The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Relevation]

1 minute ago, DisposedData said:

Barbie feels like a mini Mario with these comps 

Spoiler

Tbh how “mini” are we talking here because I’m on the $120M OW train

 

[TheFlatLannister]

Hopefully Mi7 sees a substantial jump in today's run

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/27/2023 at 4:51 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Indiana Jones (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	140	268	1712	23127	7.4

 

Ruby Gillman (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	53	9	35	4634	0.76

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Indiana Jones (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	144	270	1982	23658	8.38

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	15.77
3-Day:	65.17

 

Ruby Gillman (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	57	14	49	5134	0.95

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	40
3-Day:	113.04

 

These really early previews are annoying, but I think I'll be able to check at T-1 hour for both of them.

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

  Hide contents

Tbh how “mini” are we talking here because I’m on the $120M OW train

 

Most are still in denial even now we have data.

Anyway it has less premium screens than Mario so if the comparison is made by tickets sold the difference can be bigger than how It seems on money made. Right now i would say 90-100M

Edited June 28, 2023 by vale9001

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	202	9738	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(2.040x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.2M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	242	9738	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.940x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.1M THUR Previews

 

Should be enough for $20M+ OW so I agree with @el sid

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1104	13845	7.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.871x) of Fast X

~$6.5M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1140	13845	8.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.894x) of Fast X

~$6.7M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	1032	37608	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	553	2148	25.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 31 sold / 291 seats  (+0)

MTC2 = 31 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

COMPS

T-14

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.801x) of RoTB

$7.0M TUES

 

(0.533x) of INDY 5

???

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	1137	37608	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

105

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	562	2148	26.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 36 sold / 291 seats  (+5)

MTC2 = 31 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

COMPS

T-13

*Excludes any EA

(0.834x) of RoTB

~$7.3M TUES

 

(0.569x) of INDY 5

???

 

Finally a great day. Post social media embargo definitely helped 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
131	1711	24279	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1277	1747	73.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

5

 

 

COMPS

T-23

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.730x) of RoTB

~$15.2M THUR Previews

 

(1.349x) of Fast X

~$10.1M THUR Previews

 

(0.751x) of ATSV

~$13.1M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $12.8M THUR Previews 

 

Not sure about the IM but I'm confident this is going over $10M previews 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
131	1759	24279	7.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1301	1747	74.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

5

 

 

COMPS

T-22

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.752x) of RoTB

~$15.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.380x) of Fast X

~$10.3M THUR Previews

 

(0.727x) of ATSV

~$12.6M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $12.8M THUR Previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
110	174	17826	0.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.169x) of ELEMENTAL

~$400K THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
110	215	17826	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.171x) of ELEMENTAL

~$410K THUR Previews

 

Should be around $4M-$5M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
249	3043	50117	6.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

237

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.755x) of THE FLASH

~$7.3M THUR Previews

 

(1.221x) of FAST X

~$9.2M THUR Previews

 

(0.651x) of TLM

~$6.7M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $7.7M

 

Decreased against every comp. I'm not seeing $60M+ OW like Deadline reported. More like $50M-$55M with a small chance at a number starting with 4 (depending on IM) 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
253	3539	50889	6.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

496

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.762x) of THE FLASH

~$7.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.192x) of FAST X

~$8.9M THUR Previews

 

(0.664x) of TLM

~$6.8M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $7.7M

 

Looks like $7.5M THUR 

 

Probably low $50Ms OW and will probably avoid anything with a 4

[TalismanRing]

7 hours ago, Tinalera said:

First I have literally of this movie-I must be out of the loop here.

 

When I see Haunted Mansion I think didn't that Eddie Murphy dud come out not long ago.  Check and it's been 20 years...

 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal Local  (6pm)

 

INDY 5

 

WED:  76/1861

 

Jurassic 6: $8.34
D&D: $7.93
Trans Beasts: $9.62m

 

Avg: $8.3m

 

 

Caveat.  Not a lot of good recent (kind of) comps since I tossed Bond and Maverick comps as two ridiculous extremes -   Bond -  $3.45m.  Maverick  - $20.1m

 

Ruby - 7 tickets - a 40% increase from yesterday! (LOL)  I just can't

 

 

[filmlover]

 

Also projecting $8-9M for Teenage Kraken (budget is $70M apparently).

[emoviefan]

6 hours ago, Shawn said:

 

Mainly a reply for @emoviefan here, but...

 

First and foremost, I think it's important to not get too emotionally involved in box office numbers. If these are movies you're personally excited for, then lean on that. I know from personal experience how challenging that can be, but at the end of the day, a bunch of internet conjecture and analysis paralysis can be very toxic (even when it's not intended to be) for your own sense of real world joy and getting that joy from movies.

 

That said, it's also crucial to keep in mind that all of these movies have different sets of variables to look at on the data side. Indiana Jones is a five-day opener on a holiday that has a repeated history of being... well, weird, for lack of a better word. Sometimes it helps certain movies more than it helps others. Mission: Impossible is cornering a similar audience with a non-traditional weekend opening, and it already faces Oppenheimer entering the pre-sale phase before it.

