The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Ledmonkey96]

early access

[vafrow]

On 6/26/2023 at 5:33 AM, vafrow said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-4

Milton, Ontario

 

Still very little movement. Down against all comps in a market already under indexing.

 

0.167 of Fast X for $1.25M

0.048 of ATSV for $0.8M

0.184 of Flash for $1.8M

0.318 of T:ROTB for $2.8M

0.318 of TLM for $3.3M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-2

Milton, Ontario

 

Sales remain so bad, that I find myself personally annoyed by it for some reason. 

 

0.111 of Fast X for $0.8M

0.033 of ATSV for $0.6M

0.130 of Flash for $1.3M

0.269 of T:ROTB for $2.4M

0.269 of TLM for $2.8M

 

Just ridiculously bad numbers. On a related note, the screen allocation for this weekend is out and not one film has more than one screen. I can't recall the last time that's happened, e

[vafrow]

Various updates

Milton, Ontario 

 

T-14 Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1

 

Sales are at a healthy 20 tickets for Tuesday previews. Better than Flash (10), or ROTB (7) at same point in time. Worse than ATSV (32). 

 

Barbie T-23

 

14 tickets sold. When tickets went on sale, my theatre wasn't available right away, so it didn't get the initial rush, as I'm guessing people went to the closest theatres that had it. But given that it recovered nicely.

 

It's hard to comp this to anything. Indy and Transformers had non existent sales this far out. I only started tracking TLM at T-16, and that underindexed at my theatre.

 

 

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	53	7470	8250	780	9.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	45.56		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		10966	7.11%		8.20m
BP2	13.67		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	4.64%		3.83m
FX	103.31		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		4122	18.92%		7.75m
Indy 5	93.30		44	836		0/124	18688/19524	4.28%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:      157/2968  [5.29% sold]
Matinee:          11/81  [13.58% | 1.41% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 383/776 [+7 tickets] [49.10% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    256/4100 [+2 tickets] [32.82% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           141/3374 [+11 tickets] [18.08% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	53	7450	8250	800	9.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	45.25		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		10966	7.30%		8.14m
BP2	13.77		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	4.76%		3.86m
FX	104.71		9	764		0/182	26961/27725	2.76%		4122	19.41%		7.85m
Indy 5	94.45		11	847		0/124	18674/19521	4.34%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       161/2968  [5.42% sold]
Matinee:          11/81  [13.58% | 1.38% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 391/776 [+8 tickets] [48.88% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    264/4100 [+8 tickets] [33.00% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           145/3374 [+4 tickets] [18.13% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	23412	24380	968	3.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

52

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	143.62		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		3737	25.90%		8.90m
JWD	39.92		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	8.83%		7.19m
Ava 2	35.92		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	10.77%		6.11m
Wick 4	89.05		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	17.77%		7.93m
FX	102.11		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	23.48%		7.66m
Indy 5	82.81		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:          158/7967  [1.98% sold]
Matinee:        19/1687  [1.13% | 1.96% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    164/5954  [2.75% | 16.94% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          61/457 [13.35% sold] [+0 tickets]
Mon:    479/2256 [21.23% sold] [+17 tickets]
Tue:    428/21667 [1.98% sold] [+35 tickets]

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	23341	24380	1039	4.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	143.71		49	723		0/135	20536/21259	3.40%		3737	27.80%		8.91m
JWD	40.04		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	9.47%		7.21m
Ava 2	37.12		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	11.56%		6.31m
Wick 4	90.27		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	19.07%		8.03m
FX	99.24		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	25.21%		7.44m
Indy 5	82.59		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:     174/7967  [2.18% sold]
Matinee:    23/1687  [1.36% | 2.21% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    180/5954  [3.02% | 17.32% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          65/457 [14.22% sold] [+4 tickets]
Mon:    491/2256 [21.76% sold] [+12 tickets]
Tue:    483/21667 [2.23% sold] [+55 tickets]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	96	11626	12626	1000	7.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

