The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, eXtacy said:

Realistically where is Flash landing based on current pre-sales for opening weekend?

Looking like 9-12 previews and maybe 5.8-6.8 IM imo. Say 60-75ish. If things are ever going to turn around and head for more like 90 we’ll probably start to see it around tues.

[cooldude97]

6 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	2192	22296	9.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

204

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.088x) of Fast X

~$8.2M THUR Previews 

 

Comp pointing to $8M previews right now, but i feel like O-town overindexing a bit (Would probably bet on a number closer to $7M)

 

Pace is definitely picking up though 

If rotb keeps up this pace and gets decent/good reviews I definitely think around or slightly above Fast x OW is  possible 

Edited June 5, 2023 by cooldude97

[JD Asencio]

1 hour ago, cooldude97 said:

If rotb keeps up this pace and gets decent/good reviews I definitely think around or slightly above Fast x OW is  possible 

if somehow his OW ends up getting close to what I estimate Deadline I don't think ($70M but maybe $60M) it will be very curious, although it is very difficult

[JD Asencio]

Before they used to consider Quorum , which happened that I have not seen any updates on this thread anymore?

 

 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by JD Asencio

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-5]

1501/19437 [7.72% sold] [+144 tickets]

0.32496x the sales of JWD at T-5                 [5.85m]

0.89880x the sales of Black Adam at T-5      [6.83m]

0.72723x the sales of Wick 4 at T-5              [6.47m]

0.91804x the sales of Fast X at T-5               [6.89m]

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-4]

1696/19437 [8.73% sold] [+195 tickets]

0.32194x the sales of JWD at T-4                   [5.79m]

0.89993x the sales of Black Adam at T-4      [6.83m]

0.73579x the sales of Wick 4 at T-4               [6.55m]

0.94537x the sales of Fast X at T-4                [7.09m]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18747	19527	780	3.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

27

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.85		41	1630		0/171	22154/23784	6.85%		10966	7.11%		8.61m
FX	107.88		8	723		0/182	26977/27700	2.61%		8363	9.33%		8.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     134/6084  [2.20% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 7.05% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18735	19527	792	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	46.86		60	1690		0/171	22094/23784	7.11%		10966	7.22%		8.44m
FX	106.17		23	746		0/182	26954/27700	2.69%		8363	9.47%		7.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     137/6084  [2.25% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 6.94% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23838	25148	1310	5.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.20		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	11.14%		6.52m
BA	127.18		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	29.15%		9.67m
Shazam 2	297.73		11	440		0/109	17259/17699	2.49%		1663	78.77%		10.12m
Wick 4	102.02		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	24.05%		9.08m
AtSV	60.82		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	13.44%		10.55m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     218/5286  [4.12% sold]
Matinee:    22/2140  [1.03% | 1.68% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Looked over some of the comps that were out there, but felt they were unsuitable for the Sacto market for one reason or another.  Then I thought to myself, instead of using something like GOTG3 or even Eternals, as there really does seem to be a difference between how (live-action) MCU and DC films play here why not go in a different direction?  So I had the bright idea of looking at Shazam 2 as something of a counterbalance to The Batman, which is still a pretty terrible comp right now.

 

...

 

Eep!

 

...

 

Okay, Shazam 2 is a pretty rotten comp about ten different ways from Sunday (not the least of which the baggage surrounding it just by mentioning it in the first place).  But... Have to admit I was surprised at how low of a current comp it spat out.  Mind, Shazam 2 was in pre-sales for five more days at this point in time,  so that actually matters at this level of sales.  And I fully expect The Flash to have a strong ramp up at the end.

 

Still... Is what it is.

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23778	25148	1370	5.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.66		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	11.65%		6.62m
BA	127.56		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	30.49%		9.69m
Shazam 2	311.36		0	440		0/109	17259/17699	2.49%		1663	82.38%		10.59m
Wick 4	102.78		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	25.15%		9.15m
AtSV	60.97		93	2247		0/129	18539/20786	10.81%		9744	14.06%		10.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     237/5286  [4.48% sold]
Matinee:    22/2140  [1.03% | 1.61% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

 

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Still Don't Even Fucking Know - Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-47]

267/4146 [6.44% sold] (18 showtimes) [+40 tickets]

 

0.49171x Dune on Day 3                                    [2.51m]

0.54379x No Time to Die on Day 3                   [3.37m] (now includes all EA showings)

0.25847x Jurassic World Dominion on Day 3  [4.65m]

 

(once again, about half the sales today were at the indie one screen TrueIMAX theater)

 

Don't think comps are even useful given the disparity of pre-sale windows, but just to show you how crazy Nolanites can be, Oppenhemier sold another 68 tickets today (to bring the total to 335/4146 |   8.08%), this time 41 of those tickets being sold at the TrueIMAX theater.

 

This really is mimicking Dune in a lot of ways, right down to preference on which PLF screens to see it at.  Shame the pre-sale windows are so different, as it's gonna play merry havoc with the comps for a good long while.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Porthos

[YSLDC]

5 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Looking like 9-12 previews and maybe 5.8-6.8 IM imo. Say 60-75ish. If things are ever going to turn around and head for more like 90 we’ll probably start to see it around tues.

 

You're suggesting is could open below Black Adam with higher previews? 😄

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

You're suggesting is could open below Black Adam with higher previews? 😄

Of course it could—  you’re not going to do 8.8x with higher previews in summer! If it previewed to say 8.0 (higher than BA) then a weekend below BA would be a lock.   
 

But more likely still is that it will be low double digit previews and scrape by for the full weekend.

[YSLDC]

28 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Of course it could—  you’re not going to do 8.8x with higher previews in summer! If it previewed to say 8.0 (higher than BA) then a weekend below BA would be a lock.   
 