 

Between those three movies, tracking is not going to be apples-to-apples with much else because they cater to older audiences and they're essentially being asked to pre-buy tickets for several movies at the same time. In this economy? That's a big ask, and it makes word of mouth even more important. That's going to affect long-term trends and short-term trends both when we're talking about pre-sales.

 

As with all forms of predicting, I would not take any kind of tracking as gospel until closer to release, and even then, context has to be applied whether that's looking at growth rates, decline rates, sales beyond just preview shows, market variance, etc.

 

But beyond all of that, I go back to just letting the data be the data and separate it from everything else. It's easy to get sucked into the doom (or hype) rollercoasters that often happen in this thread and this entire forum. Sometimes they're predictively accurate, but sometimes they're not. That's always happened and will always happen. Ultimately, though, it's not important and it's constantly changing like a moving target. Just go and enjoy the movies on your own terms.

Yes. Thank you for responding.  A very measured way of looking at it.  Not the doom and gloom of some people around here and I keep telling myself not to get sucked down their rabbit hole.  At the end day enjoying the movies is the most important thing. Nothing I can do about the box office except my own contribution.

[tonytr87]

Fallout was the highest OW for the franchise and even that only grossed 61 mil. Anything over that for DR will be impressive in my book. 

[excel1]

Nobody wants to jinx anything but if barbie is any good, pretty obvious this is the next MAJOR post-Covid breakout. $100m opening starting to look very probable. 

 

Barbie + Oppenheimer may combine for $175m opening weekend which would an epic jolt for theaters. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by excel1

[WrathOfHan]

Oppenheimer (Thursday)

TOTAL SALES: 2,886/4,770 (60.5% of all tickets sold)

PLF SHARE: 96.81% (2,794; this percentage includes standard 70mm)

IMAX Laser: 1,219

IMAX 70mm: 931

70mm: 634

Standard: 92

 

Theater Breakdown:

Spoiler

Lincoln Square:

6:00PM 70mm: 325/362

7:00PM IMAX 70mm: 475/475

10:00PM 70mm:  309/362

11:30PM IMAX 70mm: 456/475

Total: 1,575/1,674

 

Empire:

5:00PM IMAX: 215/321

6:00PM: 12/158 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

7:00PM: 7/134

8:00PM: 11/146

9:00PM IMAX: 262/321

10:00PM 3/158 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

Total: 510/1,238

 

34th Street:

5:00PM IMAX: 146/219

6:00PM: 27/120

9:00PM IMAX: 168/219

10:00PM: 0/120

Total: 341/678

 

Kips Bay:

5:00PM IMAX: 194/338

6:30PM: 24/174

9:00PM IMAX: 234/338

10:30PM: 6/174

11:30PM: 2/156

Total: 460/1,180

 

Putting the standard sales in perspective, Oppenheimer's standard total is 55% of Mission's current sales and 28.9% of Indy's sales the night before previews. With IMAX, Oppenheimer 51.66% ahead of Indy the night before and 116% ahead of Mission ~two weeks out. 

[ringedmortality]

Anyone gonna track Haunted Mansion?

[filmlover]

Barbie/Oppenheimer combining for a $125M+ opening would automatically make catapult them towards the top of the "success story" list of the summer.

 

I just looked around at sales for Haunted Mansion and it's actually sold a decent number of tickets for a movie that's still a month away.

[excel1]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Oppenheimer (Thursday)

TOTAL SALES: 2,886/4,770 (60.5% of all tickets sold)

PLF SHARE: 96.81% (2,794; this percentage includes standard 70mm)

IMAX Laser: 1,219

IMAX 70mm: 931

70mm: 634

Standard: 92

 

Theater Breakdown:

  Reveal hidden contents

Lincoln Square:

6:00PM 70mm: 325/362

7:00PM IMAX 70mm: 475/475

10:00PM 70mm:  309/362

11:30PM IMAX 70mm: 456/475

Total: 1,575/1,674

 

Empire:

5:00PM IMAX: 215/321

6:00PM: 12/158 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

7:00PM: 7/134

8:00PM: 11/146

9:00PM IMAX: 262/321

10:00PM 3/158 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

Total: 510/1,238

 

34th Street:

5:00PM IMAX: 146/219

6:00PM: 27/120

9:00PM IMAX: 168/219

10:00PM: 0/120

Total: 341/678

 

Kips Bay:

5:00PM IMAX: 194/338

6:30PM: 24/174

9:00PM IMAX: 234/338

10:30PM: 6/174

11:30PM: 2/156

Total: 460/1,180

 

 

Putting the standard sales in perspective, Oppenheimer's standard total is 55% of Mission's current sales and 28.9% of Indy's sales the night before previews. With IMAX, Oppenheimer 51.66% ahead of Indy the night before and 116% ahead of Mission ~two weeks out. 

 

Nolan's power in liberal cities is incredible.