57

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	58.41		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		10966	9.12%		10.51m
Scream 6	296.74		4	337		0/65	7212/7549	4.46%		3134	31.91%		16.91m
FX	132.45		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		4122	24.26%		9.93m
TLM	126.58		59	790		0/154	21201/21991	3.59%		6561	15.24%		13.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     233/4245  [5.49% sold]
Matinee:    31/1757  [1.76% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:      303/422 [71.80% sold] [+24 tickets sold]
Thr:    697/12204 [5.71% sold] [+33 tickets sold]

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	96	11550	12632	1082	8.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

82

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	61.20		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		10966	9.87%		11.02m
Scream 6	310.03		12	349		0/65	7200/7549	4.62%		3134	34.52%		17.67m
FX	141.62		9	764		0/182	26961/27725	2.76%		4122	26.25%		10.62m
TLM	127.44		59	849		0/154	21799/22648	3.75%		6561	16.49%		13.13m
AtSV	85.06		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	11.10%		14.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     259/4251  [6.09% sold]
Matinee:    38/1759  [2.16% | 3.51% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:     308/422 [72.99% sold] [+5 tickets sold]
Thr:    774/12210 [6.34% sold] [+77 tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	21009	23534	2525	10.73%

 

Total Showings Added Today	24
Total Seats Added Today	2825
Total Seats Sold Today	258

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	134.24		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	67.57%		8.32m
JWD	41.65		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	23.03%		7.50m
BA	116.25		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	56.19%		8.84m
Wick 4	95.39		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	46.35%		8.49m
FX	122.81		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	61.26%		9.21m
TLM	71.39		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	38.48%		7.35m
Flash	104.64		217	2413		0/193	23824/26237	9.20%		5327	47.40%		10.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       519/7294  [7.12% sold]
Matinee:    230/2168  [10.61% | 9.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	21180	24072	2892	12.01%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	11
Total Net Seats Added Today	538
Total Net Seats Sold Today	367

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	129.69		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	77.39%		8.04m
JWD	42.16		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	26.37%		7.59m
BA	112.57		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	64.35%		8.56m
Wick 4	90.40		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	53.08%		8.05m
FX	121.36		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	70.16%		9.10m
TLM	72.81		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	44.08%		7.50m
Flash	102.48		409	2822		0/197	23670/26492	10.65%		5327	54.29%		9.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        595/6838  [8.70% sold]
Matinee:    258/2168  [11.90% | 8.92% of all tickets sold]

[M37]

5 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

we hear presales for Dial of Destiny stood at under $6M last Friday, ahead of No Time to Die; that total is not too far from John Wick: Chapter 4 and Fast X, which had respective stateside debuts of $73.8M and $67M.

That report matches the data seen in here, but with double the length of presale period of NTTD, and not nearly the pace (and probably lower walk-up rate) of JW4 and Fast X. Wick had 56% of its audience in 18-34 age bucket vs 39% for NTTD, and expect Indy will wind up closer to the latter both in demo split and OW gross

 

Forgot that NTTD also opened to $55M, and frankly that's the approximate range MI7 looks to be heading towards for its 3 day weekend as well. Fallout was 82% over 25...

 

Guess that mid-$50M range is just the baseline level now for the older skewing action franchise films? (other than TGM, which makes its over-performance even more impressive)

[ZackM]

On 6/26/2023 at 8:29 AM, ZackM said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	1	16	0	7
Seats Added	701	130	3,148	0	1,815
Seats Sold	3,895	2,587	2,348	1,776	1,761
6/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	424	2,530	52,004	514,484	10.11%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	9	24	56
ATP	Gross
$18.29	$951,153

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	299	199	3	1	16
Seats Added	41,966	28,829	701	130	3,148
Seats Sold	8,012	5,745	3,895	2,587	2,348
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	3,028	65,761	585,279	11.24%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	10	35	95
ATP	Gross
$18.00	$1,183,698

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[ZackM]

On 6/26/2023 at 10:03 AM, ZackM said:

