dominion T-19 (41.45M)

0.537x Batman T-19 (24.38M)

1.14x Eternals T-19 (27.50M)

 

T-20 Sunday(152 showings): 1640/25215

1.05x JW Domion T-20 (40.53M)

0.716x Batman T-20 (24.43M)

1.06x Eternals T-20 (17.39M)

[Inceptionzq]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you add JWD and Avatar comps as well. 

No JWD comps for today, but I added the Avatar comps

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/14/2023 at 5:44 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY incl EA 

 

T-25

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	912	22296	4.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.87

 

 

COMPS

T-25

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.216x) ~$3.9M THUR 

 

If it follows Bumblebee IM ~$29M OW

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY incl EA 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	961	22296	4.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.87

 

 

COMPS

T-24

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.213x) ~$3.8M THUR 

 

If it follows Bumblebee IM ~$28M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/14/2023 at 6:00 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	2810	25449	11.0%

*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

103

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

Another excellent day 

 

COMPS

T-18

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.581x) ~$10.2M THUR

 

If it follows ITSV IM (~$101M OW)

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	2834	25449	11.4%

*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

 

COMPS

T-17

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.569x) ~$9.9M THUR

 

If it follows ITSV IM (~$98M OW)

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday -  12571/35113 271474.31 154 shows

previews(T-11) - 40797/910933 711588.37 5557 shows +1689

 

 

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 13000/35113 280224.52 154 shows

Previews(T-10) - 43319/911893 753714.79 5564 shows +2522

Friday - 43892/1036803 733174.58 5718 shows

 

Good news is that its accelerating compared to last week post reactions boost. Friday pace is much better than previews and is already ahead. So bodes well for at least 8x multi.   

[keysersoze123]

On 5/11/2023 at 9:36 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews - 59665/734699 1085038.89 3907 shows +2835

 

That is a good hold for day 4. 

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews - 67483/734962 1216515.85 3913 shows  // +1898 over past day

 

This is the steady state period for a while until we get reactions/reviews boost. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-4) - 49589/554270 882456.93 2775 shows +3936

 

Increase is not bad today. Let us hope it continues to accelerate. There is still hope for this to have higher previews than F9. 

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-3) - 57338/682322 1008424.06 3645 shows +7749

 

At last it had a big spurt of shows and more important sales increased to reasonable levels. Now I am reasonably sure its beating previews of F9 and will open slightly bigger as well. 

[Porthos]

On 5/15/2023 at 2:12 AM, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18220	19902	1682	8.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

81

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	108.52		71	1550		0/96	13991/15541	9.97%		6409	26.24%		11.65m
JWD	77.65		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	15.34%		13.98m
BA	278.94		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	37.43%		21.20m
A2	69.73		142	2412		0/142	18926/21338	11.30%		8986	18.72%		11.85m
Wick 4	192.01		104	876		0/88	12454/13330	6.57%		5448	30.87%		17.09m
GOTG3	50.06		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		8363	20.11%		8.76m
TLM	145.00		55	1160		0/153	21416/22576	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     200/5583  [3.58% sold]
Matinee:    93/2373  [3.92% | 5.53% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.20493x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [16.63m]    
AtSV = 0.7915x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-18 [20.94m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18177	19919	1742	8.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	107.60		69	1619		0/96	13922/15541	10.42%		6409	27.18%		11.56m
JWD	78.68		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	15.89%		14.16m
BA	238.96		126	729		0/146	21338/22067	3.30%		4494	38.76%		18.16m
A2	69.46		96	2508		0/142	18830/21338	11.75%		8986	19.39%		11.81m
Wick 4	179.77		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	31.98%		16.00m
GOTG3	50.74		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		8363	20.83%		8.88m
TLM	142.09		66	1226		0/153	21353/22579	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       211/5583  [3.78% sold]
Matinee:    99/2373  [4.17% | 5.68% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.18764x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [16.39m]    
AtSV = 0.77746x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [20.56m]    
AtSV = 1.84462x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [18.03m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

On 5/15/2023 at 2:13 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	20858	22721	1863	8.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

129

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	304.41		36	612		0/80	11640/12252	5.00%		3951	47.15%		19.03m
JWD	62.22		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	16.99%		11.20m
BA	173.46		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	41.46%		13.18m
Scream VI	244.49		29	762		0/78	9098/9860	7.73%		3134	59.44%		13.94m
Wick 4	139.76		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	34.20%		12.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        265/5710  [4.64% sold]
Matinee:        46/621  [7.41% | 2.47% of all tickets sold]
3D:            225/4055  [5.55% | 12.08% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.87125x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [15.06m]    
TLM = 0.98366x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [13.57m]    
TLM = 0.58603x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [15.50m]    
TLM = 1.02974x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [10.07m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differen

