The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
189	3354	38172	8.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

121

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.439x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.604x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.5M THUR Previews 

 

(1.665x) of FAST X

~$12.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.530x) of TRANSFORMERS RoTB

~$13.5M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $11.1M Previews

 

NOTE: RoTB comp was (1.626x) yesterday ~$14.3M 

 

A steep decline especially for the ATSV comp, but @Menor Reborn is probably right about the Sunday bump. Let's see how it goes tomorrow 

The Transformers and Fast X comps do not seem that bad.  yes every movie is different but if those hold or get better 70 seems like a worst case unless we should be comparing to the CMB's which yikes hope not.

[21C]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The Transformers and Fast X comps do not seem that bad.  yes every movie is different but if those hold or get better 70 seems like a worst case unless we should be comparing to the CMB's which yikes hope not.

I mean... it is a CBM. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, 21C said:

I mean... it is a CBM. 

Thanks for letting me know I was not aware of that.....sigh dont know why i bother.

[Relevation]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	808	21579	3.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

80

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

unofficial comp pointing to $2.3M+

 

Elemental is on a nice little comeback. It's pace isn't too far off The Flash 👀 (Flash sold 41 more tickets than Elemental today)

Elemental beating the Flash OW club let’s go

 

 

Spoiler

Genuinely tho what if like $4M previews/14x IM for Elemental and $9M previews/6x IM for The Flash 

 

[M37]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

A steep decline especially for the ATSV comp

Keep in mind with the ATSV comp - not just yours but all of them for today - that T-4 was Memorial Day Eve, so sales numbers were naturally softer before catching back up in the ensuing days. Also, what was your ATSV T-4 slaes total? Don't have that on my sheet for some reason

 

37 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

My psyche (as a mod) can't deal with this thing "free falling" so I'm gonna need you to fudge the numbers! Puerto Rico, damn it! 

After I drop my T-4 update/analysis tomorrow

 

[GOGODanca]

Man if MI7 is really doing discounted tickets on tuesday then all the comps will be pointless 

[TheFlatLannister]

9 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The Transformers and Fast X comps do not seem that bad.  yes every movie is different but if those hold or get better 70 seems like a worst case unless we should be comparing to the CMB's which yikes hope not.

Those comps have looked good so far, but keep in mind it's losing ground to both comps. As I posted, RoTB comp pointed to $14M+ yesterday, now its $13.5M

 

FWIW, I'm at $11M+ previews ~$80M OW but that could slip lower depending on what other trackers report and how it does M-THUR

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Keep in mind with the ATSV comp - not just yours but all of them for today - that T-4 was Memorial Day Eve, so sales numbers were naturally softer before catching back up in the ensuing days. Also, what was your ATSV T-4 slaes total? Don't have that on my sheet for some reason

 

After I drop my T-4 update/analysis tomorrow

 

5548 seats sold as of T-4 ATSV 

 

p.s. It sold 628 seats from T-5 to T-4

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Those comps have looked good so far, but keep in mind it's losing ground to both comps. As I posted, RoTB comp pointed to $14M+ yesterday, now its $13.5M

 

FWIW, I'm at $11M+ previews ~$80M OW but that could slip lower depending on what other trackers report and how it does M-THUR

Yep I still feel it can go either way. Fingers crossed,  Also. Thanks for not not responding with a condescending remark unlike some other people. 

[XXR & Friends]

I think I'm most curious what the IM for Flash ends up being. Something starting with a 6 feels right... 

[21C]

14 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Elemental beating the Flash OW club let’s go

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Genuinely tho what if like $4M previews/14x IM for Elemental and $9M previews/6x IM for The Flash 

 

54 million for The Flash? Nah it can't go that bad.... can it? Idk that low seems as far-fetched to me as it crossing the 100 million mark. 65-85 still seems like the most reasonable outcomes.

Edited June 11, 2023 by 21C

[Rocketracoon]

31 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	808	21579	3.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

80

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

unofficial comp pointing to $2.3M+

 

Elemental is on a nice little comeback. It's pace isn't too far off The Flash 👀 (Flash sold 41 more tickets than Elemental today)

Will the Flash and Elemental weekend actually be close?

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Rocketracoon said:

Will the Flash and Elemental weekend actually be close?

Depends on your definition of “close”. I think Flash will open about 75% ahead of Elemental.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

Will the Flash and Elemental weekend actually be close?

No, probably a $40M difference 

 

elemental pace is good rn but there’s still a massive chasm between Flash and Elemental total sold tix 

[TheFlatLannister]

16 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

I think I'm most curious what the IM for Flash ends up being. Something starting with a 6 feels right... 

I was thinking in the 7s assuming the film resonates well with the GA and the “Keaton” older crowd argument comes to fruition 

[Menor the Destroyer]

38 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The Transformers and Fast X comps do not seem that bad.  yes every movie is different but if those hold or get better 70 seems like a worst case unless we should be comparing to the CMB's which yikes hope not.

Thing with both of these is they accelerated a lot in the final week, they both did have reviews drop fairly late which was a helpful catalyst for buzz even though neither got great reviews (but within expectations for their franchises).

[Relevation]

16 minutes ago, 21C said:

54 million for The Flash? Nah it can't go that bad.... can it? Idk that low seems as far-fetched to me as it crossing the 100 million mark. 65-85 still seems like the most reasonable outcomes.

I don’t actually think The Flash goes that low barring some ridiculous late game free fall, I’m more of the opinion that it finishes with like $70M give or take. Elemental meanwhile I’m honestly wondering if it ends up having a Transformers style late surge and opens to like $50M. The marketing has ramped up a ton, critical reception is improving, and it’s bound to be the most walkup heavy tentpole of the month

[El Gato]

On 6/7/2023 at 1:11 PM, Phoenix22 said:

 

I mean Joker did $1.1B in 2019 and The Batman $771M and #7 WW last year so not exactly 5 years of bombs.

 

I still have hope for the data to end up with previews of $12.5M and OW of $75M - $85M, Father's day could give it an extra bump but then the next weekend the drop could be bigger because of this extra factor. 

 

Two films out of how many though? 2/7 is not a good average at all, plus the fact that Batman/Joker are DC’s biggest guns and they’re also their own things. 
 

Think DC needs a decade long break. Make the fans miss the brand again

 

On 6/7/2023 at 1:17 PM, XXRptimus Primal said:

we have no tracking for it yet, of course, but the relative interest and awareness metrics make me think the OW will begin with a 4..

That would be great for such a small budget! Think it only needs to pass 300M to be successful. That’s doable imo.

 

Guess we’ll find out in a few weeks when tracking comes on board. If the numbers are low, well it’ll be another drama filled DC release! 
 

As for the Flash, hoping it does good, too bad 100M looks out of sight

[WebSurfer]

It could be $50 for Elemental and $70-$80 for the Flash this weekend.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by WebSurfer

[MattW]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

Man if MI7 is really doing discounted tickets on tuesday then all the comps will be pointless 

I don't recall any Tues/Wed opening movie giving discounts, I'm giving this a huge doubt.