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	1,295
Seats Added	704	254,435
Seats Sold	910	34,030
6/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	423	1,298	34,940	255,139	13.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	14	33	59
ATP	Gross
$19.80	$691,812

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	1	3	1,295
Seats Added	633	120	704	254,435
Seats Sold	1,076	899	910	34,030
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	423	1,302	36,915	255,892	14.43%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	6	15	35	63
ATP	Gross
$19.73	$728,333

[ZackM]

On 6/26/2023 at 8:36 AM, ZackM said:

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	9	2	38	136	1,687
Seats Added	1,215	269	4,297	24,285	281,047
Seats Sold	1,611	1,571	3,515	3,809	17,808
6/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	410	1,872	28,314	311,113	9.10%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	11	25	53
ATP	Gross
$17.13	$485,019
Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days
6/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	15,828	20,668	76.58%
ATP	Gross
$21.46	$339,669

 

Barbie surging 23 days out is fun.

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	30	9	2	38
Seats Added	0	3,440	1,215	269	4,297
Seats Sold	2,099	1,805	1,611	1,571	3,515
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	411	1,902	32,218	314,553	10.24%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	14	34	63
ATP	Gross
$17.02	$548,350

 

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	15,828	20,668	76.58%
ATP	Gross
$21.46	$339,669

 

[ZackM]

On 6/26/2023 at 8:32 AM, ZackM said:

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	5	2,703
Seats Added	301	1,943	551,635
Seats Sold	729	780	24,792
6/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	424	2,711	26,301	553,879	4.75%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	4	12
ATP	Gross
$19.16	$503,927
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
6/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	204	214	17,888	52,528	34.05%
ATP	Gross
$21.51	$384,771

 

Nice growth for MI7 too.

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	3	5	2,703
Seats Added	0	0	301	1,943	551,635
Seats Sold	1,646	1,340	729	780	24,792
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	2,711	29,287	553,879	5.29%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	6	14
ATP	Gross
$19.10	$559,382

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	204	214	19,185	52,528	36.52%
ATP	Gross
$21.43	$411,135

[emoviefan]

48 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Nice growth for MI7 too.

Fingers crossed it continues. No reason for it not too. 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	3	5	2,703
Seats Added	0	0	301	1,943	551,635
Seats Sold	1,646	1,340	729	780	24,792
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	2,711	29,287	553,879	5.29%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	6	14
ATP	Gross
$19.10	$559,382

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
6/27/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	204	214	19,185	52,528	36.52%
ATP	Gross
$21.43	$411,135

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Barbie T-23: 52.22% Awareness

Cobweb T-23: 13.31% Awareness

Bottoms T-65: 14.54% Awareness

Expend4bles T-86: 29.84% Awareness

Anyone But You T-170: 13.7% Awareness

Ghostbusters Afterlife 2 T-175: 32.64% Awareness

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-2: 59.15% Awareness

Final Awareness: 47% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 12% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-2: 31.07% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Talk to Me T-30: 18.84% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Meg 2: The Trench T-37: 32.92% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-2	Jax	6	69	91	587	11,023	5.33%
		Phx	6	44	111	432	8,381	5.15%
		Ral	8	62	78	627	8,806	7.12%
	Total		20	175	280	1,646	28,210	5.83%
Ruby Gillman	T-2	Jax	5	22	3	19	2,326	0.82%
		Phx	6	24	5	15	2,236	0.67%
		Ral	7	27	5	27	2,563	1.05%
	Total		18	73	13	61	7,125	0.86%

 

Ruby Gillman T-2 comps

 - Bad Guys - .508x (585k)

 - Super Pets - .288x (633k)

 - Elemental  .167x (400k)

 - Lyle Lyle - 1.109x (638k)

 - Paws of Fury - .897x (453k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .421x (551k)

 - Encanto - .252x (378k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .587x (528k)

 - Strange World - 1.017x (813k)

 

Size adjusted average - 635k

 

Indiana Jones T-2 comps

 - F9 - .951x (6.76m)

 - JWD - .325x (5.76m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.509x (6.26m)

 - Uncharted - 2.12x (7.83m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .834x (7.34m)

 - The Lost City (Total) - 2.93x (9.52m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.96m

 

I'm hesitant to put a prediction out for Indiana Jones because I still think it will have a big ramp up on Wed/Thu.  3-day growth is right around most of the comps so I think that's a good sign for 7m to happen if that continues.  Holding out hope that it gets closer to 8m though.