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	20609	22614	2005	8.87%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	107
Total Seats Sold Today	142

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	309.41		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		3951	50.75%		19.34m
JWD	62.93		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	18.28%		11.33m
BA	178.86		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	44.62%		13.59m
Scream VI	248.14		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	63.98%		14.14m
Wick 4	144.04		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	36.80%		12.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       307/5603  [5.48% sold]
Matinee:        69/621  [11.11% | 3.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            225/3948  [5.70% | 11.22% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.93862x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [15.61m]    
TLM = 1.02691x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [14.17m]    
TLM = 0.59173x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [15.65m]    
TLM = 1.0571x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [10.33m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

On 5/15/2023 at 2:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	26350	28144	1794	6.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

159

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	105.34		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	48.01%		6.53m
Bats	29.80		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	15.26%		6.44m
TG:M	25.16		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	15.64%		4.97m
JWD	34.05		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	16.36%		6.13m
BA	95.12		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	39.92%		7.23m
Wick 4	77.83		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	32.93%		6.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	95.74		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	40.71%		7.80m
Fast X (adj)			155	1729		0/161	23052/24781	6.98%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     308/10367  [2.97% sold]
Matinee:     75/3600  [2.08% | 4.18% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	30813	32869	2056	6.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today	49
Total Seats Added Today	4725
Total Seats Sold Today	262

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	109.30		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	55.02%		6.78m
Bats	30.37		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	17.49%		6.56m
TG:M	26.52		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	17.92%		5.24m
JWD	33.91		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	18.75%		6.10m
BA	94.66		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	45.75%		7.19m
Wick 4	77.67		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	37.74%		6.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	95.73		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	46.65%		7.80m
Fast X (adj)			246	1975		0/210	27531/29506	6.69%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     393/13283  [2.96% sold]
Matinee:    99/4659  [2.12% | 4.82% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Have to agree with other trackers I've seen tonight; looks like Fast X is recovering.  Not breaking out, no.  But recovering is a damn sight better than it looked over the weekend.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Mulder]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18177	19919	1742	8.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	107.60		69	1619		0/96	13922/15541	10.42%		6409	27.18%		11.56m
JWD	78.68		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	15.89%		14.16m
BA	238.96		126	729		0/146	21338/22067	3.30%		4494	38.76%		18.16m
A2	69.46		96	2508		0/142	18830/21338	11.75%		8986	19.39%		11.81m
Wick 4	179.77		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	31.98%		16.00m
GOTG3	50.74		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		8363	20.83%		8.88m
TLM	142.09		66	1226		0/153	21353/22579	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       211/5583  [3.78% sold]
Matinee:    99/2373  [4.17% | 5.68% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.18764x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [16.39m]    
AtSV = 0.77746x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [20.56m]    
AtSV = 1.84462x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [18.03m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

Seems like the range is finally starting to come into place a bit. 11-16 million sounds safe right now but I'm sure that'll tighten more and more soon.

[vafrow]

Any word on when Flash and Elemental sales will start? We're now at the 30 day mark for the two of them. I imagine that it'll be soon for both.

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

Any word on when Flash and Elemental sales will start? We're now at the 30 day mark for the two of them. I imagine that it'll be soon for both.

Elemental is supposed to be today. I'm assuming in about 45 minutes or at noon EST. The Flash is unknown, but I would think sometime next week.

[vafrow]

40 minutes ago, Eric Toretto said:

Elemental is supposed to be today. I'm assuming in about 45 minutes or at noon EST. The Flash is unknown, but I would think sometime next week.

 

Thanks. I've seen a bit of promo for Elemental recently, so figured it'll be available soon.

 

I'm really unsure how Flash is going to go. It's such a tricky marketing campaign with the PR issues. I'm wondering if they go with a shorter ticket campaign, closer to when advance screenings and reviews happen. Let the reviews be the dialogue on the film.

[Eric Prime]

56 minutes ago, Eric Toretto said:

Elemental is supposed to be today. I'm assuming in about 45 minutes or at noon EST. The Flash is unknown, but I would think sometime next week.

 

[TwoMisfits]

Elemental sets at my Cinemark - small for Disney.  10 and 9 showings (so 2 screens each) - a few 3d showings, but no Dolby/PLF.  

 

I mean, it could have been worse - they could have single screen set it, and skipped all 3d.  But not a lot worse...

 

Edit to Add: And for final sets this weekend, Fast X weak presales has hurt it for PLFs...my local is splitting the PLF between Guardians and Fast X this weekend vs going all in for Fast X...