But more likely still is that it will be low double digit previews and scrape by for the full weekend.

 

I still believe in a big opening weekend because of reviews and word of mouth but if you're the one who'll be correct... Great job because you've been consistently saying this.  

[Cappoedameron]

It's gonna be interesting to see what the three AMC's around me decide to do this upcoming weekend because Transformers is selling like hot garbage in the premium theaters. Whereas Spider-verse has many 80% full capacity showings already in place the rest of the week leading to next weekend. 

 

TBH I'd give Spider-verse some of the premium showings especially if Transformers is barely selling.

[Firepower]

Opening below Black Adam would be embarassing.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-11	Jax	6	62	389	389	9,790	3.97%
		Phx	5	43	461	461	6,830	6.75%
		Ral	8	62	333	333	8,640	3.85%
	Total		19	167	1,183	1,183	25,260	4.68%
Transformers 6	T-4	Jax	5	55	76*	318	9,013	3.53%
		Phx	6	56	51*	326	10,104	3.23%
		Ral	8	52	55*	287	6,776	4.24%
	Total		19	163	182*	931	25,893	3.60%
Transformers EA	T-3	Jax	5	7	78*	354	1,216	29.11%
		Phx	1	1	8*	150	208	72.12%
		Ral	1	1	7*	67	101	66.34%
	Total		7	9	93*	571	1,525	37.44%

*New sales since Friday

 

Transformers + EA T-4 comps

 - NTTD Total - 1.204x (7.58m)

 - Ghostbusters Total - 1.87x (8.417m)

 - F9 - 1.21x (8.59m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .961x (8.46m)

 

Here are some T-3 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD EA - 2.239x (2.46m)

 - Creed III EA - missed

 - Top Gun 2 EA - .375x (1.73)

 - Black Phone EA - missed

 

Flash T-11 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.468x (12.92m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.64x (8.98m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.71x (11.26m)

 - F9 - 1.588x (11.27m)

 - Matrix 4 (Wed) - 1.07x (6.82m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-10	Jax	6	62	26	415	9,790	4.24%
		Phx	6	48	30	491	8,749	5.61%
		Ral	8	62	22	355	8,640	4.11%
	Total		20	172	78	1,261	27,179	4.64%
Transformers 6	T-3	Jax	5	55	45	363	9,013	4.03%
		Phx	6	56	56	382	10,104	3.78%
		Ral	8	52	26	313	6,776	4.62%
	Total		19	163	127	1,058	25,893	4.09%
Transformers EA	T-2	Jax	5	7	50	404	1,216	33.22%
		Phx	1	1	7	157	208	75.48%
		Ral	1	1	2	69	101	68.32%
	Total		7	9	59	630	1,525	41.31%

 

Transformers + EA T-3 comps

 - NTTD Total - missed

 - Ghostbusters Total - 1.811x (8.15m)

 - F9 - 1.166x (8.28m)

 - Dune - 1.432x (7.3m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .929x (8.175m)

 

Here are some T-2 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Creed III EA - 2.625x (2.625m)

 - Top Gun 2 EA - .393x (1.81)

 - Black Phone EA - 9.13x (3.65m)

 

Flash T-10 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.468x (12.92m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.76x (9.38m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.66x (11.06m)

 - F9 - 1.56x (11.08m)

 - Matrix 4 (Wed) - 1.065x (6.79m)

 - Eternals - .757x (7.19m)

[Coneilg93]

1 hour ago, Firepower said:

Opening below Black Adam would be embarassing.

It would be embarrassing and give Gunn another reason to nuke the DCEU lol 

[poweranimals]

24 minutes ago, Coneilg93 said:

It would be embarrassing and give Gunn another reason to nuke the DCEU lol 

And it would be 100% the correct thing to do. If great reviews and nostalgia can't save this movie, the universe needs to be burned to the ground.

[Starphanluke]

8 hours ago, cooldude97 said:

If rotb keeps up this pace and gets decent/good reviews I definitely think around or slightly above Fast x OW is  possible 

Nah, it's not hitting 60.

 

2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

It's gonna be interesting to see what the three AMC's around me decide to do this upcoming weekend because Transformers is selling like hot garbage in the premium theaters. Whereas Spider-verse has many 80% full capacity showings already in place the rest of the week leading to next weekend. 

 

TBH I'd give Spider-verse some of the premium showings especially if Transformers is barely selling.

Interestingly, almost all the AMC's in my city are keeping Spider-Verse on Dolby for the weekend, and giving Transformers IMAX.

[cooldude97]

18 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Nah, it's not hitting 60.

 

Got some pre-sale data to back up that claim?

[JpTransformers]

25 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Não, não está chegando a 60.

 

Curiosamente, quase todos os AMCs da minha cidade estão mantendo o Spider-Verse em Dolby no fim de semana e dando Transformers IMAX.

I noticed that this happens in some as well, on the other hand some that were less than 20% capacity on 05/31 are now almost full, like the AMC Glendora 12 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/3/2023 at 10:17 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 18402/35697 365979.30 178 shows

Previews - 33001/627076 622275.55 3359 shows

Friday - 25350/848328 466429.16 4321 shows

 

less than 3 days of data. So its definitely amping up. 

 

 

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 20199/35990 399864.33 179 shows

Previews(T-4) - 38769/626636 726567.85 3358 shows

Friday - 30623/847629 559856.21 4330 shows

 

MTC2

Wednesday - 11013/23800 173370.7 134 shows

Previews - 21118/388447 311070.45 2360 shows.   

 

This is almost 2 days of data. This is as of yesterday evening. Let us see how the final week pace goes.  

 

Edit: Added MTC2 which was earlier in the day. I will update to later today over there as well. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by keysersoze123