 

Solid day.  Above still applies... 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-1	Jax	6	74	89	676	11,452	5.90%
		Phx	6	52	82	514	9,165	5.61%
		Ral	8	67	94	721	9,155	7.88%
	Total		20	193	265	1,911	29,772	6.42%
Ruby Gillman	T-1	Jax	5	22	13	32	2,326	1.38%
		Phx	6	24	7	22	2,236	0.98%
		Ral	7	27	10	37	2,563	1.44%
	Total		18	73	30	91	7,125	1.28%

 

Ruby Gillman T-1 comps

 - Bad Guys - .599x (688k)

 - Super Pets - .307x (676k)

 - Elemental  .19x (455k)

 - Lyle Lyle - .958x (551k)

 - Paws of Fury - .919x (464k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .52x (681k)

 - Encanto - .294x (440k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .85x (765k)

 - Strange World - .968x (774k)

 

Size adjusted average - 662k

 

Indiana Jones T-1 comps

 - F9 - .876x (6.22m)

 - JWD - .316x (5.6m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.364x (5.66m)

 - Uncharted - 2.046x (7.57m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .766x (6.74m)

 - The Lost City (Total) - 2.58x (8.39m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.55m

 

Like last week, here are the movies with the closest growth rates over the final week.

 

Ruby Gillman - similar growth pattern comps (of PG movies)

 - Paws of Fury - .919x (464k)

 - Strange World - .968x (774k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .85x (765k)

 

Size adjusted average - 625k

 

 

Other than Paws of Fury, the comps mostly have a similar shape that would likely put previews around 550k.  Expecting around 120 total for T-0.

 

Indiana Jones - similar growth pattern comps (of action/adventure movies)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .254x (4.9m)

 - Free Guy - 4.73x (10.41m)

 - Avatar 2 - .31x (5.26m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.02m

 

 

This shows a pretty clear trend with almost all of the comps growing between 39% and 43% the final day.  That would put Indy at ~2,704 sales tomorrow morning and the comps pointing to 6.25m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/27/2023 at 10:11 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Insidious 5	T-9	Jax	5	20	1	14	2,037	0.69%
		Phx	6	18	8	55	2,820	1.95%
		Ral	7	24	3	27	2,829	0.95%
	Total		18	62	12	96	7,686	1.25%
Joy Ride	T-9	Jax	5	17	0	4	1,591	0.25%
		Phx	5	17	3	19	1,484	1.28%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	2,099	0.33%
	Total		17	58	3	30	5,174	0.58%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	3	0	1	297	0.34%
		Phx	1	1	0	1	110	0.91%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	88	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	2	495	0.40%
	T-8	Jax	5	6	0	7	562	1.25%
		Phx	6	6	0	14	747	1.87%
		Ral	7	7	3	9	556	1.62%
	Total		18	19	3	30	1,865	1.61%
Sound of Freedom	T-6	Jax	5	25	47	495	1,882	26.30%
		Phx	6	45	47	592	4,159	14.23%
		Ral	7	23	23	484	2,303	21.02%
	Total		18	93	117	1,571	8,344	18.83%

 

Sound of Freedom T-6 comps

 - Jesus Revolution EA - 1.405x (3.32m)

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - 1.202x (3.97m)

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 

I'm not sure if these are counted as previews... some theaters are starting shows at 11am.  If these keep rising, we could see it get up to 4.5-5m for Monday

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-9 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .422x (844k)

 - 80 for Brady - .681x (511k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.067x (1.03m)

 - Violent Night - .861x (947k)

 

Size adjusted average - 836k

 

Insidious 5 T-9 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .542x (1.63m)

 - Scream VI - .128x (729k)