Edited May 16, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Eric Prime]

20 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	1188	23242	5.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 88

 

Comp - T-4

0.848x of F9 (6.02M)

0.437x of Jurassic World 3 (7.87M)

1.605x of Nope (10.27M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	1402	23242	6.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 214

 

Comp - T-3

0.866x of F9 (6.15M)

0.451x of Jurassic World 3 (8.11M)

1.484x of Nope (9.49M)

[M37]

On 5/9/2023 at 9:59 AM, M37 said:

Little Mermaid - Spend most of my time working through this one, given the apparent interest and greater uncertainty. Going to bury most of it under spoiler boxes so as not to clog up thread

 

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[ @Brainbug , please take your seat! 😉]

 

There has been significant discussion about the lack of good comps for Mermaid, but wanted to put some data and visuals behind. Here is data from Sacto, showing the ratio of final sales vs the T-14 checkpoint for most films tracked. Essentially same as growth rate, only displayed as multiplier rather than % increase, also on log scale. The ratios from other markets/samples will vary, but more importantly the tiers/grouping should be basically the same

 

 

Here there a a few very clearly defined groupings, or tiers:

 

0. LOL Tier - the only film here is Minions, which is a such a high end outlier - sales increased 17 fold in last two weeks (and the final is probably an under-count) that it should never be used as a comp for anything

 

1. Family* Tier - Included here are Nope and Venom 2, titles which had unusual circumstances regarding their sales window, and should be excluded as comps. But also two family films, Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Sonic, with some level of fanticipation; comps to be used sparingly or more as an upper bound, as they were earlier in the post-pandemic box office recovery, and with just ~$5M previews, are likely to overshoot when used against bigger releases

 

2. YMCA Tier (aka Young Man) - here we find the grouping of titles that usually skew towards younger men, often a diverse audience, a generally predictable pattern of sales. The likes of Fast 9, JW4, Black Adam, also JWD & Scream VI

 

3. Tentpole Tier - Where you find all of the $15M+ Thursday/$100M+ openings (except for JWD), and can be further divided into sub-tiers. The highest of those (so 3A) includes Avatar 2 and TGM, but which skewed to more mature/early buy audiences, and so took an unusual and flatter path to the the finish than most releases do or will

 

When we talk about comps and matching pace, its trying to guesstimate which of these tracks and tiers a given film's sales will follow. So which tier/grouping does Little Mermaid belong in?

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I think its reasonable to expect that Mermaid will not pace as high as Sonic towards the end - having more early presales and so a lower growth rate/T-14 multiplier - and on the lower end probably still finishes better than the top tentpoles like TGM and Avatar 2. Those seems like good upper and lower bounds for this exercise. But where in-between it falls is really not clear - there is a HUGE gap between T1 and T2 groupings and a smaller one between T2 and T3A, and having to use comps to try to match pace with a very different audience composition, adds another layer of uncertainty when trying to get to a $ value

 

Presuming Sacto stays on its (annoying) 60 tix/day pace, would wind up at ~1400 in sales at the T-14 checkpoint. Here's how that ticket number would roughly project out to a preview value given all possible comps (with some PSM adjustments)

Title	T-14 Multi	Preview
Minions	17.08	$37.06
Nope	10.89	$23.63
Ghostbusters	9.63	$20.90
Venom	8.93	$19.38
Sonic 2	7.84	$17.01
NTTD	5.40	$11.72
Black Adam	4.93	$10.70
Scream VI	4.78	$10.37
Dune	4.76	$10.33
John Wick 4	4.73	$10.26
Fast 9	4.58	$9.94
JWD	4.23	$9.18
Eternals	3.21	$6.97
Avatar 2	3.21	$6.97
GOTG3	2.93	$6.36
Batman	2.88	$6.25
TGM	2.83	$6.14

 

 

 

Even if it finishes somewhat like a tentpole, still can see $8/$9M as the floor for Thursday. Sonic at $17M is IMO not happening, but double digits is looking more and more likely, while landing somewhere in the teens is certainly possible.

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What about the IM and the OW?

 

Both TGM (excluding EA, 3-day) and Avatar 2 had an ~8x, while Minions, Ghostbusters and Lightyear were all around 10x. That seems to the be the approximate range, with the complicating factor of Memorial Day weekend typically producing a flatter weekend curve (bigger Thursday but also bigger Sunday).