 - Nope - .204x (1.3m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Halloween Ends - .249x (1.34m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.46m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Insidious 5	T-8	Jax	5	20	6	20	2,037	0.98%
		Phx	6	18	10	65	2,820	2.30%
		Ral	7	24	1	28	2,829	0.99%
	Total		18	62	17	113	7,686	1.47%
Joy Ride	T-8	Jax	5	17	1	5	1,591	0.31%
		Phx	5	17	5	24	1,484	1.62%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	2,099	0.33%
	Total		17	58	6	36	5,174	0.70%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-3	Jax	3	3	1	2	297	0.67%
		Phx	1	1	0	1	110	0.91%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	88	0.00%
	Total		5	5	1	3	495	0.61%
	T-7	Jax	5	6	0	7	562	1.25%
		Phx	6	6	0	14	747	1.87%
		Ral	7	7	5	14	556	2.52%
	Total		18	19	5	35	1,865	1.88%
Sound of Freedom	T-5	Jax	5	28	43	538	2,149	25.03%
		Phx	6	51	50	642	5,687	11.29%
		Ral	7	28	69	553	2,749	20.12%
	Total		18	107	162	1,733	10,585	16.37%

 

Sound of Freedom T-5 comps

 - Jesus Revolution EA - 1.522x (3.59m)

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - missed

 - I Heard the Bells - 4.322x (3.34m)

 

I'm not sure if these are counted as previews... some theaters are starting shows at 11am.  If these keep rising, we could see it get up to 4.5-5m for Monday

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-8 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .493x (987k)

 - 80 for Brady - .881x (661k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.552x (1.28m)

 - Violent Night - .892x (981k)

 

Size adjusted average - 951k

 

Insidious 5 T-8 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .595x (1.78m)

 - Scream VI - .142x (809k)

 - Nope - .228x (1.46m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Halloween Ends - .274x (1.48m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.087x (1.58m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.83m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/27/2023 at 10:20 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-14	Jax	6	69	12	153	10,964	1.40%
		Phx	6	58	6	111	11,155	1.00%
		Ral	8	54	-5	140	8,344	1.68%
	Total		20	181	13	404	30,463	1.33%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-12	Jax	3	3	0	35	418	8.37%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	15	111	13.51%
	Total		6	6	0	52	892	5.83%
	T-13	Jax	5	7	9	124	1,407	8.81%
		Phx	1	1	6	44	410	10.73%
		Ral	2	2	0	66	412	16.02%
	Total		8	10	15	234	2,229	10.50%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-14 comps

 - F9 - 1.21x (8.59m)

 - John Wick 4 - .96x (8.52m)

 - Top Gun (Total) - .267x (5.15m)

 - Dune - 1.64x (8.38m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 2.02x (9.11m)

 - NTTD (Total) - 1.46x (9.21m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.86m

 

Changing up some of my comps.  Got rid of the CBMs (Black Widow/Shazam 2) and the more GA friendly (JWD/Avatar 2).   Expecting these comps to drop some still and looking for something in the 7.5-8m range for now. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-13	Jax	6	69	6	159	10,964	1.45%
		Phx	6	58	21	132	11,155	1.18%
		Ral	8	54	30	170	8,344	2.04%
	Total		20	181	57	461	30,463	1.51%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-11	Jax	3	3	1	36	418	8.61%
		Phx	2	2	4	6	363	1.65%
		Ral	1	1	0	15	111	13.51%
	Total		6	6	5	57	892	6.39%
	T-12	Jax	5	7	9	133	1,407	9.45%
		Phx	1	1	2	46	410	11.22%
		Ral	2	2	6	72	412	17.48%
	Total		8	10	17	251	2,229	11.26%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-13 comps

 - F9 - 1.2x (8.53m)

 - John Wick 4 - .97x (8.61m)

 - Top Gun (Total) - .274x (5.29m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - missed

 - NTTD (Total) - 1.49x (9.41m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.07x (??)

 

Size adjusted average - 8.28m

[M37]

Kinda bored with Indy (sub-$8M Thursday incoming ) and the other releases over next two weeks, so spent some time trying to math out an IM range for MI7 off its unusual Wed opening and triple-dip preview shows

 

First, looked at bigger releases that had an EA day of PLF shows, comparing total previews to True Opening Day:

• Batman = $21.6 / $56.6 = 1.62x
• TGM = $19.26 / $52.0 = 1.70x
• Trans-ROTB = $8.8 / $25.65 = 1.91x

Of those 3, Batman was March, TGM was a holiday weekend, and Transformers had a decent family draw that MI7 shouldn't replicate, but also mid-week (albeit summer) OD vs Fri, so something in the 1.6-1.7x or so range seems about right

 

Then looked at mid-week openings: Mario & Air, Thanksgiving week, and previous 4th of July mid-week releases like Terminator: Genesis and Far From Home. Won't list all the data, but generally these films made 4.5-5.5 times their True Wed total from Thursday through Sunday, with outliers explainable by circumstance like holidays or lack of previews, or 5.5-6.5x Wed for the 5 day (not including previews)

 

Putting it all together: [Previews x (1.6-1.7)] x (5.5-6.5) + 1 = roughly a 10-12x IM from preview to 5-day opening total. So the approximate ~$7M preview comp values** currently out there would lead to $70-$85M 5-day full opening, Something like $7/$11/$10/$14/$19/$14 = $77M ($47M OW)

 

**The one caveat is that previews will likely come in lower than comp values due to Discount Tuesday pricing, but that could serve to boost the IM off the $ value (so like 11-13x), not necessarily alter the pattern/ratio of admissions across the week

Edited June 28, 2023 by M37

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/27/2023 at 10:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-23	Jax	5	41	10	121	5,024	2.41%
		Phx	6	29	27	220	4,876	4.51%
		Ral	8	45	38	260	5,631	4.62%
	Total		19	115	75	601	15,531	3.87%
Barbie (EA)	T-22	Jax	2	3	7	106	319	33.23%
		Phx	1	1	0	141	208	67.79%
		Ral	2	2	2	125	190	65.79%
	Total		5	6	9	372	717	51.88%
Oppenheimer	T-23	Jax	6	23	25	215	4,698	4.58%
		Phx	6	26	17	229	4,969	4.61%
		Ral	8	22	9	232	2,837	8.18%
	Total		20	71	51	676	12,504	5.41%

 

Oppenheimer T-23 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .337x (6.06m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .234x (4.09m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .085x (3.05m)

 - Nope - 3.101x (19.85m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.55x

 - Barbie (Total) - .695x

 

Not many good comps this far out

 

Barbie (Total) T-23 comps

 - Nope - 4.463x (28.57m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.439x

 - JWD (Total) - .485x (8.73m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-22	Jax	6	43	25	146	5,243	2.78%
		Phx	6	29	9	229	4,876	4.70%
		Ral	8	45	19	279	5,631	4.95%
	Total		20	117	53	654	15,750	4.15%
Barbie (EA)	T-21	Jax	2	3	3	109	319	34.17%
		Phx	1	1	2	143	208	68.75%
		Ral	2	2	0	125	190	65.79%
	Total		5	6	5	377	717	52.58%
Oppenheimer	T-22	Jax	6	24	-11	204	4,739	4.30%
		Phx	6	26	7	236	4,969	4.75%
		Ral	8	22	11	243	2,837	8.57%
	Total		20	72	7	683	12,545	5.44%

 

Oppenheimer T-22 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .336x (6.04m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .943x (13.87m)

 - Avatar 2 - .573x (9.74m)

 - Scream VI - 1.658x (9.45m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.44x

 - Barbie (Total) - .662x

 

Size adjusted comps - 10.3m

 

Barbie (Total) T-22 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .865x (14.7m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.51x

 - JWD (Total) - .507x (9.12m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 2.794x (12.02m)

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - 1.104x (34.99m)

 - Minions 2 - 10.52x (113.09m)

 

 

I will not be held responsible for any unreasonable expectations.