Running some adjustments for that pattern and I came up with a range of 8-11x, with 9-10x the most likely outcome, but not having seen much data on weekend sales, don't know if that will hold up

 

Putting all of that together, come up with this Forecast Matrix

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.0	$8.9	$9.8	$10.6	$11.5	$12.4	$13.3	$14.1	$15.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.00	$64.0	$71.0	$78.0	$85.0	$92.0	$99.0	$106.0	$113.0	$120.0
	8.31	$66.5	$73.8	$81.0	$88.3	$95.6	$102.9	$110.1	$117.4	$124.7
	8.63	$69.0	$76.5	$84.1	$91.6	$99.2	$106.7	$114.3	$121.8	$129.4
	8.94	$71.5	$79.3	$87.1	$95.0	$102.8	$110.6	$118.4	$126.2	$134.1
	9.25	$74.0	$82.1	$90.2	$98.3	$106.4	$114.5	$122.6	$130.7	$138.8
	9.56	$76.5	$84.9	$93.2	$101.6	$110.0	$118.3	$126.7	$135.1	$143.4
	9.88	$79.0	$87.6	$96.3	$104.9	$113.6	$122.2	$130.8	$139.5	$148.1
	10.19	$81.5	$90.4	$99.3	$108.2	$117.2	$126.1	$135.0	$143.9	$152.8
	10.50	$84.0	$93.2	$102.4	$111.6	$120.8	$129.9	$139.1	$148.3	$157.5

 

 

The values and shading shown here are probably skewed too high, in that the bigger Thursday gets, the lower the IM likely goes. But something like $85-120M OW (3-day) feels roughly right, but that range and/or midpoint can certainly be argued up, down, or even more compact.

 

Should have a much better idea of what pace to expect to the finish by maybe T-7, but certainly T-4, but until then it's just more watching and hoping for some clarity

Time for a Little Mermaid Update? Before I dive in, just want to make something clear that perhaps I failed to do before: the process I use is mostly title blind, in that it is based almost exclusively on the trends in ticket sales, and I'm largely trying to avoid incorporating my own personal or even industry tracking expectations into the results; not determining how the data could/would arrive at an expected outcome. That may generate a forecast range and mid-point that is much higher or lower than the general consensus, but is very much supported by the data, even if I think its reasonable to expect the actual outcome to trend much closer to the high or low side of the range. However, the data set being used is limited, making it difficult to truly know what is a repeatable high or low end result vs true outlier exception, and in order to keep the width of the range limited and useful - particularly before T-7 in the sales cycle - somewhat subjective choices have to be made on the upper, lower, and midpoint expected outcomes

If you are unsure what all of that means, then please feel free to ignore what follows, because it will be open to misinterpretation

 

With that mouthful of caveats out of the way, what is does the sales data look like at T-10? Really freakin good - can certainly make a case that the Memorial Day weekend record set last year by TGM may be in jeopardy. We're still flying a bit blind with lack of a good comp, but the early sales volume is high enough that even if it were to pace a little below the JW4/BA/Scream VI grouping from this point, still likely gets to double digits for Thursday ... and the pace over the last week is slightly above that range, tracking closer to Sonic 2. Now as @Porthos has mentioned, there has been a marketing push over that period, so that very well may be inflated, but even Scream VI pace from here gets you to ~$12M (after adjusting the PSM)

 

As for the IM, the 10x range of Minions/Lightyear/Ghostbusters is still in play, and the Thu/Fri/Sat ratio of sales from latest Drafthouse updates are off the charts for releases of this size, well ahead of even Avatar 2, which had a 7.88x (and 5.74x by Sat). However, last MTC1 Friday count isn't as glowing, but pacing better than Thursday, so will have to see how that shakes out as release approaches. Still in the ~8-10x+ range, tentatively

 

Enough data to bump up the Thursday range somewhat, but unfortunately not enough clarity on trajectory yet to really start narrowing it down. Personally, based on the soft tracking numbers like Quorum and what Shawn & Co use, I again think this display overestimates the potential outcome, but also can't ignore the sales data in hand, until (if?) we start to see it level off a bit and find the groove it will follow to the finish

Thursday Forecast: $10-$16M

OW 3-day Forecast: $95-$130M

 

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$10.0	$11.0	$12.0	$13.0	$14.0	$15.0	$16.0	$17.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.00	$72.0	$80.0	$88.0	$96.0	$104.0	$112.0	$120.0	$128.0	$136.0
	8.31	$74.8	$83.1	$91.4	$99.8	$108.1	$116.4	$124.7	$133.0	$141.3
	8.63	$77.6	$86.3	$94.9	$103.5	$112.1	$120.8	$129.4	$138.0	$146.6
	8.94	$80.4	$89.4	$98.3	$107.3	$116.2	$125.1	$134.1	$143.0	$151.9
	9.25	$83.3	$92.5	$101.8	$111.0	$120.3	$129.5	$138.8	$148.0	$157.3
	9.56	$86.1	$95.6	$105.2	$114.8	$124.3	$133.9	$143.4	$153.0	$162.6
	9.88	$88.9	$98.8	$108.6	$118.5	$128.4	$138.3	$148.1	$158.0	$167.9
	10.19	$91.7	$101.9	$112.1	$122.3	$132.4	$142.6	$152.8	$163.0	$173.2
	10.50	$94.5	$105.0	$115.5	$126.0	$136.5	$147.0	$157.5	$168.0	$178.5